The Golden Report

SPECIAL POST-DEBATE EDITION
The Eighth Republican Presidential Candidates Debate just concluded from Las Vegas, Nevada. It was the third debate hosted by CNN, the first moderated by Anderson Cooper, and the second to take place in the Pacific Time Zone. It also was the most consequential debate thus far and a game-changer in the Republican primary race.

THE HEADLINE, in THREE PARTS: Cain falls, Perry and Romney attack, Santorum rises

 
PART ONE: Herman Cain, whose campaign has been on a meteoric rise for the past two weeks, started this debate with the first question from the audience about his 9-9-9 economic plan. Quickly, the plan was attacked by second and third tier candidates Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann, and then by Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich. In his folksy Texas tone, Perry even said “It’s just not going to work, brother,” to Cain. For much of the rest of the debate, Cain was silent- answering questions when they were posed to him- but not bringing up any new attacks or showing very much concern in defending his candidacy. The Cain bubble has now burst. 

PART TWO: Rick Perry had his best debate performance to date, although he continued to stumble on questions of immigration (clearly his largest vulnerability). In his first question, he declined an invitation by moderator Anderson Cooper to attack Romney. A few minutes later, in a question on the economy, Perry, himself, introduced immigration..as he tried to set up an attack on Romney, reviving an allegation first used in the campaign four years ago that Romney’s family hired illegal immigrants as landscapers on their property. There were several exchanges between Romney and Perry tonight, and in every one it was clear that Romney took the higher road. Romney was well-prepped and demonstrated that he is a skillful debater, and that was clearly communicated in his actions tonight.

PART THREE: After last week’s debate, we discussed how impressed we were with Rick Santorum, and we saw a potential opening for him in the future of the campaign. After this week’s debate, we see this as even more the case. Santorum increased his attacks- on both Romney and Perry- tonight, becoming the only other candidate to take on the two front-runners directly. He appealed to social conservatives by discussing his credentials as the family values candidate. And he made the case that he was well prepared to take on Barack Obama because he was a conservative Republican who defeated a liberal Democrat in a swing state. Santorum’s candidacy is on the rise- and with Cain’s fall there is now an opening for him- if he can embrace it. Watch to see if Santorum can effectively communicate in mediums beyond the debate stage- fundraising, organization, media, advertising- and put it all together in a state like Iowa, where he could have a good chance at winning. 

THE EVENING REPORT CANDIDATE RANKINGS: Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Herman Cain 
*Note: We placed Perry second not because he had a stellar debate by himself..but that compared with his previous debate performances he was significantly improved

WHERE WE GO FROM HERE:

The next televised debate is scheduled for WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 09, three weeks from tomorrow. It will be the longest stretch without a debate since the early summer. It will be an important time for the candidates to focus their attention on fundraising, finalizing their strategies for the early states, and beefing up their credentials in areas of weakness - many exposed during this near-weekly series of debates held since Labor Day. Watch to see where the candidates spend their time, how they respond to world events (including, importantly, the growing Occupy Wall Street movements), what their media strategy is for staying relevant and in the public’s attention, and how quickly they go up on the air with paid television advertising- the next milestone that we’ll cross in the 2012 race. 

THE OTHER TOP STORIES TODAY:

Israel finalized a prisoner-swap with Hamas for the release of Pvt. Gilad Shalit, held for the last five years by the Palestinian group.

President Obama was on the second of a three day bus tour through North Carolina and Virginia. Today he spoke at Guilford Technical Community College in Jamestone, NC and later in Greensville County, NC. He was interviewed by ABC’s Jake Tapper (airing on Nightline tonight).

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made an unannounced visit to Libya today and met with rebel leaders. This came after key advances by rebel forces in Gadaffi’s hometown of Sirte over the weekend. 

The White House announced that President Obama will sign the three free trade agreements passed by Congress last week in The Rose Garden on Friday.

