The Golden Report

5 DAYS UNTIL THE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY (25 delegates)
8 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
15 DAYS UNTIL THE FLORIDA PRIMARY (50 delegates)

POST-DEBATE EDITION

TONIGHT…from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina…the 16th Republican Presidential Candidates Debate.

And it was fight night in Myrtle Beach.

Four of the five remaining candidates recognized that they have four hours over two of the next four nights to knock off the front-runner before he makes it 3 for 3 in the early primary states.

From POLITICO’s Alexander Burns, “South Carolina GOP debate: Mitt Romney pressed on Bain, tax returns”

“While Romney stayed focused on a tightly controlled and almost entirely familiar message, there were a few rare moments when the former Massachusetts governor appeared to stammer and grasp for balance.

And after weeks of declining to promise to release his tax returns, Romney relented — mostly — under persistent questioning from moderators.

“In history, people have released them around April of the coming year and that’s probably what I’ll do,” Romney conceded.

Among Romney’s opponents, Newt Gingrich was first to start the pile-on, accusing Romney and his former private equity firm, Bain Capital, of having acquired companies, “leaving them with enormous debt and then within a year or two or three, having them go broke.”

THE DEBATE WAS FIERCE

Romney responding to Gingrich’s attacks on his Super PACs “If we’re talking about super PAC ads that are inaccurate, Mr. Speaker, you have a super PAC ad that attacks me. It’s probably the biggest hoax since Bigfoot. The people who’ve looked at it said it was entirely false…somehow for you …to suggest I have different standards here is not quite right.”

Romney answering a question about the last time he went hunting “I’m not going to describe all of my great exploits,” Romney began, “but I went moose-hunting —- went elk-hunting with friends in Montana.”

Newt Gingrich responding to Ron Paul’s comparison of Al-Qaeda terrorists (including Osama bin Laden) to Chinese dissidents: “He’s not a Chinese dissident. The analogy that Congressman Paul used was utterly irrational. A Chinese dissident who comes here seeking freedom is not the same as a terrorist who comes to Pakistan seeking asylum.”

Ron Paul invoking MLK: “Martin Luther King would be in agreement with me on the wars as well, I’m the only Republican who favors total withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan He was a strong opponent of the Vietnam War.”

Ron Paul on building the US Embassy in Iraq “You consider that defense spending - I consider that waste.”

SANTORUM’S BIG MOMENT IN THE DEBATE- from POLITICO’s Maggie Haberman

“Rick Santorum seized control of the Fox News/Wall Street Journal debate about 20 minutes in Monday night, interrogating Mitt Romney with a series of questions about his position on voting rights for felons – and attack ads a pro-Romney super PAC is airing against Santorum.

Santorum noted that Restore Our Future, the pro-Romney group, ran ads implying the Pennsylvanian wanted to let felons vote from prison.

In fact, Santorum said, he wanted to give voting rights to people who had already paid their debt to society.

“I would ask Gov. Romney,” Santorum said, “do you believe people who are felons who have served their time, who have exhausted their parole and probation, should they be given the right to vote?”

When Romney began with a few words about the rules governing super PACs and non-coordination, Santorum cut in to demand an answer to his question.

“That’s how you got the time. It’s actually my time,” Santorum said, adding of the voting rights issue: “This is Martin Luther King Day, this is a huge deal in the African-American community.”

Romney responded in a level tone: “I don’t think people who committed violent crimes should be allowed to vote again.”

And that’s when it became clear that Santorum had set a trap.

“In the state of Massachusetts, when you were governor, the law was not only can violent felons vote,” Santorum said, but they can vote when on parole or probation – a “more liberal position” than Santorum ever supported.

“If in fact you felt so passionately about this,” Santorum asked, “then why didn’t you try to change that when you were governor of Massachusetts?”

Romney shot back that he had to contend with an 85 percent Democratic legislature and that, by the way, he didn’t order a super PAC hit on Santorum because that would be illegal.”

FIRST THOUGHTS:

This was not a good debate for Romney who was off his game tonight. He should be considering these debates as practice for the general election cycle and he missed an opportunity to respond with crisp convincing answers to a whole host of questions tonight

Newt Gingrich did very well tonight in his role as attack dog and conservative cheerleader. The question now is if its enough to carry him to a close 2nd place or an upset victory in Saturday’s primary. And with polls released this weekend showing Romney running away with the lead in the state, that is not looking likely.

Ron Paul had his worst debate and seemed to be stumbling over his answers when he finally had an opportunity to answer the moderator’s questions.

The audience for tonight’s debate was wild. The Myrtle Beach Convention Center hall was packed and they were animated..frequently booing candidates up and down the stage..and moderators too.

It’s too early to say if tonight’s debate changed the dynamics of the South Carolina race. It may be too little too late for the anybody but Romney candidates. Or the Republican primary, which seemed late last week to be all but over, could be taking one more, final, crazy turn.

The next debate is Thursday night at the Citadel.

11 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
14 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
21 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

PRIMARY EDITION

THE LATEST RESULTS:
77.7% OF THE VOTE IN

ROMNEY 38.3%
PAUL 23.2%
HUNTSMAN 16.9%
GINGRICH 9.7%
SANTORUM 9.6%

ROMNEY’S VICTORY-

The Union-Leader’s Headline: “NH Speaks: It’s Romney”
Boston Globe- “Romney a solid first, Paul second in N.H…Fmr Mass. Governor Gets Decisive GOP Win”

THE GLOBE-

“In his victory speech to the cheering crowd, Romney turned his fire mainly on Democratic President Barack Obama, saying, “This president has run out of ideas; now he’s running out of excuses.”

He said Obama wants to “put free enterprise on trial. … I stand ready to lead us down a different path, where we’re lifted up by our desire to succeed, not dragged down by resentment of success.”

“He apologizes for America, and I will never apologize for the greatest nation in the history of the earth,” Romney said.

FIRST THOUGHTS ON THE ROMNEY WIN:

With some vote still left to come in, Romney is running ahead of John McCain’s winning percentage from 2008, but still below expectations in the last week that he would top 40% of the popular vote. It look as if Romney will finish at 37, 38 or 39 percent.

Ron Paul finishes with a strong second place standing. It’s difficult to see where his campaign goes next- although they will compete strongly in the caucuses through the winter and spring. Does tonight’s second-place finish by Paul make him more likely to mount a third party candidacy in November?

Jon Huntsman’s third place finish is a disappointing result for the former Utah Governor, but the candidate does say that he will be going on to South Carolina. The bigger question is how Huntsman’s campaign regroups and develops a strategy.

Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are nearly tied for fourth place, but this is not particularly surprising. Santorum did not spend a lot of money in New Hampshire over the last week and Gingrich’s standing with New Hampshire voters was well known. Both are expected to vie with Rick Perry in South Carolina on the 21st.

No candidate is expected to drop out of the race over the next week before the South Carolina debates beginning next Monday and the primary a week from Saturday.

ALL FIVE CANDIDATES DELIVERED STATEMENTS TO SUPPORTERS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT

RICK PERRY, IN SOUTH CAROLINA, RELEASED THIS STATEMENT

“Tonight’s results in New Hampshire show the race for ‘conservative alternative’ to Mitt Romney remains wide open. I skipped New Hampshire and aimed my campaign right at conservative South Carolina, where we’ve been campaigning hard and receiving an enthusiastic welcome. I believe being the only nonestablishment outsider in the race, the proven fiscal and social conservative and proven job creator will win the day in South Carolina.

“South Carolina is the next stop. I have a head start here, and it’s friendly territory for a Texas governor and veteran with solid outsider credentials; the nation’s best record of job creation; and solid fiscal, social and tea party conservatism.”

ROMNEY’S VICTORY WAS DECISIVE- from POLITICO’s EMILY SCHULTHEIS- who took a look at tonight’s exit polls

“He was the first pick of a full 30 percent of voters who described themselves as “very conservative,” followed by Rick Santorum at 29 percent. He had a strong lead among those who described themselves as “somewhat conservative,” with 45 percent choosing him; he also led among self-described “moderates” and “liberals” with 35 percent.

Still, exit polls found that a full third of New Hampshire voters said they wanted another candidate in the race — only 65 percent said they were “satisfied” with the current GOP field, while 32 percent said they would like to see another candidate join the race.

Also worth noting was the high number of independents voting in tonight’s primary — a group that will be fiercely contested by both parties next fall. A full 45 percent of those coming to the polls said they were registered independents, and 47 percent of total voters tonight described themselves as independents. Both Romney and Ron Paul did well among independents — with registered independents, Romney led at 32 percent, followed by Paul at 30 percent and Jon Huntsman at 23 percent.

The former Massachusetts governor even led among New Hampshire evangelical voters, with 27 percent of that group picking Romney. Santorum took second place with the evangelical vote at 26 percent, followed by Paul at 10 percent.

One group Romney did not win, however, is the youth vote — a group that went strongly for Paul, as it did in Iowa. Paul got the support of 46 percent of voters aged 18 to 29, with Romney coming in a distant second at 21 percent. Romney, however, had a strong advantage with older voters: He won 45- to 64-year-olds with 39 percent and the 65 and older vote with 39 percent.

THE DEMOCRATS:

Vice President Joe Biden spoke via video-conference to about 2,000 Democratic supporters in New Hampshire tonight.

President Obama is traveling to Chicago tomorrow, to attend a re-election fundraiser and, likely, stop by his re-election headquarters

THE HEADLINES TONIGHT

Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire. Officially, he is now 2 for 2 in the contests so far this primary season.

No candidates are dropping out after tonight’s results.

It’s on to South Carolina, where Gingrich, Santorum and Perry are going to attack Romney over Bain Capital. 

4 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
15 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
18 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
25 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

FRIDAY’S EARLY EDITION

TOP STORY: The Labor Department reported this morning that the US economy gained 200,000 jobs last month, which dropped the unemployment rate to 8.5%.

It is the lowest level of unemployment since February 2009, the month that President Obama took office. It is also the sixth consecutive month of private sector job growth.

Still, 5.6 million Americans have been out of work for six months or longer, chronically unemployed and the unemployment rate does not reflect the millions of Americans who are no longer counted as part of the labor pool because they have dropped out and stopped looking for work.

PRESIDENT OBAMA, for whom the economy holds the key to re-election, trumpeted today’s news as he took a political victory lap of sorts at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in Washington, where he visited the newly appointed Commissioner, Richard Cordray. 

“This morning we learned that American businesses added another 212,000 jobs last month. All together more private-sector jobs were created in 2011 than any year since 2005,” he said.

“There are a lot of people that are still hurting out there, after losing more than 8 million jobs in the recession. Obviously, we have a lot more work to do. But it is important for the American people to recognize we added 3.2 million new private-sector jobs in the last 22 months, nearly 2 million new jobs last year alone….

“One of reasons is the tax cut we put in place last year.When Congress returns, they should extend the payroll tax cut all year. There should not be delay, there should not be a lot of drama.”

COMING ATTRACTION: The debate over extending the payroll tax cut through the end of the year will resume when Congress returns to town at the end of the month. Some believe that it is the only significant piece of legislation that Congress may move this year.

WALL STREET: for all the seemingly good economic news this week, the Dow managed to end the day slightly lower.

• DOW down 56
• NASDAQ down 3
• S&P 500 up 4

CAMPAIGN 2012

Just four days to go before New Hampshire votes and the politics of debate-prep and expectations setting drove the day today

ANOTHER SERIAL HYPOCRITE- and the latest in a theme of Ron Paul’s attack ads against fellow Republicans in the race. Today, the Paul campaign announced a $250,000 ad buy in South Carolina- home to Saturday January 21st primary- attacking Rick Santorum and calling his a “record of betrayal”  

WASHINGTON POST HEADLINE TONIGHT AND THE SUNDAY SHOWS THIS WEEKEND- Romney Looking To Wrap Things Up By End of Month- from Philip Rucker in Tilton, NH

“Buoyed by a narrow win in the Iowa caucuses and his commanding lead in the New Hampshire polls, Romney has turned his attention to South Carolina, where he is dispatching a slew of high-profile surrogates and relocating his staff ahead of the Jan. 21 primary. Looking further ahead, Romney has begun a massive advertising blitz in Florida and launched an aggressive outreach program to early voters in the state.

Romney campaign advisers insist they are taking the race one state at a time and not taking any contest for granted. Yet Republican observers see Romney executing an ambitious strategy that would quickly maximize his momentum and try to quash any further surges by his rivals.

“If Romney wins the first four states, he’ll be the de facto nominee of the party,” said Steve Schmidt, a senior strategist on Sen. John McCain’s 2008 campaign who is unaffiliated in the current race. Ed Rogers, another unaffiliated Republican strategist, said the notion that Romney may wrap up the nomination by Jan. 31 is “perfectly plausible.”

