The Golden Report

5 DAYS UNTIL THE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY (25 delegates)
8 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
15 DAYS UNTIL THE FLORIDA PRIMARY (50 delegates)

POST-DEBATE EDITION

TONIGHT…from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina…the 16th Republican Presidential Candidates Debate.

And it was fight night in Myrtle Beach.

Four of the five remaining candidates recognized that they have four hours over two of the next four nights to knock off the front-runner before he makes it 3 for 3 in the early primary states.

From POLITICO’s Alexander Burns, “South Carolina GOP debate: Mitt Romney pressed on Bain, tax returns”

“While Romney stayed focused on a tightly controlled and almost entirely familiar message, there were a few rare moments when the former Massachusetts governor appeared to stammer and grasp for balance.

And after weeks of declining to promise to release his tax returns, Romney relented — mostly — under persistent questioning from moderators.

“In history, people have released them around April of the coming year and that’s probably what I’ll do,” Romney conceded.

Among Romney’s opponents, Newt Gingrich was first to start the pile-on, accusing Romney and his former private equity firm, Bain Capital, of having acquired companies, “leaving them with enormous debt and then within a year or two or three, having them go broke.”

THE DEBATE WAS FIERCE

Romney responding to Gingrich’s attacks on his Super PACs “If we’re talking about super PAC ads that are inaccurate, Mr. Speaker, you have a super PAC ad that attacks me. It’s probably the biggest hoax since Bigfoot. The people who’ve looked at it said it was entirely false…somehow for you …to suggest I have different standards here is not quite right.”

Romney answering a question about the last time he went hunting “I’m not going to describe all of my great exploits,” Romney began, “but I went moose-hunting —- went elk-hunting with friends in Montana.”

Newt Gingrich responding to Ron Paul’s comparison of Al-Qaeda terrorists (including Osama bin Laden) to Chinese dissidents: “He’s not a Chinese dissident. The analogy that Congressman Paul used was utterly irrational. A Chinese dissident who comes here seeking freedom is not the same as a terrorist who comes to Pakistan seeking asylum.”

Ron Paul invoking MLK: “Martin Luther King would be in agreement with me on the wars as well, I’m the only Republican who favors total withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan He was a strong opponent of the Vietnam War.”

Ron Paul on building the US Embassy in Iraq “You consider that defense spending - I consider that waste.”

SANTORUM’S BIG MOMENT IN THE DEBATE- from POLITICO’s Maggie Haberman

“Rick Santorum seized control of the Fox News/Wall Street Journal debate about 20 minutes in Monday night, interrogating Mitt Romney with a series of questions about his position on voting rights for felons – and attack ads a pro-Romney super PAC is airing against Santorum.

Santorum noted that Restore Our Future, the pro-Romney group, ran ads implying the Pennsylvanian wanted to let felons vote from prison.

In fact, Santorum said, he wanted to give voting rights to people who had already paid their debt to society.

“I would ask Gov. Romney,” Santorum said, “do you believe people who are felons who have served their time, who have exhausted their parole and probation, should they be given the right to vote?”

When Romney began with a few words about the rules governing super PACs and non-coordination, Santorum cut in to demand an answer to his question.

“That’s how you got the time. It’s actually my time,” Santorum said, adding of the voting rights issue: “This is Martin Luther King Day, this is a huge deal in the African-American community.”

Romney responded in a level tone: “I don’t think people who committed violent crimes should be allowed to vote again.”

And that’s when it became clear that Santorum had set a trap.

“In the state of Massachusetts, when you were governor, the law was not only can violent felons vote,” Santorum said, but they can vote when on parole or probation – a “more liberal position” than Santorum ever supported.

“If in fact you felt so passionately about this,” Santorum asked, “then why didn’t you try to change that when you were governor of Massachusetts?”

Romney shot back that he had to contend with an 85 percent Democratic legislature and that, by the way, he didn’t order a super PAC hit on Santorum because that would be illegal.”

FIRST THOUGHTS:

This was not a good debate for Romney who was off his game tonight. He should be considering these debates as practice for the general election cycle and he missed an opportunity to respond with crisp convincing answers to a whole host of questions tonight

Newt Gingrich did very well tonight in his role as attack dog and conservative cheerleader. The question now is if its enough to carry him to a close 2nd place or an upset victory in Saturday’s primary. And with polls released this weekend showing Romney running away with the lead in the state, that is not looking likely.

Ron Paul had his worst debate and seemed to be stumbling over his answers when he finally had an opportunity to answer the moderator’s questions.

The audience for tonight’s debate was wild. The Myrtle Beach Convention Center hall was packed and they were animated..frequently booing candidates up and down the stage..and moderators too.

It’s too early to say if tonight’s debate changed the dynamics of the South Carolina race. It may be too little too late for the anybody but Romney candidates. Or the Republican primary, which seemed late last week to be all but over, could be taking one more, final, crazy turn.

The next debate is Thursday night at the Citadel.

9 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
12 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
19 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

MINDMELD: Today was one of those days in the election when there wasn’t one action that happened, or moment that occurred, but rather there was an amalgamation of forces that revealed a shifting dynamic in the race.

We hinted at it at the end of last night’s Report. There began, yesterday, to be pushback from many establishment Republicans about the primary attacks against Mitt Romney and his record at Bain Capital.

Those attacks, from Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman, had threatened to consume the Republican primary for the next 9 days in South Carolina, and Florida at the end of the month and possibly even prolonging a contested primary season through the spring.

Today, that pushback continued and even as new polls showed a competitive race in South Carolina, there were clear signs that the Republican Party may be moving to clear the deck and ready to appoint their nominee to face President Obama from now until the fall. 

GOP DIVIDED OVER POTENTIAL IMPACT OF BAIN ATTACKS- The Washington Post- Amy Gardner in Greer, SC- 

“Republican voters at campaign events for Romney and other candidates Thursday said they were unmoved by the arguments against Romney’s time at Bain, a venture capital company that several of Romney’s rivals have blamed for bankrupting companies and laying off thousands of workers. Most damning has been an ad campaign paid for by a group backing Newt Gingrich, featuring interviews with workers claiming to have been laid off by Bain.

On Wednesday, Perry called Romney a “vulture capitalist” — a phrase that he did not repeat on Thursday.

Romney’s rivals seemed to vacillate between continuing to criticize Romney over Bain and easing up in the face of growing pressure to do so. Gingrich, whose critiques have been the harshest of any, rarely mentioned Romney by name Thursday, sticking instead to a more general “big guy vs. little guy” theme.

Huntsman aimed his attack Thursday on a line Romney uttered Monday about firing people, rather than directly hitting him over Bain. “When you have a candidate who talks about enjoyment of firing people, that makes you pretty much unelectable,” he said.

Several Republican strategists said the verdict is still not in on how damaging the Bain narrative will be for Romney, whose wins in New Hampshire and Iowa earlier this month have cemented his position as the front-runner of the Republican field.”

NEWT WEB AD COMPARES MITT TO DUKASIS & KERRY- includes clips of both Sen. Kerry and Gov. Romney speaking French. As you watch this ad, remind yourself that it is a Republican that produced it 

GINGRICH will be interviewed by NBC’s David Gregory this Sunday on Meet The Press

GINGRICH’S SUPER PAC, WINNING OUR FUTURE, IS UP WITH WWW.KINGOFBAIN.COM.Here’s some of the text. And it’s hard hitting.

“Mitt Romney.   

Was he a job creator or a corporate raider?

That’s the question this film answers.

And it’s not pretty.

Mitt Romney was not a capitalist during his reign at Bain. He was a predatory corporate raider.

His firm didn’t seek to create value. Instead, like a scavenger, Romney looked for businesses he could pick apart.

Indeed, he represented the worst possible kind of predator, operating within the law but well outside the bounds of what most real capitalists consider ethical.

He is exhibit number one the left wants to use in the coming election to give capitalism a bad name.

He and his friends at Bain were bad guys. Any real capitalists should disavow Romney’s ‘creative destruction’ model that made him wealthy at the expense of thousands of American jobs.”

TOP TALKER- John McCain rips into Mike Huckabee, reliving the end of the 2008 Republican Primary 

“I respect him, but that’s totally false. It’s totally, patently false. And for him to say something like that, maybe it makes him feel better. … All I can say to Gov. Huckabee is good luck on your programming on Fox, but you’re not telling the truth.”

TOP TALKER II- Laura Bush today to the Sarasota Herald-Tribune:

“Former first lady Laura Bush wishes there were one more candidate in the Republican presidential primary: Jeb Bush.

Speaking to a sold-out Sarasota audience on Wednesday, Bush said she had hoped that her brother-in-law and former Florida governor would have jumped into the race this year.

Husband George W. Bush “and I wish he would,” Laura Bush said when asked if Jeb Bush will run for president someday. “We wanted him to this time.”

