The Golden Report

HAPPENING NOW- Game Four of the 2011 World Series. TOP OF THE SEVENTH-
Rangers 4, Cardinals 0

FIRST LOOK: After a second failed attempt by the Senate to bring up
the President’s American Jobs Act proposal this past week, the
Administration will continue its campaign for the law in the week
ahead, starting tomorrow, with a slightly different theme, “We Can’t
Wait,” and a series of proposed executive branch actions to spur
economic activity (growth) and job creation, without direct
legislative action. A New York Times story today sets the scene (and
is being pushed by Administration officials Dan Pfieffer and Jay
Carney tonight via Twitter)

“According to an administration official, Mr. Obama will kick off his
new offensive in Las Vegas, ground zero of the housing bust, by
promoting new rules for federally guaranteed mortgages so that more
homeowners, those with little or no equity in their homes, can
refinance and avert foreclosure.

And Wednesday in Denver, the official said, Mr. Obama will announce
policy changes to ease college graduates’ repayment of federal loans,
seeking to alleviate the financial concerns of students considering
college at a time when states are raising tuition.”

The “We can’t wait” campaign is a new phase in Mr. Obama’s so-far
unsuccessful effort — punctuated until now by his cries of “Pass this
bill!” on the stump — to pressure Republicans to support the job
creation package he proposed after Labor Day. It comes after unanimous
votes by Senate Republicans in the past week to block the plan; House
Republican leaders have refused to put the measure to a vote.”

THE PRESIDENTS WEEK AHEAD: Tomorrow- Las Vegas, and then to Los
Angeles. Tuesday- records Jay Leno and then on to San Francisco.
Wednesday- Denver and back to Washington. The West Coast trip will be
a mix of campaign fundraisers and White House events for the American
Jobs Act.

WHAT THE ADMINISTRATION IS THINKING- back to the Calmes Article- which is highly sourced-

“Polls show overwhelming support for pieces of the $447 billion
package, which includes expanded tax cuts for workers and employers,
and spending for infrastructure projects and for state aid to keep
teachers and emergency responders at work. But Republicans oppose
provisions in Mr. Obama’s plan that would offset the costs with higher
taxes on the wealthy.

Should the bill ultimately fail, Democrats believe they at least have
the better political argument, and they vow to exploit what they call
the Republicans’ obstruction in the 2012 campaign.”

THIS WEEKEND ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

Nevada Republicans agreed to change the date of their early state
caucuses next year, from a proposed January 14th date, to Saturday
February 4th- after votes in Florida and South Carolina- and allowing
New Hampshire to follow Iowa in early January with the traditional,
and historical, first in the nation presidential primary

New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, who demanded that
Nevada change the date of their caucus- and threatened to hold his
state’s primary as early as December 6th if necessary- is likely to
announce the official date of the 2012 New Hampshire Primary this
week- between Iowa and South Carolina on Tuesday January 10th.

Therefore, the early state calendar will go like this: IOWA-Tuesday
01/03, NEW HAMPSHIRE- Tuesday 01/10, SOUTH CAROLINA- Saturday 01/21, FLORIDA- Tuesday 01/31, NEVADA & MAINE- Saturday 02/04, COLORADO & MINNESOTA- Tuesday 02/07, ARIZONA & MICHIGAN- Tuesday 02/28, WASHINGTON- Saturday 03/03 and SUPER TUESDAY on Tuesday 03/06.

Remember- all of the states before April will award their delegates
proportionally. That means that it will likely not be until Super
Tuesday in March when a presumptive nominee will be officially
declared. With the calendar just about settled, it’s looking like a
two month primary season before that point.

THE FRONTRUNNERS:

MITT ROMNEY- will officially file paperwork for the New Hampshire
primary ballot tomorrow, when he will also announce the endorsement of
Former NH Sen. John Sununu

RICK PERRY- will unveil the second piece of his “jobs and fiscal
reform” plan on Tuesday in South Carolina, when he will announce his
support for a rewrite of the tax code and the institution of a “flat
tax”

NO DEBATE this week..or next week..the next scheduled debate (the
ninth) will be on Wednesday November 09 in Rochester, Michigan. There
is one other debate (the following Tuesday, 11/15) scheduled in
November.

