The Golden Report

10 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
13 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
20 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

TOP STORY: US TO RESUME PEACE TALKS WITH TALIBAN- previous talks had collapsed in December- from The Washington Post’s Karen DeYoung

“A tentative U.S.-Taliban deal, including the transfer of five Afghan detainees from the Guantanamo Bay prison to Qatar and an insurgent renunciation of international terrorism, collapsed in December when Karzai refused to go along with it.

There have been no meetings with the insurgents since then. Although all parties have publicly said that they agree to one element of the deal — the opening of a Taliban office in Qatar — “we need now to make it real,” one official said.

Prime Minister Hamad bin Jasim al-Thani, for the first time acknowledging Qatar’s support for the arrangement, said Wednesday that his government welcomed “any opportunity” to defuse tension in the region. Thani spoke after a meeting with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The administration, which has said that negotiations must be “Afghan-led,” insists that its talks with the Taliban are only a preliminary effort to build confidence before actual negotiations over Afghanistan’s future can begin between the insurgents and the Karzai government.

One hurdle is that the Taliban prefers to talk to the United States and is “not willing to sit down with the Afghan government’,” one official said. “Our job is to see if we can break through that door.” Karzai has been under pressure from domestic opponents of negotiations to stand firm against the talks.

IN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT-  a judge has ordered the halt to the release of any further prisoners pardoned by Governor Haley Barbour, in his final days in office. Barbour has pardoned 200 prisoners, including 14 convicted murderers. Today, the Mississippi Attorney General said that the Governor’s actions threatened public safety. From CNN-

“He’s tried to rule the state like Boss Hogg and he didn’t think the law applied to him,” Hood told CNN’s Anderson Cooper on Wednesday night, referring to a character in the 1980s TV series “The Dukes of Hazzard.”

“These families are afraid out here,” Hood said of relatives of crime victims.

Hinds County Circuit Court Judge Tomie Green issued the injunction, saying it appeared some pardons, including those for the four murderers, did not meet the 30-day requirement. Any inmates released in the future must meet the standard, Green ruled.

On his way out the door, the Republican governor approved full pardons for nearly 200 people, including 14 convicted murderers, according to documents the Mississippi secretary of state’s office released Tuesday.

The four murderers who received full pardons last week — David Gatlin, Joseph Ozment, Charles Hooker and Anthony McCray — were cited in Green’s order.

They were all serving life sentences and worked as inmate trusties at the governor’s mansion, said Suzanne Singletary, spokeswoman for the Mississippi Department of Corrections. Trusties are inmates who can receive additional rights through good behavior.

ROMNEY RAISED $24 MILLION IN THE FOURTH QUARTER- from Reuters-

“The campaign has raised more than $56 million so far in the primary election season and has $19 million in cash on hand.

The strong fundraising means Romney has a substantial warchest as he strives for a third consecutive victory in the state-by-state race for the Republican nomination to oppose President Barack Obama, a Democrat, in the general election in November.”

RON PAUL’S CAMPAIGN IS CALLING ON THE REST OF THE FIELD- EXCEPT MITT- TO DROP OUT- from a statement released by the campaign after the results from New Hampshire last night:

“Ron Paul and Mitt Romney have been shown in national polls to be the only two candidates who can defeat Barack Obama.

“And Ron Paul and Mitt Romney are the only two candidates who can run a full, national campaign, competing in state after state over the coming weeks and months. Ron Paul’s fundraising numbers — over $13 million this quarter — also prove he will be able to compete with Mitt Romney. No other candidate can do all of these things.

“Ron Paul is clearly the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney as the campaign goes forward.

“We urge Ron Paul’s opponents who have been unsuccessfully trying to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney to unite by getting out of the race and uniting behind Paul’s candidacy.

“Ron Paul is in this race for the long haul. And he is ready to fight.”

“See you on the campaign trail.”

TODD PALIN GOES ROGUE- endorses Gingrich without consulting wife, Sarah- Here’s the former Alaska Governor on FOX News last night

“First dude went rogue. I respect him for doing that, Todd is all about hardhats and steel-toed boots and getting people to work, that’s what he represented and worked verry hard for as First Gentleman in our state.”

VIDEO 

SUPER PACS BLANKETING SOUTH CAROLINA- from National Journal’s Reid Wilson

“After decades at the head of the primary calendar, South Carolina voters won’t be surprised when they turn on their televisions this morning and see wall-to-wall campaign advertisements. And while a super PAC backing Newt Gingrich has said it will spend $3.4 million on negative ads blasting front-runner Mitt Romney, it’s actually Romney and his allies who are spending the most on television time this week and next.

Restore Our Future, a super PAC backing Romney’s campaign, has purchased more television advertisements than every other entity playing on South Carolina television, our sources in the ad buying community tell us. Restore Our Future has purchased more than $1.7 million in advertising over the next 10 days in South Carolina alone.

The pro-Romney group is spending nearly twice what any other candidate or PAC has purchased in the Greenville/Spartanburg, Columbia, Charleston and Myrtle Beach/Florence markets. And Restore Our Future is going head-to-head with the Gingrich-friendly super PAC, Winning Our Future, in the Charlotte, Augusta and Savannah markets, too.

Romney’s campaign dropped an additional $300,000 into South Carolina television time on Tuesday, reserving a total of $418,000 this week and $187,000 next week in total statewide spending.

Romney’s campaign will outspend his rivals this week, according to our sources. Rep. Ron Paul is spending $237,000 on television advertisements, with Texas Gov. Rick Perry spending $339,000 this week. Former Sen. Rick Santorum, who raised more than $2 million after nearly winning the Iowa caucuses, is starting to spend, too, reserving $337,000 in advertisements this week and another $52,000 next week. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is up with $149,000 spread across broadcast and cable.”

ROMNEY READIES HIS COUNTER ATTACK- POLITICO’S REID EPSTEIN

“Campaign advisers are polishing new messaging, tailored to rebut Republican and Democratic attacks separately. They’re cueing up new commercials.

And they’re rolling out a more aggressive approach from the candidate himself, even as the candidates who’d been waging the Bain battle appeared to be retreating from the rhetoric on Wednesday.

The change comes following three days of stumbling responses from Romney and campaign aides, who admit they were caught unprepared for the explosion of Bain as the dominant topic of the Republican race – “out of nowhere,” one adviser said. And it comes as Romney is aiming to turn his polling lead into a primary win — an early-state hat trick they hope will quickly establish him as the presumptive GOP nominee.

They’ll start with advertisements featuring employees of companies started and rescued by Bain to tell their stories — a direct response to the documentary released by the pro-Newt Gingrich super PAC that features employees of four companies closed by Bain that brutally slams Romney as a job killer. That documentary is set to be parceled out into shorter commercials which will air in South Carolina with a $3.4 million ad buy.

Romney adviser Kevin Madden says they’re confident they’ll quash those attacks with their new rebuttal.

REALITY FROM GINGRICH: THE PATH TO THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION COULD END IN SOUTH CAROLINA
from an interview on MSNBC this morning

“If Romney can win South Carolina, he’s probably going to be the nominee. This is his big test,” Gingrich said of his rival for the Republican presidential nomination. “He has so much money that if he also has the advantage of momentum, it’s going to be very hard to stop him,” Gingrich said of Romney.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR: There is growing chorus of Republicans who are urging- privately & publicly- for candidates to stop the attacks on Mitt Romney’s record at Bain Capital, believing that it ultimately will hurt the party and the man they see as the inevitable front runner. Watch, especially, for Newt Gingrich’s reaction.

WALL STREET TODAY- from CNBC-: Stocks ended near session highs Wednesday, but still closed narrowly mixed, as worries over the euro zone and declines in the energy sector limited gains.

• DOW down 13
• NASDAQ up 8
• S&P 500 up 0.4

FINALLY: Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie visited President Obama today at The White House, to update the President on Jolie’s recent work on preventing mass atrocities and combating sexual violence to women, according to an Administration official. Pitt was using a cane, the result of a recent skiing accident.

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1 DAY UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
12 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
15 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
22 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

“I LIKE BEING ABLE TO FIRE PEOPLE who provide services to me,” MITT ROMNEY, speaking today in Nashua, NH.

First- some context- and in the Romney’s campaign defense, the candidate was answering a question about services such as health care, and referencing insurance companies.

However- this quote came just one day after Romney said the following last evening in Rochester, NH:

“I’ve learned what it’s like to sign the front of a paycheck, not just the back of a paycheck, and to know how frightening it is to see if you can make the payroll at the end of the week. These are experiences that many of you know.”