TOP TALKER III- Rudy Giuliani on Fox & Friends this morning- calling out Gingrich and Perry for their attacks on Romney “What the hell are you doing, Newt?” he asked

THE LATEST SOUTH CAROLINA POLLING FROM INSIDER ADVANTAGE: ROMNEY +2

• Romney 23%
• Gingrich 21%
• Santorum 14%
• Paul 13%
• Huntsman 7%
• Perry 5%

LATEST GALLUP TRACKING POLL FOR GOP NOMINATION NATIONALLY: ROMNEY +19

• Romney 34%
• Santorum 15%
• Gingrich 14%
• Paul 13%
• Perry 5%
• Huntsman 2%

WALL STREET FROM CNBC- Stocks End Higher, Nasdaq Logs 6-Day Gain

• DOW up 22
• NASDAQ up 14
• S&P 500 up 3

FINALLY…TAKE THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT, BUT STEPHEN COLBERT WANTS TO RUN IN SOUTH CAROLINA

From POLITICO’s Mike Allen [a guest on this evening’s Colbert Report]

“I am proud to announce that I am forming an exploratory committee to lay the groundwork for my possible candidacy for president of the United States of America of South Carolina,” Colbert said during the Thursday evening show, several hours before airtime on Comedy Central.

“This is a difficult decision. I’ve talked it over with my money. I’ve talked it over with my spiritual adviser.”

Trevor Potter, the former Federal Election Commission chairman, acts as Colbert’s lawyer and was a guest on the show. “

You cannot be a candidate and run a super PAC,” Potter said. “That would be coordinating with yourself.”
Colbert’s super PAC is Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow. His 501(c)4 is the Colbert Super PAC SHH [as in “shh”] Institute.

The stunt was part of Colbert’s continuing effort to expose what he considers absurdities in U.S. election law.

11 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
14 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
21 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

PRIMARY EDITION

THE LATEST RESULTS:
77.7% OF THE VOTE IN

ROMNEY 38.3%
PAUL 23.2%
HUNTSMAN 16.9%
GINGRICH 9.7%
SANTORUM 9.6%

ROMNEY’S VICTORY-

The Union-Leader’s Headline: “NH Speaks: It’s Romney”
Boston Globe- “Romney a solid first, Paul second in N.H…Fmr Mass. Governor Gets Decisive GOP Win”

THE GLOBE-

“In his victory speech to the cheering crowd, Romney turned his fire mainly on Democratic President Barack Obama, saying, “This president has run out of ideas; now he’s running out of excuses.”

He said Obama wants to “put free enterprise on trial. … I stand ready to lead us down a different path, where we’re lifted up by our desire to succeed, not dragged down by resentment of success.”

“He apologizes for America, and I will never apologize for the greatest nation in the history of the earth,” Romney said.

FIRST THOUGHTS ON THE ROMNEY WIN:

With some vote still left to come in, Romney is running ahead of John McCain’s winning percentage from 2008, but still below expectations in the last week that he would top 40% of the popular vote. It look as if Romney will finish at 37, 38 or 39 percent.

Ron Paul finishes with a strong second place standing. It’s difficult to see where his campaign goes next- although they will compete strongly in the caucuses through the winter and spring. Does tonight’s second-place finish by Paul make him more likely to mount a third party candidacy in November?

Jon Huntsman’s third place finish is a disappointing result for the former Utah Governor, but the candidate does say that he will be going on to South Carolina. The bigger question is how Huntsman’s campaign regroups and develops a strategy.

Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are nearly tied for fourth place, but this is not particularly surprising. Santorum did not spend a lot of money in New Hampshire over the last week and Gingrich’s standing with New Hampshire voters was well known. Both are expected to vie with Rick Perry in South Carolina on the 21st.

No candidate is expected to drop out of the race over the next week before the South Carolina debates beginning next Monday and the primary a week from Saturday.

ALL FIVE CANDIDATES DELIVERED STATEMENTS TO SUPPORTERS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT

RICK PERRY, IN SOUTH CAROLINA, RELEASED THIS STATEMENT

“Tonight’s results in New Hampshire show the race for ‘conservative alternative’ to Mitt Romney remains wide open. I skipped New Hampshire and aimed my campaign right at conservative South Carolina, where we’ve been campaigning hard and receiving an enthusiastic welcome. I believe being the only nonestablishment outsider in the race, the proven fiscal and social conservative and proven job creator will win the day in South Carolina.

“South Carolina is the next stop. I have a head start here, and it’s friendly territory for a Texas governor and veteran with solid outsider credentials; the nation’s best record of job creation; and solid fiscal, social and tea party conservatism.”

ROMNEY’S VICTORY WAS DECISIVE- from POLITICO’s EMILY SCHULTHEIS- who took a look at tonight’s exit polls

“He was the first pick of a full 30 percent of voters who described themselves as “very conservative,” followed by Rick Santorum at 29 percent. He had a strong lead among those who described themselves as “somewhat conservative,” with 45 percent choosing him; he also led among self-described “moderates” and “liberals” with 35 percent.

Still, exit polls found that a full third of New Hampshire voters said they wanted another candidate in the race — only 65 percent said they were “satisfied” with the current GOP field, while 32 percent said they would like to see another candidate join the race.

Also worth noting was the high number of independents voting in tonight’s primary — a group that will be fiercely contested by both parties next fall. A full 45 percent of those coming to the polls said they were registered independents, and 47 percent of total voters tonight described themselves as independents. Both Romney and Ron Paul did well among independents — with registered independents, Romney led at 32 percent, followed by Paul at 30 percent and Jon Huntsman at 23 percent.

The former Massachusetts governor even led among New Hampshire evangelical voters, with 27 percent of that group picking Romney. Santorum took second place with the evangelical vote at 26 percent, followed by Paul at 10 percent.

One group Romney did not win, however, is the youth vote — a group that went strongly for Paul, as it did in Iowa. Paul got the support of 46 percent of voters aged 18 to 29, with Romney coming in a distant second at 21 percent. Romney, however, had a strong advantage with older voters: He won 45- to 64-year-olds with 39 percent and the 65 and older vote with 39 percent.

THE DEMOCRATS:

Vice President Joe Biden spoke via video-conference to about 2,000 Democratic supporters in New Hampshire tonight.

President Obama is traveling to Chicago tomorrow, to attend a re-election fundraiser and, likely, stop by his re-election headquarters

THE HEADLINES TONIGHT

Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire. Officially, he is now 2 for 2 in the contests so far this primary season.

No candidates are dropping out after tonight’s results.

It’s on to South Carolina, where Gingrich, Santorum and Perry are going to attack Romney over Bain Capital. 

1 DAY UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
12 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
15 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
22 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

“I LIKE BEING ABLE TO FIRE PEOPLE who provide services to me,” MITT ROMNEY, speaking today in Nashua, NH.

First- some context- and in the Romney’s campaign defense, the candidate was answering a question about services such as health care, and referencing insurance companies.

However- this quote came just one day after Romney said the following last evening in Rochester, NH:

“I’ve learned what it’s like to sign the front of a paycheck, not just the back of a paycheck, and to know how frightening it is to see if you can make the payroll at the end of the week. These are experiences that many of you know.”

“I know what it’s like to worry whether you’re going to get fired. There were a couple of times I wondered whether I was going to get a pink slip.”

Both quotes were immediately seized upon by Romney’s rivals in tomorrow’s primary. They also came on a day when the Wall Street Journal ran an A1 investigation into Romney’s record at Bain Capital, echoing an attack that Newt Gingrich brought up in this weekend’s debates, and which Gingrich’s Super PAC has bought an extraordinary amount of air time in South Carolina to make an issue in that state’s primary.

Tonight, Romney, the man who is expected to handedly win tomorrow’s primary, is under attack. They’re the same attacks that will be used by President Obama and the re-election campaign during the general election. Further, Romney’s misstatements today bare a striking resemblance to a fatal mistake made my Massachusetts Senator John Kerry during the 2004 election, with his comment that the “actually voted for it before he voted against it”- a line that came to symbolize his indecisiveness.

CAMPAIGN RESET- ROMNEY COMES UNDER FIRE AS PRIMARY LOOMS- THE WASHINGTON POST-PHILIP RUCKER IN HUDSON, NH

“An assault on Mitt Romney’s business career intensified Monday after the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination made an ­off-the-cuff comment that his opponents say shows that he was a corporate predator who sought profits at the expense of workers.”

“Governor Romney enjoys firing people; I enjoy creating jobs,” former Utah governor Jon Huntsman Jr., who polls suggest is enjoying a late surge here, told reporters in Concord. “It may be that he’s slightly out of touch with the economic reality playing out in America right now, and that’s a dangerous place to be.”

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) went further, criticizing the type of business Romney engaged in. “Look, I’m for capitalism,” Gingrich said on NBC’s “Today” show. “But if somebody comes in, takes all the money out of your company and then leaves you bankrupt while they go off with millions, that’s not traditional capitalism.”

Instead of sprinting to the finish before Tuesday’s primary, which he is heavily favored to win, the candidate spent his final day on the New Hampshire campaign trail explaining and defending his role as co-founder and chief executive of Bain Capital. The venture capital firm invested in start-ups such as Staples, an office supplies superstore, but also oversaw large-scale job losses through leveraged buyouts and restructuring.

