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The Evening Report for Thursday November 17

TOP STORY: Tonight, Congress has averted a potential government shutdown with the passage of a continuing appropriations bill for most of the federal government, and a spending package dubbed the “minibus” that funds five agencies for the rest of this year.

Earlier, the House voted 298-121 to approve the bill, with 101 Republicans breaking ranks with their party and voting against the bill. Tonight, the Senate voted 70-30 to send the bill to the President, with all Democrats voting in favor and most Republicans voting against.

Interestingly, with the President out of the country and the current continuing resolution lapsing at midnight, it is very likely that the bill Congress passed tonight, H.R. 2112, will be signed with an auto pen, only the second time in history when this procedure has been used (The previous time, earlier this year, occurred with the President was also out of the country and Congress passed a continuation of the USA PATRIOT Act).

The passage of tonight’s CR is a rare moment of bi-partisanship for a bitterly divided Congress, but there are no signs that the apparent goodwill will extend to the major issue Congress is considering: the Supercommittee’s deficit reduction charge.

POLITICO’s HEADLINE TONIGHT: “Supercommittee talks on brink of collapse.” From lead reporter Jake Sherman:

“Democrats appeared to be working on a new offer Thursday evening, but Republicans said they were not working on a fresh proposal. Staff level discussions were ongoing, aides said, but there was not much optimism.

With less than a week until the deadline, both parties appear ready to rally around their competing proposals — setting up a partisan showdown in the days before Thanksgiving.

Both proposals are like to fail in the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction Wednesday.”

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

All members of the Committee are scheduled to be in Washington this weekend though it is not clear if the full Committee will meet or if work will continue in smaller groups. It is also unclear at what point, if ever, Congressional leadership may be called in to break any impasse. The Committee now has less than one week, until Wednesday November 23rd, to produce its final proposal.

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL TODAY:

NEWT GINGRICH continued to face questions about his consulting contract with Freddie Mac. As Gingrich’s standing has risen in the poll numbers, so too has the media questions about his long record of public service, which conflicts with his campaign’s message of being a fresh face and not a creature of Washington.

HERMAN CAIN turned down an opportunity to meet with the editorial board of the New Hampshire Union-Leader today, an almost unheard of decision less than 60 days before the New Hampshire primary.

The paper’s endorsement is seen as one of the most coveted, and important, in the run up to the primary and Cain’s apparent dissing is not likely to go over well. Of course, Cain did not have a good experience earlier this week with the editorial board of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, when he gave a long and waffling answer on US military policy in Africa.

Cain did, however, find time to make a visit to New York City tonight to tape the Late Show with David Letterman.

As of today, Cain is also receiving Secret Service protection, the agency reported today.

As Mike Allen reports tonight:

“We are protecting Herman Cain,” Secret Service spokesman Ed Donovan said. He said the decision was made by Homeland Security “Secretary Napolitano, at the request of the Cain campaign and in consultation with the Congressional advisory committee.”

“The authority was given to the Service to protect Herman Cain [beginning] today,” Donovan said.

Asked about the decision to protect Cain about a year before the general election, Donovan said: “Historically, it’s not that unusual.” The Secret Service spokesman noted protection was granted to Jesse Jackson at a similar point during his two campaigns, to the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) in October 1979 and to a variety of candidates at a similar point in the 1976 cycle.

Donovan declined to say whether any threats prompted the decision to protect Cain, who at this point is the only candidate under protection other than President Barack Obama. “We don’t discuss the deliberations on which an assessment is made,” the spokesman said.”

WHITE HOUSE SHOOTING SUSPECT Oscar Ramiro Ortega-Hernandez was charged today by federal officials with attempting to assassinate the president or his staff, stemming from Friday night’s bullet exchange close to the White House that ended up reaching a glass window on the Truman Balcony. If convicted, he could face life in prison.

Meanwhile, new details are emerging about Ortega and his evidently makeshift plot, as The Washington Post reports,

“Authorities said Ortega was clad in black when he pulled his car within view of the White House on Friday night, fired shots and then sped away. The White House has not said whether the Obamas’ daughters, Sasha and Malia, were there at the time or commented on the shooting.

Ortega was questioned by police on Friday morning, before the shootings, just across the Potomac River from Washington in Arlington, Va. Police said they stopped him after a report of suspicious behavior, but let him go after photographing him because they had no reason to make an arrest.”

WALL STREET: After some traders were inconvenienced on their way into work today because of the Occupy Wall Street protests that declared today a day of mobilization, on the two month anniversary of the protests, anxiety from both Europe and Washington contributed to another down day. European stocks reported six-month lows today.

  • DOW down 135
  • NASDAQ down 52
  • S&P 500 down 21

SYRIA UPDATE: For a second day, Syrian Army defectors engaged in attacks on government buildings and other landmarks today, a striking demonstration of the sectarian strife now turning violent in a country that is at risk of descending into civil war.

As The New York Times reports:

“The attacks may have been more symbolic than effective, but could mark the increased ability of a growing number of defectors to publicize their exploits. Attacks on government installations — in the southern town of Dara’a and the central city of Homs, for instance — have been reported since the start of the uprising.

The attacks themselves paled before the bloodiest episodes of Syria’s last uprising in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Then, insurgents stormed the office of the Aleppo Artillery School, killing 32 cadets. It was unclear whether anyone was killed or wounded in these attacks, but the constituency of armed strikes and the bold choice of targets has heightened the profile of Syria’s armed insurgency.”

FINALLY: Demi Moore and  Ashton Kucher are getting divorced.

Today, Moore told the Associated Press, “As a woman, a mother and a wife, there are certain values and vows that I hold sacred, and it is in this spirit that I have chosen to move forward with my life,” indicating that the reason for the divorce was Kucher cheating on Moore with Sara Leal in Las Vegas earlier this year.

Tonight, Kucher tweeted, “I will forever cherish the time I spent with Demi. Marriage is one of the most difficult things in the world and unfortunately sometimes they fail. Love and Light, AK.”

THE EVENING REPORT will next publish on Monday November 21 after your editor returns from a Caribbean cruise.

The Evening Report for Wednesday November 16, 2011

TOP STORY: The Supercommittee: will they or won’t they reach a deal one week from today when they report back on their deficit reduction proposal, as they are required to by law?

There have been conflicting reports throughout the day today as to whether the Committee will come up short or will reach a bi-partisan agreement. Today, the Committee announced that they will hold a public “mark-up” session next week, which will be an opportunity for each of the 12 members of the bi-partisan, bicameral panel to make public statements to voice their opinions on different pieces of the legislation, before they cast a single up or down vote in the middle of next week.

As we get closer to the final deadline for the Supercommittee, smaller issues are going to become big deals. Here’s what National Journal reports tonight is the latest sticking point: health care.

“A dispute broke out between super-committee negotiators on Wednesday over whether other committees can cut health programs in a two-step deficit-reduction process.

The disagreement involved the panel’s possible two-step strategy, which would have committees with tax jurisdiction raising billions from an overhaul of the tax code next year.

Republicans insisted that the committees also have the authority to cut any programs under their jurisdiction, including Medicare and Medicaid. Democrats balked, saying that the second-step committee cuts could come from tax changes only.”

One of the most remarkable traits of the Supercommittee since it was formed in the summer has been its overall secrecy and the ability of its members to be tight-lipped regarding aspects of the negotiations.

Indeed, on a pretty regular basis, each week has seen two types of stories: that the Committee was deadlocked and no where close to reaching a minimal agreement, and that the Committee was going to shock Washington, and the political system as a whole, by “going big” and producing a large deficit reduction grand bargain.

Still tonight, we don’t know which way the Committee is trending as there have been mixed signals for the past several days.