DECEMBER DEBATE SCHEDULE: 12/01- Phoenix; 12/10- Des Moines; 12/15- Sioux City

JANUARY DEBATE SCHEDULE: 01/16- Myrtle Beach; 01/19- Charleston;
01/26- Jacksonville; 01/30- Tampa

THREE THINGS TO WATCH IN THE WEEK AHEAD

1/ Europe. Reports from over the weekend show signs of progress
between German and French officials who are meeting to develop a
resolution to the Eurozone debt crisis. Wall Street (and tonight in
Monday trading in Asia) are watching the European developments very
carefully. This has been a top story for several weeks and months, but
things appear to be coming to a head this week.

2/ Occupy Wall Street. 100 protestors were arrested in Chicago over
the weekend as the “Occupy” protest continue in cities across the
country- and even in cities around the world. Watch to see if there is
any organizational growth this week. A Sunday Washington Post story
compared (and found similarities) between Tea Party members and Occupy
protestors- watch to see if other news organizations jump on to that
narrative.

3/ On the campaign trail- without a debate, watch to see how the
candidates are defining themselves as they meet with voters in early
states and get into the weeds with them on policy issues. With Romney,
watch to see how he is connecting with the “average joe” in New
Hampshire- a must-win state for him. And with Perry, watch to see what
kind of specific details are announced in his Tuesday jobs speech- and
if and how the Romney campaign chooses to respond to it.

TOP STORY: The House of Representatives earlier tonight approved three trade agreements- with Colombia, Panama and South Korea. The Senate is currently in session and expected to also approve the free trade agreements by later tonight. The passage of the FTAs marks a rare occurrence in present-day Washington, bi-partisan consensus. The vote on the Colombian deal, the most contentious of the three, was 262-167, including 32 Democrats. Panama was approved 300-129. South Korea was approved by a 278-151 vote. In addition, the House approved an extension of Trade Adjustment Assistance legislation, with about half of the Republican caucus voting for the separate bill. Tomorrow, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak address a joint session of Congress and attends a State Dinner at The White House. Today’s action in Congress is the most significant on trade issues since the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993. 

NEW NBC NEWS/WALL STREET JOURNAL POLL out tonight:

CAIN 27%

ROMNEY 23%

PERRY 16%

PAUL 11%

GINGRICH 8%

BACHMANN 5%

HUNTSMAN 3%

SANTORUM 1%

President Obama Job Approval Rating: 44%, Disapprove: 51%

The surge of Herman Cain to the top of the NBC/WSJ poll, conducted last Thursday through Monday (over the Columbus Day Weekend) is both surprising and clearly short-lived. After Cain’s performance in last night’s New Hampshire Debate, the media is not taking a serious examination of his “9-9-9” economic and tax plan and asking more critical questions.

HEAD TO HEADS:

Obama 46%

Romney 44%

Obama 49%

Cain 38%

Obama 51%

Perry 39%

Obama 44%

Generic Republican 42%

NEW HAMPSHIRE Secretary of State Bill Gardner, who has the sole authority under New Hampshire law to schedule the date of the state’s traditional “First in the Nation” presidential primary, today threatened to hold the primary in December of this year if Nevada does not change the date of their caucuses, currently scheduled for Saturday 01/14/2012. 

From Gardner’s extraordinary statement, “Why New Hampshire’s Primary Tradition is Important”:

DEMOCRACY IS HARD WORK.  Protecting American democracy has been a 

cause of freedom in our nation for over two centuries, and our fellow citizens who 

have gone before us dedicated their lives, and in some cases lost their lives, in that 

fight.  The principles of democracy and freedom are worth every bit of that fight.

For nearly 100 years, the New Hampshire First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary 

has had meaning and relevance to American politics.

NEW HAMSHIRE IS FIRST FOR A REASON

IT’S REALLY UP TO NEVADA.  If Nevada does not accept a date of Tuesday, 

January 17 th or later for its caucus, it leaves New Hampshire  no choice but to 

consider December of this year.  The dates of Tuesday, December 13th and 

Tuesday, December 6th are realistic options, and we have logistics in place to 

make either date happen if needed.