“I know what it’s like to worry whether you’re going to get fired. There were a couple of times I wondered whether I was going to get a pink slip.”

Both quotes were immediately seized upon by Romney’s rivals in tomorrow’s primary. They also came on a day when the Wall Street Journal ran an A1 investigation into Romney’s record at Bain Capital, echoing an attack that Newt Gingrich brought up in this weekend’s debates, and which Gingrich’s Super PAC has bought an extraordinary amount of air time in South Carolina to make an issue in that state’s primary.

Tonight, Romney, the man who is expected to handedly win tomorrow’s primary, is under attack. They’re the same attacks that will be used by President Obama and the re-election campaign during the general election. Further, Romney’s misstatements today bare a striking resemblance to a fatal mistake made my Massachusetts Senator John Kerry during the 2004 election, with his comment that the “actually voted for it before he voted against it”- a line that came to symbolize his indecisiveness.

CAMPAIGN RESET- ROMNEY COMES UNDER FIRE AS PRIMARY LOOMS- THE WASHINGTON POST-PHILIP RUCKER IN HUDSON, NH

“An assault on Mitt Romney’s business career intensified Monday after the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination made an ­off-the-cuff comment that his opponents say shows that he was a corporate predator who sought profits at the expense of workers.”

“Governor Romney enjoys firing people; I enjoy creating jobs,” former Utah governor Jon Huntsman Jr., who polls suggest is enjoying a late surge here, told reporters in Concord. “It may be that he’s slightly out of touch with the economic reality playing out in America right now, and that’s a dangerous place to be.”

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) went further, criticizing the type of business Romney engaged in. “Look, I’m for capitalism,” Gingrich said on NBC’s “Today” show. “But if somebody comes in, takes all the money out of your company and then leaves you bankrupt while they go off with millions, that’s not traditional capitalism.”

Instead of sprinting to the finish before Tuesday’s primary, which he is heavily favored to win, the candidate spent his final day on the New Hampshire campaign trail explaining and defending his role as co-founder and chief executive of Bain Capital. The venture capital firm invested in start-ups such as Staples, an office supplies superstore, but also oversaw large-scale job losses through leveraged buyouts and restructuring.

“Free enterprise will be on trial,” Romney told reporters in Hudson. “I thought it was going to come from the president, from the Democrats on the left, but instead it’s coming from Speaker Gingrich and apparently others. And that’s just part of the process. I’m not worried about that. I’ve got broad shoulders.”

WMUR AND THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE PREDICT A ROMNEY BLOWOUT TOMORROW NIGHT, HAVE HIM UP 24 POINTS IN A POLL RELEASED TODAY

Romney 41%, Paul 17%, Huntsman 11%, Santorum 11%, Gingrich 8%, Perry 1%

SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY/NEWS 7 HAS IT A BIT CLOSER, ROMNEY UP 13

Romney 33%, Paul 20%, Huntsman 13%, Santorum 10%, Santorum 10%, Perry 1%

AND PPP TRACKING PUTS ROMNEY UP BY 17- probably the most accurate assessment of where the race stands

Romney 35%, Paul 18%, Huntsman 16%, Gingrich 12%, Santorum 11%, Perry 1%

IT’S ALL ABOUT EXPECTATIONS...

Will Romney crack 40% tomorrow?
Will anything significantly less be seen as a sign of weakness?
Will Ron Paul pull a strong second or will his support be transfered to another candidate?
Was there a Huntsman surge at the end of the race? Does he come in third, fourth or fifth?
Which candidates hold their New Hampshire primary parties from South Carolina (Rick Perry)?

DRIVING SOUTH CAROLINA- “A BIG CHECK AND GINGRICH GETS A BIG LIFT”- By NICHOLAS CONFESSORE and ERIC LIPTON- THE NEW YORK TIMES-

“MANCHESTER, N.H. — For weeks this winter, as Newt Gingrich’s presidential hopes faltered under the weight of millions of dollars in attack ads paid for by backers of Mitt Romney, a small group of Gingrich supporters quietly lobbied for help from one of the richest men in America: Sheldon Adelson, a billionaire casino owner and Mr. Gingrich’s longtime friend and patron

By the time Mr. Gingrich limped into New Hampshire, some of his top backers had given up on Mr. Adelson and begun prospecting elsewhere, including among erstwhile supporters of Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, to finance the counterattack they believed could salvage Mr. Gingrich’s campaign.

But on Friday, the cavalry arrived: a $5 million check from Mr. Adelson to Winning Our Future, a “super PAC” that supports Mr. Gingrich. By Monday morning, the group had reserved more than $3.4 million in advertising time in South Carolina, a huge sum of money in a state where the airwaves come cheap and the Republican presidential primary is just 11 days away. The group is planning to air portions of a movie critical of Mr. Romney’s time at Bain Capital, the private equity firm he helped found.

The last-minute injection underscores how last year’s landmark Supreme Court ruling on campaign finance has made it possible for a wealthy individual to influence an election. Mr. Adelson’s contribution to the super PAC is 1,000 times the $5,000 he could legally give directly to Mr. Gingrich’s campaign this year.

Several people with knowledge of Mr. Adelson’s decision to donate to Winning Our Future said that it was born out of a two-decade friendship with Mr. Gingrich, his advocacy on behalf of Israel and his turbulent months as a presidential candidate.

“His friend needed his help,” said a close associate of both men, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid drawing Mr. Adelson’s ire. “It’s more than anything else a loyalty thing. And he believes strongly in his platform and in Newt’s candidacy.”

THE DAY’S TOP POLITICAL STORY- WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF BILL DALEY IS STEPPING DOWN-
from National Journal’s George Condon, Jr. at The White House-

“President Obama promised on Monday that the White House will “not miss a beat” even though he was taken by surprise by the resignation of Chief of Staff William Daley and has had to turn to his third person in the post at the beginning of a critical election year.

To replace Daley, the president turned to another Washington veteran, Jack Lew. Lew is the current director of the White House Office of Management and Budget and previously served as a top deputy to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. He also served as an adviser to President Bill Clinton.

“Obviously, this was not easy news to hear,” the president said in the State Dining Room, flanked on each side by Daley and Lew. “And I didn’t accept Bill’s decision right away. In fact, I asked him to take a couple of days to make sure that he was sure about this. But in the end, the pull of the hometown we both love, a city that’s been synonymous with the Daley family for generations, was too great.”

Daley will become a co-chair of the President’s re-election campaign.

WALL STREET TODAY- from CNBC- “Stocks Eek Out a Gain Ahead of Earnings”

• DOW up 33
• NASDAQ up 3
• S&P 500 up 3

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW FOR TOMORROW

VOTING HOURS: Polls open at 7am ET and close in most places, including Manchester, at 7pm. The last polls in the state close at 8pm. That’s the earliest time the networks will make a projection. [and exit polls could provide enough information to make a projection at poll closing time tomorrow].

DIXVILLE NOTCH, NEW HAMPSHIRE HOLDS THE FIRST VOTES OF THE ELECTION, just past midnight ET tonight.

TURNOUT EXPECTATION: 250,000 for the Republican Primary and 75,000 for the Democratic Primary (President Obama is on the ballot uncontested), per the Secretary of State

INDEPENDENTS CAN VOTE: Because New Hampshire is an “open primary”. 40% of New Hampshire’s electorate is independent.

HOW ARE THE DELEGATES AWARDED: Tomorrow’s primary is the first time delegates will be awarded towards the Republican Nomination. Iowa’s caucuses last week were non-binding. They will hold a binding contest later this year to formally apportion delegates. 12 delegates are at stake tomorrow. Ordinarily, NH would have 23 delegates but the state is being penalized by the Republican Party for holding its primary in January, earlier than the official rules allow. Delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate attracting at least 10% of the vote.

WHAT’S NEXT? Two debates in South Carolina next week (Monday and Thursday), ahead of the South Carolina Primary on Saturday January 21st. Then comes the Florida Primary on Tuesday January 31st. That Saturday, February 4th, Nevada holds its caucuses and Maine begins their multi-day caucus. Super Tuesday is on March 6th. The earliest a candidate is likely to have a statistical “hold” on the nomination is on March 20th, after the Illinois Primary.

THREE FAST FACTS ABOUT NEW HAMPSHIRE:

In the last 25 years, only one candidate not named Bush or McCain has won the New Hampshire Republican primary: Pat Buchanan (1996).