Here’s how POLITICO’s Jake Sherman & Manu Raju wrap up the Supercommittee’s day

“In sum, all the maneuvering seemed to paint a picture of confusion, panic and blame-passing as Congress with approval ratings in the gutter attempts to patch up yet another fiscal mess.

On a day when the national debt surpassed $15 trillion, the six Democrats and six Republicans on the supercommittee met separately in tense closed-door meetings and strategized with congressional leaders. In phone calls and personal meetings, Republicans discussed proposals old and new a half-dozen times — and each side struggled to coalesce around plans that could pass bipartisan muster, or be used to maximize political cover.”

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL TODAY

“Can you believe that? That’s what our president thinks is wrong with America? That Americans are lazy? That’s pathetic.” - Rick Perry

“Sometimes, I just don’t think that President Obama understands America.” - Mitt Romney

These quotes from the Republican presidential candidates come after President Obama was asked a question about foreign investment in the United States at the APEC Summit in Hawaii over the weekend. Here’s what he said:

“I think it’s important to remember that the United States is still the largest recipient of foreign investment in the world. And there are a lot of things that make foreign investors see the U.S. as a great opportunity: our stability, our openness, our innovative free-market culture. But we’ve been a little bit lazy, I think, over the last couple of decades. We’ve kind of taken for granted — well, people will want to come here, and we aren’t out there hungry, selling America and trying to attract new business into America.”

To be fair to the President, his Republican rivals are taking his remark squarely out of context. The President was speaking to a group of business executives and was not referring to the American people specifically. However, the quote is likely to find its way, explicitly or subliminally, into the Republican strategy throughout 2012.

WHITE HOUSE SHOOTING INVESTIGATION: Police in Pennsylvania today arrested a 21 year-old man, Oscar Ramiro Ortega-Hernandez, who is suspected of firing an AK-47 assault rifle in close proximity to the White House late Friday evening.

Yesterday, the Secret Service announced that they had found shell casings and believe that a bullet had grazed a window on the upper level of The White House but they had not yet drawn a definitive link back to Hernandez, who is wanted in Friday’s incident.

As the Washington Post reports:

“Ortega-Hernandez fired shots with an AK-47-style assault rifle about 9:30 p.m. Friday — his 21st birthday — while in a car at 16th Street and Constitution Avenue, police said.

Minutes later, Ortega-Hernandez abandoned the car a short distance away, in the 2300 block of Constitution Avenue, and ran away, police said. They said they found the rifle and an undisclosed number of spent shell casings in the car.”

As for the bullet that was found on the White House property:

“For several days after the shooting, police said they had not found bullet-related damage to structures in the area. On Tuesday morning, however, authorities discovered at least one bullet hole in a window on the side of the White House facing the Ellipse and the Washington Monument, according to the Secret Service.

The bullet had pierced the “historic exterior glass” of the window but was stopped by ballistic glass installed behind the normal glass. “One additional round has been found on the exterior of the White House,” the Secret Service said in a statement.

The official familiar with the investigation said FBI ballistics examiners will seek to determine whether the bullets came from the assault rifle found in the car that Ortega-Hernandez abandoned.

The Secret Service said the damage “has not been conclusively connected to Friday’s incident, and an assessment of the exterior of the White House is ongoing.”

President Obama was not at The White House on Friday and is now in Australia, as part of an Asian-Pacific tour. Today the President announced that 250 Marines will begin to form a US military base in Australia next year, and 2,500 troops will be stationed in the region by 2013.

WALL STREET: In the final hour of trading on Wall Street today, the ratings agency Fitch delivered a report on US bank exposure to Europe that sent the markets sharply lower. The report said, “unless the euro zone debt crisis is resolved in a timely and orderly manner, the broad credit outlook for the U.S. banking industry could worsen.”

  • DOW down 191
  • NASDAQ down 47
  • S&P 500 down 21

ALL EYES ON SYRIA: Violence has intensified in Syria, the worst in the nearly seven months of consistent protest against the government of Bashar Assad, in the last 48-hours and all eyes are now on the region. The question everyone is asking is, “Is Syria next?” meaning the next nation to force its leader from power in the year-long Arab awakening.

Today the Arab League, which voted to kick Syria out over the weekend, issued a deadline for the Syrian government to end its oppression against its people in three days. It is not immediately clear what consequences may come as a result of that order. Many observers, however, say that the situation in Syria is much different that Libya or Egypt- namely that Assad has a greater chance of being toppled from within. 

Here’s analysis from the BBC’s Jon Leyne in Damascus:

“As diplomatic pressure increases on Damascus, the situation on the ground is deteriorating as well.

Last night, soldiers who defected from the Syrian army mounted an attack on an intelligence base north of Damascus. It was the most significant attack so far by defectors and was remarkable for being against such a high-profile target so close to the capital.

More and more clashes are being reported between the regular army and opponents who now call themselves the Free Syrian Army.

That raises the spectre of this turning into a full-scale civil war. “

FINALLY...today Google announced its latest product, a large-scale entry into an already crowded market, with Google Music, at music.google.com. The launch of the Google Music Store, with easy download and integration with the Android platform, sets Google up as a competitor to Apple, which owns the iTunes Music Store which easily syncs with the iPhone and other Apple devices.

From the Associated Press,

“The desktop service is available to all users in the United States right now at music.google.com. The Google Music Android app should be available for all Android smartphones and tablets in the coming days for everyone with Android 2.2 and above. There was no mention of iOS devices like iPhones or iPads, though Google did note that the desktop Google Music Manager is available on Windows, Mac and Linux computers. (Beware, however, as the Google Music Beta was heavily criticized as taking weeks to upload a library worth of songs.)

Google also opened up a Google Music store, similar to iTunes, which the company says will be driven by musical recommendations. There are two kind of recommendations up front in the store: First, recommendations from Google’s “music geeks” about what’s hot on the music scene; and second, a machine-listening recommendation engine, which analyzes your entire collection and suggests which songs and albums the user may enjoy. The Android Market’s new music store is already open.”

The Evening Report for Tuesday November 15, 2011

TOP STORY: Zuccotti Park in New York City’s Lower Manhattan is open again at this hour, per a court order, after being cleared and closed by the New York City Police Department in an early morning raid.

Zuccotti is considered the birthplace of the “Occupy” movement, which began two months ago this week under the name “Occupy Wall Street” and has grown to encompass cities across the United States- including Washington, DC, Portland, Ore. and Oakland, Calif.- and the world.

Shortly after 1am, Mayor Michael Bloomberg gave the order to clear the park. Over 150 people were arrested and the operation concluded before daybreak. The Mayor’s office released a lengthy statement just before 7am and Bloomberg appeared on camera just after 8am. Throughout the day, lawyers for the city and the protestors have battled in court over when and in what manner protestors should be allowed to return to the park.

This evening, the New York State Supreme Court sided with the city and said that protestors are allowed to return to the park but may be prohibited from carrying tents inside, thus making it impossible to replicate the conditions that have come to define Occupy Wall Street over the last eight weeks. Tonight, there are reports that over 750 people have crowded- standing- into the park.

The New York Times has a compelling account of the carefully planned police operation, including below:

“Officials had prepared by watching how occupations in other cities played out. A major disaster drill was held on Randalls Island, with an eye toward Zuccotti. Officials increased so-called disorder training — counterterrorism measures that involve moving large numbers of police officers quickly — to focus on Lower Manhattan.”

“The last training session was on Monday night, on the Manhattan side of the East River. The orders to move into the park came down at the “last minute,” said someone familiar with the orders, which referred to the assignment only as “an exercise.”

“The operation on Tuesday involved officers from various police units, including boroughwide task forces — scores of mobile officers who are usually used to flood high-crime neighborhoods.”

