The Golden Report

HAPPENING NOW- Game Four of the 2011 World Series. TOP OF THE SEVENTH-
Rangers 4, Cardinals 0

FIRST LOOK: After a second failed attempt by the Senate to bring up
the President’s American Jobs Act proposal this past week, the
Administration will continue its campaign for the law in the week
ahead, starting tomorrow, with a slightly different theme, “We Can’t
Wait,” and a series of proposed executive branch actions to spur
economic activity (growth) and job creation, without direct
legislative action. A New York Times story today sets the scene (and
is being pushed by Administration officials Dan Pfieffer and Jay
Carney tonight via Twitter)

“According to an administration official, Mr. Obama will kick off his
new offensive in Las Vegas, ground zero of the housing bust, by
promoting new rules for federally guaranteed mortgages so that more
homeowners, those with little or no equity in their homes, can
refinance and avert foreclosure.

And Wednesday in Denver, the official said, Mr. Obama will announce
policy changes to ease college graduates’ repayment of federal loans,
seeking to alleviate the financial concerns of students considering
college at a time when states are raising tuition.”

The “We can’t wait” campaign is a new phase in Mr. Obama’s so-far
unsuccessful effort — punctuated until now by his cries of “Pass this
bill!” on the stump — to pressure Republicans to support the job
creation package he proposed after Labor Day. It comes after unanimous
votes by Senate Republicans in the past week to block the plan; House
Republican leaders have refused to put the measure to a vote.”

THE PRESIDENTS WEEK AHEAD: Tomorrow- Las Vegas, and then to Los
Angeles. Tuesday- records Jay Leno and then on to San Francisco.
Wednesday- Denver and back to Washington. The West Coast trip will be
a mix of campaign fundraisers and White House events for the American
Jobs Act.

WHAT THE ADMINISTRATION IS THINKING- back to the Calmes Article- which is highly sourced-

“Polls show overwhelming support for pieces of the $447 billion
package, which includes expanded tax cuts for workers and employers,
and spending for infrastructure projects and for state aid to keep
teachers and emergency responders at work. But Republicans oppose
provisions in Mr. Obama’s plan that would offset the costs with higher
taxes on the wealthy.

Should the bill ultimately fail, Democrats believe they at least have
the better political argument, and they vow to exploit what they call
the Republicans’ obstruction in the 2012 campaign.”

THIS WEEKEND ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

Nevada Republicans agreed to change the date of their early state
caucuses next year, from a proposed January 14th date, to Saturday
February 4th- after votes in Florida and South Carolina- and allowing
New Hampshire to follow Iowa in early January with the traditional,
and historical, first in the nation presidential primary

New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, who demanded that
Nevada change the date of their caucus- and threatened to hold his
state’s primary as early as December 6th if necessary- is likely to
announce the official date of the 2012 New Hampshire Primary this
week- between Iowa and South Carolina on Tuesday January 10th.

Therefore, the early state calendar will go like this: IOWA-Tuesday
01/03, NEW HAMPSHIRE- Tuesday 01/10, SOUTH CAROLINA- Saturday 01/21, FLORIDA- Tuesday 01/31, NEVADA & MAINE- Saturday 02/04, COLORADO & MINNESOTA- Tuesday 02/07, ARIZONA & MICHIGAN- Tuesday 02/28, WASHINGTON- Saturday 03/03 and SUPER TUESDAY on Tuesday 03/06.

Remember- all of the states before April will award their delegates
proportionally. That means that it will likely not be until Super
Tuesday in March when a presumptive nominee will be officially
declared. With the calendar just about settled, it’s looking like a
two month primary season before that point.

THE FRONTRUNNERS:

MITT ROMNEY- will officially file paperwork for the New Hampshire
primary ballot tomorrow, when he will also announce the endorsement of
Former NH Sen. John Sununu

RICK PERRY- will unveil the second piece of his “jobs and fiscal
reform” plan on Tuesday in South Carolina, when he will announce his
support for a rewrite of the tax code and the institution of a “flat
tax”

NO DEBATE this week..or next week..the next scheduled debate (the
ninth) will be on Wednesday November 09 in Rochester, Michigan. There
is one other debate (the following Tuesday, 11/15) scheduled in
November.

