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5 Days To Go…Gingrich Wins Tonight’s Debate…Romney Under Attack…Santorum Steals the Show…Ron Paul Stumbles..Is it a Game Changer?…The Evening Report for Monday January 16, 2012

5 DAYS UNTIL THE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY (25 delegates)
8 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
15 DAYS UNTIL THE FLORIDA PRIMARY (50 delegates)

POST-DEBATE EDITION

TONIGHT…from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina…the 16th Republican Presidential Candidates Debate.

And it was fight night in Myrtle Beach.

Four of the five remaining candidates recognized that they have four hours over two of the next four nights to knock off the front-runner before he makes it 3 for 3 in the early primary states.

From POLITICO’s Alexander Burns, “South Carolina GOP debate: Mitt Romney pressed on Bain, tax returns”

“While Romney stayed focused on a tightly controlled and almost entirely familiar message, there were a few rare moments when the former Massachusetts governor appeared to stammer and grasp for balance.

And after weeks of declining to promise to release his tax returns, Romney relented — mostly — under persistent questioning from moderators.

“In history, people have released them around April of the coming year and that’s probably what I’ll do,” Romney conceded.

Among Romney’s opponents, Newt Gingrich was first to start the pile-on, accusing Romney and his former private equity firm, Bain Capital, of having acquired companies, “leaving them with enormous debt and then within a year or two or three, having them go broke.”

THE DEBATE WAS FIERCE

Romney responding to Gingrich’s attacks on his Super PACs “If we’re talking about super PAC ads that are inaccurate, Mr. Speaker, you have a super PAC ad that attacks me. It’s probably the biggest hoax since Bigfoot. The people who’ve looked at it said it was entirely false…somehow for you …to suggest I have different standards here is not quite right.”

Romney answering a question about the last time he went hunting “I’m not going to describe all of my great exploits,” Romney began, “but I went moose-hunting —- went elk-hunting with friends in Montana.”

Newt Gingrich responding to Ron Paul’s comparison of Al-Qaeda terrorists (including Osama bin Laden) to Chinese dissidents: “He’s not a Chinese dissident. The analogy that Congressman Paul used was utterly irrational. A Chinese dissident who comes here seeking freedom is not the same as a terrorist who comes to Pakistan seeking asylum.”

Ron Paul invoking MLK: “Martin Luther King would be in agreement with me on the wars as well, I’m the only Republican who favors total withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan He was a strong opponent of the Vietnam War.”

Ron Paul on building the US Embassy in Iraq “You consider that defense spending - I consider that waste.”

SANTORUM’S BIG MOMENT IN THE DEBATE- from POLITICO’s Maggie Haberman

“Rick Santorum seized control of the Fox News/Wall Street Journal debate about 20 minutes in Monday night, interrogating Mitt Romney with a series of questions about his position on voting rights for felons – and attack ads a pro-Romney super PAC is airing against Santorum.

Santorum noted that Restore Our Future, the pro-Romney group, ran ads implying the Pennsylvanian wanted to let felons vote from prison.

In fact, Santorum said, he wanted to give voting rights to people who had already paid their debt to society.

“I would ask Gov. Romney,” Santorum said, “do you believe people who are felons who have served their time, who have exhausted their parole and probation, should they be given the right to vote?

When Romney began with a few words about the rules governing super PACs and non-coordination, Santorum cut in to demand an answer to his question.

“That’s how you got the time. It’s actually my time,” Santorum said, adding of the voting rights issue: “This is Martin Luther King Day, this is a huge deal in the African-American community.”

Romney responded in a level tone: “I don’t think people who committed violent crimes should be allowed to vote again.”

And that’s when it became clear that Santorum had set a trap.

“In the state of Massachusetts, when you were governor, the law was not only can violent felons vote,” Santorum said, but they can vote when on parole or probation – a “more liberal position” than Santorum ever supported.

“If in fact you felt so passionately about this,” Santorum asked, “then why didn’t you try to change that when you were governor of Massachusetts?”

Romney shot back that he had to contend with an 85 percent Democratic legislature and that, by the way, he didn’t order a super PAC hit on Santorum because that would be illegal.”

FIRST THOUGHTS:

This was not a good debate for Romney who was off his game tonight. He should be considering these debates as practice for the general election cycle and he missed an opportunity to respond with crisp convincing answers to a whole host of questions tonight

Newt Gingrich did very well tonight in his role as attack dog and conservative cheerleader. The question now is if its enough to carry him to a close 2nd place or an upset victory in Saturday’s primary. And with polls released this weekend showing Romney running away with the lead in the state, that is not looking likely.

Ron Paul had his worst debate and seemed to be stumbling over his answers when he finally had an opportunity to answer the moderator’s questions.

The audience for tonight’s debate was wild. The Myrtle Beach Convention Center hall was packed and they were animated..frequently booing candidates up and down the stage..and moderators too.

It’s too early to say if tonight’s debate changed the dynamics of the South Carolina race. It may be too little too late for the anybody but Romney candidates. Or the Republican primary, which seemed late last week to be all but over, could be taking one more, final, crazy turn.

The next debate is Thursday night at the Citadel.

9 Days To Go…Conservatives Back Off Romney Attacks…Perry Loses Vulture Capitalism…But Gingirch Web Video Compares Romney to Kerry…Giuliani Attacks Gingrich…and Stephen Colbert Wants To Run…The Evening Report for Thursday January 12, 2012

9 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
12 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
19 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

MINDMELD: Today was one of those days in the election when there wasn’t one action that happened, or moment that occurred, but rather there was an amalgamation of forces that revealed a shifting dynamic in the race.

We hinted at it at the end of last night’s Report. There began, yesterday, to be pushback from many establishment Republicans about the primary attacks against Mitt Romney and his record at Bain Capital.

Those attacks, from Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman, had threatened to consume the Republican primary for the next 9 days in South Carolina, and Florida at the end of the month and possibly even prolonging a contested primary season through the spring.

Today, that pushback continued and even as new polls showed a competitive race in South Carolina, there were clear signs that the Republican Party may be moving to clear the deck and ready to appoint their nominee to face President Obama from now until the fall. 

GOP DIVIDED OVER POTENTIAL IMPACT OF BAIN ATTACKS- The Washington Post- Amy Gardner in Greer, SC- 

“Republican voters at campaign events for Romney and other candidates Thursday said they were unmoved by the arguments against Romney’s time at Bain, a venture capital company that several of Romney’s rivals have blamed for bankrupting companies and laying off thousands of workers. Most damning has been an ad campaign paid for by a group backing Newt Gingrich, featuring interviews with workers claiming to have been laid off by Bain.

On Wednesday, Perry called Romney a “vulture capitalist” — a phrase that he did not repeat on Thursday.

Romney’s rivals seemed to vacillate between continuing to criticize Romney over Bain and easing up in the face of growing pressure to do so. Gingrich, whose critiques have been the harshest of any, rarely mentioned Romney by name Thursday, sticking instead to a more general “big guy vs. little guy” theme.

Huntsman aimed his attack Thursday on a line Romney uttered Monday about firing people, rather than directly hitting him over Bain. “When you have a candidate who talks about enjoyment of firing people, that makes you pretty much unelectable,” he said.

Several Republican strategists said the verdict is still not in on how damaging the Bain narrative will be for Romney, whose wins in New Hampshire and Iowa earlier this month have cemented his position as the front-runner of the Republican field.”