ON WALL STREET:
DOW up 180

NASDAQ up 43

S&P 500 up 25

POST DEBATE EDITION

The Seventh Republican Presidential Candidates Debate just concluded from Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire. Eight candidates shared the stage- and for the first time this election season, sat around what moderator Charlie Rose described as a “kitchen table.” The nearly two-hour debate, sponsored by Bloomberg and The Washington Post- and airing on Bloomberg television but not on a major cable news channel- was the second to be held in New Hampshire this cycle, the state which is expected to play host to the “first in the nation” primary in early January. 

Three takeaways:

1/ Romney is the frontrunner

2/ Cain has a 9-9-9 Problem

3/ Santorum had a good night.

1/ From his poise to his answers. His jokes to his choice of a candidate to address a question of. There was absolutely no doubt that Mitt Romney not only won this debate, but is the Republican presidential frontrunner with a good chance at beating President Obama next November. Romney towered over his opponents at tonight’s debate, deflecting their criticisms with a commanding presence that seemed professorial. He even at one point held his finger in the air and wagged it at Rick Perry, scolding him saying “I’m still talking Rick, I’m still talking.” When it came time to answer a hard question poised by the moderators- if Europe’s looming debt crisis was a threat to the American economy- Romney again played a card from the upper deck, challenging the premise of the question as hypothetical. And late in the debate when it seemed that there wouldn’t be a question specifically about it, he reminded his fellow candidates- as if they needed reminding- of the big political news pre-debate: that he had secured the coveted endorsement of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Yes, Romney is the Republican frontrunner and he handily won tonight’s debate.

2/ What spared Hermain Cain’s rise from third-tier to first-tier candidate in less than a month? His repetition at the six previous debates of his economic plan: 9-9-9. The simplicity of the catchphrase- that Jon Huntsman tonight said first reminded him of a pizza deal- is also Cain’s biggest liability. Huntsman, Bachmann, Gingrich, Santorum, Paul, Perry & Romney (those would be all of the other candidates) took swipes- some specific, some veiled, at the plan tonight. Santorum was the most aggressive- turning to the audience of Granite State residents notorious for their “live free or die” mantra and asking them how many want to see a 9% sales tax. No hands went up. “There’s your evidence, Herman, it’s not going to work,” Santorum said. 

3/ Which leads into the final point of the initial takeaways: Rick Santorum had a good night. Of the third-tier candidates, he was the most animated, even commanding at times. Clearly angered that Herman Cain has become the darling of Tea Party conservatives- a group that he needs in order to place well in January’s Iowa Caucus, Santorum knows that he was to either distinguish himself from Cain or tear him down. And he has decided on the latter. Watch to see how Mitt Romney- who remembers how Santorum joined his pile on of Rick Perry in previous debates- may come to the aide of Rick Santorum in next week’s debate. 

THE LEAD- as it is evolving, in The Washington Post, as of 10:15pm, “The government is the problem. That was the message Tuesday night as the eight Republican presidential hopefuls clamored to blame Washington for the nation’s economic ills. In turn, they pointed fingers at President Obama, the Federal Reserve and the government generally as the cause of the nation’s economic collapse. Together, they were strident in their belief that Obama-era regulations are stunting growth. Yet although the White House aspirants largely agreed on their overall visions, the two candidates whose positions at the top of the field were expected to rise or fall in Tuesday’s Washington Post-Bloomberg News debate at Dartmouth College — Texas Gov. Rick Perry and businessman Herman Cain — were short on policy specifics, even when pressed by the moderators.”

AND IN POLITICO, “The Republican presidential candidates found their target for the evening: Herman Cain and his “9-9-9” tax plan. The former pizza executive has thrilled Republican primary voters with his proposal to toss out the U.S. tax code and replace it with 9 percent taxes on business, income and sales. But now that he’s swiftly rising in the polls, his rivals are clearly hoping to puncture his political balloon.”