And since 1952, no Republican presidential candidate has gone on to win his party’s nomination without finishing either first or second in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire holds more regular statewide and local elections more frequently than any other state in the United States.

2008 NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY RESULTS

John McCain 37.0%
Mitt Romney 31.6%
Mike Huckabee 11.2%
Rudy Giuliani 8.5%
Ron Paul 7.7%
Fred Thompson 1.2%
Turnout: 239,793

THE EVENING REPORT will publish a special post-primary edition tomorow night after the winner is known. Last Tuesday, our post-caucus edition was sent at 12:04am ET. 

4 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
15 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
18 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
25 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

FRIDAY’S EARLY EDITION

TOP STORY: The Labor Department reported this morning that the US economy gained 200,000 jobs last month, which dropped the unemployment rate to 8.5%.

It is the lowest level of unemployment since February 2009, the month that President Obama took office. It is also the sixth consecutive month of private sector job growth.

Still, 5.6 million Americans have been out of work for six months or longer, chronically unemployed and the unemployment rate does not reflect the millions of Americans who are no longer counted as part of the labor pool because they have dropped out and stopped looking for work.

PRESIDENT OBAMA, for whom the economy holds the key to re-election, trumpeted today’s news as he took a political victory lap of sorts at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in Washington, where he visited the newly appointed Commissioner, Richard Cordray. 

“This morning we learned that American businesses added another 212,000 jobs last month. All together more private-sector jobs were created in 2011 than any year since 2005,” he said.

“There are a lot of people that are still hurting out there, after losing more than 8 million jobs in the recession. Obviously, we have a lot more work to do. But it is important for the American people to recognize we added 3.2 million new private-sector jobs in the last 22 months, nearly 2 million new jobs last year alone….

“One of reasons is the tax cut we put in place last year.When Congress returns, they should extend the payroll tax cut all year. There should not be delay, there should not be a lot of drama.”

COMING ATTRACTION: The debate over extending the payroll tax cut through the end of the year will resume when Congress returns to town at the end of the month. Some believe that it is the only significant piece of legislation that Congress may move this year.

WALL STREET: for all the seemingly good economic news this week, the Dow managed to end the day slightly lower.

• DOW down 56
• NASDAQ down 3
• S&P 500 up 4

CAMPAIGN 2012

Just four days to go before New Hampshire votes and the politics of debate-prep and expectations setting drove the day today

ANOTHER SERIAL HYPOCRITE- and the latest in a theme of Ron Paul’s attack ads against fellow Republicans in the race. Today, the Paul campaign announced a $250,000 ad buy in South Carolina- home to Saturday January 21st primary- attacking Rick Santorum and calling his a “record of betrayal”  

WASHINGTON POST HEADLINE TONIGHT AND THE SUNDAY SHOWS THIS WEEKEND- Romney Looking To Wrap Things Up By End of Month- from Philip Rucker in Tilton, NH

“Buoyed by a narrow win in the Iowa caucuses and his commanding lead in the New Hampshire polls, Romney has turned his attention to South Carolina, where he is dispatching a slew of high-profile surrogates and relocating his staff ahead of the Jan. 21 primary. Looking further ahead, Romney has begun a massive advertising blitz in Florida and launched an aggressive outreach program to early voters in the state.

Romney campaign advisers insist they are taking the race one state at a time and not taking any contest for granted. Yet Republican observers see Romney executing an ambitious strategy that would quickly maximize his momentum and try to quash any further surges by his rivals.

“If Romney wins the first four states, he’ll be the de facto nominee of the party,” said Steve Schmidt, a senior strategist on Sen. John McCain’s 2008 campaign who is unaffiliated in the current race. Ed Rogers, another unaffiliated Republican strategist, said the notion that Romney may wrap up the nomination by Jan. 31 is “perfectly plausible.”

NEW POLLS OUT TODAY PROVIDE A SNAPSHOT OF THE RACE

ROMNEY UP BY 24 IN WMUR NH PRIMARY POLL: Romney 44%, Paul 20%, Santorum 8%, Gingrich 8%, HUNTSMAN 7%, Perry 1%

AND BY THE SAME MARGIN IN RASMUSSEN’S NH SURVEY: Romney 42%, Paul 18%, Santorum 13%, Huntsman 12%, Gingrich 8%, Perry 1%

IN SOUTH CAROLINA, CNN HAS HIM LEADING SANTORUM BY 18: Romney 37%, Santorum 19%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 12%, Perry 5%, Huntsman 1%

BUT RASMUSSEN SAYS ITS CLOSER, WITH ROMNEY ONLY LEADING BY 3: Romney 27%,Santorum 24%, Gingrich 18% , Paul 11%, Perry 5%, Huntsman 2%

DRIVING THE POLITICAL WORLD- The New York Times’ Jodi Kantor is out with a new book- which paints an unflattering view of the Obama Administration, with sources deep inside The West Wing. President and Mrs. Obama were not interviewed for the book.

WHAT WE’RE LEARNING- Former Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel offered his resignation to the President in the winter of 2010 at the end of the divisive health care debate. Kantor also exposes a rife between Emanual and First Lady Michelle Obama. From the Huffington Post’s White House Correspondent Sam Stein, reporting on the book:

“Once the administration began, the frictions only escalated. Emanuel rejected Michelle Obama’s efforts to be part of his 7:30 a.m. staff meeting. The administration did not outfit her with a speechwriter for some time. And the first lady’s office grew so isolated from the rest of the presidential orbit that aides there began, as Kantor writes, “referring to the East Wing as ‘Guam’ — pleasant but powerless.”

“Michelle and Rahm Emanuel had almost no bond; their relationship was distant and awkward from the beginning. She had been skeptical of him when he was selected, and now he returned the favor; he was uneasy about first ladies in general, several aides close to him said, based on clashes with Hillary Clinton in the 1990s that became so severe that she had tried to fire him from her husband’s administration,” writes Kantor. “Now Emanuel was chief of staff, a position that almost never included an easy relationship with the first lady. They were the president’s two spouses, in a sense, one public and official and one private and informal.”

AND MORE ABOUT THE FIRST LADY “Michelle Obama, who came to politics skeptically but saw her husband as someone capable of lofty achievements, lashed out against her isolation. She sent emails to [Obama Counselor Valarie] Jarrett when she had complaints about news coverage, which Jarrett would forward to others after removing the first lady’s name from them. When she couldn’t wedge herself into her husband’s schedule, she would send her missives to Alyssa Mastromonaco, the president’s director of scheduling. The emails, Kantor writes, “were so stern that Mastromonaco showed them around to colleagues, unsure of how to respond to her boss’s wife’s displeasure.”

THIS BOOK has the power to drive the White House off its new, revived, 2012 message, if the Administration allows it to do so. Watch to see over the next week how the White House officially responds, and what unofficial message they send as they play damage control.

AND FINALLY…The Bieb’s Got The Ink. NBC Entertainment reports:

“If you ever questioned the Biebs’ religious beliefs, this oughta clear it up for you.

In addition to his dove and Hebrew script of Jesus’ name on his rib cage ( matching with pops…awww), Justin Bieber showed off his new ink on the back of his calf while going to Shakey’s Pizza with his dad and some friends today.

The 17-year-old got a portrait of Jesus Christ’s face. Is it shocking?

To some it may seem that way, but Bieber has never been shy when it comes to religion. His movie, “Never Say Never,” even has some Christian reflection.

“People will walk away (from the movie) knowing faith is very important to him,” Scooter Braun, Bieber’s manager and one of the film’s producers told USA Today. “As a Christian, he’s someone to look up to…When [fans] are getting the real person is when they can connect to that person.”

“I believe that Jesus died on a cross for my sins,” Bieber told Billboard last November. “He’s the reason that I’m here.”

5 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
16 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
19 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
26 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

TOP STORY: President Obama today become the first Commander-in-Chief to hold a press conference in the Pentagon Press Briefing Room, with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Martin Dempsey, to announce a new proposal for the Defense Department budget- historic austerity measures to result in a smaller, leaner military to respond to changing threats and budgetary pressures.

FROM THE LEAD OF TOMORROW’S WASHINGTON POST-

“The U.S. military will steadily shrink the Army and Marine Corps, reduce forces in Europe and probably make further cuts to the nation’s nuclear arsenal…

The downsizing of the Pentagon, prompted by the country’s dire fiscal problems, means that the military will depend more on coalitions with allies and avoid the large-scale counterinsurgency and nation-building operations that have marked the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Instead, the Pentagon will invest more heavily in Special Operations Forces, which have a smaller footprint and require less money than conventional units, as well as drone aircraft and cybersecurity, defense officials said. The military will also shift its focus to Asia to counter China’s rising influence and North Korea’s unpredictability. Despite the end of the Iraq war, administration officials said they would keep a large presence in the Middle East, where tensions with Iran are worsening.”