DECEMBER DEBATE SCHEDULE: 12/01- Phoenix; 12/10- Des Moines; 12/15- Sioux City

JANUARY DEBATE SCHEDULE: 01/16- Myrtle Beach; 01/19- Charleston;
01/26- Jacksonville; 01/30- Tampa

THREE THINGS TO WATCH IN THE WEEK AHEAD

1/ Europe. Reports from over the weekend show signs of progress
between German and French officials who are meeting to develop a
resolution to the Eurozone debt crisis. Wall Street (and tonight in
Monday trading in Asia) are watching the European developments very
carefully. This has been a top story for several weeks and months, but
things appear to be coming to a head this week.

2/ Occupy Wall Street. 100 protestors were arrested in Chicago over
the weekend as the “Occupy” protest continue in cities across the
country- and even in cities around the world. Watch to see if there is
any organizational growth this week. A Sunday Washington Post story
compared (and found similarities) between Tea Party members and Occupy
protestors- watch to see if other news organizations jump on to that
narrative.

3/ On the campaign trail- without a debate, watch to see how the
candidates are defining themselves as they meet with voters in early
states and get into the weeds with them on policy issues. With Romney,
watch to see how he is connecting with the “average joe” in New
Hampshire- a must-win state for him. And with Perry, watch to see what
kind of specific details are announced in his Tuesday jobs speech- and
if and how the Romney campaign chooses to respond to it.

Happy Columbus Day!

NEW GALLUP POLL out today (with changes from last month’s Gallup survey): 

Mitt Romney 20% (-4%)

Herman Cain 18% (+13%)

Rick Perry 15% (-16%)

Ron Paul 8% (-5%)

Newt Gingrich 7% (+2%)

Michele Bachmann 5% (-)

Rick Santorum 3% (+1%)

Huntsman 2% (+1%)

Undecided 20% (+10%)

MORE POLLS later in the Report. 

Tomorrow in Hanover, New Hampshire, the Republican presidential candidates share the same stage once again for the seventh debate of the election season, and the first since September 22nd. It will be the second debate in the state of New Hampshire- which is expected to play host to the “first in the nation” primary next January. The last New Hampshire debate, on June 13th, was when Rep. Michele Bachmann announced her candidacy. 

Ahead of the debate, many of the top candidates were campaigning in New Hampshire today. The Nashua Telegraph tops its political coverage tonight by making note of Bachmann’s seeming absence from the state since announcing her candidacy, with the headline, “Bachmann back in NH after four-month absence” <http://bit.ly/pCK2cz>

Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who did not participate in June’s New Hampshire debate, gave what his campaign described as a “major foreign policy speech” today, which his campaign tried to present as a contrast to frontrunner Mitt Romney’s Friday foreign policy speech in South Carolina. From his prepared remarks, Huntsman said- in trying to build that contrast-, “A reexamination of America’s role in the world also requires a reexamination of our military and defense infrastructure…We still have remnants of a top-heavy, post-Cold War infrastructure. It needs to be transformed to reflect the 21st Century world, and the growing asymmetric threats we face.” The news of Huntsman’s speech, however, may be the more hawkish tone he took towards Iran, saying, “I cannot live with a nuclear-armed Iran. If you want an example of when I would use American force, it would be that.”

Despite Romney & Huntsman attempting to interject foreign policy into the race- it is unlikely that it will bump the economy from the key issue determining the election.

And it is in that light that Romney today tried to position himself as aligned with the surging campaign of businessman Herman Cain, telling a town hall meeting in New Hampshire tonight, “We each have our own experiences, he’s [Cain’s] a great guy. Vote for either one of us and you’ll be happy.”