“Emergency Service Unit trucks with klieg lights and loudspeakers gathered at Pike Slip and the Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive, near the Manhattan Bridge, before moving out. The lights and prerecorded messages booming from the loudspeakers seemed to cow many protesters. As the community affairs officers moved into the park in their light-blue windbreakers, many protesters simply gathered their belongings and left.”

“No tents were touched until 1:45 a.m., the police said, giving the protesters time to gather their belongings. Other teams of officers were seen gathering on the perimeter to move in if arrests were needed in the park.”

“As the police moved west through the dense tangle of protesters’ personal belongings, including luggage and plastic lawn and leaf bags stuffed with clothing, crews from the Sanitation Department followed, scooping up what was left behind.”

“No arrests were made in the park until about 3:30 a.m., Mr. Kelly said. The clearing operation was complete about 75 minutes later, the police said.”

“…About 142 people were arrested in the park. Most of the arrests were for “disorderly conduct and resisting arrest.”

THE WASHINGTON POST now has a countdown clock on its homepage until the time when the Congressional Supercommittee is charged with reaching a minimum $1.2 trillion deficit reduction agreement. 8 days remain.

A BLOOMBERG POLL released this morning finds a statistical four-way tie in the Iowa Caucuses (now just six weeks away). As we mentioned last night, this poll is the latest to suggest that NEWT GINGRICH has improbably revived a struggling campaign to within striking distance of front-runner status.

Of course, Gingrich is just the latest candidate to claim this mantle in the 2012 race. Recall that frontrunners thus far have included Donald Trump, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain and, now, Newt Gingrich.

The Bloomberg Iowa Poll:

  • Cain 20%
  • Paul 19%
  • Romney 18%
  • Gingrich 17%
  • Perry 7%
  • Bachmann 5%
  • Santorum 3%
  • Huntsman 1%

REAL CLEAR POLITICS provides an average of all recent polling data. Mitt Romney still leads the field, but only by 0.7 points, over Herman Cain. Gingrich is strongly in third place and, Perry is struggling to prevent falling in the abyss of lower-tier candidates.

  • Romney 22%
  • Cain 21.3%
  • Gingrich 17.6%
  • Perry 9.9%
  • Paul 7.3%
  • Bachmann 4.1%
  • Santorum 1.9%
  • Huntsman 1.3%

WALL STREET:

  • Dow up 17 to 12,096
  • Nasdaq up 28 to 2,686
  • S&P 500 up 6 to 1,258

APPLE today named Arthur Levinson, who is chairman of the pharmaceuticals company Genentech Inc, as its new board chairman. The chairman’s position was one created for (and by) Steve Jobs when he stepped aside as CEO in August of this year. The Board also named Rober Iger, who is President and CEO of Disney, as a director. Tim Cook remains Apple’s CEO.

GIFFORDS: In his new book published this week, Mark Kelly, the astronaut husband of Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, openly blasts Speaker of the House John Boehner who, Kelly says, has only sent a single get-well card in the 11 months since the shooting and did not visit Giffords when he was in Houston in April to attend a NCAA college basketball game.

As The Hill reported this afternoon, Kelly writes in the book, “Considering that she was a member of Congress and he was the highest-ranking member, we thought he’d ask to visit Gabby or at least give a call to see how she was doing. Our only contact with him had been a simple get-well card he’d sent a few days after Gabby was injured.”

Kelly and Giffords sat for their first television interview last night on 20/20 with Diane Sawyer.

CBS: After a first report by Brian Stelter in Monday’s New York Times, CBS News announced today that they are completely revamping the morning program The Early Show, which is set to relaunch on January 09.

The new program- which will go by a new name- will be co-hosted by late night PBS staple and veteran journalist Charlie Rose and Gayle King, a former Connecticut local news anchor who went on to work with her best friend, Oprah Winfrey, on her daytime talk show.

King will co-host the second hour of the 7-9am program with Rose, and Rose will co-host the first hour with current co-host Erica Hill. Under new management, CBS is attempting to refocus the morning program, which as been chronically stuck in third place in the ratings, with a more “hard news” format, while also keeping it conversational. Chris Licht, the former Executive Producer of MSNBC’s Morning Joe, is now the EP of the new CBS morning broadcast.

FINALLY: Duke’ men’s basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski tonight set a new record for wins as a Division One coach, with a 74-69 win over Michigan State. It was Krzyzewski’s 903rd victory. His lifetime record is now 903-284, including four national championships. He surpasses former Indiana & Texas Tech head coach Bob Knight, who has held the record since 2008.

The Evening Report for Monday November 14, 2011

HAPPENING NOW: On NBC, the first interview with Former Penn State Assistant Football Coach Gary Sandusky- who agreed to a brief telephone interview with Bob Costas today. The full interview is airing on Rock Center with Brian Williams tonight.

From the conversation:

Sandusky: “I say that I am innocent of those charges.”

Costas: “Are you a pedophile?” 

Sandusky: “No.”

Sandusky: “I could say that I have done some of those things. I have horsed around with kids I have showered after workouts. I have hugged them and I have touched their legs without intent of sexual contact.”

“I shouldn’t have showered with those kids.”

“I enjoy being around children. I enjoy their enthusiasm. I just have a good time with them”

HAPPENING NOW: On ABC, the first interview with Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and her husband, astronaut Mark Kelly. The interview, with ABC’s Diane Sawyer, is airing on a special edition of 20/20 tonight. From the interview:

Sawyer: “How do you feel?”

Giffords: “Pretty good.”

Sawyer: “Is it painful?”

Giffords: “It’s difficult, difficult.”

The special will also contain home videos that Mark Kelly made through Gifford’s recovery which show her soon after the shooting at the hospital, and during rehabilitation and speech therapy.

TOP STORY: The Supreme Court of the United States today agreed to hear oral arguments on cases challenging the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act, President Obama’s signature domestic policy achievement.

With its decision today, the Court is setting itself up to inject its ruling, which could come in the summer of 2012, in the midst of a highly charged political season. Its decision, whether to uphold or strike down the constitutionality of the Act’s individual mandate provision will become a major decision point for voters in the final months of the election. However, there is a possibility that the Court could punt in its ruling and decline to issue a definitive yes or no to the constitutionality question.

NPR’s Nina Totenberg described the Court’s decision today in a report on the broadcast All Things Considered:

“In an apparent effort to be as comprehensive as possible, the court certified four questions for review. First, and most important: Did Congress exceed its constitutional authority in requiring virtually all Americans to have basic health care coverage?

The second: If the individual mandate is unconstitutional, does the rest of the law stand? Even the government now says there would be no way to provide the goodies everyone likes in this law without the expanded pool of people paying into the system.

The third question: Does the law impose unconstitutional conditions on the states by requiring them to pay 5 percent more into Medicaid by 2017 to cover the increased number of people under the program?

And the last question: Is it is premature to decide the first three?”

As if to underline the significance of the case, the court allocated 5 1/2 hours for oral argument, the longest argument in modern times.

Were the court to invalidate the statute in its entirety, it would roll back many of the provisions already benefiting millions of Americans.

FOR BRET- a soon-to-be lawyer…

“The length of the oral argument set by the court for the health care challenge is a recognition of the case’s importance. At 5 1/2 hours, the argument will be the longest in more than 45 years.

Time set aside for argument has changed markedly over the course of American legal history. Before 1849, there was no time limit at all, and counsel would often go on for days. In 1849, the increased caseload caused the justices to set a two-hour limit per side, which was reduced to one hour in 1925, and a half-hour per side in 1970, which is where it remains for most cases today.

But big cases, with many parties and complexities, sometimes get more time. The 1974 Nixon tapes case lasted three hours. Bush v. Gore went 90 minutes. The 1971 Pentagon Papers took two hours; the challenge to the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law in 2003 was four hours.”