TOP STORY IN THE ARMY TIMES- “Coming DoD cuts will hit some services harder“ 

THE MARINE CORPS TIMES- ”Long-war abilities cut; focus now on Pacific“ 

BREAKING TONIGHT IN DC POLITICS- City Councilmember Harry Thomas, Jr. has announced he will resign and turn himself in to authorities tomorrow morning on embezzlement charges.

THOMAS’ STATEMENT, IN PART: “Tomorrow morning I will plead guilty to committing two federal crimes. I am resigning my position as a member of the Council effective immediately. I made some very serious mistakes and exhibited inadequate and flawed judgment. I take full responsibility for my actions. I am truly sorry. As a Councilmember and throughout my life, I have dedicated myself to serving the residents and the youth of Washington, D.C. In the pursuit of this work, I made some poor decisions and acted in ways I simply should not have. I was wrong. I want to apologize to those I have let down, including my constituents, neighbors and friends in Ward 5, the residents of this great city, the mayor, my fellow councilmembers and the government officials that serve our city tirelessly.”

COMING ATTRACTION: Tomorrow morning at 8:30am, the Labor Department will release an employment report for the month of December. As it is each month, this report provides a snapshot of the economy and the employment picture. Economists are generally bullish on tomorrow’s report, predicting 150,000 jobs will be reported as added last month.

TODAY ON WALL STREET: Essentially unchanged on the day.

• DOW down 3
• NASDAQ up 21.5
• S&P 500 up 4

CAMPAIGN 2012

BREAKING TONIGHT: The Boston Globe has endorsed Jon Huntsman, bypassing its native son, and former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney, who is widely expected to win Tuesday’s primary. Four years ago, the Globe endorsed John McCain over Romney. McCain went on to win New Hampshire, and the Republican nomination.

FROM THE ENDORSEMENT, IN PART:

“Just three years removed from a Republican administration that was roundly judged a failure, the party has a chance to renew itself - to blaze a path to bipartisan action on the budget, to introduce market-based solutions to health costs, and to construct a post-Iraq War network of alliances to promote global economic strength, knowing that true security comes from both peace and prosperity.

So far, Republican presidential contenders have shown little awareness of this opportunity

And yet the chance for renewal remains. Sour economic data and dysfunction in Washington present major obstacles to Obama’s reelection. Whoever gets the Republican nomination could easily become president. Among the candidates, only two stand out as truly presidential, Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman.

But while Romney proceeds cautiously, strategically, trying to appease enough constituencies to get himself the nomination, Huntsman has been bold. Rather than merely sketch out policies, he articulates goals and ideals. The priorities he would set for the country, from leading the world in renewable energy to retooling education and immigration policies to help American high-tech industries, are far-sighted. He has stood up far more forcefully than Romney against those in his party who reject evolution and the science behind global warming.

With a strong record as governor of Utah and US ambassador to China, arguably the most important overseas diplomatic post, Huntsman’s credentials match those of anyone in the field. He would be the best candidate to seize this moment in GOP history, and the best-prepared to be president.”

HUNTSMAN IS POLLING AT SEVEN PERCENT in a Suffolk University Poll out today, conducted since the results of Tuesday’s Iowa Caucus. Mitt Romney holds a 23 point lead.

• Romney 41%
• Paul 18%
• Santorum 8%
• Gingrich 7%
• Huntsman 7%

THE WASHINGTON TIMES HAS MITT UP BY 14 in New Hampshire

• Romney 38%
• Paul 24%
• Santorum 11%
• Gingrich 9%
• Huntsman 8%
• Perry 1%

NATIONALLY, ROMNEY HOLDS A 8-POINT LEAD over Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich, now his chief rivals (by the polls) for the Republican Nomination

RASMUSSEN: Romney 29%, Santorum 21%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 12%, Perry 4, Huntsman 4%

GALLUP: Romney 27%, Gingrich 19%, Paul 13%, Santorum 11%, Perry 6%, Huntsman 2%

THE NEW HAMPSHIRE DEBATES:

Saturday, 9pm ET, Saint Anselm College, Manchester, NH, ABC News/WMUR-TV

Sunday, 9am ET, Chubb Theatre at the Capitol Center for the Arts, Concord, NH, NBC News/Facebook/NH Union-Leader

They will be the 14th & 15th debates of the 2011/12 primary season.

WHO WON THE DAY? Newt Gingrich, says POLITICO’S Alex Burns.

“It may all be too little, too late for Newton Leroy Gingrich, but for the first time in a long time, the former House speaker looked like a candidate with some fight in him.

His campaign put out an ad contrasting his leadership with the “timid” Mitt Romney. Gingrich ridiculed Romney on the trail as a tax-raising “moderate.” And the Union Leader, which endorsed him for president back when times were good, printed a front-page editorial calling for voters to learn the lesson of Iowa and reject the “squishy-moderate” Romney.

It remains to be seen if Gingrich’s campaign is still salvageable, and a Suffolk University tracking poll found that he had fallen into a tie for fourth place in New Hampshire with Jon Huntsman. Still, both Gingrich’s supporters and his opponents see the possibility of another political resurrection in South Carolina.”

FIGHTING WORDS FROM GINGRICH ON THE TRAIL TONIGHT:

“Gov. Romney ran for governor, called himself — I’m not making these words up — called himself a moderate,” Gingrich said. “As governor, he appointed liberal judges to appease the Democrats. As governor, he raised taxes.”

TOP TALKER- “Santorum Raises Polygamy in Defending Stand Against Gay Marriage”- National Journal- Naureen Khan and Ron Fournier in Concord

“In a spirited debate with gay-rights supporters, GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum on Thursday defended his opposition to liberalizing marriage laws by raising the specter of polygamy.“What about three men?” he asked.
The comment evoked memories of the ex-Pennsylvania senator’s controversial statement to the Associated Press in 2003 in which he associated gay sex with incest and bestiality.

Santorum encouraged the debate with several audience members who attended his address at a college convention sponsored by New England College. The audience of about 200 people included several supporters of Santorum’s rival, libertarian Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. Some booed Santorum when he left the stage.

One audience member, a college-aged man, asked Santorum how gay marriage affected him personally. A young woman asked him to justify his embrace of constitutional freedoms such as life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness while at the same time denying the right for gay couples to marry.

FROM SANTORUM’S STATEMENT IN 2003 TO USA TODAY 

“We have laws in states, like the one at the Supreme Court right now, that has sodomy laws and they were there for a purpose. Because, again, I would argue, they undermine the basic tenets of our society and the family. And if the Supreme Court says that you have the right to consensual sex within your home, then you have the right to bigamy, you have the right to polygamy, you have the right to incest, you have the right to adultery. You have the right to anything. Does that undermine the fabric of our society? I would argue yes, it does. It all comes from, I would argue, this right to privacy that doesn’t exist in my opinion in the United States Constitution, this right that was created.”

TONIGHT’S HUFFINGTON POST BANNER

“STAY CLASSY, RICK
Santorum Compares Gay Marriage To Polygamy”

THE WAY WE SEE IT: Watch for this story to blow up tomorrow, and doom Santorum’s chances of continuing his Iowa momentum any further.

FINALLY…If you were scrolling through your Twitter feed late last night, you might have seen KANYE WEST go on a rant. More than 80 of them. Over 3 hours. In a rambling train of thoughts. Reuters makes some sense of it-

“We need to take what Michael Jackson felt and Mcqueen and Steve Jobs and we need make things better,” West said on Twitter during the early hours of Thursday morning from London, referring to the late singing legend, fashion designer Alexander McQueen and Apple’s founding visionary.

Media outlets tried to interpret West’s posts in various ways, with publications such as Slate focusing on West’s announcement of design company DONDA, while others like MTV opted to highlight tweets telling readers what was on the rapper’s mind.

“He’s a mad genius,” said Ian Drew, music editor of Us Weekly. “His ideas are grandiose, but if you look at the history of Kanye, he would tweet an idea and it would happen. He’s trying to be understood and heard.”

“In general, Kanye is someone who thinks he is incredibly important,” said Cooper Lawrence, author of “The Cult of Celebrity.”