NEW POLLS OUT TODAY PROVIDE A SNAPSHOT OF THE RACE

ROMNEY UP BY 24 IN WMUR NH PRIMARY POLL: Romney 44%, Paul 20%, Santorum 8%, Gingrich 8%, HUNTSMAN 7%, Perry 1%

AND BY THE SAME MARGIN IN RASMUSSEN’S NH SURVEY: Romney 42%, Paul 18%, Santorum 13%, Huntsman 12%, Gingrich 8%, Perry 1%

IN SOUTH CAROLINA, CNN HAS HIM LEADING SANTORUM BY 18: Romney 37%, Santorum 19%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 12%, Perry 5%, Huntsman 1%

BUT RASMUSSEN SAYS ITS CLOSER, WITH ROMNEY ONLY LEADING BY 3: Romney 27%,Santorum 24%, Gingrich 18% , Paul 11%, Perry 5%, Huntsman 2%

DRIVING THE POLITICAL WORLD- The New York Times’ Jodi Kantor is out with a new book- which paints an unflattering view of the Obama Administration, with sources deep inside The West Wing. President and Mrs. Obama were not interviewed for the book.

WHAT WE’RE LEARNING- Former Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel offered his resignation to the President in the winter of 2010 at the end of the divisive health care debate. Kantor also exposes a rife between Emanual and First Lady Michelle Obama. From the Huffington Post’s White House Correspondent Sam Stein, reporting on the book:

“Once the administration began, the frictions only escalated. Emanuel rejected Michelle Obama’s efforts to be part of his 7:30 a.m. staff meeting. The administration did not outfit her with a speechwriter for some time. And the first lady’s office grew so isolated from the rest of the presidential orbit that aides there began, as Kantor writes, “referring to the East Wing as ‘Guam’ — pleasant but powerless.”

“Michelle and Rahm Emanuel had almost no bond; their relationship was distant and awkward from the beginning. She had been skeptical of him when he was selected, and now he returned the favor; he was uneasy about first ladies in general, several aides close to him said, based on clashes with Hillary Clinton in the 1990s that became so severe that she had tried to fire him from her husband’s administration,” writes Kantor. “Now Emanuel was chief of staff, a position that almost never included an easy relationship with the first lady. They were the president’s two spouses, in a sense, one public and official and one private and informal.”

AND MORE ABOUT THE FIRST LADY “Michelle Obama, who came to politics skeptically but saw her husband as someone capable of lofty achievements, lashed out against her isolation. She sent emails to [Obama Counselor Valarie] Jarrett when she had complaints about news coverage, which Jarrett would forward to others after removing the first lady’s name from them. When she couldn’t wedge herself into her husband’s schedule, she would send her missives to Alyssa Mastromonaco, the president’s director of scheduling. The emails, Kantor writes, “were so stern that Mastromonaco showed them around to colleagues, unsure of how to respond to her boss’s wife’s displeasure.”

THIS BOOK has the power to drive the White House off its new, revived, 2012 message, if the Administration allows it to do so. Watch to see over the next week how the White House officially responds, and what unofficial message they send as they play damage control.

AND FINALLY…The Bieb’s Got The Ink. NBC Entertainment reports:

“If you ever questioned the Biebs’ religious beliefs, this oughta clear it up for you.

In addition to his dove and Hebrew script of Jesus’ name on his rib cage ( matching with pops…awww), Justin Bieber showed off his new ink on the back of his calf while going to Shakey’s Pizza with his dad and some friends today.

The 17-year-old got a portrait of Jesus Christ’s face. Is it shocking?

To some it may seem that way, but Bieber has never been shy when it comes to religion. His movie, “Never Say Never,” even has some Christian reflection.

“People will walk away (from the movie) knowing faith is very important to him,” Scooter Braun, Bieber’s manager and one of the film’s producers told USA Today. “As a Christian, he’s someone to look up to…When [fans] are getting the real person is when they can connect to that person.”

“I believe that Jesus died on a cross for my sins,” Bieber told Billboard last November. “He’s the reason that I’m here.”

6 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
17 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
20 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
27 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

It was a busy news day. Here’s a look at what’s happened today:

• Mitt Romney officially won the Iowa Caucus by eight votes over Rick Santorum.
• Michele Bachmann said she was suspending her presidential campaign.
• Rick Perry returned to Texas, and then announced that he would be staying in the race, participating in this weekend’s debates and competing in the South Carolina Primary later this month.
• 2008 Republican Nominee John McCain endorsed Mitt Romney in New Hampshire.
• President Obama appointed Richard Cordray to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, using a controversial recess appointment. He used the same authority to nominate three members of the National Labor Relations Board.

THE MAN OF THE DAY: RICK SANTORUM, who sent a shock wave through the Republican Party by earning 25% of last night’s Iowa Caucus vote. Today, Santorum moved on to New Hampshire as he faces the seemingly daunting task of building a campaign organization that is able to go toe-to-toe with Mitt Romney.

HE’S RAISED A MILLION DOLLARS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS: reports Jonathan Martin “their server briefly went down under the crush last night, said almost all of the cash came online.”

AND/BUT MITT ROMNEY WON THE DAY, says Maggie Habberman, “To be sure, Rick Santorum has had a good day - he’s still being treated as the clearest anti-Romney candidate, and he got helpful ink from the Wall Street Journal editorial page and columnist George Will. But Romney’s day was better.”

AND JMART SAYS ITS GOING TO BE HARD TO STOP ROMNEY NOW:

“Conservatives got a stark reminder Wednesday about just how difficult it will be to block his path to the nomination. Romney’s conservative opposition remains split and unable to unify behind a single alternative — all the more so with Rick Perry deciding to stay in the race Wednesday after hinting he might step aside. A high-profile Christian conservative, Gary Bauer, said he had no intention of joining a campaign to take down Romney.

And even second-place Iowa finisher Rick Santorum’s momentum hardly seemed enough to slow Romney in New Hampshire, where the former Massachusetts governor is sitting on a double-digit lead with five days until the primary.
Because of the divided nature of the opposition and Romney’s organizational and financial advantages, GOP elites made the case Wednesday that there was no clear way he could be stopped.”

A ‘VICTORY LAP’ IS EXACTLY HOW THE NEW YORK TIMES DESCRIBES ROMNEY’S DAY:

“After a round of morning television show appearances and a ride in a Boeing 737 packed with reporters, Mr. Romney headed for a high school gymnasium where he accepted the endorsement of a onetime bitter rival, Senator John McCain. He also showed off his network of support in the state, where the nation’s first primary takes place Tuesday, appearing with former Gov. John H. Sununu and Senator Kelly Ayotte, an indication of how the Republican establishment was rallying to his side.

“Do we think we can get more than an eight-vote margin here in New Hampshire?” he asked the crowd, a joking reference to his remarkably slim margin of victory in Iowa.

While Mr. Romney dominated the day-after-Iowa news coverage with his victory lap here, Mr. Santorum and his staff were slowly making the 1,400-mile journey from Des Moines in a King Air propeller plane that did not deliver them here until suppertime, too late to make a star turn on the evening news. He made a nighttime turn on Fox News and CNN and landed in time for a rally that drew hundreds.”