DRIVING THE 2012 CAMPAIGN TONIGHT- “Rambling Cain has an ‘Oops’ Moment” by Alexander Burns in POLITICO.

Today, Herman Cain gave an editorial board interview to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, but he gave less than a clear answer on his opinion on the US military operation in Libya. From the transcript:

“OK, Libya. President Obama supported the uprising, correct? President Obama called for the removal of Qadhafi. Just want to make sure we’re talking about the same thing before I say, ‘yes I agree,’ or ‘no I didn’t agree.’ I do not agree with the way he handled it for the following reason – nope, that’s a different one. I gotta go back to, see … Got all this stuff twirling around in my head. Specifically, what are you asking me, did I agree or not disagree with Obama on?”

AND THEN [After the question- on whether Cain supported Pres. Obama’s decision to intervene in Libya-was rephrased and asked again]…

“Here’s what I would have – I would have done a better job of determining who the opposition is and I’m sure that our intelligence people have some of that information. Based upon who made up that opposition, OK, based upon who made up that opposition, might have caused me to make some different decisions about how we participated.

“Secondly, no, I did not agree with Qadhafi killing his citizens. Absolutely not. So something would have had to been – I would have supported many of the things they did in order to help stop that. It’s not a simple yes-no, because there are different pieces and I would have gone about assessing the situation differently, which might have caused us to end up in the same place. But where I think more could have been done was, what’s the nature of the opposition?”

It’s a rambling response, for sure. Watch the full video:

THE LATEST POLLS- out today-

POLITICO/Battleground States:

  • Cain 27%
  • Romney 25%
  • Gingrich 14%
  • Perry 14%
  • Paul 5%
  • Santorum 2%
  • Bachmann 2%

OBAMA 41%, GENERIC REPUBLICAN, 41%, Undecided 13%

CNN Poll (with difference from October):

  • Romney 24% (-2%)
  • Gingrich 22% (+14%)
  • Cain 14% (-11%)
  • Perry 12% (-1%)
  • Paul 8% (-1%)
  • Bachmann 6% (-)
  • Huntsman 3% (+2%)
  • Santorum 3% (+1%)

The big story coming out of the CNN poll is the surge in support for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has now eclipsed Herman Cain and is statistically-tied with Mitt Romney for front-runner status.

WALL STREET

  • Dow down 75
  • Nasdaq down 22
  • S&P 500 down 12

DRIVING WASHINGTON TONIGHT: “Supercommittee could punt on tough calls” as Manu Raju & Jake Sherman write tonight in POLITICO

“There’s increasing talk of punting some of the toughest issues to the congressional committees charged with doing this job in the first place. That could mean giving the House Ways and Means and Senate Finance panels an order to come up with a specific amount of savings and a broad directive to rewrite the Tax Code.

This potential abdication of power from a special committee that was granted sweeping authority to tackle the staggering deficit shows just how badly gridlocked Congress remains.

To some, it sounds like the supercommittee is trying to figure out how to maximize political cover if it fails — a far cry from the mandate to achieve major deficit reductions where the rest of Congress has fallen short.

PRESIDENT OBAMA departs Hawaii in a few hours en route to Australia, where he will be on a State Visit as part of a 9-day Asian-Pacific tour

FINALLY…Brad Pitt today announced that he would be retiring from acting when he turns 50, in 3 years. In an interview with an Australian news program, Pitt hinted at what may be next:

“I am really enjoying the producing side and development of stories and putting those pieces together … getting stories to the plate that might have had a tougher time otherwise.

“You know, I don’t know that we’re finished” adopting or conceiving more tots with Angelina Jolie. “Those late nights are so fun when one of them’s up or those mornings when they get up and make pancakes or something. That’s what it’s about.”

The Evening Report for Tuesday November 01


Tuesday November 01, 2011

TOP STORY: Bank of America today reversed its previous decision and said that it will not go forward with a planned $5 monthly fee on debit cards. After public outcry- extending to the ongoing Occupy Wall Street demonstrations in New York and around the county- and an online petition that acquired over 300,000 signatories- the Bank bowed to criticism. Initially, Bank of America blamed the need for the bank fee on the Dodd Frank financial regulatory reform legislation, passed last year, and a signature achievement of President Obama’s first term. Today, the Bank said that a changing industry environment prompted it to reverse course.

STATEMENT FROM BANK OF AMERICA: “We have listened to our customers very closely over the last few weeks and recognize their concern with our proposed debit usage fee,” said David Darnell, co-chief operating officer. “Our customers’ voices are most important to us. As a result, we are not currently charging the fee and will not be moving forward with any additional plans to do so.”

GREECE: Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou gave conflicting signs today on whether or not he will move forward with a referendum on the European Union’s bailout package that was initially brokered last week- and that will be the subject of EU and G-20 meetings later this week. Yesterday, the Prime Minister said that he would go forward with the planned national referendum- which is unlikely to succeed given large public resentment and ongoing protests in the streets of Athens. According to the BBC, Papandreou said that he “has a clear mandate” to hold the referendum. However, French President Nicolas Sarkozy today said that the announcement “surprised all of Europe.” As a result of the uncertainty, worldwide financial markets have been lower over the past two days.

UPDATE: The Associated Press reports tonight that Greece’s Cabinet has concluded a marathon meeting and decided to back the Prime Minister in his call for a national referendum on the European bailout package.

  • DOW down 297
  • NASDAQ down 77
  • S&P 500 down 35

QUOTABLE: “This brings all of the concerns about Europe back to the front burner,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James. “If this ends up turning into a financial catastrophe in Europe, then no one will escape it,” in an article tonight published in the Washington Post

SUPERCOMMITTEE: The Joint Congressional Committee on Deficit Reduction today held its latest public hearing- potentially the last time the committee will open its doors to the public and the media before a November 23rd deadline to report back a proposal to reduce the national deficit by at least $1.2 trillion.

“We are now entering the critical final phase of this process,” said Committee co-chairwoman Patty Murray today. Today’s news were reports that the Supercommittee may be considering reforms of Social Security in its proposal- previously the “third rail” of politics was thought to be outside of the committee’s consideration. Media reports have gone back and forth in recent weeks as to how successful the Supercommittee might be, but today there are several reports, encouraged by a speech House Speaker John Boehner gave last night, that the Committee may still “go large”- maybe picking up where the President and the Speaker left off in their negotiations over the summer.

612,000 : that’s the number of residents in Connecticut who are without power tonight, three days after an unusual October snow storm dumped over two feet of snow in some places. Connecticut Light and Power, the primary utility company in the state, has still not given estimated restoration times for over half of the towns in the state and has only improved the number of outages by 200,000 in the past three days, prompting outrage by the State’s governor and other elected officials. Of the remaining power outages from the weekend storm, Connecticut has more than any other state. The utility says it still may be until Sunday night- a full week after the storm- until all customers have power restored. Many school districts have gone ahead and canceled all classes for the balance of the week- the second time they have had to do so this year (the first week of school was delayed from many jurisdictions because of power outages stemming from damage caused by Hurricane Irene).

MICHAEL JACKSON TRIAL: In the manslaughter trial of Conrad Murray, Michael Jackson’s personal physician who faces charges of giving the pop start a lethal dose of the anaesthetic drug propofol in his home before he died in 2009, the defense today called its final witness and announced that Murray will not take the stand in his own defense. The defense could rests its case by the end of the week.

MINIBUS: The Senate today passed a “minibus” bill that funds give cabinet agencies for the fiscal year that began on September 30th. The minibus procedure might be the way forward for the remaining annual appropriations bills- mandatory legislation that funds the government- as House Republicans (especially Tea Party members) object to a single large-scale appropriations bill, which in recent years has become a favored procedure for Congresses under both Republican and Democratic control. The vote on today’s bill, funding the Departments of Transportation, Housing and Urban Development and NASA and the FBI, at a cost of $182 billion, was 69-30, a rare bi-partisan vote in the Senate.