HARVARD UNIVERSITY/ST ANSLEM COLLGE POLL out today:

Romney 38%

Cain 20%

Paul 13%

Gingrich 5%

Perry 4%

Huntsman 4%

Bachmann 3%

Santorum 1%

Johnson 1%

Former New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg- who THE EVENING REPORT saw walking on Eye Street last week- today announced his endorsement of Mitt Romney

In a further sign that her campaign is losing traction- and money- the Bachmann campaign over the weekend announced they were closing their Virginia headquarters and moving all of their resources to Iowa. They now consider the January 3rd caucuses as make-or-break [probably a strong finish in the top 3]

Rick Perry has a new 60-second web ad up today, “Romney’s Remedy” which is a must-watch if only for the theatrical contrast the ad draws between Romney and President Obama. Watch the scene when Barack Obama is looking into the mirror and the face of Mitt Romney appears and then Obama saying, “I agree with Mitt Romney…he’s right.” It finishes with Romney’s quote from the 9/22 debate “there are a lot of reasons not to elect me” and, once again, Obama saying “he’s right.” The ad: <http://youtu.be/LfcOGWRfXdk>

THREE THINGS TO WATCH in tomorrow night’s debate (7pm, sponsored by The Washington Post and Bloomberg and presented by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation)

1/ September’s debates were about Romney v Perry. With Perry’s enthusiasm fading for the moment (his fundraising numbers for the 3rd Quarter indicate he has a strong finance apparatus and evolving organization that Cain, for example, does not have), watch to see if Romney identifies another candidate on stage as a threat, or returns to the position he held for most of the early summer, of sitting back while the second and third-tier candidates fight it out.

2/ As important as watching Romney’s strategy- watch Perry’s as well. The Texas Governor will likely not have as much time as he was allowed in previous debates to answer questions as the attention will be on Romney, Cain and other candidates. Perry has also developed a reputation as a poor debater. He comes into the debate with his performance bar set extremely low. A strong showing- solid answers on questions he previously waffled on- could go a long way to regaining the enthusiasm and attention that accompanied his introduction to the campaign. Put another way- it’s not going to take a lot to turn Perry around

3/ The third-tier. In previous debates, Rick Santorum aligned himself with Mitt Romeny in the pile-on of Rick Perry. And to some extent, so did Michele Bachmann. With Perry no longer a second-place candidate, watch to see where these candidates turn. Specifically, Santorum has the most to gain- as a candidate who is in a large need of a second-look in order to revive his campaign. He is hoping that the Tea Party’s enthusiasm wave that began back in April with Donald Trump- then elevated Michele Bachmann’s candidacy to win the Iowa Caucuses in August, then brought Rick Perry to near front-runner status in September and has now elevated the candidacy of Herman Cain, will next turn to him as he targets a strong showing in January’s Iowa Caucus. 

ANOTHER POLL…from Washington Post/Bloomberg and released today:

Romney 24%

Cain 16%

Perry 13%

Paul 6%

Bachmann 4%

Gingrich 3% 

Santorum 1%

Huntsman 0%

IN OTHER NEWS:

Malta today became the 16th European nation to approve a EuroZone bailout fund first negotiated in July. Just one country- Slovakia- remains in order for the fund to be ratified. Negotiations in the Slovak parliament are continuing on Tuesday. In the end, an agreement is expected to be reached. The reality is, however, that the fund as is now close to being approved does not come close to the amount now known to be needed, but, as the BBC reports, “French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel pledged on Sunday to do what it takes to protect European banks from the debt crisis. The leaders said they were close to a detailed package to ease the crisis and would give further details within weeks.” Meanwhile, a key European Union meeting that was anticipated to occur this week was postponed until at least next week as Merkel and Sarkozy continue negotiations. 

That news was enough to send WALL STREET significantly higher on a light day of holiday trading:

DOW up 330

Nasdaq up 87

S&P 500 up 39

Two American economists, Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims were awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics “for their empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy” the Nobel Committee announced today. Sargent is a professor at New York University and Sims a professor at Princeton.