NEWT WEB AD COMPARES MITT TO DUKASIS & KERRY- includes clips of both Sen. Kerry and Gov. Romney speaking French. As you watch this ad, remind yourself that it is a Republican that produced it 

GINGRICH will be interviewed by NBC’s David Gregory this Sunday on Meet The Press

GINGRICH’S SUPER PAC, WINNING OUR FUTURE, IS UP WITH WWW.KINGOFBAIN.COM.Here’s some of the text. And it’s hard hitting.

“Mitt Romney.   

Was he a job creator or a corporate raider?

That’s the question this film answers.

And it’s not pretty.

Mitt Romney was not a capitalist during his reign at Bain. He was a predatory corporate raider.

His firm didn’t seek to create value. Instead, like a scavenger, Romney looked for businesses he could pick apart.

Indeed, he represented the worst possible kind of predator, operating within the law but well outside the bounds of what most real capitalists consider ethical.

He is exhibit number one the left wants to use in the coming election to give capitalism a bad name.

He and his friends at Bain were bad guys. Any real capitalists should disavow Romney’s ‘creative destruction’ model that made him wealthy at the expense of thousands of American jobs.”

TOP TALKER- John McCain rips into Mike Huckabee, reliving the end of the 2008 Republican Primary 

“I respect him, but that’s totally false. It’s totally, patently false. And for him to say something like that, maybe it makes him feel better. … All I can say to Gov. Huckabee is good luck on your programming on Fox, but you’re not telling the truth.”

TOP TALKER II- Laura Bush today to the Sarasota Herald-Tribune:

“Former first lady Laura Bush wishes there were one more candidate in the Republican presidential primary: Jeb Bush.

Speaking to a sold-out Sarasota audience on Wednesday, Bush said she had hoped that her brother-in-law and former Florida governor would have jumped into the race this year.

Husband George W. Bush “and I wish he would,” Laura Bush said when asked if Jeb Bush will run for president someday. “We wanted him to this time.”

TOP TALKER III- Rudy Giuliani on Fox & Friends this morning- calling out Gingrich and Perry for their attacks on Romney “What the hell are you doing, Newt?” he asked

THE LATEST SOUTH CAROLINA POLLING FROM INSIDER ADVANTAGE: ROMNEY +2

  • Romney 23%
  • Gingrich 21%
  • Santorum 14%
  • Paul 13%
  • Huntsman 7%
  • Perry 5%

LATEST GALLUP TRACKING POLL FOR GOP NOMINATION NATIONALLY: ROMNEY +19

  • Romney 34%
  • Santorum 15%
  • Gingrich 14%
  • Paul 13%
  • Perry 5%
  • Huntsman 2%

WALL STREET FROM CNBC- Stocks End Higher, Nasdaq Logs 6-Day Gain

  • DOW up 22
  • NASDAQ up 14
  • S&P 500 up 3

FINALLY…TAKE THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT, BUT STEPHEN COLBERT WANTS TO RUN IN SOUTH CAROLINA

From POLITICO’s Mike Allen [a guest on this evening’s Colbert Report]

“I am proud to announce that I am forming an exploratory committee to lay the groundwork for my possible candidacy for president of the United States of America of South Carolina,” Colbert said during the Thursday evening show, several hours before airtime on Comedy Central.

“This is a difficult decision. I’ve talked it over with my money. I’ve talked it over with my spiritual adviser.”

Trevor Potter, the former Federal Election Commission chairman, acts as Colbert’s lawyer and was a guest on the show. “

You cannot be a candidate and run a super PAC,” Potter said. “That would be coordinating with yourself.”
Colbert’s super PAC is Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow. His 501(c)4 is the Colbert Super PAC SHH [as in “shh”] Institute.

The stunt was part of Colbert’s continuing effort to expose what he considers absurdities in U.S. election law.

2 Days To Go…After Two Debates, NH is Romney’s To Lose…Newt’s PAC goes after Mitt…Huntsman Shining…Giffords Shooting Anniversary…Blue Ivy is Born….And TIM TEBOW…The Evening Report for Sunday January 08, 2012

2 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
13 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
16 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
23 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

THE LATEST FROM NEW HAMPSHIRE- home of two debateswithin 12 hours this weekend and now less than 48 hours from the first in the nation presidential preference primary-

“Romney Under Attack in in Final NH Debate”- The Washington Post- Karen Tumulty and Amy Gardner- in Concord-

“The unusual morning debate was the 15th of the campaign season — and the second in 10 hours — for the candidates. It was sponsored by NBC News, the New Hampshire Union Leader and Facebook.

In the previous night’s forum, which was aired on ABC, Romney’s opponents had landed few blows on the front-runner.

Romney, initially rattled under the Sunday morning barrage, tried to defend himself — but at times seemed to fuel some of the most damaging perceptions about him.

For instance, he reminded viewers of his background of wealth and privilege when he recounted a bit of “good advice” that his father, a wealthy auto executive who later became governor of Michigan, gave him.

“He said, ‘Mitt, never get involved in politics if you have to win an election to pay a mortgage,’ ” Romney recalled, in a remark that could also be interpreted as a suggestion that only the wealthy should run for office.

And even as his opponents were blasting Romney as being insufficiently committed to the conservative fight, he recounted how, when he had run against Kennedy, he had told his business partners: “I’ll be back in six months. Don’t take my chair.” He also boasted that Kennedy “had to take a mortgage out on his house to ultimately defeat me.”

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM: Romney is expected to win, by a significant margin, Tuesday’s primary. Anything short of a 15 to 20 plus point win will be interpreted as a sign of potential weakness. With such strong expectations, there is an opening for the candidates vying for the second tier to make a run and threaten Romney’s standing. A strong second place could be akin to a victory. That said, the race for 2-5 is much more fluid, with Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman- and possibly Newt Gingrich- possible contenders for any slot.

FOR HUNTSMAN, NEW HAMPSHIRE IS DO OR DIE- the Post’s Sandhya Somashekhar and Nia-Malika Henderson report from Concord-

“Huntsman went for broke here, skipping Iowa and spending virtually the entire campaign in a state that seemed more receptive to his moderate views. For months, he has been trundling from town to town in New Hampshire wearing a silver belt buckle and cowboy boots, delivering mild-mannered critiques of the president and occasionally breaking into his fluent Chinese.

In the final sprint, Huntsman has gained some momentum and is aiming to draw votes from Mitt Romney, the front-runner and candidate with whom Huntsman shares the most ground ideologically.

In a debate Sunday, the former Utah governor drew applause when he chided Romney for criticizing his willingness to serve as ambassador to China under President Obama. “This nation is divided . . . because of attitudes like that,” Huntsman said.

He sounded the same theme a few hours later, when about 250 people packed into a Hampstead coffee shop to hear the Republican hopeful’s stump speech. “I put my country first,” he said. “Apparently, Mitt Romney doesn’t believe in putting country first.”

HUNTSMAN HAD HIS STRONGEST PERFORMANCES TO DATE in the New Hampshire debates this weekend, but it remains to be seen if that is enough to translate into enough votes on Tuesday.

FROM THIS MORNING’S NBC NEWS/FACEBOOK DEBATE ON MEET THE PRESS WITH DAVID GREGORY- as reported by the Huffington Post’s Jon Ward

“I was criticized last night by Gov. Romney for putting my country first,” Huntsman said. “He criticized me while he was out raising money, for serving my country in China, yes under a Democrat, like my two sons are doing in the United States Navy. They’re not asking what political affiliation the president is.”