FROM PLAYBOOK: Readers of the EVENING REPORT know that we find our inspiration from the daily newsletter produced by POLITICO Chief White House Correspondent Mike Allen. We like to think of ourselves as an early version of Playbook [indeed, in this morning’s edition, Allen used a quote from Alexander Burn’s story on Herman Cain that we also used in last evening’s REPORT]. But tonight, we give full credit to Allen and pull a fascinating segment from this morning’s PLAYBOOK. Today, the White House welcomed local news reporters from around the country to The White House- giving them extraordinary access for local network affiliates and brief interviews with President Obama. We found it interesting- and thought our readers would like it as well.

“LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE” TAKES LOCAL ANCHORS BEHIND SCENES: Anchors from nine local TV stations will spend today at the White House, meeting top officials and getting brief individual interviews with President Obama before broadcasting sweeps-month evening newscasts from the South Lawn. It’s a 21st-century update to the old “radio row,” which let talk-show hosts to broadcast from the White House, with West Wing officials going from microphone to microphone during drive-time shows. The White House is building risers on the South Lawn for the evening newscasts, which are being spread out by time zones - three from the East, two from Central, one from Mountain and two from Pacific. Each station will run cable from the riser to its network’s fiber line in the Rose Garden. Each anchor will get to ask Jay Carney a question during the briefing; have lunch with David Plouffe; interview a White House staffer from the station’s home market; get an on-camera tour with a White House curator; and tour the kitchen garden with Assistant Chef Sam Kass.

Participants are from Portland, Ore. (KGW, NBC, Tracy Barr); Phoenix (KSAZ, Fox, John Hook); Denver (KUSA, NBC, Adele Arakawa); Minneapolis (WCCO, CBS, Amelia Santaniello); Houston (KTRK, ABC, Dave Ward); Omaha (KETV, ABC, Rob McCartney); Tampa (WTVT, Fox, Mark Wilson); Hampton Roads (WAVY, NBC, Tom Schaad); and Philadelphia (WPVI, ABC, Brian Taff). A 10th participant will be Nikole Killion, representing Hearst stations, including WMUR in Manchester, N.H.

The ringmaster is Deputy White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest , who said the mission is “to increase interest and raise the profile of the president’s efforts to strengthen the economy and create jobs in local communities across the country, and explain to Americans how their communities will benefit from the president’s agenda. … The highlight of the day will be an opportunity to briefly interview the President from the Cabinet Room about the American Jobs Act … The anchors will also interview Cabinet secretaries … about how the bipartisan proposals included in the president’s American Jobs Act would create jobs in their community and put money in the pocket of every single American worker and small business owner.”

FINALLY: Google announced a redesigned look for GMail today, highlighting on its blog the new features, including: “streamlined conversation, elastic density, new customized themes in high definition, smarter navigation, and better search. As Erick Schonfeld reviews on TechCrunch today, “Messages aren’t as bunched up as before and easier to read. Adding a social element, Google is adding profile pictures beside each message, and the labels pop out more. The density of the text also adjusts depending on your screen size and resolution, making it easier on the eyes. The new design is in line with some of the changes Google just made to Google Reader in terms of spacing and overall feel.” Check it out!

The Evening Report for Sunday October 30

BREAKINGPOLITICO top story ”Exclusive—Two Women Accuse Herman Cain of Inappropriate Behavior”: 

“During Herman Cain’s tenure as the head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s, at least two female employees complained to colleagues and senior association officials about inappropriate behavior by Cain, ultimately leaving their jobs at the trade group, multiple sources confirm to POLITICO.”

“The women complained of sexually suggestive behavior by Cain that made them angry and uncomfortable, the sources said, and they signed agreements with the restaurant group that gave them financial payouts to leave the association. The agreements also included language that bars the women from talking about their departures.”

Cain was asked about the allegations after an interview on CBS’s Face The Nation this morning. 

“Have you ever been accused, sir, in your life of harassment by a woman?” a POLITICO reporter asked.

“He breathed audibly, glared at the reporter and stayed silent for several seconds. After the question was repeated three times, he responded by asking the reporter, “Have you ever been accused of sexual harassment?”

INSTANT ANALYSIS: Herman Cain is currently the Republican presidential frontrunner- but is running on a makeshift campaign that has never before competed on the national stage. Watch to see how much traction this story gets, now that POLITICO has decided to run with it after 10 days of reporting. Then watch to see how the Cain campaign responds- and how fellow Republican campaigns handle the story. This could be the beginning of the end of the Cain surge- or it could just be a below-the-fold story that he is able to weather (much like the increased scrutiny of his 9-9-9 plan in October)

HAPPENING TONIGHT: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is holding a dinner at Gracie Mansion with key senators and business and labor leaders, who are brainstorming a strategy to urge the Congressional Supercommittee to “go big” and consider a “grand bargain” in its final report 24 days from tomorrow. According to a National Journal report on Friday, the dinner includes Senators Michael Bennet, Mark Warner and Bob Corker. Only 10-20 people are expected at the dinner. As the House returns this week, and the Supercommittee holds its next public hearing, attention will turn to the panel’s final weeks of negotiations.

TOPPING THE WEEKEND: Last night, the Des Monies Register released their latest 2012 caucus poll. This vaunted survey is a tradition in Iowa politics and is usually an accurate bellwether of where the race stands. Last night’s results continued a trend from other national surveys last week- showing businessman Herman Cain continuing to post impressive leads. Cain is in a statistical (the margin of error was +/- 4.9%) dead heat with Mitt Romney. That is an impressive showing for Romney, who has gone back and forth for months about how many resources to commit to Iowa. (He has made just three visits to Iowa this year). With these results, Romney has little choice but to make a showing- the poll indicates he can win. Finally, the poll shows the weakness that Rick Perry is having connecting with voters. The conventional wisdom is that Perry is challenging Romney for the nomination- but this survey is just the latest to indicate that is really not the case.

  • CAIN 23% 
  • ROMNEY 22%
  • PAUL 12%
  • BACHMANN 8%
  • GINGRICH 7%
  • PERRY 7%
  • SANTORUM 5%
  • HUNTSMAN 1%

TOP TALKER TOMORROWWashington Post- ”Hillary’s War: Clinton credited with key role in success of NATO airstrikes, Libyan rebels” it includes reporting chronicling the US decision to intervene in Libya beginning in March. A selection:

“In Washington and in Europe, the word “stalemate” began to creep into opinion columns as lawmakers, skeptical of U.S. policy in Libya, began threatening to block funds for military operations there. Meanwhile, a cash crunch also loomed for the rebels, who were unable to sell oil and were legally blocked from tapping into Gaddafi’s overseas bank accounts. By early July, they had run out of money for weapons, food and other critical supplies.”

“Clinton, ignoring the advice of the State Department’s lawyers, convinced Obama to grant full diplomatic recognition to the rebels, a move that allowed the Libyans access to billions of dollars from Gaddafi’s frozen accounts. At a meeting in Istanbul on July 15, she pressed 30 other Western and Arab governments to make the same declaration.”

WINTER STORM AFTERMATH: A rare October snowstorm brought over 2 feet of snow to some areas of Connecticut and Western Massachusetts over the weekend and caused extensive damage to the region’s power infrastructure. Connecticut Light and Power- the primary utility company in the state- reported the most number of outages at one time in the company’s history- at one point surpassing 884,000 customers. 