“Free enterprise will be on trial,” Romney told reporters in Hudson. “I thought it was going to come from the president, from the Democrats on the left, but instead it’s coming from Speaker Gingrich and apparently others. And that’s just part of the process. I’m not worried about that. I’ve got broad shoulders.”

WMUR AND THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE PREDICT A ROMNEY BLOWOUT TOMORROW NIGHT, HAVE HIM UP 24 POINTS IN A POLL RELEASED TODAY

Romney 41%, Paul 17%, Huntsman 11%, Santorum 11%, Gingrich 8%, Perry 1%

SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY/NEWS 7 HAS IT A BIT CLOSER, ROMNEY UP 13

Romney 33%, Paul 20%, Huntsman 13%, Santorum 10%, Santorum 10%, Perry 1%

AND PPP TRACKING PUTS ROMNEY UP BY 17- probably the most accurate assessment of where the race stands

Romney 35%, Paul 18%, Huntsman 16%, Gingrich 12%, Santorum 11%, Perry 1%

IT’S ALL ABOUT EXPECTATIONS...

Will Romney crack 40% tomorrow?
Will anything significantly less be seen as a sign of weakness?
Will Ron Paul pull a strong second or will his support be transfered to another candidate?
Was there a Huntsman surge at the end of the race? Does he come in third, fourth or fifth?
Which candidates hold their New Hampshire primary parties from South Carolina (Rick Perry)?

DRIVING SOUTH CAROLINA- “A BIG CHECK AND GINGRICH GETS A BIG LIFT”- By NICHOLAS CONFESSORE and ERIC LIPTON- THE NEW YORK TIMES-

“MANCHESTER, N.H. — For weeks this winter, as Newt Gingrich’s presidential hopes faltered under the weight of millions of dollars in attack ads paid for by backers of Mitt Romney, a small group of Gingrich supporters quietly lobbied for help from one of the richest men in America: Sheldon Adelson, a billionaire casino owner and Mr. Gingrich’s longtime friend and patron

By the time Mr. Gingrich limped into New Hampshire, some of his top backers had given up on Mr. Adelson and begun prospecting elsewhere, including among erstwhile supporters of Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, to finance the counterattack they believed could salvage Mr. Gingrich’s campaign.

But on Friday, the cavalry arrived: a $5 million check from Mr. Adelson to Winning Our Future, a “super PAC” that supports Mr. Gingrich. By Monday morning, the group had reserved more than $3.4 million in advertising time in South Carolina, a huge sum of money in a state where the airwaves come cheap and the Republican presidential primary is just 11 days away. The group is planning to air portions of a movie critical of Mr. Romney’s time at Bain Capital, the private equity firm he helped found.

The last-minute injection underscores how last year’s landmark Supreme Court ruling on campaign finance has made it possible for a wealthy individual to influence an election. Mr. Adelson’s contribution to the super PAC is 1,000 times the $5,000 he could legally give directly to Mr. Gingrich’s campaign this year.

Several people with knowledge of Mr. Adelson’s decision to donate to Winning Our Future said that it was born out of a two-decade friendship with Mr. Gingrich, his advocacy on behalf of Israel and his turbulent months as a presidential candidate.

“His friend needed his help,” said a close associate of both men, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid drawing Mr. Adelson’s ire. “It’s more than anything else a loyalty thing. And he believes strongly in his platform and in Newt’s candidacy.”

THE DAY’S TOP POLITICAL STORY- WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF BILL DALEY IS STEPPING DOWN-
from National Journal’s George Condon, Jr. at The White House-

“President Obama promised on Monday that the White House will “not miss a beat” even though he was taken by surprise by the resignation of Chief of Staff William Daley and has had to turn to his third person in the post at the beginning of a critical election year.

To replace Daley, the president turned to another Washington veteran, Jack Lew. Lew is the current director of the White House Office of Management and Budget and previously served as a top deputy to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. He also served as an adviser to President Bill Clinton.

“Obviously, this was not easy news to hear,” the president said in the State Dining Room, flanked on each side by Daley and Lew. “And I didn’t accept Bill’s decision right away. In fact, I asked him to take a couple of days to make sure that he was sure about this. But in the end, the pull of the hometown we both love, a city that’s been synonymous with the Daley family for generations, was too great.”

Daley will become a co-chair of the President’s re-election campaign.

WALL STREET TODAY- from CNBC- “Stocks Eek Out a Gain Ahead of Earnings”

• DOW up 33
• NASDAQ up 3
• S&P 500 up 3

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW FOR TOMORROW

VOTING HOURS: Polls open at 7am ET and close in most places, including Manchester, at 7pm. The last polls in the state close at 8pm. That’s the earliest time the networks will make a projection. [and exit polls could provide enough information to make a projection at poll closing time tomorrow].

DIXVILLE NOTCH, NEW HAMPSHIRE HOLDS THE FIRST VOTES OF THE ELECTION, just past midnight ET tonight.

TURNOUT EXPECTATION: 250,000 for the Republican Primary and 75,000 for the Democratic Primary (President Obama is on the ballot uncontested), per the Secretary of State

INDEPENDENTS CAN VOTE: Because New Hampshire is an “open primary”. 40% of New Hampshire’s electorate is independent.

HOW ARE THE DELEGATES AWARDED: Tomorrow’s primary is the first time delegates will be awarded towards the Republican Nomination. Iowa’s caucuses last week were non-binding. They will hold a binding contest later this year to formally apportion delegates. 12 delegates are at stake tomorrow. Ordinarily, NH would have 23 delegates but the state is being penalized by the Republican Party for holding its primary in January, earlier than the official rules allow. Delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate attracting at least 10% of the vote.

WHAT’S NEXT? Two debates in South Carolina next week (Monday and Thursday), ahead of the South Carolina Primary on Saturday January 21st. Then comes the Florida Primary on Tuesday January 31st. That Saturday, February 4th, Nevada holds its caucuses and Maine begins their multi-day caucus. Super Tuesday is on March 6th. The earliest a candidate is likely to have a statistical “hold” on the nomination is on March 20th, after the Illinois Primary.

THREE FAST FACTS ABOUT NEW HAMPSHIRE:

In the last 25 years, only one candidate not named Bush or McCain has won the New Hampshire Republican primary: Pat Buchanan (1996).

And since 1952, no Republican presidential candidate has gone on to win his party’s nomination without finishing either first or second in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire holds more regular statewide and local elections more frequently than any other state in the United States.

2008 NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY RESULTS

John McCain 37.0%
Mitt Romney 31.6%
Mike Huckabee 11.2%
Rudy Giuliani 8.5%
Ron Paul 7.7%
Fred Thompson 1.2%
Turnout: 239,793

THE EVENING REPORT will publish a special post-primary edition tomorow night after the winner is known. Last Tuesday, our post-caucus edition was sent at 12:04am ET. 

2 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
13 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
16 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
23 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

THE LATEST FROM NEW HAMPSHIRE- home of two debateswithin 12 hours this weekend and now less than 48 hours from the first in the nation presidential preference primary-

“Romney Under Attack in in Final NH Debate”- The Washington Post- Karen Tumulty and Amy Gardner- in Concord-

“The unusual morning debate was the 15th of the campaign season — and the second in 10 hours — for the candidates. It was sponsored by NBC News, the New Hampshire Union Leader and Facebook.

In the previous night’s forum, which was aired on ABC, Romney’s opponents had landed few blows on the front-runner.

Romney, initially rattled under the Sunday morning barrage, tried to defend himself — but at times seemed to fuel some of the most damaging perceptions about him.

For instance, he reminded viewers of his background of wealth and privilege when he recounted a bit of “good advice” that his father, a wealthy auto executive who later became governor of Michigan, gave him.

“He said, ‘Mitt, never get involved in politics if you have to win an election to pay a mortgage,’ ” Romney recalled, in a remark that could also be interpreted as a suggestion that only the wealthy should run for office.

And even as his opponents were blasting Romney as being insufficiently committed to the conservative fight, he recounted how, when he had run against Kennedy, he had told his business partners: “I’ll be back in six months. Don’t take my chair.” He also boasted that Kennedy “had to take a mortgage out on his house to ultimately defeat me.”

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM: Romney is expected to win, by a significant margin, Tuesday’s primary. Anything short of a 15 to 20 plus point win will be interpreted as a sign of potential weakness. With such strong expectations, there is an opening for the candidates vying for the second tier to make a run and threaten Romney’s standing. A strong second place could be akin to a victory. That said, the race for 2-5 is much more fluid, with Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman- and possibly Newt Gingrich- possible contenders for any slot.

FOR HUNTSMAN, NEW HAMPSHIRE IS DO OR DIE- the Post’s Sandhya Somashekhar and Nia-Malika Henderson report from Concord-

“Huntsman went for broke here, skipping Iowa and spending virtually the entire campaign in a state that seemed more receptive to his moderate views. For months, he has been trundling from town to town in New Hampshire wearing a silver belt buckle and cowboy boots, delivering mild-mannered critiques of the president and occasionally breaking into his fluent Chinese.