“I will always put my country first and I think that’s important,” Huntsman said.

Romney essentially doubled down on his assertion that serving as an ambassador under a president of the opposite political party is an unworthy undertaking.

“I think we serve our country first by standing for people who believe in conservative principles and doing everything in our power to promote an agenda that does not include President Obama’s agenda,” Romney said. “The decision to go to work for President Obama is one which you took, and I don’t — I respect your decision to do that. I just think it’s most likely that the person who should represent our party running against President Obama is not someone who called him a remarkable leader and went to be his ambassador in China.”

Huntsman shot back immediately: “This nation is divided because of attitudes like that.”

The crowd applauded Huntsman’s retort. He went on to say that “the American people are tired of the partisan division.”

“They have had enough. There is no trust left among the American people and the institutions of power and among the American people and their elected officials,” Huntsman said.

SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY/NEWS 7 NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL finds Romney with a 15-point lead, however, that is down 8 points from an earlier tracking poll last week

  • Romney 35%
  • Paul 20%
  • Huntsman 11%
  • Gingrich 9%
  • Santorum 8%
  • Perry 1%

NEW KOTECKI VIDEO THIS WEEKEND- A MUST- WATCH- Political analyst & video blogger James Kotecki released a new video this weekend- a parody of Taylor Swift’s “You Belong With Me”- “You Should Vote Romney” 

It’s one of Kotecki’s best videos to date. Make sure you check it out! 

POLITICO’S TOP STORY TONIGHT- “New Hampshire Primary: The Land of Make-Believe”- BY MIKE ALLEN AND JONATHAN MARTIN-

“The trappings are here: debates … diner stops … satellite trucks.

But the contest isn’t: Mitt Romney is holding onto his apparently huge lead over rivals in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, and is looking so strong going into South Carolina’s primary two weeks from now that his advisers privately talk up hopes for a 3-0 sweep of the opening contests - and a quick kill to win.

Maybe that’s why things seem so sleepy here compared to years past. The airwaves are surprisingly free of the nastiness that would normally accompany a six-way primary fight. Local officials complain of lower-than-hoped-for spending everywhere. The whole political circus surrounding the first-in-the-nation primary is taking on an increasing air of make-believe, as journalists converge (though in noticeably fewer numbers than in 2008) to cover a contest with a thoroughly predictable victor.”

QUOTE OF THE DAY- “I know what its like to worry about whether you’re going to get fired. There were a couple of times I wondered whether I was gonna get a pink slip.”- Mitt Romney speaking at a campaign event following this morning’s debate.

If not used by his current Republican rivals, quotes like this will be used by the Obama campaign in the forthcoming general election contest to paint Romney as elite and out of touch.

COMING ATTRACTION- from POLITICO’s James Hohmann- reporting tonight that the Ron Paul campaign will not openly contest the Florida Primary on January 31st and instead will focus their attention on caucus states later in the calendar, especially Louisiana, Nevada and Maine. Watch for Paul to use these contests to rake up delegates, and possibly victories.

WINNING OUR FUTURE- The Super PAC aligned with Newt Gingrich- today released a 3-minute trailer for a forthcoming half hour documentary which is mean to expose Mitt Romney as an corporate raider.

Just this preview is stunning, especially when you consider that it is coming from a fellow Republican candidate. It is Swift Boat-like in its approach. This is also something that might be captured by Super PACs aligned with President Obama and the Democratic Party in a general election. 

FIVE THINGS TO WATCH FOR IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY- from National Journal’s Ron Fournier-

“In the final days leading up to the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, look for …

1. … Jon Huntsman, who posted his strongest debate performance to date on Sunday, to gain ground in the polls. Every vote he picks up will come from Mitt Romney.

2. … Romney to unleash his rumored organizational power for huge closing rallies. If not, you’ve got to wonder why. His New Hampshire crowds were lame until he drew close to 1,000 Saturday morning. Sign of things to come?

3. … Rick Santorum to regret taking the gay-marriage bait in New Hampshire. It killed his Iowa momentum because New Hampshire Republicans are more concerned about the economy than polarizing social issues.

4. … Newt Gingrich to get cranky with the media and Ron Paul, who’s now in second place in polls, to flirt with third.

5. … Rick Perry to talk up the tea party in South Carolina and act like New Hampshire doesn’t mean anything, But it does: He seems to be taking the long way home to Texas (and out of the race).”

TODAY IS THE ONE YEAR ANNIVERSARY of the shooting of Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords in Tucson, Arizona.
Tonight, the recovering Congresswoman led a crowd of thousands at a prayer vigil. CNN reports-

“Soon after the event began, the Arizona Democrat took the stage to lead the crowd in the pledge of allegiance. After receiving help from her husband, Mark Kelly, to put her right hand above her heart, Giffords enthusiastically recited the pledge, her voice strong and demeanor positive, before leaving the stage to applause.

Earlier in the day, the congresswoman’s chief of staff, Pia Carusone, admitted that the attack’s anniversary has been “difficult emotionally for everybody.” So, too, did Giffords’ husband, who also made a point to thank those who have supported his wife and others affected.

“It’s been a tough year, but we’re lucky to have so many people standing w/us,” Kelly, a retired Navy captain and astronaut, wrote on his Twitter account.”

AT THE BOX OFFICE THIS WEEKEND

1/ The Devil Inside $34.5 million
2/ Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol $20.5 million
3/ Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows $14 million
4/ The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo  $11.3 million
5/ Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked $9.5 million

BEYONCE AND JAY-Z HAVE A BABY- NAME IT BLUE IVY- From TMZ (who else?)

“Proud dad Jay-Z, real name Shawn Carter, was at the hospital where Beyonce reportedly birthed Ivy by c-section — and shortly after her arrival … J & B’s famous friends started sending out birth announcements on the Internet.

Rihanna tweeted, “Welcome to the world princess Carter! Love Aunty Rih”

Hip-hop mogul Russell Simmons also took to Twitter, saying … “congrats to my good friends Beyonce and Jay-Z.”

Beyonce famously announced her pregnancy on stage at the MTV Video Music Awards back in August.”

AND/BUT THEY’RE CAUSING A RUCUS AT THE NEW YORK HOSPITAL- Also from TMZ:

“A Brooklyn man claims increased security at Lenox Hill hospital because the presence of Beyonce and Jay-Z kept him from seeing his prematurely born twins … this according to a report.

Neil Coulon tells the NY Daily News he has been repeatedly kept out of the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) by the couple’s security. He also claims his relatives were booted out of the waiting room by bodyguards wearing headsets.

He tells the paper, “Three times they stopped me from entering or exiting the NICU and it happened once on Friday — just because they wanted to use the hallway.”

FINALLY- TIM TEBOW DOES IT AGAIN- ESPN- “TEBOW STUNS STEELERS ON FIRST OVERTIME PLAY”

“DENVER — One of the most storied NFL playoff teams ran into a rejuvenated Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos.

Sorry, Pittsburgh Steelers.
The magic is back.

Tebow connected with Demaryius Thomas on an electrifying 80-yard touchdown pass on the first play of overtime and the Broncos defeated the stunned Steelers 29-23 in the AFC wild-card game on Sunday. Wild doesn’t begin to describe it. The play took 11 seconds and was the quickest ending to an overtime in NFL history.