BUT, ABOUT THAT MCCAIN ENDORSEMENT- the Huffington Post’s Jon Ward thought the event was lackluster, much like Romney’s speech early this morning in Iowa:

“Mitt Romney’s first event here in the state where he enjoys a huge home-field advantage offered a rude awakening.

Three of the first four questioners were openly hostile to Romney, although one of them was an Occupy Manchester activist. And even the endorsement and appearance of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) failed to arouse much of a reaction from the Granite Staters in attendance.”

WHY POLITICAL ADVANCE IS SO IMPORTANT: ”And much of the blame probably lay with campaign planners, who scheduled Romney for an event at a time when most politically active people are working and put him in front of an audience made up in part of apathetic high school students. They also rushed McCain out onto the big stage so he could dominate the cable news during the afternoon, rather than waiting for an early-evening town hall in Peterborough, one of McCain’s favorite settings in the state.”

TONIGHT McCain and Romney made a joint appearance on Hannity.

SO WHAT’S NEXT?

Saturday- 14th Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, St. Anslem College, 9pm/ABC News
Sunday- Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, Mancheser, NH 9am/NBC News
Tuesday- New Hampshire Primary
Monday January 16th- Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, Myrtle Beach, SC
Thursday January 19th- 17th Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, Charleston, SC
Saturday January 21st- South Carolina Primary

SANTORUM MISSES DEADLINE FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA APRIL 3RD PRIMARY- “Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry and Mitt Romney all filed the required information by today’s 5 p.m. deadline and will appear on the ballot for DC’s April 3 primary. Michele Bachmann, who dropped her presidential bid earlier today, also did not file”

JON HUNTSMAN ON AIR IN NEW HAMPSHIRE: ”We’re getting screwed as Americans” his new ad - also his first- says.

PRESIDENT OBAMA went to Ohio today, his first public appearance of 2012 in a key battleground state. And the White House began the year fighting, choosing to usurp Senatorial custom and interpret the President’s constitutional authority to issue recess appointments broadly, nominating Richard Cordray as the first director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

IN THIS MOVE, National Journal’s Stacy Kaper and Dan Friedman find clues to the President’s re-election strategy

“In one bold stroke, Obama broke what Democrats called an unprecedented GOP attempt to hold up installation of any CFPB chief unless Democrats agreed to change the agency’s structure. Republicans filibustered Cordray’s nomination last month. 

Obama’s move marks a new step in a procedural arms race in which both parties, while professing outrage, counter each other’s obstruction with new procedural tactics. Legally, Cordray has no better claim to a recess appointment than any other pending nominee. But because Republicans blocked Cordray on the grounds that they oppose the bureau rather than think him unqualified, Democrats feel they have a stronger political case for installing him.

Lawyers of all stripes agree that legal challenges are inevitable, and that, like the health care law, they could ultimately wind up before the Supreme Court.”

LOOK FOR AN INCREASINGLY COMBATIVE WHITE HOUSE to continue its “We Can’t Wait” strategy in the weeks ahead, portraying President Obama as a “warrior for the Middle Class”- a likely theme for this year’s State of the Union Address

WALL STREET- from CNBC- “The Dow and S&P clawed back into positive territory at the close Wednesday, adding to the sharp rally from the previous session, but gains were limited over renewed fears over the euro zone debt crisis.”

• DOW up 21
• NASDAQ down 0.36
• S&P 500 up 0.24

FINALLY… The Iowa Caucus results didn’t come in until very early this morning and cable news anchors stayed on the air  through it all. CNN’s coverage after 1am provided a lot of great bloopers

Here’s Erin Burnett flicking a magic wall, Anderson Cooper saying “have we all just given up here?” and “I don’t know what the hell a social media screen is” and Wolf Blitzer looking anxious in “Late Night Takes over CNN Anchors“ 

Here’s Piers Morgan clearly interrupting Anderson Cooper when he was about to follow-up with a question 

AND THE BEST VIDEO OF THE NIGHT Here’s Wolf Blitzer and John King ON THE PHONE with Clinton County Election Officials Edith & Carolyn, including “what do you mean the numbers don’t match?” 

WELCOME to our new subscribers who came via a link in this morning’s COLLEGE DAYBREAK. Welcome to the Evening Report, we’re glad to have you! 

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7 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
18 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
21 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS

CAUCUS EDITION

BREAKING: Texas Govenror Rick Perry has just said he will reassess his presidential campaign and return to Texas- canceling a full line up of events planned in South Carolina tomorrow. 

THE LATEST- ROMNEY AND SANTORUM IN VIRTUAL TIE FOR IOWA- The Washington Post’s Karen Tumulty

“Three sharply different Republican candidates were on course to split the bulk of votes in Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses as a chaotic campaign season culminated with the first real ballots cast.

With 96 percent of precincts reporting at 11:40 p.m. Eastern, former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.) was in a virtual tie with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, leading him by just 79 votes. Both of them hovered around 24.6 percent of the total, with Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) close behind at 21 points. It seemed possible that this year’s winner — whoever it turns out to be — would finish with the lowest percentage total of any GOP winner in Iowa’s modern history, sinking below Bob Dole’s 26 percent in 1996.”

THE ORDER LEAVING IOWA

FIRST/SECOND: SANTORUM/ROMNEY- separated by TENS of votes
THIRD: PAUL
FOURTH: GINGRICH
FIFTH : PERRY
SIXTH: BACHMANN

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

One week from tonight, we’ll be reporting on the New Hampshire Primary. Between now and then, there are two debates- on Saturday night and Sunday morning on Meet The Press. the first question will be if all of the second tier candidates (Gingrich, Perry and Bachmann) go on. The next question will be which of the candidates decide to compete in New Hampshire, where Romney has held a commanding lead for months, and which go on to South Carolina, which holds its primary two weeks from this coming Saturday.

Four weeks from tonight, Florida will hold its primary, the fourth early state of the season. Today, the Romney campaign announced that they have begun airing television ads in the Sunshine State, the first major campaign to do so. As we reported last night, Romney is already on the air in South Carolina, with a $260,000 ad buy.

THIS HAPPENED TONIGHT

SHOT- @RonPaul: @jonhuntsman we found your one Iowa voter, he’s in Linn precinct 5 you might want to call him and say thanks

CHASER- Huntsman spokesperson- “We find it odd that Congressman Paul would attack Gov. Huntsman in such a childish fashion. Just the latest in a long line of odd statements from him.”

