The Golden Report

16 DAYS UNTIL IOWA

BREAKING: North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jon-Il has died.

The news broke just after 10pm Eastern Time and is developing at this hour. The death of one of the world’s most notorious and mysterious dictators becomes one of the largest news stories of the year 2011, a year that has also seen the death of Osama bin Laden, and Muhammar Kadaffi.

THE LATEST- via @BreakingNews’ @MPoppel

North Korean Gov’t says Kim Jong-il died ‘from a great mental and physical strain’ at 8.30 a.m. on Saturday

South Korean military declared emergency alert, says Yonhap News Agency

North Korean Gov’t says Kim Jong-il died on a train during a field guidance tour

Gov’t confirms Kim Jong-il had received medical treatment for ‘his cardiac and cerebrovascular diseases’ for a long period

North Korean gov’t says Kim Jong-il suffered from an ‘advanced acute myocardial infarction, complicated with serious heart shock’ on Saturday

North Korea says Kim Jong-il was given every possible first-aid measure, but died at 8.30 a.m. An autopsy took place on Sunday.

Yonhap: SKorea’s Cheong Wa Dae convenes emergency meeting of National Security Council over Kim’s death

FIRST THOUGHTS

The region is extremely unstable right now and it will take days or weeks to assess if a transfer of power is able to occur in North Korea, what this means for the known nuclear program in the country, relations with other nations and the United States, etc.

The death of Kim Jon Il apparently occurred nearly 48 hours ago. Did US intelligence have a heads-up as to Kim Jon Il’s death or are they first learning of the death through North Korean state news, with the rest of the world, tonight?

How smooth is a transition (Kim Jon Il’s successor is thought to be his youngest son)? Is one able to take place? Will South Korea, China, or the United States seek to intervene in any way?

In 2003, then President George W. Bush declared three nations in the world to be part of an AXIS OF EVIL- Iraq, Iran and North Korea. On this day, Sunday December 18, 2011, the final US troops withdrew from Iraq and we learned of the death of North Korean dictator Kim Jon Il.

THE MARKETS- Asian stock markets are significantly lower- between 1 and 2 percent- in the first hour after this news broke. South Korea stock markets are lower by about five percent.

TOP US STORY: Negotiations over the payroll tax cut extension, passed by the Senate Saturday morning, have apparently broken down in the House.

FROM THE WASHINGTON POST:

“In an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Boehner said the short-term package, which was negotiated by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), should be re-worked by a conference committee in order to reach a longer deal that is acceptable to House Republicans.

Boehner’s comments came a day after the Senate agreed to a two-month extension in a payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits that will expire Jan. 1, top priorities for President Obama and congressional Democrats.

The White House and congressional Democrats responded that if the House does not proceed on the compromise that overwhelmingly passed the Senate, Republicans will be to blame.”

WHAT TO WATCH:

The House is back in session tomorrow, as negotiations will continue behind closed doors. They will only bring a bill to the floor if the House Republican majority believes they have the vote to pass it.

Will the House demand a conference with the Senate? Will Harry Reid go along? Today Reid indicated that he was not inclined to bring the Senate back into session this week.

Will the President step into negotiations? What is the White House position? [Very unclear at this point]

Will the entire negotiations break down and Congress recesses early to mid week without a deal, allowing a tax increase in two weeks?

CAMPAIGN 2012

BIG ENDORSEMENT- Illinois Sen. Mark Kirk will endorse Gov. Mitt Romney tomorrow

THE CANDIDATES- Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum participated in a tele-forum tonight sponsored by an Iowa tea party group.

TIGHTENING RACE- Latest Gallup National GOP Poll: Gingrich 28, Romney 24, Paul 10, Bachmann 7, Perry 6, Santorum 4, Huntsman 2

RECAPPING- the latest-from the New York Times (11:00pm ET)

SEOUL, South Korea — Kim Jong-il, the reclusive North Korean leader who has been battling ill health following a reported stroke in 2008, has died, the North’s official news media reported on Monday.