Thomas hauled in a high play-action pass at the Denver 38, stiff-armed Ike Taylor and then outraced Ryan Mundy to the end zone. Tebow, who looked as startled as everyone else, chased down Thomas and knelt on one knee — a gesture known far and wide these days as Tebowing. Then he pounded a fist in triumph and took a victory lap.

“When I saw him scoring, first of all, I just thought, `Thank you, Lord,” Tebow said. “Then, I was running pretty fast, chasing him — Like I can catch up to D.T! Then I just jumped into the stands, first time I’ve done that. That was fun. Then, got on a knee and thanked the Lord again and tried to celebrate with my teammates and the fans.”

Prodded by John Elway to let the ball fly, Tebow acted as if the last three weeks never happened, lifting the Broncos to their first playoff win in six years.”

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This Evening: 3-way Tie 5 Days Before Iowa, Romney’s Closing Argument, Huntsman v. Paul, Bachmann’s Fall. Romney’s Rise. The Evening Report for Thursday December 29

5 DAYS UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
12 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
23 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

CAMPAIGN RESET- from The Washington Post’s Dan Balz in Ames- “Romney prepares aggressive Iowa finish”

“Romney is far from a clear favorite in Iowa: Rep. Ron Paul of Texas continues to show strength in the polls and is banking on a well-regarded organization, and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum is on the rise. But no campaign can match Romney’s for the breadth and depth of its infrastructure, and for the first time the weapons he can deploy are all on display.

For months, Romney’s campaign in Iowa appeared to be moving in slow motion, but it has suddenly taken on a new intensity and some Republican ­strategists say the former Massachusetts governor is building his Iowa momentum at just the right moment.

The volatile political landscape in Iowa underwent its latest jolts in the past 36 hours, scrambling the fortunes of several candidates — most notably Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Paul — and left Romney in his most favorable position in Iowa so far.

But increasingly, the focus of the race is Romney and his potential to win Tuesday. He is drawing energy from boisterous crowds, some of whose participants said in interviews that they had only recently come around to Romney because he seems like the party’s best bet to beat President Obama.

Romney asked Iowa voters Thursday to weigh their choices carefully. “I hope as you look at the people running you can measure their capacity to lead effectively and you can also determine whether they can become our nominee and defeat President Obama,” Romney told 400 supporters in Mason City. “I think I can.”

LEADING DESMOINESREGISTER.COM TONIGHT: ”Almost Bowl Time for ISU, UI”

THEIR OTHER TOP STORY- “Des Moines police arrest 12 protesters at Democratic headquarters”- as #OccupyTheCaucuses come to Iowa

“Twelve protesters have been arrested at the Iowa Democratic headquarters this afternoon, as they protested that Guantanamo remained open and corporate donations to campaigns.

As arrests were going on, other protesters with the Occupy the Caucuses movement chanted, “Hey, hey, ho, ho, Obama close Guantanamo.”

Among those arrested was Frankie Hughes, 14, who earlier today told a Register reporter that she gets good grades.

More than two dozen protesters were at the Democratic headquarters, the fourth Des Moines-area site in two days that protesters have demonstrated at.”

NEXT WEEK’S BIG STORY TONIGHT- “Michele Bachmann’s hard fall”- by POLITICO’s Maggie Haberman

“But as the race wraps up, the woman who was on a trajectory to become the first-ever female winner of the Iowa caucuses is fighting to avoid finishing dead last in the state where she was raised.

To underscore her troubles, Bachmann has spent the last 24 hours trying to spin the fallout from her Iowa state campaign chairman’s defection to the Ron Paul camp — insisting repeatedly that the man in question took a payoff to make the switch. Another longtime staffer, who went public to defend the departed chairman, was gone from the campaign by late Thursday.

All that seems certain, amid a fractured evangelical base and the latest polling data, is that the low-on-cash Bachmann rates as an extreme long shot to win the Iowa caucuses. There’s no comfort back home either: she faces uncertain re-election prospects in her own House seat at the end of the presidential primary season.”

QUOTE OF THE DAY- Mitt Romney “When the president’s characterization of our economy was, ‘It could be worse,’ it reminded me of Marie Antoinette: ‘Let them eat cake,’” Romney said, referring to the infamously dismissive remark toward the poor attributed to the queen.”

ALEX BURNS’ WHO WON THE DAY- RON PAUL

“But it was today when the full impact of state Sen. Kent Sorenson’s defection sank in, triggering a daylong firefight between Bachmann and her onetime supporter, whom she accused of taking a payoff to abandon her. When another Bachmann adviser, Iowa operative Wes Enos, came to Sorenson’s defense, he was booted off the campaign. If Bachmann had any chance of delivering a strong closing message to regain traction in the race, she just lost a day squabbling with a defector.

It wasn’t only Bachmann whose campaign shifted gears Thursday in reaction to Paul’s strength: Jon Huntsman put out a web video attacking him for the first time and Rick Santorum, the Iowa momentum candidate of the moment, went after Paul at multiple campaign stops. Add to that a Union Leader editorial blasting Paul as a “dangerous man” and it’s clear which candidate was at the center of the 2012 universe.”

ATTACK OF THE DAY: Huntsman v. Paul in this web ad in which he asks “Can New Hampshire voters really trust Ron Paul?” 

ROMNEY’S CLOSING ARGUMENT: Believe in America Again. 60-second ad airing in Iowa. 

POLL OF THE DAY: INSIDER ADVANTAGE FINDS A 3-WAY TIE IN IOWA

Romney 17%
Paul 17%
Gingrich 17%

Santorum 13%
Bachmann 12%
Perry 11%
Huntsman 3%

RASMUSSEN FINDS ROMNEY UP BY ONE IN IOWA

Romney 23%
Paul 22%
Santorum 16%

Gingrich 13%
Perry 13%
Bachmann 5%
Huntsman 3%

AND GALLUP TRACKING HAS ROMNEY UP BY FOUR NATIONALLY

Romney 27%
Gingrich 23%
Paul 11%
Perry 8%
Bachmann 5%
Santorum 4%
Huntsman 2%

DAVID YEPSEN IN THE WASHINGTON POST- FIVE MYTHS ABOUT THE IOWA CAUCUSES

1/ Iowa voters don’t represent the United States.
2/ Retail politics is king in Iowa.
3/ To win, you need to appeal to right-wing activists.
4/ The weather will influence the outcome.
5/ Iowa caucus-goers take voting more seriously than people in other states.

READ THE DEAN OF THE HAWKEYE STATE’s full analysis 

WALL STREET- from CNBC- “Stocks End Near Highs, S&P Positive for 2011”

  • DOW up 136
  • NASDAQ up 24
  • S&P 500 up 14

The Evening Report for Monday December 12

22 DAYS UNTIL IOWA

TOP STORY: NEARING A DEAL- Reports from Capitol Hill that Congressional appropriators have reached a deal- barring technical corrections- on a $1+ trillion spending measure to fund the federal government into next fiscal year, a key item on Congress’ to-do list before the holiday recess.

From The Hill:

“Congress must approve the omnibus or a temporary spending measure by the end of the day Friday to prevent a government shutdown.

Though they are still working out details, negotiators have been able to agree on a full nine-bill package that they plan to file with the House Rules Committee on Tuesday.

The package will include the Labor-Health and Interior-Environment bills, despite worries late last week that the two parties would be unable to resolve differences over those two spending packages. Aides said compromises had been worked out on controversial environmental, union and healthcare riders.

Another key compromise on the overall omnibus is an agreement to put disaster aid in a separate bill.