Tonight, roughly 750,000 customers remain without power- and it could be a week before some of the hardest hit areas have power restored. This storm comes just weeks after Hurricane Irene brought damage to the same region. Both events are historic and extremely rare- a tropical system and an October heavy snow storm. Connecticut Governor Dan Malloy joined Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick in declaring a State of Emergency on Saturday and requested federal assistance.

In Coventry, Connecticut, local officials are advising residents to postpone Halloween trick-or-treating until FRIDAY due to unsafe road conditions and concern of the danger from downed trees and power lines. The Governor said today that decisions on Halloween activities will be left to municipalities on a case by case basis.

AT THE BOX OFFICE this weekend

1. Puss In Boots- $34 million
2. Paranormal Activity 3- $18.5 million
3. In Time- $12 million

THE PRESIDENT’S WEEK AHEAD:

Monday- meets with Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair
Tuesday & Wednesday- meetings at the White House
Thursday & Friday- in Cannes, France for the G-20 Summit
Friday- returns to the White House

ABOUT THE G-20: The G-20 was established in the wake of the 1997 Asian financial crisis and has held yearly meetings since its formation in 1999. This year, the Group of 20 industrialized nations will again deal with a serious financial crisis- in Europe- that threatens to outrank both the 1997 and 2008 crises. As a result of the 2008 financial crisis, full meetings with heads of states of the member nations began- and were held semi-annually for two years (2009 & 2010) and will be held annually beginning this year.

19 countries and a representative of the European Union make up the G-20. They are:

  1. Argentina
  2. Australia
  3. Brazil
  4. Canada
  5. China
  6. European Union
  7. France
  8. Germany
  9. India
  10. Indonesia
  11. Italy
  12. Japan
  13. Mexico
  14. Russia
  15. Saudi Arabia
  16. South Africa
  17. Republic of Korea
  18. Turkey
  19. United Kingdom
  20. United States of America

RECENT G-20 SUMMITS:

2010- Seoul, South Korea & Toronto, Canada
2009- Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US & London, UK
2008- Washington, DC, US

THREE THINGS TO WATCH FOR IN THE WEEK AHEAD:

1/ The Cain Story. How will POLITICO’s reporting this Sunday night of sexual harassment allegations against the Republican presidential frontrunner effect the state of the race? The first indication of staying power will be if other news organizations pick up on POLITICO’s reporting where it left off. There are still more questions than there are answers as to exactly how serious these allegations are, or how credible the sources are.

2/ The Supercommittee. As the calendar turns to November, all eyes in Washington will be on the Joint Congressional Committee on Deficit Reduction- a panel of 12 members of Congress that has the potential to be one of the largest political stories of the year- or one of the biggest let-downs. Watch the Committee’s latest public hearing this week for any indication as to if they are close to consensus. Also, continue to watch for any leaks from a panel that has been remarkably tight-lipped to date.

3/ Jobs and the Economy. Friday brings the latest employment report as the Labor Department offers a snapshot of the October employment picture. That will drive the end of the week on Wall Street. In the mean time, watch to see if the markets continue their gains from this past week and month. External events- the European debt negotiations, the G-20 Summit, and the Supercommittee negotiations, will also continue to drive the markets.

The Evening Report for Wednesday October 26

TOP STORY: Progress has been made in the Eurozone debt crisis negotiations ongoing in Brussels. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has endorsed a proposal that would ask banks within the 27-member European Union to raise approximately $150 billion as a “buffer” against expected losses. 

Negotiations are continuing on other aspects of the financial proposal, including the fate of the bankrupt nation of Greece. As the BBC reports from Brussels tonight, “There are fears the Greek debt crisis could spread to Italy and Spain. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there remained “many problems to settle”. As she arrived in Brussels on Wednesday, she said: “The world is watching Germany and Europe. They are looking to see if we are ready and able to assume our responsibilities during Europe’s worst crisis since the end of World War II.”But according to draft summit conclusions there are still plenty of details to pin down.”

On WALL STREET today:

  • DOW up 162
  • NASDAQ up 12
  • S&P 500 up 13

SUPERCOMMITTEE: Senate Democrats today announced a proposal for the Joint Congressional Committee on Deficit Reduction to pick up where the President and Speaker Boehner left off in their summer negotiations over a “grand bargain,” urging the Committee to adopt a $3 trillion package of deficit reduction when it reports back one month from now. The President and Speaker were negotiating a $4 trillion grand bargain and $1 trillion in deficit reduction was adopted in the eventual bill that raised the debt ceiling in August. 

But the 1:1 proposal- where increases in revenue (taxes) would equal reductions in spending, faces near insurmountable opposition from Republicans, including those on the Committee. As Lori Montgomery reports tonight in the Washington Post, “So far, the response from the GOP has not been favorable. Although they declined to comment publicly on the offer, Republican aides privately dismissed the tax and stimulus pieces as unacceptable.Republicans also questioned the timing of the offer, which comes nearly two months after the talks began, and suggested that Democrats may be trying to paint themselves as reasonable negotiators, knowing full well that the offer would not fly with the GOP.”

2012: Rick Perry becomes the first candidate with paid television advertising in the 2012 presidential campaign. Perry is up on the air with an ad-buy in Iowa today. In it, he begins by pledging to create 2.5 million new jobs as president. “And I know something about that,” he says. 

Note: this video clip (via POLITICO) is as the ad appeared on KCCI in Des Moines (forward to 1:44 to see the short Perry ad).

WEDNESDAY IS POLL DAY:

FOX NEWS

Cain 24%
Romney 20%
Gingrich 12%
Perry 10%
Paul 9%
Santorum 3%
Bachmann 3%
Huntsman 0%

CNN/TIME EARLY STATE POLLS:

IOWA

Romney 24%
Cain 21%
Paul 12%
Gingrich 10%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 6%
Santorum 2%
Huntsman 1%

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Romney 40%
Cain 13%
Paul 12%
Huntsman 6%
Gingrich 5%
Perry 4%

SOUTH CAROLINA

Romney 25%
Cain 23%
Paul 12%
Perry 11%
Gingrich 8%
Bachmann 4%
Santorum 1%
Huntsman 1%

FLORIDA

Romney 30%
Cain 18%
Gingrich 9%
Perry 9%
Paul 6%
Bachmann 4%
Huntsman 2%
Santorum 1%

Some observations on today’s set of polling data:

—>Romney’s lead in Iowa is impressive considering he has not actively campaigned in the state- he was in Iowa last Thursday, but then announced that he would not be participating in a key Republican party dinner next month

—>For being a supposed top-tier national fundraiser, Perry’s poll results in the early Republican states is very weak

—>Very important to remember that Mitt Romney is leading in all of the early Republican states. Although the margin between Romney and the second-tier candidate in the states varies, it shows his strength now as a formidable front-runner

—>The key to remember from all of these polls from CNN Polling Director Keating Holland: “But the surveys indicate that many Republican voters are still far from decided. Only about a third of all respondents in the surveys say their minds are made up,” he said.

FINALLY…a British coroner announced today the official cause of death for singer Amy Winehouse in July: alcohol overdose. “That was the ruling of a coroner’s inquest into the death of the Grammy-winning soul singer, who died with empty vodka bottles in her room and lethal amounts of alcohol in her blood – more than five times the British drunk driving limit. Coroner Suzanne Greenaway gave a verdict of “death by misadventure,” saying Wednesday the singer suffered accidental alcohol poisoning when she resumed drinking after weeks of abstinence. ”The unintended consequence of such potentially fatal levels (of alcohol) was her sudden and unexpected death,” Greenaway said.”

The Evening Report for Wednesday October 19

FROM ST. LOUIS TONIGHT: Game One of the 2011 World Series. 9pm score: St. Louis Cardinals: 0; Texas Rangers: 0 in the bottom of the fourth inning. 