She said the Twitter posts “showed insight into who he really is,” and speculated on the rapper’s mental condition, saying she “wouldn’t be surprised if Kanye was suffering from depression.”

AGAIN TONIGHT WE WELCOME our new subscribers who came via a link in this morning’sCOLLEGE DAYBREAK. Welcome to the Evening Report, we’re glad to have you! 

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6 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
17 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
20 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
27 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

It was a busy news day. Here’s a look at what’s happened today:

• Mitt Romney officially won the Iowa Caucus by eight votes over Rick Santorum.
• Michele Bachmann said she was suspending her presidential campaign.
• Rick Perry returned to Texas, and then announced that he would be staying in the race, participating in this weekend’s debates and competing in the South Carolina Primary later this month.
• 2008 Republican Nominee John McCain endorsed Mitt Romney in New Hampshire.
• President Obama appointed Richard Cordray to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, using a controversial recess appointment. He used the same authority to nominate three members of the National Labor Relations Board.

THE MAN OF THE DAY: RICK SANTORUM, who sent a shock wave through the Republican Party by earning 25% of last night’s Iowa Caucus vote. Today, Santorum moved on to New Hampshire as he faces the seemingly daunting task of building a campaign organization that is able to go toe-to-toe with Mitt Romney.

HE’S RAISED A MILLION DOLLARS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS: reports Jonathan Martin “their server briefly went down under the crush last night, said almost all of the cash came online.”

AND/BUT MITT ROMNEY WON THE DAY, says Maggie Habberman, “To be sure, Rick Santorum has had a good day - he’s still being treated as the clearest anti-Romney candidate, and he got helpful ink from the Wall Street Journal editorial page and columnist George Will. But Romney’s day was better.”

AND JMART SAYS ITS GOING TO BE HARD TO STOP ROMNEY NOW:

“Conservatives got a stark reminder Wednesday about just how difficult it will be to block his path to the nomination. Romney’s conservative opposition remains split and unable to unify behind a single alternative — all the more so with Rick Perry deciding to stay in the race Wednesday after hinting he might step aside. A high-profile Christian conservative, Gary Bauer, said he had no intention of joining a campaign to take down Romney.

And even second-place Iowa finisher Rick Santorum’s momentum hardly seemed enough to slow Romney in New Hampshire, where the former Massachusetts governor is sitting on a double-digit lead with five days until the primary.
Because of the divided nature of the opposition and Romney’s organizational and financial advantages, GOP elites made the case Wednesday that there was no clear way he could be stopped.”

A ‘VICTORY LAP’ IS EXACTLY HOW THE NEW YORK TIMES DESCRIBES ROMNEY’S DAY:

“After a round of morning television show appearances and a ride in a Boeing 737 packed with reporters, Mr. Romney headed for a high school gymnasium where he accepted the endorsement of a onetime bitter rival, Senator John McCain. He also showed off his network of support in the state, where the nation’s first primary takes place Tuesday, appearing with former Gov. John H. Sununu and Senator Kelly Ayotte, an indication of how the Republican establishment was rallying to his side.

“Do we think we can get more than an eight-vote margin here in New Hampshire?” he asked the crowd, a joking reference to his remarkably slim margin of victory in Iowa.

While Mr. Romney dominated the day-after-Iowa news coverage with his victory lap here, Mr. Santorum and his staff were slowly making the 1,400-mile journey from Des Moines in a King Air propeller plane that did not deliver them here until suppertime, too late to make a star turn on the evening news. He made a nighttime turn on Fox News and CNN and landed in time for a rally that drew hundreds.”

BUT, ABOUT THAT MCCAIN ENDORSEMENT- the Huffington Post’s Jon Ward thought the event was lackluster, much like Romney’s speech early this morning in Iowa:

“Mitt Romney’s first event here in the state where he enjoys a huge home-field advantage offered a rude awakening.

Three of the first four questioners were openly hostile to Romney, although one of them was an Occupy Manchester activist. And even the endorsement and appearance of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) failed to arouse much of a reaction from the Granite Staters in attendance.”

WHY POLITICAL ADVANCE IS SO IMPORTANT: ”And much of the blame probably lay with campaign planners, who scheduled Romney for an event at a time when most politically active people are working and put him in front of an audience made up in part of apathetic high school students. They also rushed McCain out onto the big stage so he could dominate the cable news during the afternoon, rather than waiting for an early-evening town hall in Peterborough, one of McCain’s favorite settings in the state.”

TONIGHT McCain and Romney made a joint appearance on Hannity.

SO WHAT’S NEXT?

Saturday- 14th Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, St. Anslem College, 9pm/ABC News
Sunday- Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, Mancheser, NH 9am/NBC News
Tuesday- New Hampshire Primary
Monday January 16th- Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, Myrtle Beach, SC
Thursday January 19th- 17th Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, Charleston, SC
Saturday January 21st- South Carolina Primary

SANTORUM MISSES DEADLINE FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA APRIL 3RD PRIMARY- “Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry and Mitt Romney all filed the required information by today’s 5 p.m. deadline and will appear on the ballot for DC’s April 3 primary. Michele Bachmann, who dropped her presidential bid earlier today, also did not file”

JON HUNTSMAN ON AIR IN NEW HAMPSHIRE: ”We’re getting screwed as Americans” his new ad - also his first- says.

PRESIDENT OBAMA went to Ohio today, his first public appearance of 2012 in a key battleground state. And the White House began the year fighting, choosing to usurp Senatorial custom and interpret the President’s constitutional authority to issue recess appointments broadly, nominating Richard Cordray as the first director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

IN THIS MOVE, National Journal’s Stacy Kaper and Dan Friedman find clues to the President’s re-election strategy

“In one bold stroke, Obama broke what Democrats called an unprecedented GOP attempt to hold up installation of any CFPB chief unless Democrats agreed to change the agency’s structure. Republicans filibustered Cordray’s nomination last month. 

Obama’s move marks a new step in a procedural arms race in which both parties, while professing outrage, counter each other’s obstruction with new procedural tactics. Legally, Cordray has no better claim to a recess appointment than any other pending nominee. But because Republicans blocked Cordray on the grounds that they oppose the bureau rather than think him unqualified, Democrats feel they have a stronger political case for installing him.

Lawyers of all stripes agree that legal challenges are inevitable, and that, like the health care law, they could ultimately wind up before the Supreme Court.”

LOOK FOR AN INCREASINGLY COMBATIVE WHITE HOUSE to continue its “We Can’t Wait” strategy in the weeks ahead, portraying President Obama as a “warrior for the Middle Class”- a likely theme for this year’s State of the Union Address

WALL STREET- from CNBC- “The Dow and S&P clawed back into positive territory at the close Wednesday, adding to the sharp rally from the previous session, but gains were limited over renewed fears over the euro zone debt crisis.”

• DOW up 21
• NASDAQ down 0.36
• S&P 500 up 0.24

FINALLY… The Iowa Caucus results didn’t come in until very early this morning and cable news anchors stayed on the air  through it all. CNN’s coverage after 1am provided a lot of great bloopers

Here’s Erin Burnett flicking a magic wall, Anderson Cooper saying “have we all just given up here?” and “I don’t know what the hell a social media screen is” and Wolf Blitzer looking anxious in “Late Night Takes over CNN Anchors“ 

Here’s Piers Morgan clearly interrupting Anderson Cooper when he was about to follow-up with a question 

AND THE BEST VIDEO OF THE NIGHT Here’s Wolf Blitzer and John King ON THE PHONE with Clinton County Election Officials Edith & Carolyn, including “what do you mean the numbers don’t match?” 

WELCOME to our new subscribers who came via a link in this morning’s COLLEGE DAYBREAK. Welcome to the Evening Report, we’re glad to have you! 

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7 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
18 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
21 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS

CAUCUS EDITION

BREAKING: Texas Govenror Rick Perry has just said he will reassess his presidential campaign and return to Texas- canceling a full line up of events planned in South Carolina tomorrow. 

THE LATEST- ROMNEY AND SANTORUM IN VIRTUAL TIE FOR IOWA- The Washington Post’s Karen Tumulty

“Three sharply different Republican candidates were on course to split the bulk of votes in Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses as a chaotic campaign season culminated with the first real ballots cast.

With 96 percent of precincts reporting at 11:40 p.m. Eastern, former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.) was in a virtual tie with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, leading him by just 79 votes. Both of them hovered around 24.6 percent of the total, with Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) close behind at 21 points. It seemed possible that this year’s winner — whoever it turns out to be — would finish with the lowest percentage total of any GOP winner in Iowa’s modern history, sinking below Bob Dole’s 26 percent in 1996.”