The August debt-ceiling deal set a top-line spending limit in 2012 of $1.043 trillion for all 12 appropriations bills, but also permits additional disaster spending of up to $11.3 billion.

 “

The bill is expected to be filed in the House of Representatives tomorrow.

TO-DO LIST: Congress must act on the following items before recessing for the year:

  • Payroll tax extension
  • Unemployment insurance extension
  • Medicare “doc fix” and other tax provisions due to expire on 12/31

ENDING A WAR: President Obama met today with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in Washington, three weeks before the last remaining United States troops are scheduled to leave that country, ending the 7-year long US war in Iraq.

From National Journal:

“This is a historic moment,” Obama said Monday during a visit by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. “A war is ending. A new day is upon us and let us never forget those who gave us this chance.”

Speaking to reporters alongside Maliki, Obama said the Iraqi premier’s decisions regarding the region were motivated by his sense of nationalism rather than any loyalty to his Shiite neighbor, Iran.

“Prime Minister Maliki has been explicit here in the United States, he’s been explicit back in Iraq that his interest is in maintaining Iraqi sovereignty and preventing meddling by anybody inside of Iraq, and I believe him,” Obama said. “He has shown himself to make very tough decisions in the interest of Iraqi nationalism, even if they cause problems with his neighbor.”

SOUNDBITE: In response to a reporter’s question on whether the invasion of Iraq was a “dumb war” “the President said “History will judge the original decision to go into Iraq.”

RNC ATTACKS OBAMA ON 60 MINUTES- Last night, the President said it was his job to “put forward a vision for the country that benefits the vast majority of Americans.” Today, the RNC is up with a new ad that says “America needs jobs, not a vision” Expect this to be a continued line of attack next year

THE LONG ROAD: In an interview today with POLITICO’s Mike Allen in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney suggested that the primary season, that he had once wanted to finish swiftly with victories in the early states, could last well into the spring.

“You see how dramatically the numbers have moved and how quickly they have over the last year?” he replied Monday during a video interview at a grubby French-Canadian diner, Chez Vachon, a storied campaign stop that has hosted George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

“It’s a very fluid electorate. I think I’ll get the nomination. I can’t predict when. … I’ve got — what? — five or six more months to go to make that a reality.”

LINCOLN-DOUGLAS MEET GINGRICH-HUNTSMAN today in New Hampshire during a meeting between the candidates at opposite ends of national public opinion polling.

From the AP’s Steve Peoples:

“There were no time limits, formal rules or reporters asking questions.

And if you ask Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman, they would say there were no clear winners or losers Monday night in what was billed as a “Lincoln-Douglas” presidential debate modeled after the 1858 meetings of Illinois Senate candidates Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas.

In fact, after a 90-minute free-flowing discussion about foreign policy and national security, it was difficult to discern a single area where the Republican presidential contenders disagreed. There were no rhetorical bombs thrown. And what criticism surfaced was aimed at President Barack Obama and America’s threats abroad.

Yet Gingrich was absolutely thrilled.

“This is what we should have a lot more of, because this is substantive,” said Gingrich, the former House speaker. “This is not a Hollywood game. This is not a reality show. This is reality.”

In some ways, the format was a dream come true for Gingrich, a self-proclaimed historian and former college professor, whose intellect and willingness to challenge his rivals has aided a sudden rise in the polls. Having lost most of his campaign cash and staffers over the summer, he bet his presidential ambitions almost exclusively on national media interviews and debates.”

WALL STREET: “An aggressive two-week rally came to a quiet thud Monday on Wall Street, in a light-volume selloff triggered by the familiar fears that Europe was far from solving its sovereign debt crisis,” CNBC reports

  • DOW down 163
  • NASDAQ down 35
  • S&P 500 down 19

“STRONG” PARODIES: Last week, we brought you Rick Perry’s campaign ad “Strong” in which he says “You don’t need to be in the pew every Sunday to know there’s something wrong in this country when gays can serve openly in the military but our kids can’t openly celebrate Christmas or pray in school.”

It now has more dislikes on YouTube than Rebecca Black’s “Friday” and has drawn rebukes and criticism despite being widely viewed and discussed.

The AP ran a story today on the several video parodies that have been posted as replies to Perry’s ad.

“First, there’s the jacket. Many videos have noted that it’s the same type worn by actor Heath Ledger in the 2005 movie “Brokeback Mountain,” which centers on a long love affair between two cowboys.

Many of the video parodies feature actors wearing the shirt and jacket combo, including video satirist Andy Cobb.

“I’m not ashamed to admit that I’m an atheist,” Cobb says, “but you know there’s something wrong with this country when politicians think it’s OK to hate on gays and nonbelievers in ads.”

Another video shows a brown-jacketed rabbi, Jason Miller.

“I’m not ashamed to admit I’m a Jew,” Miller says. “There’s something wrong in our country when gays can serve openly in the military but still can’t marry each other in most U.S. states.”

FOR PROFESSIONAL COMMENT: Stephen Farnsworth, an associate professor of communications at George Mason University, said the ad may well help Perry in Iowa, where polls are starting to show him inch up a bit. But Farnsworth said the ad’s message — and the parodies it has spawned — won’t help in the long run, particularly when it comes to connecting with moderate and swing voters.

“The worst thing to be in American politics is a joke,” Farnsworth said.

The Huffington Post is running a contest where you can vote for your favorite parody video, including one that has nearly 100,00 views by THE EVENING REPORT’s resident video blogger JAMES KOTECKI.

FINALLY: RETHINKING THE INK- The Washington Post-

“If tattoos are the marks of an era — declarations of love, of loss, of triumph, of youthful exuberance or youthful foolishness — then tattoo removals are about regret, confessions that those landmarks are in the past. They’re about the realization that whatever you believed in with such force that you wanted it eternally branded on your skin is now foreign to you.

According to the Pew Research Center, more than 40 percent of Americans between the ages of 26 and 40 have at least one tattoo. Getting a tattoo, once the province of sailors rather than suburbanites, is so mainstream that tats are inked at the mall and seen on everyone from Middle American mothers to H Street hipsters to Hollywood starlets.

Perhaps not surprisingly, a parallel trend is emerging: tattoo removal, with dozens of businesses and training schools opening across the country.”

The Evening Report for Sunday December 11

23 DAYS UNTIL IOWA

BIG PICTURE- “Political winds shift to Democrats”- The Hill-

“President Obama is in better shape at the prospect of a prolonged GOP primary battle between former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and Mitt Romney. Democrats in the House have been buoyed by a series of court decisions on redistricting and Senate Democrats have recently landed potentially strong recruits in conservative-leaning states.

Democrats on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue have seized on the payroll tax extension, which has divided the GOP Voter angst at Washington is extremely high, though it is unclear which party will feel the most of the public’s wrath next November.

The political atmosphere is clearly volatile. A couple months ago, Republicans were optimistic that they had a good chance of running the White House and both chambers of Congress in January, 2013. But since then, that optimism has waned.

PRESIDENT OBAMA was interviewed by Steve Kroft on 60 Minutes tonight.

Excerpts:

OBAMA: Look, the problem is, is that our politics has gotten to the point, where we can’t have an honest conversation about the greatest income inequality since the 1920s. And we can’t have an honest conversation about the irresponsibility that resulted in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, without somebody sayin’ that somehow we’re bein’ divisive. No, we’re bein’ honest about what happened and we’ve gotta be honest about how we move forward.