“Our great leader Comrade Kim Jong-il passed away at 8:30 a.m. on Dec. 17,” Korean Central TV reported.

Mr. Kim was 69 years old. Since he reportedly suffered a stroke in 2008, he has been grooming his third son, Kim Jong-un, believed to be in his late 20s, to be his successor, as his country struggled to fight widespread food shortages and international sanctions imposed for its nuclear weapons development.”

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HAPPENING NOW: Game Five of the World Series. After four innings. its CARDINALS 2, RANGERS 1

TOP STORY: In Nevada late this afternoon, Pres. Obama announced a new plan for homeowners facing foreclosure or living in homes that are “under water,” easing federal regulations to make it easier for homeowners to refinance their mortgages

As the Washington Post’s ZACHARY GOLDFARB (who had a piece in today’s paper highly critical of the Administration’s housing policy to date) reports tonight, “Housing regulators say that 1 million borrowers might be eligible, but that is only one-tenth of the number of homeowners who need help. And while estimates cited by the administration suggest the average homeowner might save $2,500 per year, other projections from housing regulators were in the range of $312 per year, depending on upfront fees the borrower pays, which may include several thousand dollars in closing costs.”

The housing policy announcement was the first in the Administration’s new “We Can’t Wait” campaign- the new rhetorical theme- replacing the “Pass The Bill” mantra the President has used since the mid-September introduction of the American Jobs Act in a primetime Address to Congress

TOMORROW’S TOP TALKER..TONIGHT.. “Republicans Embrace Twitter for ‘12” by the New York Times’ JENNIFER STEINHAUER:

“It’s a bit of a table turn on Mr. Obama, whose 2008 campaign capitalized on social media in a way that left Republicans bruised and scrambling. Now, after a post-election order from Speaker John A. Boehner that year, House Republicans have embraced Twitter as their karaoke microphone to push their message against the White House bullhorn.

The insta-Tweet has revolutionized rapid response operations that just two years ago relied heavily on cable television, e-mails and news conferences to spread the word of the opposition, which often took a day or two to gain momentum. That time lag could delay the message from taking hold, a result Republicans were eager to undo.”

Republican House members have more than twice as many followers as their Democratic counterparts — about 1.3 million versus roughly 600,000 — and are far more active on Twitter with more than 157,000 individual Twitter messages, versus roughly 62,000 for Democrats.

“The Republicans in Congress are using new media technology to compete for the attention of Beltway reporters,” said Josh Earnest, the White House deputy press secretary. “We use it to compete for the attention of the American people,” he said, pointing to interactive forums that the White House conducts. “These are two different goals.”

At a daily meeting in Mr. Boehner’s office, the communications staff decides what they should be Twittering and blogging about, said Don Seymour, the speaker’s digital communications director. He sits at a desk with one computer for his e-mail and another monitor for his Tweet Deck, his iPad on his lap and a Coke in one hand. A half-dozen televisions show various stations and the House and Senate floors above, where someone might say something that begs for instant reaction.”

THE FULL ARTICLE is a Must-Read

WALL STREET today: All eyes on BRUSSELS two days before 17 European nations meet to reach a decision on a Eurozone bailout, bank restructuring and a solution to the debt crisis in Greece

• DOW up 105
• NASDAQ up 62
• S&P 500 up 16

TUNISIA yesterday held its first elections since the revolution at the end of last year that sparked the Arab Awakening. The widely-watched elections were the first in the region since interim governments took control following the deposition of longtime dictators. Official election results in Tunisia are expected tomorrow- but early returns show that the moderate Islamist party Ennahdha is on track to be declared the victor. This government will draft the country’s new constitution