THE BATTLE FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE- Fourth place finisher Newt Gingrich is going to take the gloves off. This full page ad is running tomorrow in the New Hampshire Union Leaderhttp://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/01/newt-to-make-sidebyside-comparison-with-mitt-in-the-109494.html. This confirms earlier reporting by NBC’s Andrea Mitchell tonight.

UPDATE: And in his speech to supporters in Iowa tonight, Gingrich seemed angry…no where close to dropping out..and ready to serve the role of attack dog against Romney in the New Hampshire debates and then in South Carolina…which will allow Santorum the time he needs to build an organization 

AWKWARD MOMENT: Rick Santorum’s nephew endorsed Ron Paul today. From the Des Moines Register, “John Garver, a student at the University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown,  endorsed Paul in a column published today in The Daily Caller, a news web site launched  last year by political pundit Tucker Carlson and former GOP adviser Neil Patel.

In the piece, Garver said Santorum’s “interventionist policies, both domestic and foreign, stem from his irrational fear of freedom not working”

The 19-year-old went on to say: “It is because of this inability of status quo politicians to recognize the importance of our individual liberties that I have been drawn to Ron Paul. Unlike my uncle, he does not believe that the American people are incapable of forming decisions. He believes that an individual is more powerful than any group (a notion our founding fathers also believed in).”

ANSWERING THE QUESTIONS. In the Des Moines Register this morning, political writer Jennifer Jacobs floated the following questions- what she would be looking for tonight (as reported in James Hobbermann’s Morning Score today)

Can Bachmann and Perry keep their people, or will they go to Santorum?
It went to Perry.

Will Bachmann get fewer votes than she got in the Iowa straw poll (just under 5,000)?
So far, yes.

Can Perry right the ship and finish ahead of Gingrich?
Nope.

Is the ‘Santorum surge’ real?
Indeed.

Will Paul do better or worse than polling predicts?
Better.

Will the evangelicals lock arms behind a single candidate?
Apparently.

Will the desire to beat President Barack Obama drive voters to Mitt Romney, the candidate whom likely caucusgoers consider most electable?
Electability was key, but conservatism was moreso.

If Paul pulls this off, is it evidence of passion for a candidate and his ideas, or disenchantment with both political parties and a sign that voters are so frustrated they’re willing to upset the apple cart?
He didn’t pull it off

Will Iowa beat the record turnout? [The GOP record is 118,411 in 2008.]
It was very close, and it looks like a record. 

WALL STREET- from CNBC- “Stocks Kick Off 2012 With a Bang, Led by Banks”

• DOW up 180
• NASDAQ up 44
• S&P 500 up 20

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1 DAY UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
8 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
19 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
22 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS

QUOTE OF THE DAY (SHOT) “I don’t think I’m going to win,” Newt Gingrich, to ABC News about his chances in tomorrow’s Iowa Caucus

AND/BUT (CHASER) ”We may pull off one of the greatest upsets in the history of the Iowa caucuses,” Newt Gingrich in a tele-town hall later tonight

QUOTE OF THE DAY RUNNER UP: “You got a name? You got a name? You got a name?” Rick Perry to POLITICO’s Mike Allen after being challenged to answer questions about the loyalty of his campaign advisors.

AND FINALLY...RICK SANTORUM SAID THE FOLLOWING TODAY ”I don’t want to make black people’s lives better by giving them somebody else’s money; I want to give them the opportunity to go out and earn the money.”

TODAY ON THE TRAIL- All over the state. From the Washington Post’s team of political reporters group-filing tomorrow’s A1 lead piece:

“Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s agenda included four cities, spread over 269 miles. Former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.) drove a 171-mile circuit around Iowa’s navel. And Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.), the third candidate in the lead pack, began a long trek across northeastern part of the state, making five stops over 391 miles.”

“Over the past few months, Iowa has embraced and then rejected four charismatic front-runners: Rep. Michele Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich and pizza executive Herman Cain.”

KEY PASSAGE: “Now, the state seems set to split its vote among three candidates chosen, instead, for the ideas they represent.

For Romney, those are steadiness and electability.

For Paul, they are small government and personal liberty.

And Santorum’s appeal is based on his socially conservative views on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.”

WHAT WE MISSED: Newt Gingrich is recovering from the flu, which his campaign says was particularly bad on Friday and Saturday last week

THE LATEST FROM SANTORUM- He’s facing very tough questions about his endorsement of Mitt Romney in 2008 and about his position on abortion- and conflicting statements he gave on both during a Meet the Press interview yesterday. As Santorum is surging in the polls, he is now undergoing intensive media scrutiny.

THE LATEST FROM ROMNEY- He won the day. According to POLITICO’s Alexander Burns.

“…There were three good omens for Romney Monday that suggest no matter who wins in Iowa, he’ll be in good shape for the long haul.

The first was a harsh attack on Rick Santorum, mounted by Rick Perry on cable TV and on the campaign trail. The Texan blasted Santorum for having “raised the debt limit more than Obama” and supporting “the bridge to nowhere in Arizona” (he meant Alaska.) Both Perry and his wife, Anita, vowed to press on after Iowa, taking their campaign to South Carolina and also New Hampshire, where Perry isn’t scheduled to appear this week.

Perry wasn’t the only other Republican attacking Santorum. In a second Romney-friendly development, Ron Paul’s campaign got in on the action, with national chairman Jesse Benton accusing Santorum of having a “horrible record on the Second Amendment,” and telling POLITICO Santorum’s record on “so many other issues is so poor he can’t stand up to real criticism.”

And in a third, counterintuitively pro-Romney turn of events, Newt Gingrich vowed to stay in the race past Iowa and train his guns more intently on the GOP front-runner, whose supporters Gingrich blames for tearing down his own campaign.”

AND THEN ROMNEY PREDICTED VICTORY, TELLLING SUPPORTERS TONIGHT

“We’re going to win this thing with all our passion and strength and do everything we can to get this campaign on the right track to go across the nation and to pick up the states and to get the ballots I need and the votes I need to become our nominee. That’s what we’re going to get, with your help.

THE LATEST FROM PAUL- National Journal- “Paul Battles Assumptions He Can’t Win Outside Iowa”

“Paul has sought to defy the conventional wisdom that his campaign will end in Iowa by beginning to air television ads in New Hampshire, which votes Jan. 10, and in South Carolina, which holds its primary on Jan. 21”

Indeed, Paul is on the air in New Hampshire with what his campaign his calling his “closing argument”

INSIDER ADVANTAGE POLL TODAY GIVES ADVANTAGE ROMNEY, but the top three are well within the margin of error

Romney 23%
Paul 22%
Santorum 18%
Gingrich 16%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 2%

PPP POLL TODAY GIVES ADVANTAGE PAUL, but still, we have a three-way race on our hands. 