TECH NEWS:

NETFLIX reversed course and announced today that they were completely abandoning plans announced last month to split their company into two, separating online video streaming from DVD-by-mail. From Netflix CEO Reed Hastings in a blog post this morning, “It is clear that for many of our members two websites would make things more difficult, so we are going to keep Netflix as one place to go for streaming and DVDs. This means no change: one website, one account, one password… in other words, no Qwikster. While the July price change was necessary, we are now done with price changes.” 

FACEBOOK announced today its long-awaited iPad App. From Facebook Software Engineer Leon Dubinsky in a blog post this afternoon, “With the iPad app, you get the full Facebook experience, right at your fingertips. It’s a fun way to keep up with friends, share photos, chat and more.” Features include finger scroll, larger photo display, easier navigation and more features. 

APPLE says pre-orders for the iPhone 4S have broken the company’s previous single-day sales record. Over 1 million orders were placed in the first 24 hours, the company says. Both Sprint and AT&T say that they have sold out of the iPhone 4S for now and Verizon says that it will ship phones beginning on October 20th, according to the reports. 

THREE THINGS TO WATCH THIS WEEK:

1/ In Congress, watch to see how quickly the House and Senate can ratify the three trade agreements formally submitted by the White House last week. These agreements, for Panama, Colombia and South Korea, were first negotiated in 2007 but finalized earlier this month. They now face near-certain passage this week and, in the case of South Korea, it will be a welcome gift for President Lee Myung-bak who comes to Washington at the end of this week for a formal State Visit. Lee will address a joint session of Congress on Thursday and travel with President Obama on Friday to Detroit, Michigan. A State Dinner will be held Thursday night.

2/ In the Middle East, watch developments in Syria, Egypt and Libya- three countries at the heart of the Arab Spring (or as NBC’s Chief International Correspondent Richard Engel described last week, the “Arab Awakening”) which saw new violence and instability over the weekend. At least 31 people were killed in violence in Syria on Sunday, prompting the White House to release a statement condemning the killings. Today, President Obama conferred with European leaders on the situation. In Egypt, sectarian violence- reportedly the worse since the overthrow of the Mubarak government- are threatening upcoming initial elections. And in Libya, rebel forces continue their advance and assault of one of the last Gadaffi-government strongholds, Surt.

3/ Back to politics. Watch as campaigns at all levels release their third quarter finance and disclosure reports this week. Of course, watch tomorrow night’s debate for the positioning of the Republican presidential race. The candidates will meet again next Tuesday night, 10/18, for their eighth debate, across the country in Las Vegas.

Tomorrow in THE EVENING REPORT, we’ll provide a full recap of the New Hampshire debate

Welcome to Week Four of The Evening Report.
2012: The two major papers have two major stories on the two major GOP presidential candidates. They will drive the beginning of this week in presidential politics:

Washington Post on Perry, “At Rick Perry’s Texas hunting spot, camp’s old racially charged name lingered“ 

“In the early years of his political career, Rick Perry began hosting fellow lawmakers, friends and supporters at his family’s secluded West Texas hunting camp, a place known by the name painted in block letters across a large, flat rock standing upright at its gated entrance.

“Niggerhead,” it read.

“But the name of this particular parcel did not change for years after it became associated with Rick Perry, first as a private citizen, then as a state official and finally as Texas governor. Some locals still call it that.”

“In his responses to two rounds of detailed, written questions, Perry said his father first leased the property in 1983. Rick Perry said he added his own name to the lease from 1997 to 1998, when he was state agriculture commissioner, and again from 2004 to 2007, when he was governor.”

New York Times on Romney (from “the Long Run” series) “Seeking Taxes, Romney Went After Business“ 

“[After taking office as Massachusetts Governor], the Romney administration relentlessly scoured the tax code for more loopholes, extracting hundreds of millions of corporate dollars to help close budget gaps in a state with a struggling economy. It was only after Mr. Romney was gearing up in 2005 for a possible White House bid that he backed away from some of his most assertive tax enforcement proposals amid intensifying complaints from local companies and conservative antitax groups in Washington.