THE NEXT STEPS are not clear. Presumably, there will be negotiations between New Hampshire and Nevada, perhaps coordinated by the national Republican Party. It still seems very unlikely that, despite Gardner’s threats to the contrary, that the New Hampshire Primary will be held this year. the dates he mentioned are nearly (and less than) two months away. 

THE EVENING REPORT predicts that Gardner will eventually relent and schedule his state’s primary on Tuesday January 10th, eight days after Iowa and four days before Nevada. 

IN DETROIT today, the accused “underwear bomber,” Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab pleaded guilty to terrorism charges stemming from the attempted 2009 terrorist attack to bring down a Northwest Airlines plane on Christmas Day. Abdul Muttalab had been acting in his own defense at his trial, which began this week. His guilty plea was an unexpected development.

“I carried with me an explosive device to avenge the killing of innocent Muslims,” Abdul Mutallab said, according to a CNN report, adding that the failed plot was in retaliation for “U.S. tyranny and oppression of Muslims. I am guilty of this by U.S. law, but not in the Koran,” he added. “If you laugh at us now, we will laugh to you later.”

STATEMENT from Attorney General Eric Holder “Contrary to what some have claimed, today’s plea removes any doubt that our courts are one of the most effective tools we have to fight terrorism and keep the American people safe.  Our priority in this case was to ensure that we arrested a man who tried to do us harm, that we collected actionable intelligence from him and that we prosecuted him in a way that was consistent with the rule of law.  We will continue to be aggressive in our fight against terrorism and those who target us, and we will let results, not rhetoric, guide our actions.”

Abdul Muttalab’s most serious of eight charges, attempted use of a weapon of mass destruction, carries a maximum sentence of life in prison. He is expected to be formally sentenced in early January next year. 

WALL STREET TODAY:

Dow up 103

NASDAQ up 21

S&P 500 up 12

IN EUROPE, Slovakian leaders have reached an agreement between the opposition party and the party of the outgoing government (dissolved yesterday in a no-confidence vote) to bring the Eurozone bailout fund back to parliament for a second vote by Friday, when it is expected to pass. Slovakia would then become the 17th and final European Union nation to approve the bailout, setting into motion the next steps in attempts by European leaders to save off a serious debt crisis. 

The Dow is now hovering around the unchanged mark, year to date.

FINALLY…it was a tough day for those who are still using the Blackberry, manufactured by the Canadian company Research in Motion (RIM). An international outage entered its third day today and spread through North America, causing messages, including SMS and the device’s popular Blackberry Messenger (BBM) feature to be delayed. RIM offered periodic updates throughout the day through their Twitter account and on their corporate web site. 

Here’s how the Wall Street Journal reports on the story tonight:

“RIM blamed the outages, affecting customers on at least five continents, on an internal technical glitch—a failed switch and an inoperable backup. But even as the company promised customers a day earlier that it had fixed that problem—and expected customer service to quickly return—disruptions spread.

In a hastily organized conference call with reporters Wednesday afternoon, RIM’s chief technology officer for software, David Yach, said the company didn’t see any signs of hacking or other security breach, but industry analysts didn’t rule out sabotage.

RIM has seen its share price plummet this year—down about 60% since January—as competitors Apple Inc. and Google Inc.’s Android operating system snap up smartphone market share in North America and beyond.”

POST DEBATE EDITION

The Seventh Republican Presidential Candidates Debate just concluded from Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire. Eight candidates shared the stage- and for the first time this election season, sat around what moderator Charlie Rose described as a “kitchen table.” The nearly two-hour debate, sponsored by Bloomberg and The Washington Post- and airing on Bloomberg television but not on a major cable news channel- was the second to be held in New Hampshire this cycle, the state which is expected to play host to the “first in the nation” primary in early January. 

Three takeaways:

1/ Romney is the frontrunner

2/ Cain has a 9-9-9 Problem

3/ Santorum had a good night.