In the final sprint, Huntsman has gained some momentum and is aiming to draw votes from Mitt Romney, the front-runner and candidate with whom Huntsman shares the most ground ideologically.

In a debate Sunday, the former Utah governor drew applause when he chided Romney for criticizing his willingness to serve as ambassador to China under President Obama. “This nation is divided . . . because of attitudes like that,” Huntsman said.

He sounded the same theme a few hours later, when about 250 people packed into a Hampstead coffee shop to hear the Republican hopeful’s stump speech. “I put my country first,” he said. “Apparently, Mitt Romney doesn’t believe in putting country first.”

HUNTSMAN HAD HIS STRONGEST PERFORMANCES TO DATE in the New Hampshire debates this weekend, but it remains to be seen if that is enough to translate into enough votes on Tuesday.

FROM THIS MORNING’S NBC NEWS/FACEBOOK DEBATE ON MEET THE PRESS WITH DAVID GREGORY- as reported by the Huffington Post’s Jon Ward

“I was criticized last night by Gov. Romney for putting my country first,” Huntsman said. “He criticized me while he was out raising money, for serving my country in China, yes under a Democrat, like my two sons are doing in the United States Navy. They’re not asking what political affiliation the president is.”

“I will always put my country first and I think that’s important,” Huntsman said.

Romney essentially doubled down on his assertion that serving as an ambassador under a president of the opposite political party is an unworthy undertaking.

“I think we serve our country first by standing for people who believe in conservative principles and doing everything in our power to promote an agenda that does not include President Obama’s agenda,” Romney said. “The decision to go to work for President Obama is one which you took, and I don’t — I respect your decision to do that. I just think it’s most likely that the person who should represent our party running against President Obama is not someone who called him a remarkable leader and went to be his ambassador in China.”

Huntsman shot back immediately: “This nation is divided because of attitudes like that.”

The crowd applauded Huntsman’s retort. He went on to say that “the American people are tired of the partisan division.”

“They have had enough. There is no trust left among the American people and the institutions of power and among the American people and their elected officials,” Huntsman said.

SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY/NEWS 7 NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL finds Romney with a 15-point lead, however, that is down 8 points from an earlier tracking poll last week

• Romney 35%
• Paul 20%
• Huntsman 11%
• Gingrich 9%
• Santorum 8%
• Perry 1%

NEW KOTECKI VIDEO THIS WEEKEND- A MUST- WATCH- Political analyst & video blogger James Kotecki released a new video this weekend- a parody of Taylor Swift’s “You Belong With Me”- “You Should Vote Romney” 

It’s one of Kotecki’s best videos to date. Make sure you check it out! 

POLITICO’S TOP STORY TONIGHT- “New Hampshire Primary: The Land of Make-Believe”- BY MIKE ALLEN AND JONATHAN MARTIN-

“The trappings are here: debates … diner stops … satellite trucks.

But the contest isn’t: Mitt Romney is holding onto his apparently huge lead over rivals in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, and is looking so strong going into South Carolina’s primary two weeks from now that his advisers privately talk up hopes for a 3-0 sweep of the opening contests - and a quick kill to win.

Maybe that’s why things seem so sleepy here compared to years past. The airwaves are surprisingly free of the nastiness that would normally accompany a six-way primary fight. Local officials complain of lower-than-hoped-for spending everywhere. The whole political circus surrounding the first-in-the-nation primary is taking on an increasing air of make-believe, as journalists converge (though in noticeably fewer numbers than in 2008) to cover a contest with a thoroughly predictable victor.”

QUOTE OF THE DAY- “I know what its like to worry about whether you’re going to get fired. There were a couple of times I wondered whether I was gonna get a pink slip.”- Mitt Romney speaking at a campaign event following this morning’s debate.

If not used by his current Republican rivals, quotes like this will be used by the Obama campaign in the forthcoming general election contest to paint Romney as elite and out of touch.

COMING ATTRACTION- from POLITICO’s James Hohmann- reporting tonight that the Ron Paul campaign will not openly contest the Florida Primary on January 31st and instead will focus their attention on caucus states later in the calendar, especially Louisiana, Nevada and Maine. Watch for Paul to use these contests to rake up delegates, and possibly victories.

WINNING OUR FUTURE- The Super PAC aligned with Newt Gingrich- today released a 3-minute trailer for a forthcoming half hour documentary which is mean to expose Mitt Romney as an corporate raider.

Just this preview is stunning, especially when you consider that it is coming from a fellow Republican candidate. It is Swift Boat-like in its approach. This is also something that might be captured by Super PACs aligned with President Obama and the Democratic Party in a general election. 

FIVE THINGS TO WATCH FOR IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY- from National Journal’s Ron Fournier-

“In the final days leading up to the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, look for …

1. … Jon Huntsman, who posted his strongest debate performance to date on Sunday, to gain ground in the polls. Every vote he picks up will come from Mitt Romney.

2. … Romney to unleash his rumored organizational power for huge closing rallies. If not, you’ve got to wonder why. His New Hampshire crowds were lame until he drew close to 1,000 Saturday morning. Sign of things to come?

3. … Rick Santorum to regret taking the gay-marriage bait in New Hampshire. It killed his Iowa momentum because New Hampshire Republicans are more concerned about the economy than polarizing social issues.

4. … Newt Gingrich to get cranky with the media and Ron Paul, who’s now in second place in polls, to flirt with third.

5. … Rick Perry to talk up the tea party in South Carolina and act like New Hampshire doesn’t mean anything, But it does: He seems to be taking the long way home to Texas (and out of the race).”

TODAY IS THE ONE YEAR ANNIVERSARY of the shooting of Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords in Tucson, Arizona.
Tonight, the recovering Congresswoman led a crowd of thousands at a prayer vigil. CNN reports-

“Soon after the event began, the Arizona Democrat took the stage to lead the crowd in the pledge of allegiance. After receiving help from her husband, Mark Kelly, to put her right hand above her heart, Giffords enthusiastically recited the pledge, her voice strong and demeanor positive, before leaving the stage to applause.

Earlier in the day, the congresswoman’s chief of staff, Pia Carusone, admitted that the attack’s anniversary has been “difficult emotionally for everybody.” So, too, did Giffords’ husband, who also made a point to thank those who have supported his wife and others affected.

“It’s been a tough year, but we’re lucky to have so many people standing w/us,” Kelly, a retired Navy captain and astronaut, wrote on his Twitter account.”

AT THE BOX OFFICE THIS WEEKEND

1/ The Devil Inside $34.5 million
2/ Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol $20.5 million
3/ Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows $14 million
4/ The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo  $11.3 million
5/ Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked $9.5 million

BEYONCE AND JAY-Z HAVE A BABY- NAME IT BLUE IVY- From TMZ (who else?)

“Proud dad Jay-Z, real name Shawn Carter, was at the hospital where Beyonce reportedly birthed Ivy by c-section — and shortly after her arrival … J & B’s famous friends started sending out birth announcements on the Internet.

Rihanna tweeted, “Welcome to the world princess Carter! Love Aunty Rih”

Hip-hop mogul Russell Simmons also took to Twitter, saying … “congrats to my good friends Beyonce and Jay-Z.”

Beyonce famously announced her pregnancy on stage at the MTV Video Music Awards back in August.”

AND/BUT THEY’RE CAUSING A RUCUS AT THE NEW YORK HOSPITAL- Also from TMZ:

“A Brooklyn man claims increased security at Lenox Hill hospital because the presence of Beyonce and Jay-Z kept him from seeing his prematurely born twins … this according to a report.

Neil Coulon tells the NY Daily News he has been repeatedly kept out of the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) by the couple’s security. He also claims his relatives were booted out of the waiting room by bodyguards wearing headsets.

He tells the paper, “Three times they stopped me from entering or exiting the NICU and it happened once on Friday — just because they wanted to use the hallway.”

FINALLY- TIM TEBOW DOES IT AGAIN- ESPN- “TEBOW STUNS STEELERS ON FIRST OVERTIME PLAY”

“DENVER — One of the most storied NFL playoff teams ran into a rejuvenated Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos.

Sorry, Pittsburgh Steelers.
The magic is back.

Tebow connected with Demaryius Thomas on an electrifying 80-yard touchdown pass on the first play of overtime and the Broncos defeated the stunned Steelers 29-23 in the AFC wild-card game on Sunday. Wild doesn’t begin to describe it. The play took 11 seconds and was the quickest ending to an overtime in NFL history.

Thomas hauled in a high play-action pass at the Denver 38, stiff-armed Ike Taylor and then outraced Ryan Mundy to the end zone. Tebow, who looked as startled as everyone else, chased down Thomas and knelt on one knee — a gesture known far and wide these days as Tebowing. Then he pounded a fist in triumph and took a victory lap.

“When I saw him scoring, first of all, I just thought, `Thank you, Lord,” Tebow said. “Then, I was running pretty fast, chasing him — Like I can catch up to D.T! Then I just jumped into the stands, first time I’ve done that. That was fun. Then, got on a knee and thanked the Lord again and tried to celebrate with my teammates and the fans.”