JOHN PODESTA announced today that he was stepping aside as the President of the liberal think tank Center for American Progress. President Bill Clinton’s former Chief of Staff will remain the Chairman of CAP and also volunteer one-day a week as an advisor to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, POLITICO reports. Podesta chaired the Obama/Biden transition effort in 2008 and 2009. In 1998, John and his brother Tony Podesta co-founded the powerhouse DC lobbying firm The Podesta Group. CAP’s Chief Operating Officer Neera Tanden will become the next President

MEET THE PRESS Executive Producer BETSY FISCHER and POLITICO reporter JONATHAN MARTIN are engaged, the couple announced on Saturday. Fischer posted to her Facebook page yesterday, “Excited to change my FB status to engaged - can’t wait to marry my best friend Jonathan Martin. Makes me happy every day. A surprise propsal Friday night at the Inn at Perry Cabin on MD Eastern Shore = smiling all weekend.”

ABC POLITICAL REPORTER RICK KLEIN and his wife, Laine Kaplowitz, welcomed their third child, Max Rubin Klein, into the world on Saturday. Klein is co-host of ABC’s midday “Topline” broadcast and a frequent staple of the ABC News Washington bureau (and the Twitterspehere,@RickKlein)

OBAMA Campaign Manager Jim Messina today announced that BRODERICK JOHNSON will be joining the 2012 campaign as a senior advisor and national surrogate. Johnson served as an informal advisor in 2008 but did not join the Administration upon President Obama’s election, instead choosing to go to K Street as a lobbyist. Johnson is married to NPR’s MICHELE NORRIS, co-host of All Things Considered. Norris announced today that she will take a leave of absence while her husband works on the campaign, saying in a statement , “Given the nature of Broderick’s position with the campaign and the impact that it will most certainly have on our family life, I will temporarily step away from my hosting duties until after the 2012 elections.I will be leaving the host chair at the end of this week, but I’m not going far. I will be wearing a different hat for a while, producing signature segments and features and working on new reporting projects. While I will of course recuse myself from all election coverage, there’s still an awful lot of ground that I can till in this interim role.”

RICK PERRY may be preparing for a campaign re-launch. TIME’s MARK HALPERIN reported this morning that Perry was adding new staff to his campaign- including George W. Bush’s 2000 campaign manager JOE ALLBAUGH (who later went on to serve as Administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency). Also, the campaign’s first television ads in Iowa are expected to air as early as Wednesday of this week- which will make Perry the first candidate to go up on the air with paid advertisements in the 2012 cycle

FINALLY.. Netflix announced today that it has lost more than 800,000 subscribers over the past three months- after the company initially announced it was splitting its DVD-by-mail and online streaming businesses into two, with a price hike, and then rescinded that decision after public criticism several weeks later

BUT as the New York Times reports in a story tomorrow co-written by media correspondent BRIAN STELTER, the company actually reported good results for the third quarter, “Despite the decline in subscribers, the company did well financially in the quarter. It reported net income of $62.5 million, or $1.16, a share, compared with $38 million, or 70 cents a share, in the year-earlier quarter. Revenue rose 49 percent to $822 million. Both revenue and income topped analysts’ expectations,’ they write. The company also announced today a planned expansion into the United Kingdom and Ireland in 2012.

The story chronicles Netflix’s dramatic rise and fall- all in the course of the last two years, and Stelter describes it as a “cautionary tale for other companies that try to transform to new media from old.”

FRIDAY EARLY EDITION

TOP STORY: SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN IN THREE PARTS

THE VOTES: The House of Representatives voted at 12:30am ET on a Continuing Resolution, their second attempt at a bill to keep the government funding beyond the end of the fiscal year: one week from today. The bill contained the “Solyndra Option”- increases in funding for emergency disaster assistance offset by cuts in a renewable energy program that gave a government-backed grant to the now-failed solar company. The party-line vote was the result of nearly two days of behind door talks with the Speaker and the Republican Caucus. This afternoon, on a 59-36 vote, the Senate failed to reach the 60 votes necessary to consider the House CR. Thereby making it dead. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said today that the Senate will vote on Monday afternoon on a Democratic-sponsored continuing resolution, that is also expected to fail. 