1/ From his poise to his answers. His jokes to his choice of a candidate to address a question of. There was absolutely no doubt that Mitt Romney not only won this debate, but is the Republican presidential frontrunner with a good chance at beating President Obama next November. Romney towered over his opponents at tonight’s debate, deflecting their criticisms with a commanding presence that seemed professorial. He even at one point held his finger in the air and wagged it at Rick Perry, scolding him saying “I’m still talking Rick, I’m still talking.” When it came time to answer a hard question poised by the moderators- if Europe’s looming debt crisis was a threat to the American economy- Romney again played a card from the upper deck, challenging the premise of the question as hypothetical. And late in the debate when it seemed that there wouldn’t be a question specifically about it, he reminded his fellow candidates- as if they needed reminding- of the big political news pre-debate: that he had secured the coveted endorsement of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Yes, Romney is the Republican frontrunner and he handily won tonight’s debate.

2/ What spared Hermain Cain’s rise from third-tier to first-tier candidate in less than a month? His repetition at the six previous debates of his economic plan: 9-9-9. The simplicity of the catchphrase- that Jon Huntsman tonight said first reminded him of a pizza deal- is also Cain’s biggest liability. Huntsman, Bachmann, Gingrich, Santorum, Paul, Perry & Romney (those would be all of the other candidates) took swipes- some specific, some veiled, at the plan tonight. Santorum was the most aggressive- turning to the audience of Granite State residents notorious for their “live free or die” mantra and asking them how many want to see a 9% sales tax. No hands went up. “There’s your evidence, Herman, it’s not going to work,” Santorum said. 

3/ Which leads into the final point of the initial takeaways: Rick Santorum had a good night. Of the third-tier candidates, he was the most animated, even commanding at times. Clearly angered that Herman Cain has become the darling of Tea Party conservatives- a group that he needs in order to place well in January’s Iowa Caucus, Santorum knows that he was to either distinguish himself from Cain or tear him down. And he has decided on the latter. Watch to see how Mitt Romney- who remembers how Santorum joined his pile on of Rick Perry in previous debates- may come to the aide of Rick Santorum in next week’s debate. 

THE LEAD- as it is evolving, in The Washington Post, as of 10:15pm, “The government is the problem. That was the message Tuesday night as the eight Republican presidential hopefuls clamored to blame Washington for the nation’s economic ills. In turn, they pointed fingers at President Obama, the Federal Reserve and the government generally as the cause of the nation’s economic collapse. Together, they were strident in their belief that Obama-era regulations are stunting growth. Yet although the White House aspirants largely agreed on their overall visions, the two candidates whose positions at the top of the field were expected to rise or fall in Tuesday’s Washington Post-Bloomberg News debate at Dartmouth College — Texas Gov. Rick Perry and businessman Herman Cain — were short on policy specifics, even when pressed by the moderators.”

AND IN POLITICO, “The Republican presidential candidates found their target for the evening: Herman Cain and his “9-9-9” tax plan. The former pizza executive has thrilled Republican primary voters with his proposal to toss out the U.S. tax code and replace it with 9 percent taxes on business, income and sales. But now that he’s swiftly rising in the polls, his rivals are clearly hoping to puncture his political balloon.”

THE BACK TIER: Aside from some awkwardly-timed jokes, Jon Huntsman showed he is a candidate who will soon be forgotten in this field. And Rick Perry had another bad night. As we predicted last evening, he did not have nearly as much time as he has in previous debates, but when he did speak, he didn’t seem passionate or knowledgeable- at one point nearly-stuttering and looking around the room as if to say “I don’t know the answer.” Perry showed that his campaign is quickly on the decline. 

THE EVENING REPORT CANDIDATES RANKINGS- who won, and who lost- tonight’s debate:

Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Jon Huntsman

IN OTHER NEWS

It was a very busy news Tuesday. Here are the other top stories of this day:

ISRAEL PRISONER SWAP IMMINENT 

The Israeli Cabinet- meeting in emergency session today- agreed to a prisoner swap that will allow Sgt. Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier who has been held by the Palestinian group Hamas since 2006 to be released.