KROFT: Well, do you think that you might have the unemployment rate down to eight percent by the time the election rolls around?

OBAMA: I think it’s possible. But, you know, I’m not in the job of prognosticating on the economy.

KROFT: There’s a general sense that the stimulus didn’t work…

Obama: Let me stop you there, Steve. First of all, there’s not a general perception that the stimulus didn’t work. You’ve got John McCain’s former economist and a whole series of prominent economists, who say that it created or saved three million jobs and prevented us from goin’ into a Great Depression. That works. So that’s not true.

KROFT: Why do you think you deserve to be re-elected? What have you accomplished?

OBAMA: Not only saving this country from a Great Depression. Not only saving the auto industry. But putting in place a system in which we’re gonna start lowering health care costs and you’re never gonna go bankrupt because you get sick or somebody in your family gets sick. Makin’ sure that we have reformed the financial system, so we never again have taxpayer-funded bailouts and the system is more stable and secure.

Ending Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell. Decimating al Qaeda, including Bin Laden being taken off the field. But when it comes to the economy, we’ve got a lot more work to do. And we’re— we’re gonna keep on at it.

MEANWHILE..in IOWA, the Republican Presidential Candidates debated on Saturday night, their 12th debate of the primary season. Maggie Habberman in POLITICO has seven takeaways

1. Mitt Romney had a $10,000 unforced error
2. Newt Gingrich accomplished what he needed to
3. Gingrich is testing how far right a GOP candidate can go on Israel
4. Rick Perry still has some game
5. Michele Bachmann is the only one invoking Herman Cain
6. The Jon Huntsman-Newt Gingrich debate just got more interesting [this is happening tomorrow night in New Hampshire]
7. Ron Paul gets his due

BIG PICTURE- “Gingrich and Romney poised for drawn-out primary fight for delegates”- Alexander Bolton- The Hill-

“A little-noticed change in Republican Party rules last year means almost all of the states holding caucuses and primaries before April 1 will allocate their delegates proportionally.

This will make it very difficult for Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney to land a lights-out punch early in the contest. Unless one candidate dominates the first several caucuses and primaries, the race could easily stretch into April and beyond, say GOP veterans.Of the states holding primaries or caucuses before March, only Florida and Arizona will allocate all delegates to the candidate who wins the state.

This will make the Sunshine State a big prize in the race for delegates. But will not give Gingrich, Romney or any other candidate who may surge to the front a decisive advantage. The winner of Florida will collect 50 delegates, instead of the state’s usual 99, because of a penalty imposed on the state for advancing its primary to Jan. 31.

Arizona lost half of its 58 delegates by moving its presidential primary to February 28.  There too the winner will collect them all, according to a state party spokesman.

To clinch the nomination, a candidate will need 1143 delegates, according to a Republican National Committee memo.

By March 1, only 146 delegates will have been allocated from the primaries in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Candidates will lay claim to a portion of the 156 delegates in Iowa, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota and Nevada but these are caucus states and they will not set the final allocation of delegates until state conventions set for later 2012.

BUSINESS BRIEF- Lehman to use liquidation money to increase share in Archstone- Business Week-

“Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which has court approval for a $65 billion liquidation plan, will ask a judge to let it use $1.3 billion of estate money to increase its stake in Archstone, its biggest real estate asset, according to a person familiar with the planned bid.”

AT THE BOX OFFICE this weekend

1/ New Year’s Eve- $13.7 million
2/ The Sitter- $10 million
3/ Twilight Saga, Breaking Dawn- $7.9 million
4/ The Muppets- $7 million
5/ Arthur’s Christmas- $6.6 million

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL- In the 3rd, it’s Giants 15/Cowboys 20

SI.COM- “Broncos’ spectacular, improbable run continues”-

“Sometime down the road, when all the Tim Tebow hysteria wears off a bit — maybe when Denver gets knocked out of the playoffs or in the lull of the offseason — we’ll all look back and appreciate this Broncos run for what it really is:

A spectacular, if not wholly unexplainable, sports experience.

This is right up there with Butler making a run to the NCAA Tournament final or that wild, ridiculous final day of the 2011 baseball season. Whether you love or hate Tebow and the Broncos, there is just no way you can sit still and watch these games without showing any emotion.

It defies explanation how Denver has risen to 8-5, and Sunday’s 13-10 overtime win over the Bears has to rank at the top of the Broncos’ list of miraculous outcomes…


Before, when Tebow pulled rabbit after rabbit out of his hat, it was easy enough to chalk it up to Denver’s new quarterback giving the entire team a jolt — more confidence that, no matter what, the game was never out of reach. That’s all still true, but the reason this Broncos run has continued goes beyond that.

What’s happening now is that opposing teams are starting to buy in, too. No one will ever admit to it, of course, but Tebow is in the league’s head.”

Romney Strategy Against Gingrich

ABC News reports this morning in The Note on the expected Romney campaign strategy against Newt Gingrich, who is now challenging Romney for frontrunner status. ABC reports that the Romney campaign held a series of meetings over last weekend to develop the strategy, below:

–Romney will not go after Gingrich on personal issues, but ABC News has learned that you can expect to see Romney surrogates making fairly direct references to Gingrich’s tumultuous past. You can also expect to see Ann Romney and the Romney family on the trail much more, especially in South Carolina, to create a visual contrast.

–The Romney team sees Gingrich’s temperament as a weakness. Romney, himself, will highlight the importance of temperament by discussing his record as a leader. Surrogates are likely to go after Newt directly.

–You will see the Romney team begin to utilize their huge financial advantage. One Republican says expect ads in South Carolina soon. Not because they think it will guarantee victory — polls show them trailing there — but because they are concerned with keeping it close.

–The Romney team will flex its organizational muscle, especially in Florida where they have an extensive infrastructure

The Evening Report for Wednesday November 30, 2011

34 DAYS UNTIL IOWA

JUST IN: Virginia Attorney Governor Ken Cuccinelli will announce that he is running for governor in 2013, the Washington Post reports tonight.

Cuccinelli was elected Attorney General in 2009 and has become a hero among tea party conservatives for his positions on health care, immigration and gay rights.

Incumbent Republican Governor Bob McDonnell is not eligible to run for re-election in 2013 due to term limits. Cuccinelli is expected to face Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling in a primary.

On the Democratic side, former DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe is reportedly considering a second attempt at the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

CAMPAIGN 2012:

NEWT GINGRICH ON FOX NEWS TONIGHT: “And it’s clear that across the country, people are saying, you know, I think we need Newt Gingrich,” he said. “Whereas I would have thought originally it was going to be Mitt and not-Mitt, I think it’s going to — it may turn out to be Newt and not-Newt.”

RON PAUL ATTACKS GINGRICH: In a new web video out today (that only has 301 views), the Ron Paul campaign attacks Gingrich for what they call “serial hypocrisy” and applies the same flip-flopping charge that is more often leveled against Mitt Romney, to Gingrich.

HERMAN CAIN ON FOX NEWS THIS AFTERNOON: “I can only conjecture that maybe I am the Democrats’ worst nightmare if I win the nomination … Maybe the Democrats want Newt Gingrich to win the nomination, so they can then go after his personal life.” Officially, Cain is still “reassessing” his candidacy.

AND THEN, Cain said this, via POLITICO, “On the many, many phone calls between him and the woman accusing him of having a 13-year affair Ginger White, Cain said: “I talked to a lot of people 61 times.”