Paul 20%
Romney 19%
Santorum 18%
Gingrich 14%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 8%
Huntsman 4%

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT

• Caucus officially starts at 8pm.
• The first results should start coming in at about 8:30pm.
• Four years ago, Sen. Obama’s victory in Iowa was declared at 9:25pm ET.

• In 2008, Republicans saw a record caucus turnout of 118,000+ and many party officials also expect a record or near-record turnout this year.
• There are more than 1,700 precincts in Iowa that will be holding caucuses tomorrow night.

• In the modern primary system, only one Republican has won Iowa and gone on to be elected President (George W. Bush in 2000)
• In 2008, John McCain became the only Republican to finish outside of the Iowa top 3 and still go on to become the nominee
• Herbert Hoover is the only Iowan to be elected President

2008 REPUBLICAN IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS

Mike Huckabee 34.4%
Mitt Romney 25.2%
Fred Thompson 13.4%
John McCain 13%
Ron Paul 9.9%
Rudy Giuliani 3.4%
Turnout: 118,411

2008 Iowa Presidential Vote: Barack Obama 828,940 (54%) John McCain 682,379 (44%)

THE EVENING REPORT’S CONVENTIONAL WISDOM:

Mitt Romney will become the Republican nominee. He may face a challenge from the Republican right over the next six weeks but it will not be long, drawn out or fatal. A Santorum or Paul win in Iowa ultimately helps Romney. Santorum doesn’t have the organization to compete nationally and he will be crushed in New Hampshire next week. Paul is too crazy to ever win the Republican nomination or the presidency. It will be clear that Romney is the nominee by the State of the Union in three weeks. He may lose some states during the primary season and because of the way the party is awarding delegates, it may not be until March when he officially becomes the nominee, but everyone will know in a matter of days or weeks that 2012 will be Obama v. Romney.

COMING ATTRACTION: GOP BATTLE PLAN AGAINST OBAMA: USE HIS OWN WORDS AGAINST HIM- The Washington Post Monday top story-

“GOP officials in Washington are quietly and methodically finishing what operatives are calling “the book” — 500 pages of Obama quotes and video links that will form the backbone of the party’s attack strategy against the president leading up to Election Day 2012.

The document, portions of which were reviewed by The Washington Post, lays out how GOP officials plan to use Obama’s words and voice as they build an argument for his defeat: that he made specific promises and entered office with lofty expectations and has failed to deliver on both.

Republican officials say they will leverage the party’s newly catalogued video library containing every publicly available utterance from Obama since his 2008 campaign. Television and Internet ads will juxtapose specific Obama promises of job gains, homeowner assistance, help for people in poverty, lower health insurance premiums and stricter White House ethics standards against government data and news clippings that paint a different reality.

The decision by GOP officials to finalize a strategy at this stage underscores the view, in both parties, that the general-election campaign has begun — even if an official Republican nominee has not been selected.

The new GOP playbook is designed to take one of Obama’s great assets — the power of his oratory — and turn it into a liability. It details hundreds of potential targets, partially a result of a president who Republican strategists say is unusually prone to making detailed promises.”

FINALLY- Take a few minutes to think about how far we’ve come over the last six months leading up to tomorrow’s caucus- which itself is only the start of the Republican primary season. Through 13 debates, we’ve watched candidate after candidate rise and fall in public opinion polling. The title frontrunner has been awarded to Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney and, in the past week, we’ve seen the Santorum Surge. Tomorrow, Iowans caucus. And then, it’s on to New Hampshire…and South Carolina…and Florida…and Nevada…and…

WATCH- Political analyst & satirist James Kotecki today released a new video: The Iowa Surge Song (Old MacDonald Parody).

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2 DAYS UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
9 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
20 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
23 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

THE LATEST FROM IOWA- headline from The Fix’s Chris Cillizza- on the ground in Des Moines- “Romney has best odds, Santorum has the momentum”

CILLIZZA- “At this point, there’s not much left for the candidates — or the reporters who cover them — to do but wait and wonder.”

But, in fact, THERE IS ONE MORE NEWS CYCLE BETWEEN NOW AND CAUCUS DAY- So tomorrow is pivotal. Which of the following will be Monday’s story line?

• Santorum’s surge continues and he looks to be the come from behind winner of the Caucus
• Santorum’s support is falling as social conservatives take one final look. He’s likely to finish a close 2nd or 3rd behind Romney
• Perry’s support is growing and he is challenging Santorum and Paul for the top three
• Or something else

WHAT TO WATCH- does the Romney campaign engage with Santorum before Iowa or does the campaign (or perhaps the uncoordinated Super PACS supporting Romney) wait until the week before New Hampshire?

ONE THING IS CLEAR- the media is infatuated with Rick Santorum right now. For better or worse, he is getting all of the attention- and will through Caucus Day, unless something changes.

NEWT’S GOING NEGATIVE- but will it be too little too late for the embattled former frontrunner?

from POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin in MARSHALLTOWN, IOWA

“Leaving his pledge of a positive campaign behind, Gingrich pressed a tough line of attack that portrayed the former Massachusetts governor as soft on abortion - a major vulnerability for the frontrunner that hadn’t been raised directly by any of his opponents.

“I think New Hampshire is the perfect state to have a debate over Romneycare and to have a debate about tax-paid abortions, which he signed, and to have a debate about putting Planned Parenthood  on a government board, which he signed, and to have a debate about appointing liberal judges, which he did,” said Gingrich, starting in Marshalltown, Iowa, the case he’ll take to the Granite State and beyond next week.

Gingrich’s comments suggest that his contrast with Romney on taxes this week either didn’t penetrate or aren’t  sufficient to take down the frontrunner and that he needs to attack the former pro-abortion rights governor on a more explosive issue.”

QUOTE OF THE DAY- from Mitt Romney tonight in Council Bluffs, Iowa-

“You know, I’ve been looking at some video clips on YouTube, of President Obama, then candidate Obama, going through Iowa making promises. The gap between his promises and his performance is the largest I’ve seen since, well, the Kardashian wedding and the promise of ‘til death do us part.”

FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF NON-CONTENDERS IN THE IOWA CAUCUS: This interesting fundraising pitch from Jon Huntsman, who is skipping Iowa but making a run in New Hampshire next week, today in an e-mail to supporters:

“I am so humbled at the tremendous response we’ve received that today I am adding a special wrinkle: from now until midnight Wednesday, Mary Kaye and I will personally match – dollar for dollar – every new donation our campaign receives.

In just a few minutes, I will be holding a town hall in Deerfield, New Hampshire – our third event of the day, and 143rd event in the state. With only nine days to go until New Hampshire’s primary, it is critical that we have the resources – both on the ground and on TV – to compete with Mitt Romney.”