THE DEADLINES: According to Congressional officials, the Federal Emergency Management Agency only has about $174 million left in disaster assistance funds. At current burn rates, the money will be expired by Monday at the earliest and Wednesday at the latest. The Federal Government would begin a shutdown at midnight next Friday night, into Saturday morning. A partial shutdown would occur over the weekend (many offices are closed anyway) and a full shutdown on Monday morning. The House of Representatives was supposed to adjourn tonight for a week-long recess, that is now in question- the House would appear to have to stay in session in order to pass a bill to meet both of these deadlines. Both the House and Senate have adjourned for the weekend- delaying any action until next week.

THE NEXT STEP: Far from clear. What we do know is nothing is going to get done this weekend. The Senate could still try to pass the House approved continuing resolution- and by staying in Recess, that is a bargaining chip that House Republicans can play. The obvious next step is for both sides to negotiate on a compromise package- although there do not appear to be any negotiations planned or considered at this time. And unlike the shutdown threat earlier this year, the White House has thus far not become involved in any way  on reaching a resolution. Watch to see if there are signs over the weekend- perhaps on the Sunday shows- of movement on any of these three areas.

THE OTHER BIG STORY: Despite posting some gains for the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its worst week since August 2008, down over 6%. The NASDAQ was lower by 5% and the S&P 500 was lower nearly 7% on the week, although all three indices were up today. The culprit? The health of the global economy- specifically in Europe and the continuing Greek debt crisis. Last week’s extraordinary meeting of Euro Zone Finance Ministers with Treasury Secretary Geithner, the statements of support and unity by France and Germany, and this week’s IMF meetings all seem to have done very little to calm the nerves of clearly rattled markets. This week shows that there are not going to be easy answers to solving the underlying problems- and they are not going to come quickly. There is now active conversation about a repeat of 2008: a global economic recession that will be sparked- not by a crisis of credit, but rather by a crisis of confidence. As the IMF met in Washington this week, statements from leaders indicated this concern and a desire to get ahead of financial instability- using any and all monetary and fiscal policy tools at central banks disposals- before a crisis could spread, potentially causing a devastating ripple effect. This was evidenced in an overnight statement from the financial leaders of the G-20 nations which said, in part, there is an urgent need for “a response to address the renewed challenges facing the global economy.”

THE THIRD BIG STORY: At the United Nations today, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas went ahead, as expected, with a proposal to grant the Palestinian Authority statehood status and recognition. Shortly after that move, it was learned that the United States, United Nations, Europe Union and Russia (the quartet) would soon announce a re-opening of peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians. Details are still emerging and will continue to be learned for the rest of the day. If true- then Abbas succeeded in this week’s UN tactics in a sense- because he re-injected the Mid East Peace Process onto the international agenda and forced the international community- distracted by a plethora of issues, including Libya, Iran and the global economy- to focus again on the complexities and challenges of his nation. Statement from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: ““We urge both parties to take advantage of this opportunity to get back to get back to talks, and the United States pledges our support as the parties themselves take the important next steps for a two-solution, which is what all of us are hoping to achieve.”

TWO OTHER INTERNATIONAL STORIES:

• Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh returned to his country today, after four months in Saudi Arabia for health treatment and as the result of insurgency, protest and political tumult in his country. It has been a particularly violent week in Yemen as months-long anti-government protests continued and it is unclear whether his return will help to quell- or provoke further- the protests
• In Senate testimony yesterday, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Michael Mullen suggested that he has evidence that the Pakistan Intelligence Service, the ISI, was behind recent attacks against American forces in Afghanistan, including the siege of the American compound last week and the assassination this week of the former Afghan President. Today, the Pakistani Army Chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani rejected Mullen’s suggestions (which has been reinforced by other US leaders in recent days and weeks) of a connection between the ISI and the militant Haqqani network. This only further shows the difficulty and complexity of the US relationship with Pakistan. 