From the New York Times, “Israel and Hamas announced an agreement on Tuesday to exchange more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners for an Israeli soldier held captive in Gaza for five years, a deal brokered by Egypt that seemed likely to shake up Middle East politics at a time when the region is immersed in turmoil.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel told his nation in a live address on television that the soldier, Staff Sgt. Gilad Shalit, who was  captured in June 2006 at the age of 19, could be home “within days,” ending what has been widely seen in Israel as a national trauma.It was unclear what drove the two to accept a deal that had been on the table for years. But both stand to benefit politically and had reasons to distract attention from the efforts of Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, as he circles the globe seeking votes for his bid to gain United Nations membership for a state of Palestine.”

IRANIAN-LINKED TERROR PLOT UNRAVELED

Attorney General Eric Holder announced today that a FBI sting operation has uncovered and unraveled a significant plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the United States, with links to both Iran and Mexico. 

From Reuters, “U.S. authorities said they had broken up a plot by two men linked to Iran’s security agencies to assassinate Saudi Ambassador Adel al-Jubeir. One was arrested last month while the other was believed to be in Iran. Iran denied the charges. But President Barack Obama called the plot a “flagrant violation of U.S. and international law” and Saudi Arabia said it was “despicable.” U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder alleged that the plot was the work of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is the guardian of Iran’s 32-year-old revolution, and the Quds force, its covert, operational arm. “High-up officials in those (Iranian) agencies, which is an integral part of the Iranian government, were responsible for this plot,” Holder told the news conference. “I think one has to be concerned about the chilling nature of what the Iranian government attempted to do here,” he said

SLOVAKIA REJECTS EUROZONE BAILOUT FUND

This afternoon the Slovakian Parliament rejected, by 21 votes, the Eurozone bailout fund proposal. Slovakia is the 17th and final country whose approval is necessary for the measure to be ratified and its defeat sends into chaos the current efforts to save the European financial system from collapse. However, a second vote is expected in the Parliament within days and is expected to pass. Today’s measure also included a vote of no confidence against the sitting Slovak coalition government. 

From the BBC, “The governing coalition had linked the vote to a confidence motion and as a result has effectively been toppled. Slovakia is the last of the eurozone’s 17 members to vote on expanding the European Financial Stability Facility. However, the BBC’s Rob Cameron says a second vote could be held soon and is likely to succeed. The measure failed to pass by 21 votes, but that result had been anticipated after a junior party in the centre-right coalition said it would abstain. The Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) party said it was opposed to Slovakia’s taxpayers being asked to cover the debts of richer countries. Many Slovaks feel their country - the second poorest in the eurozone - should not have to bail out countries like Greece.”

WALL STREET TODAY

Dow down 17

NASDAQ up 17

S&P 500 up 1

SENATE 

The Senate tonight, in a procedural vote, defeated President Obama’s jobs plan, in a complete bill form, failing to reach the 60 votes necessary to bring the bill to a vote. The President, campaigning in Orlando after touring a manufacturing plant in Pittsburgh and receiving an interim report from his Jobs and Competitiveness Council today, released a statement saying that tonight’s vote was only the beginning of his efforts to get Congress to pass the American Jobs Act.

From The Hill, “In the run-up to the vote, Obama’s political advisers portrayed it as a black-and-white partisan fight between a president trying to address the nation’s high unemployment rate and Senate Republican leaders more interested in partisan politics than the national good. “Their strategy is to suffocate the economy for the sake of what they think will be a political victory,” Jim Messina, campaign manager of Obama for America, wrote in an email to supporters. “They think that the more folks see Washington taking no action to create jobs, the better their chances in the next election. So they’re doing everything in their power to make sure nothing gets done.” [But] Centrist Democrats undercut that narrative by speaking out against Obama’s plan, even though they voted to debate it.”

Happy Columbus Day!

NEW GALLUP POLL out today (with changes from last month’s Gallup survey): 

Mitt Romney 20% (-4%)

Herman Cain 18% (+13%)

Rick Perry 15% (-16%)

Ron Paul 8% (-5%)

Newt Gingrich 7% (+2%)

Michele Bachmann 5% (-)

Rick Santorum 3% (+1%)

Huntsman 2% (+1%)

Undecided 20% (+10%)

MORE POLLS later in the Report. 