MORE FROM HUNTSMAN- A web video attack ad against RON PAUL’s foreign policy released this weekend, which is straight out of the Twilight Zone. Literally. 

THE POLL DRIVING THE WEEKEND- the Des Moines Register survey released at 8pm ET on New Year’s Eve- which found a three-way dead heat between ROMNEY, PAUL and SANTORUM

Romney 24%, Paul 22%, Santorum 15%, Gingrich 12%, Perry 11%, Bachmann 7%, Huntsman 2%

WAITING FOR the final PPP poll before the Caucus to be released later tonight

WHO WON THE DAY? Rick Santorum, according to POLITICO’s James Hohmann

“He’s facing intensifying scrutiny, but he’s also now THE center of attention out here, from Meet the Press to cable chatter. Momentum is his best friend. He’s in the right place at the right time.Voters we talked to at his event here make us feel like there’s definitely something of a bandwagon effect going on..”

TOMORROW’S TOP TALKER- New York Times- “Google Hones Its Advertising Message, Playing to Emotions”

“Though Google is a household name, it needs to tell its story now for a few reasons. It needs new businesses like the Chrome browser and the Google Plus social network to succeed if it is going to find sources of revenue beyond search ads.

The ads are also part of Google’s mission, led by Larry Page, its co-founder and chief executive, to pare down its product offering and make Google products more attractive, intuitive and integrated with one another

BIG QUOTE- “Google’s an online brand,” [Google Event Planner Lorin] Pollack said. “You can’t experience the brand except for typing keys. It’s a huge responsibility to actually bring that brand to life outside of the computer.”

AT THE BOX OFFICE- so far- results for the four day holiday weekend that is continuing-

1/ Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol $31.2 million
2/ Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows $22 million
3/ Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked $18.3 million
4/ War Horse $16.9 million
5/ The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo  $16.3 million

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL- GIANTS 14, DALLAS 0 with 4 minutes left in the 2nd

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6 DAYS UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
13 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
24 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

TOP STORY- “Romney, Santorum Rising in Iowa”- The Washington Post’s Amy Gardner on the ground in Des Moines-

“There was evidence of growing intensity on both sides of the argument [today] as the candidates crisscrossed the state on a frenzied day of campaigning.

Against the backdrop of persistent questions about his conservative credentials, Romney drew enthusiastic crowds as he rumbled across eastern Iowa in a bus making the case that he is the most electable Republican in the field.

The support lost by Gingrich, whose front-runner status made him the subject of a barrage of negative TV ads, flowed to other candidates, notably Santorum

In one bit of good news for Gingrich on Wednesday, his campaign announced that it had raised $9 million in the past quarter. That is enough money to allow him to respond to some of the negative attacks and continue his campaign into later contests.

After months of being near the bottom of the standings, San­torum has surged, becoming the latest symbol of the Republican electorate’s continuing search for a satisfactory candidate. His new statewide radio ad, “Unite,” promotes his record on abortion and dubs him the “one consistent conservative” in the race.”

GAME CHANGE: With six days to go before voting begins, ROMNEY and SANTORUM are rising,GINGRICH is falling, PAUL is in a fight for second and PERRY and BACHMANN are fighting to stay relevant.

WHAT DROVE THE DAY: A new poll from CNN that found MITT ROMNEY leading the field in Iowa, with RON PAUL second and RICK SANTORUM third. 

Romney 25%

Paul 22%

Santorum 16%

Gingrich 14%

Perry 11%

Bachmann 9%

Huntsman 1%

ALSO FROM IOWA, A PPP Poll that finds RON PAUL with a four point lead over ROMNEY

Paul 24%

Romney 20%

Gingrich 13%

Bachmann 11%

Perry 10%

Santorum 10%

Huntsman 4%

GALLUP NATIONAL TRACKING- Gingrich and Romney are tied

Gingrich 25%

Romney 25%

Paul 11%

Perry 8%

Bachmann 5%

Santorum 4%

Huntsman 1%

Meanwhile, a CNN survey from New Hampshire also released this afternoon shows MITT ROMNEYwith a rock solid 27-point lead OVER RON PAUL in the first primary state.

THE WASHINGTON MACHINE- In what must be a nominee for best campaign ad of the 2012 cycle to date, today the PAUL campaign released a new 30-second attack ad aiming at both Gingrich and Romney. 

LEADING POLITICO TONIGHT, “Mitt Looks to Lock Down Iowa”

“Buoyed by internal polling and a CNN survey released Wednesday afternoon that showed Newt Gingrich falling to fourth place in Iowa, with Ron Paul in second and Rick Santorum climbing to third, Romney told reporters in a deli here that he couldn’t think of a reason why he won’t win the state.

“I can’t imagine, except that there are other good people running, and they’ve got good campaigns,” he said. “I like the fact that my support is building and the momentum is positive, but I can’t tell you where it’s going to end up.”

Romney will spend the next three days in the state intensifying his focus in Iowa at a moment when the state, and possibly an early wrap-up of the nomination, are now tantalizingly in reach.

He’s nearly 30 points ahead in his New Hampshire stronghold, which will vote the week after Iowa.Wins in both will make it increasingly hard for his rivals to continue their campaigns.”

AS NATIONAL JOURNAL’S ETHAN KLAPPER ASKED TODAY...if Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire, how long before the GOP nomination is completely locked up? Developments so far this week seem far removed from discussion, as recently as this past weekend, of a prolonged primary season and even a contested convention.

BREAKING TONIGHT FROM THE BATTLE FOR THIRD IN IOWA…Michele Bachmann’s Iowa campaign manager, Kent Sorenson, has resigned and is now working for RON PAUL.

The latest from POLITICO’s Alexander Burns

“Sorenson made the announcement at a Paul rally with veterans here in Des Moines, telling the crowd: “I believe we’re at a turning point in this campaign.”

Calling the decision to abandon Bachmann a painful one, Sorenson said he felt obligated to join Paul as the “Republican establishment” tries to undermine his campaign.

“I thought it was my duty to come to his aid, just like he came to my aid during my Senate race, which was a very nasty race,” Sorenson said, pledging to go all-out for Paul over the next few days.

To cheers from the crowd, he continued: “We’re going to take Ron Paul all the way to the White House.”

SO WHO WON THE DAY? Alex says it’s Rick Santorum.

“At the start of the month, Rick Santorum needed the following things to happen in order for him to be competitive in Iowa: Newt Gingrich needed to fade. Evangelicals needed to move toward his campaign. Then voters needed to see some tangible sign of momentum, in order to speed up the tortoise-like pace of his Iowa campaign.