THE ORDER LEAVING IOWA

FIRST/SECOND: SANTORUM/ROMNEY- separated by TENS of votes
THIRD: PAUL
FOURTH: GINGRICH
FIFTH : PERRY
SIXTH: BACHMANN

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

One week from tonight, we’ll be reporting on the New Hampshire Primary. Between now and then, there are two debates- on Saturday night and Sunday morning on Meet The Press. the first question will be if all of the second tier candidates (Gingrich, Perry and Bachmann) go on. The next question will be which of the candidates decide to compete in New Hampshire, where Romney has held a commanding lead for months, and which go on to South Carolina, which holds its primary two weeks from this coming Saturday.

Four weeks from tonight, Florida will hold its primary, the fourth early state of the season. Today, the Romney campaign announced that they have begun airing television ads in the Sunshine State, the first major campaign to do so. As we reported last night, Romney is already on the air in South Carolina, with a $260,000 ad buy.

THIS HAPPENED TONIGHT

SHOT- @RonPaul: @jonhuntsman we found your one Iowa voter, he’s in Linn precinct 5 you might want to call him and say thanks

CHASER- Huntsman spokesperson- “We find it odd that Congressman Paul would attack Gov. Huntsman in such a childish fashion. Just the latest in a long line of odd statements from him.”

THE BATTLE FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE- Fourth place finisher Newt Gingrich is going to take the gloves off. This full page ad is running tomorrow in the New Hampshire Union Leaderhttp://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/01/newt-to-make-sidebyside-comparison-with-mitt-in-the-109494.html. This confirms earlier reporting by NBC’s Andrea Mitchell tonight.

UPDATE: And in his speech to supporters in Iowa tonight, Gingrich seemed angry…no where close to dropping out..and ready to serve the role of attack dog against Romney in the New Hampshire debates and then in South Carolina…which will allow Santorum the time he needs to build an organization 

AWKWARD MOMENT: Rick Santorum’s nephew endorsed Ron Paul today. From the Des Moines Register, “John Garver, a student at the University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown,  endorsed Paul in a column published today in The Daily Caller, a news web site launched  last year by political pundit Tucker Carlson and former GOP adviser Neil Patel.

In the piece, Garver said Santorum’s “interventionist policies, both domestic and foreign, stem from his irrational fear of freedom not working”

The 19-year-old went on to say: “It is because of this inability of status quo politicians to recognize the importance of our individual liberties that I have been drawn to Ron Paul. Unlike my uncle, he does not believe that the American people are incapable of forming decisions. He believes that an individual is more powerful than any group (a notion our founding fathers also believed in).”

ANSWERING THE QUESTIONS. In the Des Moines Register this morning, political writer Jennifer Jacobs floated the following questions- what she would be looking for tonight (as reported in James Hobbermann’s Morning Score today)

Can Bachmann and Perry keep their people, or will they go to Santorum?
It went to Perry.

Will Bachmann get fewer votes than she got in the Iowa straw poll (just under 5,000)?
So far, yes.

Can Perry right the ship and finish ahead of Gingrich?
Nope.

Is the ‘Santorum surge’ real?
Indeed.

Will Paul do better or worse than polling predicts?
Better.

Will the evangelicals lock arms behind a single candidate?
Apparently.

Will the desire to beat President Barack Obama drive voters to Mitt Romney, the candidate whom likely caucusgoers consider most electable?
Electability was key, but conservatism was moreso.

If Paul pulls this off, is it evidence of passion for a candidate and his ideas, or disenchantment with both political parties and a sign that voters are so frustrated they’re willing to upset the apple cart?
He didn’t pull it off

Will Iowa beat the record turnout? [The GOP record is 118,411 in 2008.]
It was very close, and it looks like a record. 

WALL STREET- from CNBC- “Stocks Kick Off 2012 With a Bang, Led by Banks”

• DOW up 180
• NASDAQ up 44
• S&P 500 up 20

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4 DAYS UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
11 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
22 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Politics has become a really nasty, vicious, negative business and I think it’s disgusting and I think it’s dishonest”- Newt Gingrich to ABC’s Jonathan Karl

HIGHLIGHTS FROM TODAY ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

GINGRICH TEARS UP- from The Washington Post-

“Gingrich was asked to speak about a time his mother affected him at the event sponsored by CafeMom, a social networking website for mothers.

“You’ll get me all teary-eyed — Callista will tell you, I get teary-eyed every time we sing Christmas carols. My mother sang in the choir and loved singing in the choir,” Gingrich said, referring to his wife, as he fought back tears.

“But I identify my mother with being happy, loving life, having a sense of joy in her friends, but what she introduced me to, is late in her life she ended up in a long-term-care facility. She had bipolar disease, and depression, and she gradually acquired some physical ailments, and that introduced me to the issue of long-term care, which I did with [Former Nebraska Sen.] Bob Kerrey for three years, and that introduced me to the issue of Alzheimer’s, which I did with Bob Kerrey for three more years, and my whole emphasis on brain science comes indirectly from dealing with the real problems of real people in my family,” the former House Speaker continued, at moments stopping to cry.
The audience sympathetically cheered for Gingrich as he spoke about his mother.

“I do policy much easier than I do personal,” Gingrich joked.

WATCH VIDEO

FLASHBACK: Hillary Clinton January 2008, one day before the New Hampshire Primary that she went on to win- “This is very personal for me, it’s not just political, it’s not just public”

CHASER: Mitt Romney this evening at an event, via POLITICO’s Maggie Haberman:

“Here in Merrimack, Romney started talking about his parents and what they meant to him, and how they taught him to love America — and said, “No, no, I won’t cry.

ROMNEY SON MAKES A BIRTHER JOKE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE- via the Washington Post-

“He’s certainly not afraid of anything. He’s not hiding anything,” Matt Romney said in response to an query from an audience member on whether the former Massachusetts governor would release his tax returns. “You know, I heard someone suggest the other day that as soon as President Obama releases his grades and birth certificate and sort of a long list of things, then maybe he’d do it.”

Perhaps sensing trouble, the eldest Romney brother, Tagg, quickly jumped in.

“That was not my dad saying that,” he told the crowd.

“No, no, no, that was just a suggestion from someone else,” Matt Romney added.

AND THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN SEIZES ON IT- via ABC’s Jake Tapper-

“In a fundraising email, Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina pounced like a jungle caton a remark made by Mitt Romney’s son Matt, 40, seeking to paint his father as appealing to extreme elements.

“Friend,” wrote Messina in a mass email to supporters, “You’ve got to hear this. Asked at a Romney campaign event whether his father would follow decades of precedent and release his tax returns, Mitt Romney’s adult son Matt quoted the most recent Tea Party line, saying: ‘… As soon as President Obama releases his grades, and birth certificate, and sort of a long list of things, then maybe he will.’”

Asserted Messina, “This is how the Romney campaign thinks it’s going to win the Republican primary: by pandering to the dead-ender fringe of extremists who still question where the President was born. We can’t make them rewrite their talking points. But we can drive up the cost of this kind of politics.”

WELCOME TO THE GENERAL ELECTION

2012’s BIG STORY- RON PAUL TO AL HUNT ON POTENTIAL FOR A THIRD PARTY RUN ”I’ve never been an absolutist and say absolutely might or absolutely will, but I have no intention of doing. I can’t imagine it happening…we’re doing pretty well in the polls. So I’d better concentrate on the polls rather than on something like that.”

ROMNEY LEADING PAUL IN NBC/MARIST POLL IN IOWA

Romney 23%
Paul 21%
Santorum 15%
Perry 14%
Gingrich 13%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 2%

AND CONTINUES TO LEAD IN GALLUP DAILY TRACKING (NATIONAL)

Romney 26%
Gingrich 14%
Paul 11%
Perry 7%
Bachmann 5%
Santorum 5%
Huntsman 2%

TOMORROW at 7pm, the final Des Moines Register poll before the Caucus is released. We’ll have the results in a special Saturday edition of THE EVENING REPORT.

YOU’LL SEE THIS STORY AGAIN- Huffington Post’s Sam Stein- “Obama Campaign In Iowa Hopes To Flex Organizing Muscle”

“The Obama reelection campaign is paying significant attention to the Jan. 3 caucus, not just as a means of assessing future competition but also as a dry run for the 2012 general election. The president will technically be on the ballot. And his team would love nothing more than for him to scoop up more votes than some of the top names in the GOP primary. But the prevailing concern is to reengage the network of Hawkeye State supporters who initially pushed Barack Obama to the White House and to bring new ones into the fold.