Tomorrow in Hanover, New Hampshire, the Republican presidential candidates share the same stage once again for the seventh debate of the election season, and the first since September 22nd. It will be the second debate in the state of New Hampshire- which is expected to play host to the “first in the nation” primary next January. The last New Hampshire debate, on June 13th, was when Rep. Michele Bachmann announced her candidacy. 

Ahead of the debate, many of the top candidates were campaigning in New Hampshire today. The Nashua Telegraph tops its political coverage tonight by making note of Bachmann’s seeming absence from the state since announcing her candidacy, with the headline, “Bachmann back in NH after four-month absence” <http://bit.ly/pCK2cz>

Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who did not participate in June’s New Hampshire debate, gave what his campaign described as a “major foreign policy speech” today, which his campaign tried to present as a contrast to frontrunner Mitt Romney’s Friday foreign policy speech in South Carolina. From his prepared remarks, Huntsman said- in trying to build that contrast-, “A reexamination of America’s role in the world also requires a reexamination of our military and defense infrastructure…We still have remnants of a top-heavy, post-Cold War infrastructure. It needs to be transformed to reflect the 21st Century world, and the growing asymmetric threats we face.” The news of Huntsman’s speech, however, may be the more hawkish tone he took towards Iran, saying, “I cannot live with a nuclear-armed Iran. If you want an example of when I would use American force, it would be that.”

Despite Romney & Huntsman attempting to interject foreign policy into the race- it is unlikely that it will bump the economy from the key issue determining the election.

And it is in that light that Romney today tried to position himself as aligned with the surging campaign of businessman Herman Cain, telling a town hall meeting in New Hampshire tonight, “We each have our own experiences, he’s [Cain’s] a great guy. Vote for either one of us and you’ll be happy.”

HARVARD UNIVERSITY/ST ANSLEM COLLGE POLL out today:

Romney 38%

Cain 20%

Paul 13%

Gingrich 5%

Perry 4%

Huntsman 4%

Bachmann 3%

Santorum 1%

Johnson 1%

Former New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg- who THE EVENING REPORT saw walking on Eye Street last week- today announced his endorsement of Mitt Romney

In a further sign that her campaign is losing traction- and money- the Bachmann campaign over the weekend announced they were closing their Virginia headquarters and moving all of their resources to Iowa. They now consider the January 3rd caucuses as make-or-break [probably a strong finish in the top 3]

Rick Perry has a new 60-second web ad up today, “Romney’s Remedy” which is a must-watch if only for the theatrical contrast the ad draws between Romney and President Obama. Watch the scene when Barack Obama is looking into the mirror and the face of Mitt Romney appears and then Obama saying, “I agree with Mitt Romney…he’s right.” It finishes with Romney’s quote from the 9/22 debate “there are a lot of reasons not to elect me” and, once again, Obama saying “he’s right.” The ad: <http://youtu.be/LfcOGWRfXdk>

THREE THINGS TO WATCH in tomorrow night’s debate (7pm, sponsored by The Washington Post and Bloomberg and presented by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation)

1/ September’s debates were about Romney v Perry. With Perry’s enthusiasm fading for the moment (his fundraising numbers for the 3rd Quarter indicate he has a strong finance apparatus and evolving organization that Cain, for example, does not have), watch to see if Romney identifies another candidate on stage as a threat, or returns to the position he held for most of the early summer, of sitting back while the second and third-tier candidates fight it out.

2/ As important as watching Romney’s strategy- watch Perry’s as well. The Texas Governor will likely not have as much time as he was allowed in previous debates to answer questions as the attention will be on Romney, Cain and other candidates. Perry has also developed a reputation as a poor debater. He comes into the debate with his performance bar set extremely low. A strong showing- solid answers on questions he previously waffled on- could go a long way to regaining the enthusiasm and attention that accompanied his introduction to the campaign. Put another way- it’s not going to take a lot to turn Perry around

3/ The third-tier. In previous debates, Rick Santorum aligned himself with Mitt Romeny in the pile-on of Rick Perry. And to some extent, so did Michele Bachmann. With Perry no longer a second-place candidate, watch to see where these candidates turn. Specifically, Santorum has the most to gain- as a candidate who is in a large need of a second-look in order to revive his campaign. He is hoping that the Tea Party’s enthusiasm wave that began back in April with Donald Trump- then elevated Michele Bachmann’s candidacy to win the Iowa Caucuses in August, then brought Rick Perry to near front-runner status in September and has now elevated the candidacy of Herman Cain, will next turn to him as he targets a strong showing in January’s Iowa Caucus. 