Prodded by John Elway to let the ball fly, Tebow acted as if the last three weeks never happened, lifting the Broncos to their first playoff win in six years.”

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5 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
16 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
19 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
26 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

TOP STORY: President Obama today become the first Commander-in-Chief to hold a press conference in the Pentagon Press Briefing Room, with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Martin Dempsey, to announce a new proposal for the Defense Department budget- historic austerity measures to result in a smaller, leaner military to respond to changing threats and budgetary pressures.

FROM THE LEAD OF TOMORROW’S WASHINGTON POST-

“The U.S. military will steadily shrink the Army and Marine Corps, reduce forces in Europe and probably make further cuts to the nation’s nuclear arsenal…

The downsizing of the Pentagon, prompted by the country’s dire fiscal problems, means that the military will depend more on coalitions with allies and avoid the large-scale counterinsurgency and nation-building operations that have marked the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Instead, the Pentagon will invest more heavily in Special Operations Forces, which have a smaller footprint and require less money than conventional units, as well as drone aircraft and cybersecurity, defense officials said. The military will also shift its focus to Asia to counter China’s rising influence and North Korea’s unpredictability. Despite the end of the Iraq war, administration officials said they would keep a large presence in the Middle East, where tensions with Iran are worsening.”

TOP STORY IN THE ARMY TIMES- “Coming DoD cuts will hit some services harder“ 

THE MARINE CORPS TIMES- ”Long-war abilities cut; focus now on Pacific“ 

BREAKING TONIGHT IN DC POLITICS- City Councilmember Harry Thomas, Jr. has announced he will resign and turn himself in to authorities tomorrow morning on embezzlement charges.

THOMAS’ STATEMENT, IN PART: “Tomorrow morning I will plead guilty to committing two federal crimes. I am resigning my position as a member of the Council effective immediately. I made some very serious mistakes and exhibited inadequate and flawed judgment. I take full responsibility for my actions. I am truly sorry. As a Councilmember and throughout my life, I have dedicated myself to serving the residents and the youth of Washington, D.C. In the pursuit of this work, I made some poor decisions and acted in ways I simply should not have. I was wrong. I want to apologize to those I have let down, including my constituents, neighbors and friends in Ward 5, the residents of this great city, the mayor, my fellow councilmembers and the government officials that serve our city tirelessly.”

COMING ATTRACTION: Tomorrow morning at 8:30am, the Labor Department will release an employment report for the month of December. As it is each month, this report provides a snapshot of the economy and the employment picture. Economists are generally bullish on tomorrow’s report, predicting 150,000 jobs will be reported as added last month.

TODAY ON WALL STREET: Essentially unchanged on the day.

• DOW down 3
• NASDAQ up 21.5
• S&P 500 up 4

CAMPAIGN 2012

BREAKING TONIGHT: The Boston Globe has endorsed Jon Huntsman, bypassing its native son, and former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney, who is widely expected to win Tuesday’s primary. Four years ago, the Globe endorsed John McCain over Romney. McCain went on to win New Hampshire, and the Republican nomination.

FROM THE ENDORSEMENT, IN PART:

“Just three years removed from a Republican administration that was roundly judged a failure, the party has a chance to renew itself - to blaze a path to bipartisan action on the budget, to introduce market-based solutions to health costs, and to construct a post-Iraq War network of alliances to promote global economic strength, knowing that true security comes from both peace and prosperity.

So far, Republican presidential contenders have shown little awareness of this opportunity

And yet the chance for renewal remains. Sour economic data and dysfunction in Washington present major obstacles to Obama’s reelection. Whoever gets the Republican nomination could easily become president. Among the candidates, only two stand out as truly presidential, Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman.

But while Romney proceeds cautiously, strategically, trying to appease enough constituencies to get himself the nomination, Huntsman has been bold. Rather than merely sketch out policies, he articulates goals and ideals. The priorities he would set for the country, from leading the world in renewable energy to retooling education and immigration policies to help American high-tech industries, are far-sighted. He has stood up far more forcefully than Romney against those in his party who reject evolution and the science behind global warming.

With a strong record as governor of Utah and US ambassador to China, arguably the most important overseas diplomatic post, Huntsman’s credentials match those of anyone in the field. He would be the best candidate to seize this moment in GOP history, and the best-prepared to be president.”

HUNTSMAN IS POLLING AT SEVEN PERCENT in a Suffolk University Poll out today, conducted since the results of Tuesday’s Iowa Caucus. Mitt Romney holds a 23 point lead.

• Romney 41%
• Paul 18%
• Santorum 8%
• Gingrich 7%
• Huntsman 7%

THE WASHINGTON TIMES HAS MITT UP BY 14 in New Hampshire

• Romney 38%
• Paul 24%
• Santorum 11%
• Gingrich 9%
• Huntsman 8%
• Perry 1%

NATIONALLY, ROMNEY HOLDS A 8-POINT LEAD over Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich, now his chief rivals (by the polls) for the Republican Nomination

RASMUSSEN: Romney 29%, Santorum 21%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 12%, Perry 4, Huntsman 4%

GALLUP: Romney 27%, Gingrich 19%, Paul 13%, Santorum 11%, Perry 6%, Huntsman 2%

THE NEW HAMPSHIRE DEBATES:

Saturday, 9pm ET, Saint Anselm College, Manchester, NH, ABC News/WMUR-TV

Sunday, 9am ET, Chubb Theatre at the Capitol Center for the Arts, Concord, NH, NBC News/Facebook/NH Union-Leader

They will be the 14th & 15th debates of the 2011/12 primary season.

WHO WON THE DAY? Newt Gingrich, says POLITICO’S Alex Burns.

“It may all be too little, too late for Newton Leroy Gingrich, but for the first time in a long time, the former House speaker looked like a candidate with some fight in him.

His campaign put out an ad contrasting his leadership with the “timid” Mitt Romney. Gingrich ridiculed Romney on the trail as a tax-raising “moderate.” And the Union Leader, which endorsed him for president back when times were good, printed a front-page editorial calling for voters to learn the lesson of Iowa and reject the “squishy-moderate” Romney.

It remains to be seen if Gingrich’s campaign is still salvageable, and a Suffolk University tracking poll found that he had fallen into a tie for fourth place in New Hampshire with Jon Huntsman. Still, both Gingrich’s supporters and his opponents see the possibility of another political resurrection in South Carolina.”

FIGHTING WORDS FROM GINGRICH ON THE TRAIL TONIGHT:

“Gov. Romney ran for governor, called himself — I’m not making these words up — called himself a moderate,” Gingrich said. “As governor, he appointed liberal judges to appease the Democrats. As governor, he raised taxes.”

TOP TALKER- “Santorum Raises Polygamy in Defending Stand Against Gay Marriage”- National Journal- Naureen Khan and Ron Fournier in Concord

“In a spirited debate with gay-rights supporters, GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum on Thursday defended his opposition to liberalizing marriage laws by raising the specter of polygamy.“What about three men?” he asked.
The comment evoked memories of the ex-Pennsylvania senator’s controversial statement to the Associated Press in 2003 in which he associated gay sex with incest and bestiality.

Santorum encouraged the debate with several audience members who attended his address at a college convention sponsored by New England College. The audience of about 200 people included several supporters of Santorum’s rival, libertarian Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. Some booed Santorum when he left the stage.

One audience member, a college-aged man, asked Santorum how gay marriage affected him personally. A young woman asked him to justify his embrace of constitutional freedoms such as life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness while at the same time denying the right for gay couples to marry.

FROM SANTORUM’S STATEMENT IN 2003 TO USA TODAY 

“We have laws in states, like the one at the Supreme Court right now, that has sodomy laws and they were there for a purpose. Because, again, I would argue, they undermine the basic tenets of our society and the family. And if the Supreme Court says that you have the right to consensual sex within your home, then you have the right to bigamy, you have the right to polygamy, you have the right to incest, you have the right to adultery. You have the right to anything. Does that undermine the fabric of our society? I would argue yes, it does. It all comes from, I would argue, this right to privacy that doesn’t exist in my opinion in the United States Constitution, this right that was created.”

TONIGHT’S HUFFINGTON POST BANNER

“STAY CLASSY, RICK
Santorum Compares Gay Marriage To Polygamy”

THE WAY WE SEE IT: Watch for this story to blow up tomorrow, and doom Santorum’s chances of continuing his Iowa momentum any further.

FINALLY…If you were scrolling through your Twitter feed late last night, you might have seen KANYE WEST go on a rant. More than 80 of them. Over 3 hours. In a rambling train of thoughts. Reuters makes some sense of it-

“We need to take what Michael Jackson felt and Mcqueen and Steve Jobs and we need make things better,” West said on Twitter during the early hours of Thursday morning from London, referring to the late singing legend, fashion designer Alexander McQueen and Apple’s founding visionary.