Mr. Romney’s campaign against the tax loopholes, like no other period in his career, put him at odds with the values and expectations of the corporate world from which he came. Today, in seeking the Republican presidential nomination, Mr. Romney promotes himself as the pro-business candidate who understands what companies need and how to create jobs.”

Watch to see which one of these stories has more staying power for the top-tier candidates. For Perry, the racism allegations will immediately put his campaign on defense- a position it has been in since a weak performance in the last debate. For Romney, his campaign will once again have to answer questions about his conservative bona fides- although this story hits at his economic conservatism, where most Tea Party criticism to this point has hit the former governor on social issues. In both cases, these stories may only play into the wild narrative of dissatisfaction within the Republican Party with the current slate of candidates. 
SUNDAY NEWS ROUNDUP

• Defense Secretary Leon Panetta departed today on an international trip to Israel, Egypt and Belgium which will be closely watched after Israel’s announcement today that they are willing to reopen negotiations with the Palestinian Authority. 

• The Supreme Court begins its 2011-2012 term tomorrow. The Court has 49 appeals on its docket for the year- but many more may be added. The annual Red Mass was held today at the Cathedral of St. Matthew the Apostle on Rhode Island Avenue. Attending: Chief Justice John Roberts, Justice Antonin Scalia, Justice Anthony Kennedy, Justice Clarence Thomas, Justice Stephen Breyer & Justice Samuel Alito. All but Breyer are Roman Catholic. [The current court makeup is 6 Catholic, 3 Jewish]

• More than 700 people were arrested Saturday night as part of the “Occupy Wall Street” protests after they impeded traffic on the Brooklyn Bridge. From NYPD, “They were on the bridge blocking vehicular traffic. They were issued multiple warnings by the police to stay on the pedestrian walkway and were told they would be arrested if they went into the vehicular lanes. Some complied but others proceeded on the Brooklyn bound vehicular walkway.”

THREE THINGS TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEK:

1/ 2012: What does Chris Christie do? Some political reporting over the weekend have Wednesday- October 5th- as a self-imposed deadline for Christie to enter the Republican presidential race. Until he delivers a definitive statement one way or another, the rampant speculation will continue as to Christie’s future. If he were to enter, it is possible he could participate in next Tuesday’s candidates debate in New Hampshire

2/ Congress is Back: The House and Senate both return after a week-long recess tomorrow. The House will move to pass a nearly-six week continuing resolution funding the government past Tuesday’s deadline. Watch to see the number of House Republicans who potentially defect on this spending vote. The Senate, meanwhile, will debate and pass a bill to more closely regulate Chinese currency. Watch to see if the White House puts out a Statement of Administration Policy on this legislation. They have previously indicated their preference would be to not touch this issue- which complicates US/Chinese relations. Also this week, watch to see if the Administration finally sends pending trade agreements to Congress

3/ The Economy: In Monday morning trading in Asia, markets are lower on continued anxiety of the European debt crisis. After a strong selloff to end the week, watch to see how investors on Wall Street react to this news tomorrow and throughout the week. The New York Times is up with a News Analysis in tomorrow’s paper which resets the situation and its importance to the European- and global economies.

 ”But the austerity-driven recession in Greece has made its budget deficit even worse than experts predicted, and the country has not kept all its promises to the “troika” — the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank — that is keeping Athens afloat. Experts from the troika left Greece a month ago in unofficial disgust; they returned last week only after getting fresh promises of action.

“Athens is again at the brink. Without the next tranche of aid from the troika — 8 billion euros — Greece could immediately default. So the troika is playing hardball, trying to force Athens to make crucial structural changes that lenders think will never happen otherwise.”

Also at the end of the week, the Labor Department will release September employment numbers at 8:30am Friday morning.
TOP THREE MOVIES AT THE BOX OFFICE THIS WEEKEND:

1/ “Dolphin Tale” $14.2 million
2/ “Moneyball” $12.5 million
3/ “The Lion King” $11.1 million