THE BACK TIER: Aside from some awkwardly-timed jokes, Jon Huntsman showed he is a candidate who will soon be forgotten in this field. And Rick Perry had another bad night. As we predicted last evening, he did not have nearly as much time as he has in previous debates, but when he did speak, he didn’t seem passionate or knowledgeable- at one point nearly-stuttering and looking around the room as if to say “I don’t know the answer.” Perry showed that his campaign is quickly on the decline. 

THE EVENING REPORT CANDIDATES RANKINGS- who won, and who lost- tonight’s debate:

Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Jon Huntsman

IN OTHER NEWS

It was a very busy news Tuesday. Here are the other top stories of this day:

ISRAEL PRISONER SWAP IMMINENT 

The Israeli Cabinet- meeting in emergency session today- agreed to a prisoner swap that will allow Sgt. Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier who has been held by the Palestinian group Hamas since 2006 to be released.

From the New York Times, “Israel and Hamas announced an agreement on Tuesday to exchange more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners for an Israeli soldier held captive in Gaza for five years, a deal brokered by Egypt that seemed likely to shake up Middle East politics at a time when the region is immersed in turmoil.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel told his nation in a live address on television that the soldier, Staff Sgt. Gilad Shalit, who was  captured in June 2006 at the age of 19, could be home “within days,” ending what has been widely seen in Israel as a national trauma.It was unclear what drove the two to accept a deal that had been on the table for years. But both stand to benefit politically and had reasons to distract attention from the efforts of Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, as he circles the globe seeking votes for his bid to gain United Nations membership for a state of Palestine.”

IRANIAN-LINKED TERROR PLOT UNRAVELED

Attorney General Eric Holder announced today that a FBI sting operation has uncovered and unraveled a significant plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the United States, with links to both Iran and Mexico. 

From Reuters, “U.S. authorities said they had broken up a plot by two men linked to Iran’s security agencies to assassinate Saudi Ambassador Adel al-Jubeir. One was arrested last month while the other was believed to be in Iran. Iran denied the charges. But President Barack Obama called the plot a “flagrant violation of U.S. and international law” and Saudi Arabia said it was “despicable.” U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder alleged that the plot was the work of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is the guardian of Iran’s 32-year-old revolution, and the Quds force, its covert, operational arm. “High-up officials in those (Iranian) agencies, which is an integral part of the Iranian government, were responsible for this plot,” Holder told the news conference. “I think one has to be concerned about the chilling nature of what the Iranian government attempted to do here,” he said

SLOVAKIA REJECTS EUROZONE BAILOUT FUND

This afternoon the Slovakian Parliament rejected, by 21 votes, the Eurozone bailout fund proposal. Slovakia is the 17th and final country whose approval is necessary for the measure to be ratified and its defeat sends into chaos the current efforts to save the European financial system from collapse. However, a second vote is expected in the Parliament within days and is expected to pass. Today’s measure also included a vote of no confidence against the sitting Slovak coalition government. 

From the BBC, “The governing coalition had linked the vote to a confidence motion and as a result has effectively been toppled. Slovakia is the last of the eurozone’s 17 members to vote on expanding the European Financial Stability Facility. However, the BBC’s Rob Cameron says a second vote could be held soon and is likely to succeed. The measure failed to pass by 21 votes, but that result had been anticipated after a junior party in the centre-right coalition said it would abstain. The Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) party said it was opposed to Slovakia’s taxpayers being asked to cover the debts of richer countries. Many Slovaks feel their country - the second poorest in the eurozone - should not have to bail out countries like Greece.”

WALL STREET TODAY

Dow down 17

NASDAQ up 17

S&P 500 up 1

SENATE 

The Senate tonight, in a procedural vote, defeated President Obama’s jobs plan, in a complete bill form, failing to reach the 60 votes necessary to bring the bill to a vote. The President, campaigning in Orlando after touring a manufacturing plant in Pittsburgh and receiving an interim report from his Jobs and Competitiveness Council today, released a statement saying that tonight’s vote was only the beginning of his efforts to get Congress to pass the American Jobs Act.