TOP STORY: 18 tigers, 17 lions, 6 bears and 3 cougars, 3 mountain lions, 1 wolf and 1 baboon are dead tonight in Muskingum County, Ohio after the owner of an exotic animal farm opened the cages of his collection before killing himself in an apparent suicide today. Sheriff officials in the County then moved in to find the missing animals and to shoot them. One animal, a monkey, remains missing tonight, and he is thought to be carrying the Herpes B virus. It has been a bizarre story that has developed throughout the day. 

PRESIDENT OBAMA wrapped up his 3-day bus tour through North Carolina and Virginia today, campaigning for individual sections from his jobs bill that suffered defeat in the Senate last week. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid today announced that the first piece of the jobs bill- aide to hire teachers and police officers- would be brought to the Senate Floor as a stand-alone measure and be voted on Friday of this week. The bill, which would be funded with a surtax on Millionaires, faces opposition from Republicans and moderate Democrats and is not expected to reach the 60-vote threshold it needs for consideration. The Administration is continuing to campaign aggressively for the passage of the legislation- with First Lady Michelle Obama joining the President today in Virginia; and Vice President Joe Biden encouraging its passage in a separate appearance.

SOCIAL SECURITY: After two years of a 0% cost of living increase, social security recipients will see a 3.6% increase in their cost of living allowances in 2012, the Social Security Administration announced today. The average monthly Social Security check will increase $43 to $1,229. The cost of living increase also means that an extra 10 million Americans will pay into the system, with the first $110,100 of a person’s wages taxable for Social Security, up from $106,800 this year.

WALL STREET: News that the ongoing Euro Zone negotiations have stalled ahead of a weekend deadline helped to dampen the day on Wall Street and forced the major indices lower.

DOW down 72

NASDAQ down 53

S&P 500 down 15

SUPERCOMMITTEE: The Joint Congressional Committee on Deficit Reduction- charged with finding $1.2 trillion in savings in the federal budget by the end of next month, announced today that it will hold its next public hearing next Wednesday, October 26th, over a month after its last public hearing. The group- which is made up of both Republicans and Democrats appointed by the leadership in both chambers, on both sides of the aisle, has come under public criticism for holding the majority of their meetings behind closed doors. Just yesterday, the group met with the so-called “Gang of Six” senators who were meeting throughout the winter and spring to come up with a bi-partisan deficit reduction proposal. The Gang achieved some consensus during the summer’s debt ceiling negotiations but, ultimately, were unsuccessful in pushing a “grand bargain.” They hope to use the Supercommittee to continue their work. Next week’s public hearing will give us the first sense as to what the committee members are thinking, if there is the possibility that they may come to consensus before the November 23rd deadline, and the scope and scale of the package that may be under consideration.

2012 POLLS:

NBC/MARIST SOUTH CAROLINA: Cain 31%, Romney 28%, Perry 10%, Gingrich 7%, Paul 5%, Bachmann 5%, Santorum 2%, Huntsman 1%

NBC/MARIST FLORIDA: Romney 33%, Cain 32%, Perry 9%, Gingrich 6%, Paul 6%, Bachmann 2%, Huntsman 2%, Santorum 1%

ASSOCIATED PRESS national Republican presidential nomination:

Romney 30%

Cain 26%

Perry 13%

Gingrich 7%

Paul 8%

Bachmann 4%

Huntsman 2%

Santorum 2%

From the AP write up, “Among Republicans, the desire to oust Obama is clear, according to a new AP-GfK poll. But it has not resolved divisions over the choice of a nominee. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is reasonably popular, but he has not pulled away from the field. Former pizza company executive Herman Cain runs close to Romney as the candidate Republicans would most like to see on the ballot, but many Republicans are reluctant to back a man who has never held office. Texas Gov. Rick Perry lags in the poll, which was conducted before Tuesday night’s combative debate in Las Vegas.”

And key, “There seems to be a broad gender divide in the Republican contest. Among GOP women, Romney is favored over his nearest competitor, Cain, by 17 percentage points, with the rest of the field in single digits. The picture is more muddled among Republican men: 31 percent favor Cain, 26 percent Romney, 17 percent Perry, 10 percent Paul, and the rest are each 5 percent or below. Among all adults, regardless of party identification, 21 percent say they’d like the GOP to nominate Romney. Eighteen percent name Cain, 13 percent Perry and 11 percent Paul”

FINALLY: Remember the Cantaloupe outbreak of Listeria last month? Federal official now say that unsanitary packing procedures likely led to the outbreak of the disease that has sickened 123 people in 26 states and become one of the US’ largest food disease outbreaks in history. “Growth of the pathogen was probably exacerbated by the farm’s failure to pre-cool the cantaloupes. The company acknowledged that it had skipped a key step that pulls the heat from cantaloupe before it is refrigerated, possibly contributing to condensation and moist surfaces that encouraged the Listeria to grow,” the Washington Post reports tonight. 

The Golden Report for Monday September 19

TOP STORY: “THIS ISN’T CLASS WARFARE. IT’S MATH”- President Obama speaking in the Rose Garden this morning after the Office of Management and Budget released “Living Within Our Means and Investing in the Future: The President’s Plan for Economic Growth and Deficit Reduction,” an 80-page (including charts/graphs) proposal to the Congressional supercommittee charged with finding $1.5 trillion of deficit reduction before a November 23d deadline. 

The Plan is broken down into four sections: the American Jobs Act (announced on September 8th and sent to Congress on Sept. 12th), Mandatory Savings, Health Savings and Tax Reform.

  • The big story is how the Administration has abandoned the negotiating stance it used during the summer’s debt ceiling debate, when the President and Speaker Boehner appeared close to a $4 trillion “grand bargain.” Today, the President retreated from that middle-ground position- not including any cuts to Social Security in his proposal or increases in the eligibility age for Medicare. The President drew a line in the sand, saying that any final proposal to cut Medicare that does not include tax increases on the wealthy will face a veto. The plan includes something called the “Buffett Rule” after Warren Buffett- that the tax rates for millionaires should not exceed the tax rates for middle class Americans
  • The proposal includes no new discretionary spending cuts ($1 trillion were included in the Budget Control Act signed into law in August). $257 billion in cuts to mandatory spending programs cover a wide swath of the federal government including agriculture subsidies, civil servant retirement benefits, postal service mail delivery, and increases in airline security fees.
  • Building on the CBO scored deficit reduction in the Affordable Care Act, the proposal includes an additional $248 billion in Medicare reductions and $73 billion in Medicaid cost savings
  • The final component proposes reforms to the tax code according to five key principles: 1/lowering tax rates across-the-board, 2/ ending tax loopholes and breaks 3/ reducing the deficit by $1.5 trillion, 4/increasing job creation and growth and 5/ observing the Buffett Rule (described above)
  • The total amount of deficit reduction- $3 trillion- is double the amount that the supercommittee is charged with finding. $450 billion of the additional savings are meant to offset the costs of the American Jobs Act- which were also included in this proposal. 

In laying out a clear marker- first on job creation and now on deficit reduction (building on a framework presented in an April speech at George Washington University)- the President no longer faces the criticism for not putting a plan on the table. The political reality is-however- that both of these proposals are unlikely to be incorporated into the supercommittee’s proposal and/or be adopted by Congress. In a political sense, the President can then run for re-election saying he put a plan on the table but it was rejected by ideological arguments. Or the Republican-controlled House could pick apart the President’s proposals, passing some pieces that may be incongruous- or force their hand and demand the President to uphold his veto commitments 

The next move clearly goes to the Republicans- chiefly House Speaker John Boehner. He had the first word in a Thursday speech to the Economic Club of Washington- but now needs to respond to the Administration’s more detailed series of proposals. Watch to see what the tea leaves on Capitol Hill read in the days and weeks ahead. 