Media outlets tried to interpret West’s posts in various ways, with publications such as Slate focusing on West’s announcement of design company DONDA, while others like MTV opted to highlight tweets telling readers what was on the rapper’s mind.

“He’s a mad genius,” said Ian Drew, music editor of Us Weekly. “His ideas are grandiose, but if you look at the history of Kanye, he would tweet an idea and it would happen. He’s trying to be understood and heard.”

“In general, Kanye is someone who thinks he is incredibly important,” said Cooper Lawrence, author of “The Cult of Celebrity.”

She said the Twitter posts “showed insight into who he really is,” and speculated on the rapper’s mental condition, saying she “wouldn’t be surprised if Kanye was suffering from depression.”

AGAIN TONIGHT WE WELCOME our new subscribers who came via a link in this morning’sCOLLEGE DAYBREAK. Welcome to the Evening Report, we’re glad to have you! 

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1 DAY UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
8 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
19 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
22 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS

QUOTE OF THE DAY (SHOT) “I don’t think I’m going to win,” Newt Gingrich, to ABC News about his chances in tomorrow’s Iowa Caucus

AND/BUT (CHASER) ”We may pull off one of the greatest upsets in the history of the Iowa caucuses,” Newt Gingrich in a tele-town hall later tonight

QUOTE OF THE DAY RUNNER UP: “You got a name? You got a name? You got a name?” Rick Perry to POLITICO’s Mike Allen after being challenged to answer questions about the loyalty of his campaign advisors.

AND FINALLY...RICK SANTORUM SAID THE FOLLOWING TODAY ”I don’t want to make black people’s lives better by giving them somebody else’s money; I want to give them the opportunity to go out and earn the money.”

TODAY ON THE TRAIL- All over the state. From the Washington Post’s team of political reporters group-filing tomorrow’s A1 lead piece:

“Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s agenda included four cities, spread over 269 miles. Former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.) drove a 171-mile circuit around Iowa’s navel. And Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.), the third candidate in the lead pack, began a long trek across northeastern part of the state, making five stops over 391 miles.”

“Over the past few months, Iowa has embraced and then rejected four charismatic front-runners: Rep. Michele Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich and pizza executive Herman Cain.”

KEY PASSAGE: “Now, the state seems set to split its vote among three candidates chosen, instead, for the ideas they represent.

For Romney, those are steadiness and electability.

For Paul, they are small government and personal liberty.

And Santorum’s appeal is based on his socially conservative views on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.”

WHAT WE MISSED: Newt Gingrich is recovering from the flu, which his campaign says was particularly bad on Friday and Saturday last week

THE LATEST FROM SANTORUM- He’s facing very tough questions about his endorsement of Mitt Romney in 2008 and about his position on abortion- and conflicting statements he gave on both during a Meet the Press interview yesterday. As Santorum is surging in the polls, he is now undergoing intensive media scrutiny.

THE LATEST FROM ROMNEY- He won the day. According to POLITICO’s Alexander Burns.

“…There were three good omens for Romney Monday that suggest no matter who wins in Iowa, he’ll be in good shape for the long haul.

The first was a harsh attack on Rick Santorum, mounted by Rick Perry on cable TV and on the campaign trail. The Texan blasted Santorum for having “raised the debt limit more than Obama” and supporting “the bridge to nowhere in Arizona” (he meant Alaska.) Both Perry and his wife, Anita, vowed to press on after Iowa, taking their campaign to South Carolina and also New Hampshire, where Perry isn’t scheduled to appear this week.

Perry wasn’t the only other Republican attacking Santorum. In a second Romney-friendly development, Ron Paul’s campaign got in on the action, with national chairman Jesse Benton accusing Santorum of having a “horrible record on the Second Amendment,” and telling POLITICO Santorum’s record on “so many other issues is so poor he can’t stand up to real criticism.”

And in a third, counterintuitively pro-Romney turn of events, Newt Gingrich vowed to stay in the race past Iowa and train his guns more intently on the GOP front-runner, whose supporters Gingrich blames for tearing down his own campaign.”

AND THEN ROMNEY PREDICTED VICTORY, TELLLING SUPPORTERS TONIGHT

“We’re going to win this thing with all our passion and strength and do everything we can to get this campaign on the right track to go across the nation and to pick up the states and to get the ballots I need and the votes I need to become our nominee. That’s what we’re going to get, with your help.

THE LATEST FROM PAUL- National Journal- “Paul Battles Assumptions He Can’t Win Outside Iowa”

“Paul has sought to defy the conventional wisdom that his campaign will end in Iowa by beginning to air television ads in New Hampshire, which votes Jan. 10, and in South Carolina, which holds its primary on Jan. 21”

Indeed, Paul is on the air in New Hampshire with what his campaign his calling his “closing argument”

INSIDER ADVANTAGE POLL TODAY GIVES ADVANTAGE ROMNEY, but the top three are well within the margin of error

Romney 23%
Paul 22%
Santorum 18%
Gingrich 16%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 2%

PPP POLL TODAY GIVES ADVANTAGE PAUL, but still, we have a three-way race on our hands. 

Paul 20%
Romney 19%
Santorum 18%
Gingrich 14%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 8%
Huntsman 4%

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT

• Caucus officially starts at 8pm.
• The first results should start coming in at about 8:30pm.
• Four years ago, Sen. Obama’s victory in Iowa was declared at 9:25pm ET.

• In 2008, Republicans saw a record caucus turnout of 118,000+ and many party officials also expect a record or near-record turnout this year.
• There are more than 1,700 precincts in Iowa that will be holding caucuses tomorrow night.

• In the modern primary system, only one Republican has won Iowa and gone on to be elected President (George W. Bush in 2000)
• In 2008, John McCain became the only Republican to finish outside of the Iowa top 3 and still go on to become the nominee
• Herbert Hoover is the only Iowan to be elected President

2008 REPUBLICAN IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS

Mike Huckabee 34.4%
Mitt Romney 25.2%
Fred Thompson 13.4%
John McCain 13%
Ron Paul 9.9%
Rudy Giuliani 3.4%
Turnout: 118,411

2008 Iowa Presidential Vote: Barack Obama 828,940 (54%) John McCain 682,379 (44%)

THE EVENING REPORT’S CONVENTIONAL WISDOM:

Mitt Romney will become the Republican nominee. He may face a challenge from the Republican right over the next six weeks but it will not be long, drawn out or fatal. A Santorum or Paul win in Iowa ultimately helps Romney. Santorum doesn’t have the organization to compete nationally and he will be crushed in New Hampshire next week. Paul is too crazy to ever win the Republican nomination or the presidency. It will be clear that Romney is the nominee by the State of the Union in three weeks. He may lose some states during the primary season and because of the way the party is awarding delegates, it may not be until March when he officially becomes the nominee, but everyone will know in a matter of days or weeks that 2012 will be Obama v. Romney.

COMING ATTRACTION: GOP BATTLE PLAN AGAINST OBAMA: USE HIS OWN WORDS AGAINST HIM- The Washington Post Monday top story-

“GOP officials in Washington are quietly and methodically finishing what operatives are calling “the book” — 500 pages of Obama quotes and video links that will form the backbone of the party’s attack strategy against the president leading up to Election Day 2012.

The document, portions of which were reviewed by The Washington Post, lays out how GOP officials plan to use Obama’s words and voice as they build an argument for his defeat: that he made specific promises and entered office with lofty expectations and has failed to deliver on both.

Republican officials say they will leverage the party’s newly catalogued video library containing every publicly available utterance from Obama since his 2008 campaign. Television and Internet ads will juxtapose specific Obama promises of job gains, homeowner assistance, help for people in poverty, lower health insurance premiums and stricter White House ethics standards against government data and news clippings that paint a different reality.

The decision by GOP officials to finalize a strategy at this stage underscores the view, in both parties, that the general-election campaign has begun — even if an official Republican nominee has not been selected.

The new GOP playbook is designed to take one of Obama’s great assets — the power of his oratory — and turn it into a liability. It details hundreds of potential targets, partially a result of a president who Republican strategists say is unusually prone to making detailed promises.”

FINALLY- Take a few minutes to think about how far we’ve come over the last six months leading up to tomorrow’s caucus- which itself is only the start of the Republican primary season. Through 13 debates, we’ve watched candidate after candidate rise and fall in public opinion polling. The title frontrunner has been awarded to Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney and, in the past week, we’ve seen the Santorum Surge. Tomorrow, Iowans caucus. And then, it’s on to New Hampshire…and South Carolina…and Florida…and Nevada…and…

WATCH- Political analyst & satirist James Kotecki today released a new video: The Iowa Surge Song (Old MacDonald Parody).

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2 DAYS UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
9 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
20 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
23 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

THE LATEST FROM IOWA- headline from The Fix’s Chris Cillizza- on the ground in Des Moines- “Romney has best odds, Santorum has the momentum”

CILLIZZA- “At this point, there’s not much left for the candidates — or the reporters who cover them — to do but wait and wonder.”

But, in fact, THERE IS ONE MORE NEWS CYCLE BETWEEN NOW AND CAUCUS DAY- So tomorrow is pivotal. Which of the following will be Monday’s story line?