ANOTHER POLL…from Washington Post/Bloomberg and released today:

Romney 24%

Cain 16%

Perry 13%

Paul 6%

Bachmann 4%

Gingrich 3% 

Santorum 1%

Huntsman 0%

IN OTHER NEWS:

Malta today became the 16th European nation to approve a EuroZone bailout fund first negotiated in July. Just one country- Slovakia- remains in order for the fund to be ratified. Negotiations in the Slovak parliament are continuing on Tuesday. In the end, an agreement is expected to be reached. The reality is, however, that the fund as is now close to being approved does not come close to the amount now known to be needed, but, as the BBC reports, “French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel pledged on Sunday to do what it takes to protect European banks from the debt crisis. The leaders said they were close to a detailed package to ease the crisis and would give further details within weeks.” Meanwhile, a key European Union meeting that was anticipated to occur this week was postponed until at least next week as Merkel and Sarkozy continue negotiations. 

That news was enough to send WALL STREET significantly higher on a light day of holiday trading:

DOW up 330

Nasdaq up 87

S&P 500 up 39

Two American economists, Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims were awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics “for their empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy” the Nobel Committee announced today. Sargent is a professor at New York University and Sims a professor at Princeton.

TECH NEWS:

NETFLIX reversed course and announced today that they were completely abandoning plans announced last month to split their company into two, separating online video streaming from DVD-by-mail. From Netflix CEO Reed Hastings in a blog post this morning, “It is clear that for many of our members two websites would make things more difficult, so we are going to keep Netflix as one place to go for streaming and DVDs. This means no change: one website, one account, one password… in other words, no Qwikster. While the July price change was necessary, we are now done with price changes.” 

FACEBOOK announced today its long-awaited iPad App. From Facebook Software Engineer Leon Dubinsky in a blog post this afternoon, “With the iPad app, you get the full Facebook experience, right at your fingertips. It’s a fun way to keep up with friends, share photos, chat and more.” Features include finger scroll, larger photo display, easier navigation and more features. 

APPLE says pre-orders for the iPhone 4S have broken the company’s previous single-day sales record. Over 1 million orders were placed in the first 24 hours, the company says. Both Sprint and AT&T say that they have sold out of the iPhone 4S for now and Verizon says that it will ship phones beginning on October 20th, according to the reports. 

THREE THINGS TO WATCH THIS WEEK:

1/ In Congress, watch to see how quickly the House and Senate can ratify the three trade agreements formally submitted by the White House last week. These agreements, for Panama, Colombia and South Korea, were first negotiated in 2007 but finalized earlier this month. They now face near-certain passage this week and, in the case of South Korea, it will be a welcome gift for President Lee Myung-bak who comes to Washington at the end of this week for a formal State Visit. Lee will address a joint session of Congress on Thursday and travel with President Obama on Friday to Detroit, Michigan. A State Dinner will be held Thursday night.

2/ In the Middle East, watch developments in Syria, Egypt and Libya- three countries at the heart of the Arab Spring (or as NBC’s Chief International Correspondent Richard Engel described last week, the “Arab Awakening”) which saw new violence and instability over the weekend. At least 31 people were killed in violence in Syria on Sunday, prompting the White House to release a statement condemning the killings. Today, President Obama conferred with European leaders on the situation. In Egypt, sectarian violence- reportedly the worse since the overthrow of the Mubarak government- are threatening upcoming initial elections. And in Libya, rebel forces continue their advance and assault of one of the last Gadaffi-government strongholds, Surt.

3/ Back to politics. Watch as campaigns at all levels release their third quarter finance and disclosure reports this week. Of course, watch tomorrow night’s debate for the positioning of the Republican presidential race. The candidates will meet again next Tuesday night, 10/18, for their eighth debate, across the country in Las Vegas.

Tomorrow in THE EVENING REPORT, we’ll provide a full recap of the New Hampshire debate