In reporting on the Obama reelection team’s efforts in Iowa earlier this week, Politico referred to their work as a “shadow campaign.” In actuality, reelection aides are hoping that it ends up being a fairly open illustration of the very different styles of the president and his opponents.

“We have built this campaign from the ground up just like in ‘07 and ‘08,” said one Obama campaign official. “And in ‘07 and ‘08, it left a legacy in states in which we had a really strong field program and were able to engage volunteers. And what is clear is that Romney and the other candidates, rather than investing in organization and supporters on the ground, have instead competed on the air and on a national stage, and they haven’t left a legacy of a strong organization in states across the country. And they are not going to be able to just flip a switch. It takes time.”

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND: Endorsements matter in the hours before the Caucus. Also watch the DMR poll tomorrow night. This year’s caucus is unusual in that it falls the day after a long holiday weekend. Caucus-goers will be at home, likely watching local media, so small stories could make a big difference if they get significant media attention.

MUST-READ: NBC’s “Decision 2012: Iowa Caucus & New Hampshire Primary Guide” (.pdf) This is the briefing book NBC political reporters and anchors are reading this weekend to prepare for the next two weeks of political coverage.

WALL STREET- the final trading day of the year- from CNBC

• DOW down 69
• NASDAQ down 9
• S&P 500 down 5

DOW closed at 12217.56, finishing 1.4% higher for the month of December and 5.5% higher for the year.
NASDAQ closed at 2605.15, down 1.8% this year.
S&P 500 closed at 1257.60, essentially unchanged for 2011.

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5 DAYS UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
12 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
23 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

CAMPAIGN RESET- from The Washington Post’s Dan Balz in Ames- “Romney prepares aggressive Iowa finish”

“Romney is far from a clear favorite in Iowa: Rep. Ron Paul of Texas continues to show strength in the polls and is banking on a well-regarded organization, and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum is on the rise. But no campaign can match Romney’s for the breadth and depth of its infrastructure, and for the first time the weapons he can deploy are all on display.

For months, Romney’s campaign in Iowa appeared to be moving in slow motion, but it has suddenly taken on a new intensity and some Republican ­strategists say the former Massachusetts governor is building his Iowa momentum at just the right moment.

The volatile political landscape in Iowa underwent its latest jolts in the past 36 hours, scrambling the fortunes of several candidates — most notably Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Paul — and left Romney in his most favorable position in Iowa so far.

But increasingly, the focus of the race is Romney and his potential to win Tuesday. He is drawing energy from boisterous crowds, some of whose participants said in interviews that they had only recently come around to Romney because he seems like the party’s best bet to beat President Obama.

Romney asked Iowa voters Thursday to weigh their choices carefully. “I hope as you look at the people running you can measure their capacity to lead effectively and you can also determine whether they can become our nominee and defeat President Obama,” Romney told 400 supporters in Mason City. “I think I can.”

LEADING DESMOINESREGISTER.COM TONIGHT: ”Almost Bowl Time for ISU, UI”

THEIR OTHER TOP STORY- “Des Moines police arrest 12 protesters at Democratic headquarters”- as #OccupyTheCaucuses come to Iowa

“Twelve protesters have been arrested at the Iowa Democratic headquarters this afternoon, as they protested that Guantanamo remained open and corporate donations to campaigns.

As arrests were going on, other protesters with the Occupy the Caucuses movement chanted, “Hey, hey, ho, ho, Obama close Guantanamo.”

Among those arrested was Frankie Hughes, 14, who earlier today told a Register reporter that she gets good grades.

More than two dozen protesters were at the Democratic headquarters, the fourth Des Moines-area site in two days that protesters have demonstrated at.”

NEXT WEEK’S BIG STORY TONIGHT- “Michele Bachmann’s hard fall”- by POLITICO’s Maggie Haberman

“But as the race wraps up, the woman who was on a trajectory to become the first-ever female winner of the Iowa caucuses is fighting to avoid finishing dead last in the state where she was raised.

To underscore her troubles, Bachmann has spent the last 24 hours trying to spin the fallout from her Iowa state campaign chairman’s defection to the Ron Paul camp — insisting repeatedly that the man in question took a payoff to make the switch. Another longtime staffer, who went public to defend the departed chairman, was gone from the campaign by late Thursday.

All that seems certain, amid a fractured evangelical base and the latest polling data, is that the low-on-cash Bachmann rates as an extreme long shot to win the Iowa caucuses. There’s no comfort back home either: she faces uncertain re-election prospects in her own House seat at the end of the presidential primary season.”

QUOTE OF THE DAY- Mitt Romney “When the president’s characterization of our economy was, ‘It could be worse,’ it reminded me of Marie Antoinette: ‘Let them eat cake,’” Romney said, referring to the infamously dismissive remark toward the poor attributed to the queen.”

ALEX BURNS’ WHO WON THE DAY- RON PAUL

“But it was today when the full impact of state Sen. Kent Sorenson’s defection sank in, triggering a daylong firefight between Bachmann and her onetime supporter, whom she accused of taking a payoff to abandon her. When another Bachmann adviser, Iowa operative Wes Enos, came to Sorenson’s defense, he was booted off the campaign. If Bachmann had any chance of delivering a strong closing message to regain traction in the race, she just lost a day squabbling with a defector.

It wasn’t only Bachmann whose campaign shifted gears Thursday in reaction to Paul’s strength: Jon Huntsman put out a web video attacking him for the first time and Rick Santorum, the Iowa momentum candidate of the moment, went after Paul at multiple campaign stops. Add to that a Union Leader editorial blasting Paul as a “dangerous man” and it’s clear which candidate was at the center of the 2012 universe.”

ATTACK OF THE DAY: Huntsman v. Paul in this web ad in which he asks “Can New Hampshire voters really trust Ron Paul?” 

ROMNEY’S CLOSING ARGUMENT: Believe in America Again. 60-second ad airing in Iowa. 

POLL OF THE DAY: INSIDER ADVANTAGE FINDS A 3-WAY TIE IN IOWA

Romney 17%
Paul 17%
Gingrich 17%
Santorum 13%
Bachmann 12%
Perry 11%
Huntsman 3%

RASMUSSEN FINDS ROMNEY UP BY ONE IN IOWA

Romney 23%
Paul 22%
Santorum 16%
Gingrich 13%
Perry 13%
Bachmann 5%
Huntsman 3%

AND GALLUP TRACKING HAS ROMNEY UP BY FOUR NATIONALLY

Romney 27%
Gingrich 23%
Paul 11%
Perry 8%
Bachmann 5%
Santorum 4%
Huntsman 2%

DAVID YEPSEN IN THE WASHINGTON POST- FIVE MYTHS ABOUT THE IOWA CAUCUSES

1/ Iowa voters don’t represent the United States.
2/ Retail politics is king in Iowa.
3/ To win, you need to appeal to right-wing activists.
4/ The weather will influence the outcome.
5/ Iowa caucus-goers take voting more seriously than people in other states.

READ THE DEAN OF THE HAWKEYE STATE’s full analysis 

WALL STREET- from CNBC- “Stocks End Near Highs, S&P Positive for 2011”

• DOW up 136
• NASDAQ up 24
• S&P 500 up 14

12 DAYS UNTIL IOWA
19 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE

BREAKING: A magnitude 5.9 earthquake has struck near Christchurch, New Zealand, the US Geological Survey reports

TOP STORY: A deal.

Late this afternoon, Speaker of the House John Boehner, looking weary and defeated after a week of intense negotiations, came to the microphones to announce that he had reached a deal with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to have the House pass the Senate bill extending the payroll tax cut for two months, adding a provision that seeks to accommodate the burden that some businesses may face from having to adjust their payroll filings as a result of the legislation.

He expected that the House and Senate would both act before Christmas- meaning tomorrow- to pass the bill by unanimous consent. That is, unless one member objects which, while entirely possible, is considered unlikely.

THE LATEST- from The Hill- “House Republican Leaders Cave- Agree To Pass Two-Month Bill”

“Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) announced the agreement with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) Thursday evening after briefing rank-and-file House Republicans on a conference call. The House has agreed to pass a version of the Senate’s two-month payroll tax cut legislation, with a fix demanded by Republicans to make implementation easier.