• Santorum’s surge continues and he looks to be the come from behind winner of the Caucus
• Santorum’s support is falling as social conservatives take one final look. He’s likely to finish a close 2nd or 3rd behind Romney
• Perry’s support is growing and he is challenging Santorum and Paul for the top three
• Or something else

WHAT TO WATCH- does the Romney campaign engage with Santorum before Iowa or does the campaign (or perhaps the uncoordinated Super PACS supporting Romney) wait until the week before New Hampshire?

ONE THING IS CLEAR- the media is infatuated with Rick Santorum right now. For better or worse, he is getting all of the attention- and will through Caucus Day, unless something changes.

NEWT’S GOING NEGATIVE- but will it be too little too late for the embattled former frontrunner?

from POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin in MARSHALLTOWN, IOWA

“Leaving his pledge of a positive campaign behind, Gingrich pressed a tough line of attack that portrayed the former Massachusetts governor as soft on abortion - a major vulnerability for the frontrunner that hadn’t been raised directly by any of his opponents.

“I think New Hampshire is the perfect state to have a debate over Romneycare and to have a debate about tax-paid abortions, which he signed, and to have a debate about putting Planned Parenthood  on a government board, which he signed, and to have a debate about appointing liberal judges, which he did,” said Gingrich, starting in Marshalltown, Iowa, the case he’ll take to the Granite State and beyond next week.

Gingrich’s comments suggest that his contrast with Romney on taxes this week either didn’t penetrate or aren’t  sufficient to take down the frontrunner and that he needs to attack the former pro-abortion rights governor on a more explosive issue.”

QUOTE OF THE DAY- from Mitt Romney tonight in Council Bluffs, Iowa-

“You know, I’ve been looking at some video clips on YouTube, of President Obama, then candidate Obama, going through Iowa making promises. The gap between his promises and his performance is the largest I’ve seen since, well, the Kardashian wedding and the promise of ‘til death do us part.”

FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF NON-CONTENDERS IN THE IOWA CAUCUS: This interesting fundraising pitch from Jon Huntsman, who is skipping Iowa but making a run in New Hampshire next week, today in an e-mail to supporters:

“I am so humbled at the tremendous response we’ve received that today I am adding a special wrinkle: from now until midnight Wednesday, Mary Kaye and I will personally match – dollar for dollar – every new donation our campaign receives.

In just a few minutes, I will be holding a town hall in Deerfield, New Hampshire – our third event of the day, and 143rd event in the state. With only nine days to go until New Hampshire’s primary, it is critical that we have the resources – both on the ground and on TV – to compete with Mitt Romney.”

MORE FROM HUNTSMAN- A web video attack ad against RON PAUL’s foreign policy released this weekend, which is straight out of the Twilight Zone. Literally. 

THE POLL DRIVING THE WEEKEND- the Des Moines Register survey released at 8pm ET on New Year’s Eve- which found a three-way dead heat between ROMNEY, PAUL and SANTORUM

Romney 24%, Paul 22%, Santorum 15%, Gingrich 12%, Perry 11%, Bachmann 7%, Huntsman 2%

WAITING FOR the final PPP poll before the Caucus to be released later tonight

WHO WON THE DAY? Rick Santorum, according to POLITICO’s James Hohmann

“He’s facing intensifying scrutiny, but he’s also now THE center of attention out here, from Meet the Press to cable chatter. Momentum is his best friend. He’s in the right place at the right time.Voters we talked to at his event here make us feel like there’s definitely something of a bandwagon effect going on..”

TOMORROW’S TOP TALKER- New York Times- “Google Hones Its Advertising Message, Playing to Emotions”

“Though Google is a household name, it needs to tell its story now for a few reasons. It needs new businesses like the Chrome browser and the Google Plus social network to succeed if it is going to find sources of revenue beyond search ads.

The ads are also part of Google’s mission, led by Larry Page, its co-founder and chief executive, to pare down its product offering and make Google products more attractive, intuitive and integrated with one another

BIG QUOTE- “Google’s an online brand,” [Google Event Planner Lorin] Pollack said. “You can’t experience the brand except for typing keys. It’s a huge responsibility to actually bring that brand to life outside of the computer.”

AT THE BOX OFFICE- so far- results for the four day holiday weekend that is continuing-

1/ Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol $31.2 million
2/ Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows $22 million
3/ Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked $18.3 million
4/ War Horse $16.9 million
5/ The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo  $16.3 million

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL- GIANTS 14, DALLAS 0 with 4 minutes left in the 2nd

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4 DAYS UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
11 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
22 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Politics has become a really nasty, vicious, negative business and I think it’s disgusting and I think it’s dishonest”- Newt Gingrich to ABC’s Jonathan Karl

HIGHLIGHTS FROM TODAY ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

GINGRICH TEARS UP- from The Washington Post-

“Gingrich was asked to speak about a time his mother affected him at the event sponsored by CafeMom, a social networking website for mothers.

“You’ll get me all teary-eyed — Callista will tell you, I get teary-eyed every time we sing Christmas carols. My mother sang in the choir and loved singing in the choir,” Gingrich said, referring to his wife, as he fought back tears.

“But I identify my mother with being happy, loving life, having a sense of joy in her friends, but what she introduced me to, is late in her life she ended up in a long-term-care facility. She had bipolar disease, and depression, and she gradually acquired some physical ailments, and that introduced me to the issue of long-term care, which I did with [Former Nebraska Sen.] Bob Kerrey for three years, and that introduced me to the issue of Alzheimer’s, which I did with Bob Kerrey for three more years, and my whole emphasis on brain science comes indirectly from dealing with the real problems of real people in my family,” the former House Speaker continued, at moments stopping to cry.
The audience sympathetically cheered for Gingrich as he spoke about his mother.

“I do policy much easier than I do personal,” Gingrich joked.

WATCH VIDEO

FLASHBACK: Hillary Clinton January 2008, one day before the New Hampshire Primary that she went on to win- “This is very personal for me, it’s not just political, it’s not just public”

CHASER: Mitt Romney this evening at an event, via POLITICO’s Maggie Haberman:

“Here in Merrimack, Romney started talking about his parents and what they meant to him, and how they taught him to love America — and said, “No, no, I won’t cry.

ROMNEY SON MAKES A BIRTHER JOKE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE- via the Washington Post-

“He’s certainly not afraid of anything. He’s not hiding anything,” Matt Romney said in response to an query from an audience member on whether the former Massachusetts governor would release his tax returns. “You know, I heard someone suggest the other day that as soon as President Obama releases his grades and birth certificate and sort of a long list of things, then maybe he’d do it.”

Perhaps sensing trouble, the eldest Romney brother, Tagg, quickly jumped in.

“That was not my dad saying that,” he told the crowd.

“No, no, no, that was just a suggestion from someone else,” Matt Romney added.

AND THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN SEIZES ON IT- via ABC’s Jake Tapper-

“In a fundraising email, Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina pounced like a jungle caton a remark made by Mitt Romney’s son Matt, 40, seeking to paint his father as appealing to extreme elements.

“Friend,” wrote Messina in a mass email to supporters, “You’ve got to hear this. Asked at a Romney campaign event whether his father would follow decades of precedent and release his tax returns, Mitt Romney’s adult son Matt quoted the most recent Tea Party line, saying: ‘… As soon as President Obama releases his grades, and birth certificate, and sort of a long list of things, then maybe he will.’”

Asserted Messina, “This is how the Romney campaign thinks it’s going to win the Republican primary: by pandering to the dead-ender fringe of extremists who still question where the President was born. We can’t make them rewrite their talking points. But we can drive up the cost of this kind of politics.”

WELCOME TO THE GENERAL ELECTION

2012’s BIG STORY- RON PAUL TO AL HUNT ON POTENTIAL FOR A THIRD PARTY RUN ”I’ve never been an absolutist and say absolutely might or absolutely will, but I have no intention of doing. I can’t imagine it happening…we’re doing pretty well in the polls. So I’d better concentrate on the polls rather than on something like that.”

ROMNEY LEADING PAUL IN NBC/MARIST POLL IN IOWA

Romney 23%
Paul 21%
Santorum 15%
Perry 14%
Gingrich 13%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 2%

AND CONTINUES TO LEAD IN GALLUP DAILY TRACKING (NATIONAL)

Romney 26%
Gingrich 14%
Paul 11%
Perry 7%
Bachmann 5%
Santorum 5%
Huntsman 2%

TOMORROW at 7pm, the final Des Moines Register poll before the Caucus is released. We’ll have the results in a special Saturday edition of THE EVENING REPORT.

YOU’LL SEE THIS STORY AGAIN- Huffington Post’s Sam Stein- “Obama Campaign In Iowa Hopes To Flex Organizing Muscle”

“The Obama reelection campaign is paying significant attention to the Jan. 3 caucus, not just as a means of assessing future competition but also as a dry run for the 2012 general election. The president will technically be on the ballot. And his team would love nothing more than for him to scoop up more votes than some of the top names in the GOP primary. But the prevailing concern is to reengage the network of Hawkeye State supporters who initially pushed Barack Obama to the White House and to bring new ones into the fold.