FINALLY: The Evening Report comes to you tonight from Phoenix, Arizona- site of the 66th Annual National Conference on Citizenship. Today, the 2011 Arizona Civic Health Index was released at a breakfast before the actual Conference, which came to Arizona this year- for the first time in its history- thanks to a partnership between NCoC and the Center For The Future of Arizona. Among the speakers today: former Huffington Post and New York Times reporter Jose Antonio Vargas, who publicly revealed his undocumented immigration status three months ago. In a state where immigration is a deeply contentious issue, Vargas’s appearance- as well as the rest of the insightful Conference program- showed how NCoC is advancing its role as a dynamic, non-partisan non-profit exploring what shapes today’s citizenry, define the evolving role of the individual in our democracy, and uncover ways to motivate greater participation.

BREAKING NEWS- SUPREME COURT DENIES STAY OF EXECUTION FOR TROY DAVIS- Within the past few minutes, the Supreme Court has issued a decision in the case of Troy Davis, the Georgia inmate who is scheduled to be put to death tonight by lethal injection for the 1989 murder of an off-duty police officer. The Court has refused to issue a stay of the execution. Prison officials have not yet said whether the execution will go forward as planned tonight, but that is expected. CBS is reporting there were no dissents in the decision, which was issued by Justice Clarence Thomas, of Georgia. For the past few days public attention has been focused on the Davis case- it increased through the day as first a Circuit Court, then the State Supreme Court and now the US Supreme Court have rejected emergency appeals.

TOP STORY- The House of Representatives failed this afternoon to adopt a continuing resolution that would keep the government funded beyond next Saturday’s end of the fiscal year. 48 Republicans joined a majority of Democrats in voting against the CR. Opposition came from Democrats for two reasons: a lower level of funding for FEMA than the Senate has proposed- and an offset that would pay for that increased funding by scrapping grants for a renewable energy program. Conservative Republican opposition came because the CR actually sets a higher level of annual spending than the original House passed FY2012 budget, but is consistent with the bi-partisan discretionary spending caps agreed to in the Budget Control Act of August. Congressional leaders still have over a week to come to a resolution on the funding dispute to prevent a shutdown- but today’s vote was a rare public defeat for the House Speaker, John Boehner

FREE AT LAST- Americans Shane Bauer and Joshua Fattal, jailed in 2009 after hiking across the Iranian border, were released from Iranian custody this morning and have now been reunited with their families in the Arab nation of Oman. They were detained on July 31, 2009; a third hiker, Sarah Shroud, Bauer’s fiance, was also detained in 2009 and released almost a year ago. Eight days ago, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told NBC’s Ann Curry in an interview that the hikers would be released “in a mater of days,” and this action comes one day before Ahmadinejad is scheduled to address the Untied Nations General Assembly in New York. Bauer and Fatel, now both 29, first met and became friends at the University of California Berkeley

STATEMENT FROM THE PRESIDENT: “I welcome the release of Shane Bauer and Josh Fattal from detention in Iran and am very pleased that they are being reunited with their loved ones.  The tireless advocacy of their families over these two years has won my admiration, and is now coming to an end with Josh and Shane back in their arms.  All Americans join their families and friends in celebrating their long-awaited return home.”

DEVELOPING TONIGHT- The United States continues to negotiate with the Palestinian Authority over their plans to introduce a measure asking for statehood recognition at the UN on Friday. France has joined the United States in pressuring Palestine to drop their proposal and rejoin negotiations with Israel- with France proposing a new one-year negotiation deadline, that the Palestinian Authority has rejected. President Obama met with both the Israeli and Palestinian leaders today- and also addressed the General Assembly, saying, “One year ago, I stood at this podium and I called for an independent Palestine. I believed then, and I believe now, that the Palestinian people deserve a state of their own. But what I also said is that a genuine peace can only be realized between the Israelis and the Palestinians themselves.”