STILL TONIGHT, Cain had more to say, in a 9pm news conference, he said he could not guarantee that more allegations could come forward.”I can’t say that someone won’t drum up another accusation. It just comes with the territory, he siad.

MITT ROMNEY UP WITH NH AD: The second ad of the campaign cycle put up by the Romney Campaign. Their first, last week, was widely criticized for a misleading quote from President Obama during the 2008 campaign. The ad is straightforward and attacks the President’s economic policy.

PRESIDENT OBAMA is in New York City tonight, attending four campaign fundraisers. Earlier today, the President was in Scranton, Pennsylvania, the birthplace of Vice President Joe Biden (who is in Baghdad today) urging Congress to extend & expand the payroll tax cut passed last year for in 2012. He is due back at The White House at 12:30am Thursday.

ON CAPITOL HILL, there is some movement on extending the payroll tax cut, with GOP leadership emerging generally in favor of doing so, resisting the opposition of some more conservative members.

In a closed-door House Republican caucus meeting today, The Hill reports that Majority Leader Eric Cantor laid down the gauntlet, saying, “taxes are a Republican issue and you aren’t a Republican if you want to raise taxes on struggling families to fund bigger government.”

THE REPUBLICAN PLAN as it is currently being floated, would freeze pay for federal workers an additional year (it has already been frozen for two years), trim the federal workforce by roughly 10% and introduce some means-testing for federal programs such as Medicare and unemployment insurance.

Ordinarily, these proposals would be dismissed out of hand by Democrats (much like their proposal, to pay for the tax extension by charging a surtax on millionaire taxes, is being by Republicans), however, the proposals in the Republican plan are taken from the bi-partisan Simpson/Bowles Committee recommendations that many Democrats see as the basis for long-term deficit reduction.

COORDINATED ACTION BY THE FED and other central banks around the world this morning was designed to increase the amount of US dollars in circulation around the world and act as a buffer to continued anxiety over the European debt crisis.

As the New York Times reports:

“The banks announced that they would reduce by roughly half the cost of an existing program under which banks in foreign countries can borrow dollars from their own central banks, which in turn get those dollars from the Fed.  The banks also said that loans will be available until February 2013, extending a previous endpoint of August 2012.”

“The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity,” the banks said in a statement. The participants in addition to the Fed were the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank.”

WALL STREET reported its best day of 2011 as a result of the Fed’s announcement:

  • DOW up 490 to 12,045
  • NASDAQ up 105 to 2,620
  • S&P 500 up 52 to 1,247

BILLY GRAHAM was admitted to a hospital today in North Carolina, reportedly suffering from pneumonia-like symptoms. The iconic Evangelical minister is 93-years old and has been in declining health in recent years.

$9 GAS? it looks like that’s a possibility this winter in NOME, ALASKA. A historic winter storm earlier this month prevented a barge from reaching the Alaskan city best known the Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race, and now officials are coming up with a plan to fly small quantities of gasoline into the community of 3,500 residents, at an extraordinarily high cost.

The Associated Press reports on the predicament:

“A gallon of gas was selling for $5.98 and jet fuel $6.77 a gallon on Wednesday. The next barge delivery wouldn’t be until next June. In the meantime, flying fuel to the city could increase the cost per gallon by $3 to $4, officials said.”

“We are going to have to have fuel drivers picking up fuel 24 hours a day as flights are available to fly into Nome,” said Jason Evans, board chairman of Sitnasuak Native Corp., which provides services to the region.”

“Sitnasuak arranged in May with petroleum distributor Delta Western Inc. to have three barges deliver fuel to Nome, but only one arrived early in the summer, Evans said. That barge carried home heating fuel.”

“The storm that barreled into Alaska’s western coastline in mid-November, zeroing in on Nome, prevented the arrival of a barge carrying 1.6-million gallons of gasoline and diesel.”

FINALLY...the 2011 Rockefeller Christmas Tree is lit! This year’s tree is a 74-foot tall Norweigan Spruce from Miffinville, Pa. Over 34,00 lights- stretching some five miles- illuminate the tree.

The first Christmas Tree was placed in Rockefeller Plaza in 1931 and the first tree lighting ceremony was held in 1933. The 2011 tree will be illuminated each evening- and all day Christmas Day- until January 07, 2012.

FOLLOW THE EVENING REPORT ON TWITTER: @EVENING_REPORT


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The Evening Report for Monday November 28, 2011

EXCLUSIVE: NEW KOTECKI VIDEO…WOMAN ALLEGES CAIN HAD AFFAIR WITH HER FOR 13 YEARSMITT V MITT…BARNEY FRANK RETIRES…WALL STREET RISES…ANNE HATHAWAY ENGAGED

36 DAYS UNTIL IOWA

TOP STORY: New sexual allegations against Herman Cain, the one-time GOP front-runner, today. FOX 5 Atlanta reports that a woman, Ginger White, alleges that Cain had an affair with her for 13 years. In what may be a first for politics in the digital media age, Cain preempted the allegations in an interview with CNN’s Wolf Blitzer this afternoon, denying them before they had even been made public.

CAIN, “I did not have an affair, and until I see and hear exactly what’s going to be, what accusations are going to be made, let’s move on. Here we go again. I didn’t do anything wrong.”

WHITE ON CAIN, “It was fun. It was something that took me away from my humdrum life at the time. And it was exciting.”

And then there is Herman Cain’s lawyer, Lin Wood who, through written statement, drew a distinction between an extra-material affair and Cain’s previous scandal, allegations of sexual harassment.

WOOD, “If any candidate wants to publicly discuss his private sex life, that is his or her life. But I don’t believe that there’s an obligation on the part of any political candidate to do so.”

AN EVENING REPORT EXCLUSIVE: Videoblogger JAMES KOTECKI has a new satirical video on Herman Cain’s Private Affair. You’re seeing it first here tonight.

BEFORE THE CAIN ALLEGATIONS BROKE, the top political story of the day was the Democratic National Committee releasing the sharpest political video yet this cycle, launching a new web site at www.mittvmitt.com and a 4-minute web video that is meant as an “opening trailer” into an attack on Mitt Romney’s character and flip-flop positions- on abortion, assault weapons, TARP, the auto bailout, economic stimulus, health care and immigration. A 30-second television ad tees it up:

ANALYSIS: This shows the DNC and the Obama Campaign are expecting that Romney will eventually be the Republican nominee and are starting their general election attacks against him now. They are also trying to encourage the type of Republican attacks against Romney that, so far, the field has been reluctant to engage in.

GALLUP and RASMUSSEN peg President Obama’s job approval rating at 44% in new polls released today, the same figure as his average for the last six months. Gallup has disapproval at 47%, Rasmussen at 54%.

STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE BARNEY FRANK

“I will not be a candidate for reelection to the House of Representatives in 2012.”

“Our politics has evolved in a way that makes it harder to get anything done at the federal level. I believe that I have been effective as a Member of Congress working inside the process to influence public policy in the ways that I think are important. But I now believe that there is more to be done trying to change things from outside than by working within”

Due to redistricting, the lines of Frank’s district are to be re-drawn to add approximately 325,000 new constituents, a factor that he said impacted his decision. Frank is the 9th Democrat to announce his retirement from the House in 2012.

WALL STREET:

  • DOW up 291
  • NASDAQ up 86
  • S&P 500 up 34

BREAKING TONIGHT: Facebook plans a $10 billion IPO in 2012, the Wall Street Journal was first to report. From Reuters:

“Facebook’s Chief Financial Officer, David Ebersman, had discussed a public float with Silicon Valley bankers but founder and Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg had not decided on any terms and his plans could change, the Journal said.