In reporting on the Obama reelection team’s efforts in Iowa earlier this week, Politico referred to their work as a “shadow campaign.” In actuality, reelection aides are hoping that it ends up being a fairly open illustration of the very different styles of the president and his opponents.

“We have built this campaign from the ground up just like in ‘07 and ‘08,” said one Obama campaign official. “And in ‘07 and ‘08, it left a legacy in states in which we had a really strong field program and were able to engage volunteers. And what is clear is that Romney and the other candidates, rather than investing in organization and supporters on the ground, have instead competed on the air and on a national stage, and they haven’t left a legacy of a strong organization in states across the country. And they are not going to be able to just flip a switch. It takes time.”

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND: Endorsements matter in the hours before the Caucus. Also watch the DMR poll tomorrow night. This year’s caucus is unusual in that it falls the day after a long holiday weekend. Caucus-goers will be at home, likely watching local media, so small stories could make a big difference if they get significant media attention.

MUST-READ: NBC’s “Decision 2012: Iowa Caucus & New Hampshire Primary Guide” (.pdf) This is the briefing book NBC political reporters and anchors are reading this weekend to prepare for the next two weeks of political coverage.

WALL STREET- the final trading day of the year- from CNBC

• DOW down 69
• NASDAQ down 9
• S&P 500 down 5

DOW closed at 12217.56, finishing 1.4% higher for the month of December and 5.5% higher for the year.
NASDAQ closed at 2605.15, down 1.8% this year.
S&P 500 closed at 1257.60, essentially unchanged for 2011.

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6 DAYS UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
13 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
24 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

TOP STORY- “Romney, Santorum Rising in Iowa”- The Washington Post’s Amy Gardner on the ground in Des Moines-

“There was evidence of growing intensity on both sides of the argument [today] as the candidates crisscrossed the state on a frenzied day of campaigning.

Against the backdrop of persistent questions about his conservative credentials, Romney drew enthusiastic crowds as he rumbled across eastern Iowa in a bus making the case that he is the most electable Republican in the field.

The support lost by Gingrich, whose front-runner status made him the subject of a barrage of negative TV ads, flowed to other candidates, notably Santorum

In one bit of good news for Gingrich on Wednesday, his campaign announced that it had raised $9 million in the past quarter. That is enough money to allow him to respond to some of the negative attacks and continue his campaign into later contests.

After months of being near the bottom of the standings, San­torum has surged, becoming the latest symbol of the Republican electorate’s continuing search for a satisfactory candidate. His new statewide radio ad, “Unite,” promotes his record on abortion and dubs him the “one consistent conservative” in the race.”

GAME CHANGE: With six days to go before voting begins, ROMNEY and SANTORUM are rising,GINGRICH is falling, PAUL is in a fight for second and PERRY and BACHMANN are fighting to stay relevant.

WHAT DROVE THE DAY: A new poll from CNN that found MITT ROMNEY leading the field in Iowa, with RON PAUL second and RICK SANTORUM third. 

Romney 25%

Paul 22%

Santorum 16%

Gingrich 14%

Perry 11%

Bachmann 9%

Huntsman 1%

ALSO FROM IOWA, A PPP Poll that finds RON PAUL with a four point lead over ROMNEY

Paul 24%

Romney 20%

Gingrich 13%

Bachmann 11%

Perry 10%

Santorum 10%

Huntsman 4%

GALLUP NATIONAL TRACKING- Gingrich and Romney are tied

Gingrich 25%

Romney 25%

Paul 11%

Perry 8%

Bachmann 5%

Santorum 4%

Huntsman 1%

Meanwhile, a CNN survey from New Hampshire also released this afternoon shows MITT ROMNEYwith a rock solid 27-point lead OVER RON PAUL in the first primary state.

THE WASHINGTON MACHINE- In what must be a nominee for best campaign ad of the 2012 cycle to date, today the PAUL campaign released a new 30-second attack ad aiming at both Gingrich and Romney. 

LEADING POLITICO TONIGHT, “Mitt Looks to Lock Down Iowa”

“Buoyed by internal polling and a CNN survey released Wednesday afternoon that showed Newt Gingrich falling to fourth place in Iowa, with Ron Paul in second and Rick Santorum climbing to third, Romney told reporters in a deli here that he couldn’t think of a reason why he won’t win the state.

“I can’t imagine, except that there are other good people running, and they’ve got good campaigns,” he said. “I like the fact that my support is building and the momentum is positive, but I can’t tell you where it’s going to end up.”

Romney will spend the next three days in the state intensifying his focus in Iowa at a moment when the state, and possibly an early wrap-up of the nomination, are now tantalizingly in reach.

He’s nearly 30 points ahead in his New Hampshire stronghold, which will vote the week after Iowa.Wins in both will make it increasingly hard for his rivals to continue their campaigns.”

AS NATIONAL JOURNAL’S ETHAN KLAPPER ASKED TODAY...if Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire, how long before the GOP nomination is completely locked up? Developments so far this week seem far removed from discussion, as recently as this past weekend, of a prolonged primary season and even a contested convention.

BREAKING TONIGHT FROM THE BATTLE FOR THIRD IN IOWA…Michele Bachmann’s Iowa campaign manager, Kent Sorenson, has resigned and is now working for RON PAUL.

The latest from POLITICO’s Alexander Burns

“Sorenson made the announcement at a Paul rally with veterans here in Des Moines, telling the crowd: “I believe we’re at a turning point in this campaign.”

Calling the decision to abandon Bachmann a painful one, Sorenson said he felt obligated to join Paul as the “Republican establishment” tries to undermine his campaign.

“I thought it was my duty to come to his aid, just like he came to my aid during my Senate race, which was a very nasty race,” Sorenson said, pledging to go all-out for Paul over the next few days.

To cheers from the crowd, he continued: “We’re going to take Ron Paul all the way to the White House.”

SO WHO WON THE DAY? Alex says it’s Rick Santorum.

“At the start of the month, Rick Santorum needed the following things to happen in order for him to be competitive in Iowa: Newt Gingrich needed to fade. Evangelicals needed to move toward his campaign. Then voters needed to see some tangible sign of momentum, in order to speed up the tortoise-like pace of his Iowa campaign.

The former Pennsylvania senator has now gotten at least a dose of all three ingredients. Gingrich’s campaign has lost ground in every recent Iowa poll. Santorum won the endorsement of a number of high-profile Christian conservatives, including the head of The Family Leader. And today, Santorum placed third in an Iowa poll for the first time, running fairly close behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in a CNN/Time magazine survey.”

DEPARTMENT OF MAKING THINGS WORSE- Newt Gingrich today attempted to explain his March cruise in Greece by saying it gave him a better understanding of the financial crisis that began in Greece and now threatens the European economy

“Ironically, being in Greece during the Greek crisis was very helpful and gave me a much deeper perspective of how hard this was going to be,” he said.

TOP BELTWAY TALKER IN THE MORNING- Helene Cooper in the New York Times- White House Memo: “Bipartisan Agreement: Obama Isn’t Schmoozing”

“Mr. Obama, in general, does not go out of his way to play the glad-handing, ego-stroking presidential role. While he does sometimes offer a ride on Air Force One to a senator or member of Congress, more often than not, he keeps Congress and official Washington at arm’s length, spending his down time with a small — and shrinking — inner circle of aides and old friends.

He typically golfs with a trio of mid- to low-level staff members little known outside the West Wing. He does not spend much time at Camp David, the retreat other presidents have used to woo Washington. His social life runs toward evenings playing Taboo with old friends and their families, Wii video games with his wife and daughters or basketball with Robert Wolf, a banker and the rare new best friend Mr. Obama has acquired since entering politics. He vacations with friends from Chicago on Martha’s Vineyard in August and in Hawaii at Christmas.

This week, for example, Mr. Obama is ensconced in the protective bubble of the Secret Service. With him are his closest outside-the-Beltway-friends, including Eric Whitaker, a Chicago doctor, and two of Mr. Obama’s Hawaii friends from Punahou School: Mike Ramos, a businessman,and Robert Titcomb, a commercial fisherman whom Mr. Obama has stuck by despite his arrest in April on suspicion of soliciting a prostitute. Mr. Obama bolted from Washington last Friday barely an hour after he had signed legislation extending the payroll tax cut after a grinding fight with House Republicans whose result is widely viewed as a big win for him. His relationship with Washington insiders is described by members of both parties as “remote,” “distant” and “perfunctory.”

KEY QUOTE: “This is not a Lincoln bedroom guy,” said James Carville, the Democratic strategist, referring to the guest bedroom at the White House where President Bill Clinton put up supporters and donors. “In fact, he’s the anti-Lincoln bedroom guy. He doesn’t seem to relish, or even like, having politicians around.”

WALL STREET- from CNBC- ”Stocks End Near Lows, S&P Negative for 2011”

• DOW down 140
• NASDAQ down 35
• S&P 500 down 16

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