A BUSY DAY FOR THE PRESIDENT- who held meetings with the leaders of ISRAEL, JAPAN, THE UNITED KINGDOM and FRANCE, addressed the UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY, a luncheon hosted by Secretary-General BAN KI-MOON, and went across town to deliver a speech at the CLINTON GLOBAL INITIATIVE. He has just left a UN LEADER RECEPTION with the First Lady at the NEW YORK PUBLIC LIBRARY and was driven my motorcade to JFK Airport because bad weather grounded Marine One. The President will return to the White House overnight. 

TOMORROW, the President travels to OHIO to stand on a bridge on the OHIO/KENTUCKY Border to highlight an infrastructure project that would be funded in the American Jobs Act. Ohio is the home state of Speaker Boehner; Kentucky the home state of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

The FEDERAL RESERVE announced today a plan to invest $400 billion in long-term Treasury Securities over the next 9 months, a stimulus measure designed to increase economic growth and a sign that the Central Bank does not see another option for the struggling American economy. From the Fed Statement, “Growth remains slow. Recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions and the unemployment rate remains elevated..Household spending has been increasing at only a modest pace in recent months.” The lower interest rates are meant to spur investments, but, as the New York Times reports, “The new effort is an experiment without a direct precedent, although the Fed tried something similar in the 1960s. Essentially, the Fed hopes to drive down rates not by expanding its portfolio, as it has done twice in recent years, but by shifting its money into riskier long-term investments.”

WALL STREET responded to the move by the Federal Reserve:

• DOW down 283 to 11,124
• NASDAQ down 52
• S&P 500 down 35

WHAT WE MISSED ON TUESDAY- President Obama will travel to Mountain View, CA next week for the First Presidential LinkedIn Town Hall Meeting. Previously, the President has used YouTube, Facebook and Twitter as platforms to answer questions directly from Americans, online

CORRECTION FROM TUESDAY- In last night’s final item on the acquisition of social networking platform Ning, I misstated the terms of an earlier deal- that of MySpace. As an eagle-eyed reader pointed out: “NewsCorp sold MySpace for $35M (and it was actually plus a 5% stake in Specific Media). NewsCorps originally bought MySpace for $580M (although only $327M was attributed to MySpace as the $580M was for its parent company)”

RUMORS- Hewlett Packard may be considered Meg Whitman, the former Chief Executive of eBay- and 2010 California Republican Gubernatorial Candidate, as its next CEO

2012:

• A must-watch campaign video released online by the Perry Campaign today (already has nearly 35,000 YouTube views) depicts President Obama as “President Zero”- using Obama’s words, as a candidate and President, against him and overlaid with the recent news of no new jobs created in August and record poverty rates 
• A McClatchy/Marist Poll that everyone is talking about: Obama 49%/ Palin 44%
• Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson has cracked 1% in the polls and thus has claimed a spot in tomorrow night’s Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, sponsored by FOX News and Google, in Orlando. 

THREE THINGS TO WATCH in the debate, the third in as many weeks:

1/ The Romney attack on Perry. It was more difficult than expected last week because of a Tea Party audience. Will Romney come out swinging at Perry? Which issues he decides to attack on will show the areas he believes Perry remains vulnerable2/ Can any of the other 7 candidates break through what has been deemed a two-man race? Any signs of traction by a second or third tier candidate will attract a lot of attention. 3/ Which candidate will be the first to mention the $16 Muffin? 

FINALLY- Facebook unveiled significant changes to its platform today, a move that has sparked anxiety and angst among some users. According the Facebook, the changes come in order to make the News Feed- on the Home Page- continually interesting. “Now, News Feed will act more like your own personal newspaper. You won’t have to worry about missing important stuff. All your news will be in a single stream with the most interesting stories featured at the top,” Facebok’s Mark Tonkelowitz blogs. Among the other changes: a real-time ticker of friend updates on the right hand bar, a wider photo display (with higher resolutions) and faster photo upload times. 

AND COMING TOMORROW: Watch for Facebook Music to be announced