From The Hill, “In the run-up to the vote, Obama’s political advisers portrayed it as a black-and-white partisan fight between a president trying to address the nation’s high unemployment rate and Senate Republican leaders more interested in partisan politics than the national good. “Their strategy is to suffocate the economy for the sake of what they think will be a political victory,” Jim Messina, campaign manager of Obama for America, wrote in an email to supporters. “They think that the more folks see Washington taking no action to create jobs, the better their chances in the next election. So they’re doing everything in their power to make sure nothing gets done.” [But] Centrist Democrats undercut that narrative by speaking out against Obama’s plan, even though they voted to debate it.”

SPECIAL POST-DEBATE EDITION

The Sixth Republican Presidential Candidates Debate has just concluded in Orlando, Florida- the second debate held in the Sunshine state, the third sponsored by and airing on Fox News, and the first with nine presidential candidates (former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson qualified to participate tonight).

THE HIGHLIGHTS:

• The gloves came off between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. If there was any doubt this was a two-man race, it was erased tonight. Both candidates not only came prepared to counter their opponents arguments but with a strategy to draw clear distinctions between their candidacies.
• Mitt Romney looked like the upper statesman, in control, and never wavered or flinched. Still, Rick Perry looked eager to engage and had animated responses to every question- even if they sometimes lacked substance and retorted back to talking points. 
• The “pile on” strategy continued with the other candidates on the stage- especially Rick Santorum- joining in the attacks on Rick Perry. Santorum seems to be leading the second tier pack in this tactic- an indication that he is gunning for a vice-presidential spot.

ROMNEY/PERRY went after each other on Social Security (this has been a theme of the campaign since the last debate), on immigration, on statements from each other’s published books, education policy and authenticity
THE LAST QUESTION: ‘Who would you pick as your VP?’ Here are the candidates responses:

• Gary Johnson — Ron Paul
• Rick Santorum — Newt Gingrich
• Newt Gingrich — Not Making a Decision
• Ron Paul — Not Making a Decision (“I’m almost in the top tier” he said)
• Rick Perry— “If you could take Hermain Cain and mate him up with Newt Gingrich you would have a very interesting VP”
• Mitt Romney — “any one of these men would be better than the President that we have now”
• Michele Bachmann - “a strong Constitutional Conservative”
• Hermain Cain — Mitt Romney (“only if he replaces his growth plan with 9/9/9)..otherwise, Newt Gingrich
• Jon Huntsman — Herman Cain (“because of his selection of ties..we both apparently agree with the gold standard”)

TODAY’S TOP STORY: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 391 points today- 3.5%- as a sell-off that began in Europe- and extending to Asia- engulfed the US markets. Yesterday’s decision by the Federal Reserve for enhanced monetary stimulus did nothing to stop the sell-off. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 were also both down over 3% today. Today’s global selloff comes as world financial leaders are meeting in Washington for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (and as political leaders continue their weeklong meeting in New York at the United Nations General Assembly), which only underscores the urgency in the global economy right now.

AS WE TOLD YOU LAST NIGHT: Today, the board of Hewlett-Packard announced that they have named Meg Whitman, the former CEO of eBay, as their next Chief Executive. “We are fortunate to have someone of Meg Whitman’s caliber and experience step up to lead HP,” Ray Lane, executive chairman of HP’s board of directors, said, “We are at a critical moment. . . . Meg is a technology visionary with a proven track record of execution.”

DEVELOPING- NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE on Capitol Hill tonight- and specifically in the House- where Speaker John Boehner is meeting behind closed doors with his Caucus to determine the next plan of action for a continuing resolution, to keep the government funded beyond next Friday at midnight. A first version of the CR failed on the floor yesterday, with Republicans joining a nearly unified Democratic caucus in defeating it. A vote could come on a revised bill as early as TONIGHT- sometime around midnight eastern. However, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has said that he will defeat this revised CR in the Senate- thus setting up a prolonged showdown that might force Congress to stay in session through its Jewish New Years Recess next week. Some Republicans are aanddvocating the so-called “Solyndra option”- a $100 million offset for increased disaster funding from an Energy Department program that funded the now-failed solar power company