According to a lawmaker who participated in the House GOP conference call, Boehner told the rank-and-file members that a deal was struck and the deed had been done. Unlike an extended phone call on Saturday, where members voiced extreme opposition to a Senate compromise, the Thursday conference call was one-way, and members were only allowed to listen in.

The agreement capped a disastrous week for Boehner, who was first forced into a fight with Senate Republicans by his own angry members and then was abandoned by senior Republicans, including Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the 2008 presidential nominee, and Karl Rove, the chief strategist for the last Republican president.

“I don’t think this is any time for celebration,” Boehner said as he announced the agreement in the basement of a nearly empty Capitol.

Asked if he caved on the issue, the Speaker replied: “You know, sometimes it’s hard to do the right thing, and sometimes it’s politically difficult to do the right thing.”

STATEMENT FROM SPEAKER BOEHNER announcing the deal:

“Senator Reid and I have reached an agreement that will ensure taxes do not increase for working families on January 1 while ensuring that a complex new reporting burden is not unintentionally imposed on small business job creators.  Under the terms of our agreement, a new bill will be approved by the House that reflects the bipartisan agreement in the Senate along with new language that allows job creators to process and withhold payroll taxation under the same accounting structure that is currently in place.  The Senate will join the House in immediately appointing conferees, with instructions to reach agreement in the weeks ahead on a full-year payroll tax extension.  We will ask the House and Senate to approve this agreement by unanimous consent before Christmas.  I thank our Members – particularly those who have remained here in the Capitol with the holidays approaching – for their efforts to enact a full-year extension of the payroll tax cut for working families.”

STATEMENT FROM MAJORITY LEADER REID affirming the deal-

“I am grateful that the voices of reason have prevailed and Speaker Boehner has agreed to pass the Senate’s bipartisan compromise. Year-long extensions of the payroll tax cut, unemployment insurance and Medicare payments for physicians has always been our goal, and Democrats will not rest until we have passed them. But there remain important differences between the parties on how to implement these policies, and it is critical that we protect middle-class families from a tax increase while we work them out.

“I look forward to appointing members of my caucus to continue negotiations towards a year-long agreement. Two months is not a long time, and I expect the negotiators to work expeditiously to forge year-long extensions of these critical policies.”

STATEMENT FROM PRESIDENT OBAMA trumpeting what has been a very good week for his presidency-

“For the past several weeks, I’ve stated consistently that it was critical that Congress not go home without preventing a tax increase on 160 million working Americans. Today, I congratulate members of Congress for ending the partisan stalemate by reaching an agreement that meets that test.

Because of this agreement, every working American will keep his or her tax cut – about $1,000 for the average family. That’s about $40 in every paycheck. Vital unemployment insurance will continue for millions of Americans who are looking for work.  And when Congress returns, I urge them to keep working to reach an agreement that will extend this tax cut and unemployment insurance for all of 2012 without drama or delay.

This is good news, just in time for the holidays. This is the right thing to do to strengthen our families, grow our economy, and create new jobs.  This is real money that will make a real difference in people’s lives. And I want to thank every American who raised your voice to remind folks in this town what this debate was all about. It was about you. And today, your voices made all the difference.”

TONIGHT, THE PRESIDENT TWEETED FROM @WHITEHOUSE:

Thanks to all who shared #40dollars stories. Today’s victory is yours. Keep making your voices heard – it makes all the difference. –bo

PAYROLL TAKEAWAYS:

1/ This debate was a big deal. The question is how big a deal it remains weeks and months from now. Will it be seen as a defining moment in the relationship between President Obama and Congress, between Democrats and Republicans, between Republicans and the Tea Party- or will this debate, similar to the others we have seen this year over federal funding and the debt ceiling, be eclipsed by the next big battle?

2/ The White House found its voice. After a year of trying, and often coming up short, in its negotiations with Congress and after continued difficulty messaging and communicating with the public, the White House’s operation has seemingly come together over the last week. The #40Dollars campaign was really the first time the formal White House has successfully leveraged the social media tools they mastered in the 2008 election to help them win both a policy and a political debate, in a way that related to the average American.

3/ The Speaker is severely weakened. What we don’t know is if he is damaged beyond repair or, quite possibly and alternatively, if the Tea Party Republicans who forced a change in control in the House in 2010 have finally been shunned by enough of the traditional Republican establishment. Many believe that this group of freshman representatives revolted in the summer and prevented Speaker Boehner from agreeing to a grand bargain with President Obama. This time, the Speaker was at first ready to give in to their demands but then essentially said “not this time.”

WALL STREET- from CNBC-

“Stocks pushed into the close to finish around their highest levels for the second day in a row, as banks surged and Wall Street shrugged off fears of a global economic slowdown.

Financials, energy and technology — the market’s principal weak spot recently — led gainers, while commodities, particularly mining-related stocks, showed weakness. Consumer staples was the worst of the 10 Standard & Poor’s 500 sectors during a day in which the market traded in a tight range throughout the session.”

• DOW up 62
• NASDAQ up 21
• S&P 500 up 10

CAMPAIGN 2012:

Former President George H. W. Bush endorsed Gov. Mitt Romney today.

(Earlier this year, Romney was the only one of the current presidential candidates to attend a tribute event for Pres. Bush at the Kennedy Center in Washington organized by the Points of Light Institute. THE EVENING REPORT was there that night and met President Bush and Governor Romney)

RON PAUL is surging in Iowa, although his campaign is coming under new questions about documents that have surfaced (similar- maybe even identical- to ones that surfaced with allegations of racism in 2008). Yesterday, Paul even walked out of an interview with CNN’s Glorida Borger.

And as NBC’s Domenico Montanaro reports, there may be more skeletons in the closet set to come out in these final days before the Caucus:

• No federal regulations for car safety, medicines, even air traffic control
• Don’t regulate raw milk:
• Heroin, marijuana, cocaine, prostitution OK if states allow them
• - No air conditioning for troops (as a way to bring them home)
• Against the Americans with Disabilities Act
• No FEMA
• Believes Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are unconstitutional

The question is how many of these past statements and positions, many which are quintessentially Ron Paul, will have staying power.

GINGRICH HAS A NEW NICKNAME FOR ROMNEY- via National Journal-

“When a Massachusetts moderate says I’m not conservative, it makes me want to laugh when he goes down that road,” Gingrich told radio host Tony Powers, responding to the former Bay State governor’s frequent charge. “When a Massachusetts moderate says Newt Gingrich is not conservative enough, other than break up laughing I don’t know what the correct response would be.”

Gingrich also criticized another rival, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, who also has run ads critical of the former House speaker. “Paul’s case is different because he believes in legalizing drugs … thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a nuclear weapon and believes Americans are responsible for 9/11, which makes no sense.”

GALLUP TRACKING POLL: Gingrich 27, Romney 21, Paul 12, Perry 7, Bachmann 6, Santorum 4, Huntsman 1, Cain

GINGRICH averages a 3.8% lead in an average of national polls for the Republican nomination

RON PAUL leads an average of recent polls in IOWA, topping Romney by 3.5%

In NEW HAMPSHIRE, MITT ROMNEY has a 13 point average lead over Newt Gingrich

The near-reverse is the case in SOUTH CAROLINA, where GINGRICH has a 16 point lead over Romney

And in FLORIDA, the last of the early primary states (at the end of January), GINGRICH retains a 18 point lead over Mitt Romney.

FINALLY…Matt Damon still has some beef with President Obama. Actually, a lot of beef. And he told Elle Magazine that the President should think about leaving after one term. From the Huffington Post-

“I’ve talked to a lot of people who worked for Obama at the grassroots level. One of them said to me, ‘Never again. I will never be fooled again by a politician,’” Damon tells the magazine. “You know, a one-term president with some balls who actually got stuff done would have been, in the long run of the country, much better.”

Referring to the Occupy Wall Street movement, Damon continued: “If the Democrats think that they didn’t have a mandate — people are literally without any focus or leadership, just wandering out into the streets to yell right now because they are so pissed off … Imagine if they had a leader.”

The slam follows in the same vein as a number of other criticisms Damon has made of the President and the Democrats, including in March, when he criticized Obama’s education policy.

“I really think he misinterpreted his mandate. A friend of mine said to me the other day, I thought it was a great line, ‘I no longer hope for audacity,’” Damon told CNN host Piers Morgan. “He’s doubled down on a lot of things, going back to education… the idea that we’re testing kids and we’re tying teachers salaries to how kids are performing on tests, that kind of mechanized thinking has nothing to do with higher order. We’re training them, not teaching them.”

HAPPY HANUKKAH!

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