The former Pennsylvania senator has now gotten at least a dose of all three ingredients. Gingrich’s campaign has lost ground in every recent Iowa poll. Santorum won the endorsement of a number of high-profile Christian conservatives, including the head of The Family Leader. And today, Santorum placed third in an Iowa poll for the first time, running fairly close behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in a CNN/Time magazine survey.”

DEPARTMENT OF MAKING THINGS WORSE- Newt Gingrich today attempted to explain his March cruise in Greece by saying it gave him a better understanding of the financial crisis that began in Greece and now threatens the European economy

“Ironically, being in Greece during the Greek crisis was very helpful and gave me a much deeper perspective of how hard this was going to be,” he said.

TOP BELTWAY TALKER IN THE MORNING- Helene Cooper in the New York Times- White House Memo: “Bipartisan Agreement: Obama Isn’t Schmoozing”

“Mr. Obama, in general, does not go out of his way to play the glad-handing, ego-stroking presidential role. While he does sometimes offer a ride on Air Force One to a senator or member of Congress, more often than not, he keeps Congress and official Washington at arm’s length, spending his down time with a small — and shrinking — inner circle of aides and old friends.

He typically golfs with a trio of mid- to low-level staff members little known outside the West Wing. He does not spend much time at Camp David, the retreat other presidents have used to woo Washington. His social life runs toward evenings playing Taboo with old friends and their families, Wii video games with his wife and daughters or basketball with Robert Wolf, a banker and the rare new best friend Mr. Obama has acquired since entering politics. He vacations with friends from Chicago on Martha’s Vineyard in August and in Hawaii at Christmas.

This week, for example, Mr. Obama is ensconced in the protective bubble of the Secret Service. With him are his closest outside-the-Beltway-friends, including Eric Whitaker, a Chicago doctor, and two of Mr. Obama’s Hawaii friends from Punahou School: Mike Ramos, a businessman,and Robert Titcomb, a commercial fisherman whom Mr. Obama has stuck by despite his arrest in April on suspicion of soliciting a prostitute. Mr. Obama bolted from Washington last Friday barely an hour after he had signed legislation extending the payroll tax cut after a grinding fight with House Republicans whose result is widely viewed as a big win for him. His relationship with Washington insiders is described by members of both parties as “remote,” “distant” and “perfunctory.”

KEY QUOTE: “This is not a Lincoln bedroom guy,” said James Carville, the Democratic strategist, referring to the guest bedroom at the White House where President Bill Clinton put up supporters and donors. “In fact, he’s the anti-Lincoln bedroom guy. He doesn’t seem to relish, or even like, having politicians around.”

WALL STREET- from CNBC- ”Stocks End Near Lows, S&P Negative for 2011”

• DOW down 140
• NASDAQ down 35
• S&P 500 down 16

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SPECIAL POST-DEBATE EDITION
The Eighth Republican Presidential Candidates Debate just concluded from Las Vegas, Nevada. It was the third debate hosted by CNN, the first moderated by Anderson Cooper, and the second to take place in the Pacific Time Zone. It also was the most consequential debate thus far and a game-changer in the Republican primary race.

THE HEADLINE, in THREE PARTS: Cain falls, Perry and Romney attack, Santorum rises

 
PART ONE: Herman Cain, whose campaign has been on a meteoric rise for the past two weeks, started this debate with the first question from the audience about his 9-9-9 economic plan. Quickly, the plan was attacked by second and third tier candidates Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann, and then by Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich. In his folksy Texas tone, Perry even said “It’s just not going to work, brother,” to Cain. For much of the rest of the debate, Cain was silent- answering questions when they were posed to him- but not bringing up any new attacks or showing very much concern in defending his candidacy. The Cain bubble has now burst. 

PART TWO: Rick Perry had his best debate performance to date, although he continued to stumble on questions of immigration (clearly his largest vulnerability). In his first question, he declined an invitation by moderator Anderson Cooper to attack Romney. A few minutes later, in a question on the economy, Perry, himself, introduced immigration..as he tried to set up an attack on Romney, reviving an allegation first used in the campaign four years ago that Romney’s family hired illegal immigrants as landscapers on their property. There were several exchanges between Romney and Perry tonight, and in every one it was clear that Romney took the higher road. Romney was well-prepped and demonstrated that he is a skillful debater, and that was clearly communicated in his actions tonight.

PART THREE: After last week’s debate, we discussed how impressed we were with Rick Santorum, and we saw a potential opening for him in the future of the campaign. After this week’s debate, we see this as even more the case. Santorum increased his attacks- on both Romney and Perry- tonight, becoming the only other candidate to take on the two front-runners directly. He appealed to social conservatives by discussing his credentials as the family values candidate. And he made the case that he was well prepared to take on Barack Obama because he was a conservative Republican who defeated a liberal Democrat in a swing state. Santorum’s candidacy is on the rise- and with Cain’s fall there is now an opening for him- if he can embrace it. Watch to see if Santorum can effectively communicate in mediums beyond the debate stage- fundraising, organization, media, advertising- and put it all together in a state like Iowa, where he could have a good chance at winning. 

THE EVENING REPORT CANDIDATE RANKINGS: Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Herman Cain 
*Note: We placed Perry second not because he had a stellar debate by himself..but that compared with his previous debate performances he was significantly improved

WHERE WE GO FROM HERE:

The next televised debate is scheduled for WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 09, three weeks from tomorrow. It will be the longest stretch without a debate since the early summer. It will be an important time for the candidates to focus their attention on fundraising, finalizing their strategies for the early states, and beefing up their credentials in areas of weakness - many exposed during this near-weekly series of debates held since Labor Day. Watch to see where the candidates spend their time, how they respond to world events (including, importantly, the growing Occupy Wall Street movements), what their media strategy is for staying relevant and in the public’s attention, and how quickly they go up on the air with paid television advertising- the next milestone that we’ll cross in the 2012 race. 

THE OTHER TOP STORIES TODAY:

Israel finalized a prisoner-swap with Hamas for the release of Pvt. Gilad Shalit, held for the last five years by the Palestinian group.

President Obama was on the second of a three day bus tour through North Carolina and Virginia. Today he spoke at Guilford Technical Community College in Jamestone, NC and later in Greensville County, NC. He was interviewed by ABC’s Jake Tapper (airing on Nightline tonight).

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made an unannounced visit to Libya today and met with rebel leaders. This came after key advances by rebel forces in Gadaffi’s hometown of Sirte over the weekend. 

The White House announced that President Obama will sign the three free trade agreements passed by Congress last week in The Rose Garden on Friday.

ON WALL STREET:
DOW up 180

NASDAQ up 43

S&P 500 up 25