MORE POLITICAL TIDBITS:

• Michigan Representative Thaddeus McCotter officially dropped out of his longshot bid for the 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination today- and endorsed Mitt Romney
• Suffolk University New Hampshire Poll: Romney 41%, Paul 14%, Huntsman 10%, Perry 8%, Palin 6%, Bachmann 5%, Gingrich 4%, Santorum 1%, Roemer 1%
• Former President Bill Clinton will publish a new book in November, titled “Back to Work” which will “offer a plan to get America back into the future of business”

WHAT TO WATCH TOMORROW: Continuing diplomacy at the United Nations, as Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbass may indeed bring his proposal to a vote (which will be vetoed by the United States. Watch to see if there is a last minute maneuver that can avoid any political embarrassment. 

ALSO WATCH: the House vote late tonight on a continuing resolution, and the Senate response.

UPDATES on both big stories in the EARLY EDITION of Friday’s Evening Report. 

POST-DEBATE EDITION

Tonight in Tampa, Florida: the Fifth Republican Presidential Candidates Debate. Candidates Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney & Rick Santorum shared the stage for the two-hour debate which just concluded. 

THE HIGHLIGHTS:

This was RICK PERRY’s debate- to win or lose. And he started the night on home turf- with a favorable Tea Party audience. But the debate quickly turned into a pile-on with nearly all of the other candidates- most especially Romney, Santorum, Bachmann and Huntsman- attacking Perry on his record and past statements. This debate will be remembered because MITT ROMNEY worked his way to come out on top, especially with his answers on the budget and immigration reform. 

MICHELE BACHMANN again struggled to share the stage with the two front-runners but approached this debate with a clear attack strategy: against Perry, not Romney. 

RICK SANTOROUM also got in several one-liners tonight by going after Perry- although he had a fair amount of criticism for Romney as well. Trying to position himself as a choice between Romney and Perry, Santorum showed that he still may be a strong vice-presidential contender or, at the least, a ‘must-get’ surrogate endorsement

JON HUNTSMAN struggled to break through again tonight. His most memorable line might have been an awkward attack on Perry, causing his border security policy “treasonous” 
and the AUDIENCE who last week in California applauded Rick Perry’s record on executions, applauded tonight at a hypothetical question about a 30-year old in a coma without health insurance and whether he should be allowed to die. 

TER’s ORDER OF DEBATE WINNERS: Romney, Perry, Santorum, Gingrich, Bachmann, Huntsman, Cain, Paul

BEFORE THE DEBATE- the big 2012 news of the day: former presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty today endorsed Mitt Romney; while once-rumored candidate Bobby Jindal endorsed Rick Perry. These are the first two major surrogate endorsements of the cycle.

THE REST OF THE DAYS NEWS

LAYOFFS: Bank of America today announced plans for 30,000 employee layoffs over the next several years. It was just last month when the Bank announced a $5 payment from Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett. The announcement is the largest for a US company this year, surpassing Merck’s planned 13,000 layoffs. 

JOBS: President Obama today formally unveiled the American Jobs Act, a 233-page proposal, in legislative language, built off of his primetime Address to Congress last week. The nearly $450 billion in new spending is paid for by eliminating tax loopholes- including for corporate jet owners- and limiting tax deductions, including those for charitable contributions and home mortgage payments 

ON WALL STREET: The Dow ended the day above 11,000 again, up 68.99 points to 11,061. The NASDAQ was up 27 points and the S&P 500 closed the first trading day of the new week up 8 points.