The social network, which now claims more than 800 million members after seven years of explosive growth, has not selected bankers to manage what would be a very closely watched IPO. But it had drafted an internal prospectus and was ready at any moment to pull the IPO trigger, the Journal cited people familiar with the matter as saying.

A formal S-1 filing could come before the end of the year, though nothing was decided, the newspaper added.

A Facebook representative declined to comment.”

HUFFINGTON POST: Actress Anne Hathaway is engaged to marry her longtime boyfriend, Adam Shulman…The pair, who have been dating for three years, confirmed the news through her representative, Stephen Huvane. In October, it was reported that Hathaway, 29, had moved into Shulman’s apartment in Brooklyn. Hathaway previously dated Raffaello Follieri; the relationship ended after the Italian jewelry designer pled guilty to money laundering, conspiracy and wire fraud.”

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: With 4 minutes left in the 3rd, it’s Saints 28, Giants 10.

The Evening Report for Sunday November 27 2011

TOP STORY: This morning, the New Hampshire Union-Leader announced it was endorsing NEWT GINGRICH in the state’s first-in-the-nation Republican Presidential Primary on January 10th.

The endorsement is a significant development in the 2012 Republican Primary race and the Union-Leader’s endorsement is a coveted prize for any presidential candidate. At this moment in the race, the endorsement is likely to send shock waves through the prevailing conventional wisdom: that Mitt Romney is the inevitable Republican nominee. And with over 10 days until the next scheduled candidates debate, there is a lot of time for the idea of Gingrich as frontrunner to solidify.

FROM THE ENDORSEMENT: “An Editorial: For President, Newt Gingrich”-

“…we don’t back candidates based on popularity polls or big-shot backers. We look for conservatives of courage and conviction who are independent-minded, grounded in their core beliefs about this nation and its people, and best equipped for the job.

We don’t have to agree with them on every issue. We would rather back someone with whom we may sometimes disagree than one who tells us what he thinks we want to hear.

Newt Gingrich is by no means the perfect candidate. But Republican primary voters too often make the mistake of preferring an unattainable ideal to the best candidate who is actually running. In this incredibly important election, that candidate is Newt Gingrich. He has the experience, the leadership qualities and the vision to lead this country in these trying times. He is worthy of your support on January 10.”

The language is a striking rebuke to Mitt Romney, the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, who has made it a point to emphasize his ties to the Granite State and who is counting on New Hampshire for a first primary win.

FROM THE GINGRICH CAMPAIGN: “Newt-Mentum: Newt Now Consensus Conservative Choice”

“With today’s endorsement by one of the country’s most important conservative barometer, the New Hampshire Union-Leader, the paper that was among the first to champion Ronald Reagan, Newt Gingrich has solidified his hold as the conservative front runner in the 2012 presidential race.”

THREE THINGS TO WATCH NEXT:

1/ Will Romney attack Gingrich?
2/ Will stories about “Newt Inc”- the elaborate business, non-profit and consulting conglomerate that Gingrich has built since leaving elected office, resonate more as Gingrich assumes front-runner status, or be discredited by the public as more attacks from a liberal media?
3/ Will Gingrich make a mistake, as he has been prone to do in the past, that will make his front or near-front runner status short-lived?

REAL CLEAR POLITICS AVERAGES

  • National Nomination: Gingrich + 2.5%
  • Iowa: Gingrich + 5.0%
  • New Hampshire: Romney + 18.3%
  • South Carolina: Cain + 1.0%

SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY tonight fired its mens associate head basketball coach, Bernie Fine, after a third accuser came forward alleging that Fine sexually molested him as a child. Fine had been on administrative leave since November 17th. It was his 36th season with Syracuse.

Message to the SU community from Chancellor Nancy Cantor, in part:

“Frankly, the events of the past week have shaken us all.  The taped phone call that ESPN revealed today was not provided to the University by Mr. Davis during the 2005 investigation by our legal counsel.  Like the media review of the case a few years earlier, no other witnesses came forward during the university investigation, and those who felt they knew Bernie best could not imagine what has unfolded.”

ESPN has been leading the reporting on the Syracuse sexual abuse scandal and broke the news about today’s third accuser, whose story has not yet been corroborated, and the presence of a recorded audiotape from a previous accuser, Bobby Davis. 

“Bobby Davis, now 39, told ESPN that Fine molested him beginning in 1984 and that the sexual contact continued until he was around 27. A ball boy for six years, Davis told ESPN that the abuse occurred at Fine’s home, at Syracuse basketball facilities and on team road trips, including the 1987 Final Four.

Davis’ stepbrother, Mike Lang, 45, who also was a ball boy, told ESPN that Fine began molesting him while he was in fifth or sixth grade.

On Sunday, ESPN played an audiotape, obtained and recorded by Davis, of an October 2002 telephone conversation between him and Laurie Fine.

Davis told ESPN he made the recording, which also has been given to Syracuse police, without her knowledge because he knew he needed proof for the police to believe his accusations. ESPN said it hired a voice recognition expert to verify the voice on the tape and the network said it was determined to be that of Laurie Fine.”

The ARAB LEAGUE today approved a new series of economic sanctions against Syria, as a divided Middle East applies continued pressure against the regime of Bashar Assad. As the Washington Post reports, “The decision is the first of its kind by a body that is often perceived as divided and indecisive.” However, it is not immediately clear to what extent these sanction, which are meant to isolate Syrian business dealings, will have.

BLACK FRIDAY sales were up 16.7% over last year, the National Retail Federation reported today, to $52.4 billion. Over the course of the four day (or in the case of stores that opened on Thanksgiving night, five day) holiday weekend, 226 million shoppers spent an average of $398.62.

PUTTING THAT NUMBER IN PERSPECTIVE: It’s 74% of the US population (estimated in July at 307 million people). 133 million Americans voted in the 2008 presidential election.

WHAT DID WE BUY? (note: doesn’t add up to 100 because people buy in multiple categories)

  • 51%- clothing & clothing accessories
  • 40%- electronic items
  • 22%- home decor
  • 23%- gift cards
  • 33%- toys
  • 22%- jewelry

TOMORROW IS CYBER MONDAY and the National Retail Federation estimates that 123 million Americans will shop online tomorrow. 106.9 million Americans shopped online during Cyber Monday last year.

FOLLOW @ShopCyberMonday on Twitter, and visit www.cybermonday.com, for hour-by-hour deals tomorrow.

WATCH OVERNIGHT: At 12:01am PT, the deadline set by Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa for the eviction of Occupy LA protestors from City Hall passes. A similar deadline passed tonight in Philadelphia without incident to this point, with police standing by and not yet cracking down on 50 or so protestors who remain in Philly. It is not clear how forceful police will be in LA enforcing the Mayor’s deadline.

AT THE BOX OFFICE over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend:

1/ Twilight: Breaking Dawn- $42 million
2/ The Muppets- $29.5 million
3/ Happy Feet Two- $13.4 million
4/ Arthur Christmas- $12.7 million
5/ Hugo- $11.4 million

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: At halftime, its Steelers 10, Chiefs 6.

FINALLY: Supreme Court Associate Justice Sonia Sotomayor was spotted tonight at the Giant Supermarket by Van Ness/UDC, no doubt doing some shopping at the neighborhood market after a long holiday weekend.