THE REST OF THE WEEK: Attention turns to New York and the United Nations General Assembly Meeting

SYRIA- 5 more deaths were reported in the continuing violent crackdown there today. This as the New York Times reports the United States is, quietly, making preparations for a Syria without President Bashar al-Assad. From Helene Cooper’s News Analysis, “In coordination with Turkey, the United States has been exploring how to deal with the possibility of a civil war among Syria’s Alawite, Druse, Christian and Sunni sects, a conflict that could quickly ignite other tensions in an already volatile region. While other countries have withdrawn their ambassadors from Damascus, Obama administration officials say they are leaving in place the American ambassador, Robert S. Ford, despite the risks, so he can maintain contact with opposition leaders and the leaders of the country’s myriad sects and religious groups.” 

VIOLENT CRIME: The FBI announced today that violent crime rights in the United States dropped 6 percent from 2009 last year- the fourth consecutive year of decline. The annual Crime in the United States report found 10.3 million cimres committed in this country last year: 1.3 million violent and 9 million property. The biggest declines- robberies (down 10 percent) and motor vehicle thefts (down 7.4 percent)

WALL STREET dropped today as talks continued in Europe over the state of the Greek economy as a potential default day approaches. Talks continued Monday but no progress was reported. 

  • DOW down 108 points, over 1%, to 11,401
  • NASDAQ down 9.48
  • S&P 500 down 11.92 


BREAKING TONIGHT: Standard and Poors has downgraded ITALY to “A-A-1” and kept its outlook at “negative” Watch market reaction to this news tomorrow- and any potential effect it has on the ongoing Greek talks

NETFLIX announced early this morning that they were splitting their company’s two businesses: DVD by mail and online streaming. The popular red-envelope DVD by mail service, which is how Netflix has come to be known and was able to grow a huge customer base and market share, will be renamed “Qwikster” the company announced. “I messed up, I owe everyone an explanation,” CEO Reed Hastings said in an e-mail to subscribers. Netflix has been under fire from customers- and its stock price has dropped by over half- since they announced a complicated pricing restructuring to their services in the mid-summer. Hastings insists that he is trying to steer his company away from the mistakes of other media companies- including AOL and Borders- who were not fast or nimble enough to adapt to changing technology and customer behavior.

WATCH TOMORROW: As the Don’t Ask Don’t Tell law is officially, formally and finally repealed. The 1993 measure has barred gays and lesbians from serving openly in the military. In May 2010, the House of Representatives passed a repeal measure- the Murphy Amendment- after Defense Secretary Gates and Joint Chief of Staff Chairman Mullen came out in support of repeal earlier in the year. In December, the Senate voted 63-33 in support of the repeal and it was signed into law by President Obama on December 22nd. On July 22nd, 2011 the Defense Department certified that they were prepared to move forward with repeal. Tomorrow, the mandatory 60-day waiting period expires.

The Golden Report for Sunday September 18

HAPPENING NOW: The 63rd Primetime Emmy Awards from Hollywood, CA. “The Daily Show” with Jon Stewart just won the Emmy for Best Variety Show, for the ninth consecutive year. Earlier tonight, “The Amazing Race” won Best Reality Competition, Melissa McCarthy from “Modern Family” won Best Actress, Comedy, and “Modern Family” won Best Direction, Comedy. But of course- there are many more awards to come. 

TOP STORY TODAY AND TOMORROW: President Obama will use a 10:30am rose garden press appearance tomorrow to announce his revenue recommendations to the Congressional supercommittee. The President is expected to announce a new millionaire tax- nicknamed the “Buffett Rule” after Warren Buffett. The full proposal will be released at 9am- and include other deficit reduction measures- defense and Medicare cuts included- the will constitute the Administration’s proposal to the supercommittee. The move to specifically target millionaires is essentially dead on arrival in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives (its future among the bi-partsian group of twelve panel is less clear but thought to be nearing impossibility) but is expect to energize the President’s populist supporter base. 

ALREADY…House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan is calling the President’s proposal “Class Warfare”. 

WATCH FOR a lot of heated rhetoric, press conferences, statements..and a full-court press by a beleaguered White House tomorrow. 

MEANWHILE…the President is preparing for an important foreign policy week at the United Nations General Assembly. On Tuesday, he will host a high-level meeting on Libya, and meet with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. On Wednesday, he speaks to both the General Assembly and (across-town) to the Clinton Global Initiative, and meetings with other world leaders. Meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian Prime Minister Abbas are also possible/expected. 

VIOLENCE IN YEMEN today is being blamed for at least 24 deaths in the increasingly more hostile Arab nation. Over 200 Yemenis are also reported wounded after shots rained from rooftops and street corners. The violence comes after the United States has stepped up unmanned predator drone attacks in the country (unlike in Pakistan, where the CIA has a presidential directive for drone attacks, each drone mission over Yemen must be approved by the White House) and raises concerns about a protracted anti-government insurgency.

IN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK..annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Aside from increased security in Foggy Bottom, these meetings will be watched very closely for any indication on an international resolution to the Greek monetary crisis and the continuing threat of default. The Greek Prime Minister, however, decided to remain in his country and not make the trip to Washington this week. Wall Street will be watching these meetings, any news out of European central banks and reaction to the President’s fiscal policy plan closely this week. In early trading Monday, Asian stocks are lower.

“MORAL FAILING”- the quote heard ‘round the world today and the top talker tomorrow..from former IMF President Dominique Strauss-Kahn, in his first interview since his arrest on sexual assault charges in New York City that cost him his job. He said in the interview with French television that the encounter with a hotel maid “did not involve violence, constraint or aggression,” but was “a moral failing and I am not proud of it. I regret it infinitely. I have regretted it everyday for the past four months and I think I’m not done regretting it.”

THREE THINGS TO WATCH THIS WEEK

1/ At the United Nations General Assembly, the Palestinian Authority is expected to seek membership status- putting the international community- and the United States in particular- in an uncomfortable and difficult situation. Watch to see the diplomacy- both in front of the camera and behind the scenes- and look for process stories (such as in today’s Sunday Washington Post) about the concurrent history of the United Nations and the Israeli/Palestinian conflict

2/ The politics of the President’s revenue/deficit reduction plan..how the plays with the President’s base- and potentially quiets the story of rising dissent among Democrats with the Administration (the Administration also hopes that a busy week- in New York, then a sharp pivot back to jobs, will distract attention from these stories, including details in Ron Suskin’s new book, to be released Tuesday, that is highly critical (and apparently partially-fabricated) of the Administration’s first two and a half years. Also watch to see how Republican presidential candidates react (in unison opposition) at this week’s debate- on Thursday night from Orlando, Florida.

3/ Last week, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told NBC’s Ann Curry that two jailed American hikers would be released in a “matter of days” Over the weekend, news broke that a judge needed to carry out the release process was on vacation. As of yet, there have been no visible signs that Iran is moving to release the Americans. Watch to see if this happens this week- perhaps as Ahmadinejad prepares to address the UN in New York City and what the US reaction is if and when the hikers are freed. 

FINALLY- Tonight’s Emmy Awards are airing on the FOX television network, a unit of News Corp. According to the Washington Post, “A pre-taped comedy sketch generated controversy because Alec Baldwin’s part was cut after he included a joke about the News Corp. phone hacking scandal. Baldwin tweeted that Fox killed the joke about the hacking scandal in Britain involving the now-closed News of the World tabloid. Fox said it believed the joke was inappropriate to make light of an issue being taken very seriously by the company. Leonard Nimoy stepped in and the bit was retaped. It featured host Jane Lynch celebrating television in a musical number, singing about TV as “a vast wonderland, a kingdom of joy in a box.”