IN FRANCE: An explosion at the Marcole Nuclear Site today is being called a “an industrial accident, not a nuclear accident” by company officials. One person was killed and four were injured in the explosion, which is currently under investigation but that did not, according to government officials, leak radiation

NEED THE KNOW TOMORROW: Inside-the-beltway political junkies will be tuned into two special House elections- in New York’s 9th Congressional District and Nevada’s 2nd District. In New York, the seat once held by resigned Congressman Anthony Weiner was thought to be safely Democratic, but recently polling shows an extremely competitive race. Republicans are now expected to pick-up that seat and in the Nevada race for the seat once held by now Senator Dean Heller, who was appointed to fill the remainder of Sen. John Ensign’s term. Ensign resigned in disgrace in May.

AND FINALLY: NBC Universal announced the name of a new once-weekly primetime news magazine to be anchored by NBC Nightly News Anchor Brian Williams. “Rock Center with Brian Williams” will debut later this fall and feature talent and reporting from the news devision of NBC.

TOP STORY-TEN YEARS LATER: Today, the nation and the world paused to reflect and remember the 10th anniversary of the 2001 terrorist attacks. Network television produced live specials from 8-11am, with markers for each of the major moments of the attack; the four plane crashes and two tower collapses. At the end of that day, a decade ago, America was a changed country. Today was a day to take stock of the events of the preceding ten years- how much has happened and changed, and how much that single day continues to impact our lives, and the life of our country.

At the WORLD TRADE CENTER site, the 9/11 memorial was formally unveiled. Two reflecting pools- each about an acre in size- and the largest manmade waterfalls in North America- contain the names of each person who died in the 2001 attacks, and the 1993 bombing. A 9/11 museum is under a construction an expected to be opened 9/11/12.

At the PENTAGON, Vice President Joe Biden participated in a ceremony in which he spoke of the nearly two million members of the “9/11 Generation” who have served- in Iraq and Afghanistan- since the attacks. “The true legacy of 9/11 is that our spirit is mightier, the bonds that unite us are thicker, and the resolve is firmer than the million tons of limestone and concrete that make up that great edifice behind me,” he said.

And in SHANKESVILLE PENNSYLVANIA a service was held at the new Flight 93 National Memorial, America’s newest national park, which was formally dedicated Saturday by Former Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush and Vice President Biden. 40 passengers were killed when United Airlines Flight 93 crashed on 9/11. 

Tonight at the KENNEDY CENTER, President Obama- who visited all three attack sites today with the First Lady- offered reflections at a “Concert for Hope” organized by the Washington National Cathedral. “This land pulses with the optimism of those who set out for distant shores, and the courage of those who died for human freedom,” he said, and, quoting from scripture, “weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning.”

DRIVING THE WEEK (the three things that you need to watch for tomorrow and this week):

1/ President Obama will speak in the Rose Garden in the morning on the American Jobs Act- and will formally submit the legislation to Congress in the afternoon. The White House will try to stay on message focused on the Jobs Act all week. 

2/ Israel withdrew its diplomatic staff from Cairo on Saturday after several hours of high-tense diplomatic negotiations, including a phone call from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to President Obama. With the removal of the Israeli ambassador to Turkey and an Arab League meeting this week in which Palestinians will put forward a proposal to be granted separate state status at the United Nations later this month, Israel’s standing (and the legitimacy/control of the interim Egyptian government) is becoming a major ‘next step’ story in the Arab Spring

3/ Republican presidential candidates convene in Florida for their fifth debate of the primary season Monday night- sponsored by CNN and the Florida Tea Party. Watch to see how if Mitt Romney and Rick Perry continue the skirmish they began last week at the Reagan Library- and if either Michele Bachmann or Jon Huntsman make any moves to break into the upper tiers. Providing optimism to the Republicans, and driving the political week for Democrats, is a front-page New York Times story today “Democrats Fret Aloud Over Obama’s Chances” (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/11/us/politics/11obama.html?hpw)

BONUS: Anderson Cooper, who was the MC of tonight’s Concert For Hope at the Kennedy Center, will be back in New York tomorrow as the host of his new daytime talk show “Anderson”

FINALLY: Paul Simon performed a moving rendition of “Sound of Silence” this morning as part of the 9/11 ceremony at Ground Zero.