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ROMNEY WINS…Paul Second…Huntsman Third…On to South Carolina…No Candidates Dropping Out…Romney Takes Aim at Rivals, Obama in Speech…Exit Polls…What’s Next…The Evening Report for Tuesday January 10, 2012

11 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
14 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
21 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

PRIMARY EDITION

THE LATEST RESULTS:
77.7% OF THE VOTE IN

ROMNEY 38.3%
PAUL 23.2%
HUNTSMAN 16.9%
GINGRICH 9.7%
SANTORUM 9.6%

ROMNEY’S VICTORY-

The Union-Leader’s Headline: “NH Speaks: It’s Romney”
Boston Globe- “Romney a solid first, Paul second in N.H…Fmr Mass. Governor Gets Decisive GOP Win”

THE GLOBE-

“In his victory speech to the cheering crowd, Romney turned his fire mainly on Democratic President Barack Obama, saying, “This president has run out of ideas; now he’s running out of excuses.

He said Obama wants to “put free enterprise on trial. … I stand ready to lead us down a different path, where we’re lifted up by our desire to succeed, not dragged down by resentment of success.”

“He apologizes for America, and I will never apologize for the greatest nation in the history of the earth,” Romney said.

FIRST THOUGHTS ON THE ROMNEY WIN:

With some vote still left to come in, Romney is running ahead of John McCain’s winning percentage from 2008, but still below expectations in the last week that he would top 40% of the popular vote. It look as if Romney will finish at 37, 38 or 39 percent.

Ron Paul finishes with a strong second place standing. It’s difficult to see where his campaign goes next- although they will compete strongly in the caucuses through the winter and spring. Does tonight’s second-place finish by Paul make him more likely to mount a third party candidacy in November?

Jon Huntsman’s third place finish is a disappointing result for the former Utah Governor, but the candidate does say that he will be going on to South Carolina. The bigger question is how Huntsman’s campaign regroups and develops a strategy.

Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are nearly tied for fourth place, but this is not particularly surprising. Santorum did not spend a lot of money in New Hampshire over the last week and Gingrich’s standing with New Hampshire voters was well known. Both are expected to vie with Rick Perry in South Carolina on the 21st.

No candidate is expected to drop out of the race over the next week before the South Carolina debates beginning next Monday and the primary a week from Saturday.

ALL FIVE CANDIDATES DELIVERED STATEMENTS TO SUPPORTERS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT

RICK PERRY, IN SOUTH CAROLINA, RELEASED THIS STATEMENT

“Tonight’s results in New Hampshire show the race for ‘conservative alternative’ to Mitt Romney remains wide open. I skipped New Hampshire and aimed my campaign right at conservative South Carolina, where we’ve been campaigning hard and receiving an enthusiastic welcome. I believe being the only nonestablishment outsider in the race, the proven fiscal and social conservative and proven job creator will win the day in South Carolina.

South Carolina is the next stop. I have a head start here, and it’s friendly territory for a Texas governor and veteran with solid outsider credentials; the nation’s best record of job creation; and solid fiscal, social and tea party conservatism.”

ROMNEY’S VICTORY WAS DECISIVE- from POLITICO’s EMILY SCHULTHEIS- who took a look at tonight’s exit polls

“He was the first pick of a full 30 percent of voters who described themselves as “very conservative,” followed by Rick Santorum at 29 percent. He had a strong lead among those who described themselves as “somewhat conservative,” with 45 percent choosing him; he also led among self-described “moderates” and “liberals” with 35 percent.

Still, exit polls found that a full third of New Hampshire voters said they wanted another candidate in the race — only 65 percent said they were “satisfied” with the current GOP field, while 32 percent said they would like to see another candidate join the race.

Also worth noting was the high number of independents voting in tonight’s primary — a group that will be fiercely contested by both parties next fall. A full 45 percent of those coming to the polls said they were registered independents, and 47 percent of total voters tonight described themselves as independents. Both Romney and Ron Paul did well among independents — with registered independents, Romney led at 32 percent, followed by Paul at 30 percent and Jon Huntsman at 23 percent.

The former Massachusetts governor even led among New Hampshire evangelical voters, with 27 percent of that group picking Romney. Santorum took second place with the evangelical vote at 26 percent, followed by Paul at 10 percent.

One group Romney did not win, however, is the youth vote — a group that went strongly for Paul, as it did in Iowa. Paul got the support of 46 percent of voters aged 18 to 29, with Romney coming in a distant second at 21 percent. Romney, however, had a strong advantage with older voters: He won 45- to 64-year-olds with 39 percent and the 65 and older vote with 39 percent.

THE DEMOCRATS:

Vice President Joe Biden spoke via video-conference to about 2,000 Democratic supporters in New Hampshire tonight.

President Obama is traveling to Chicago tomorrow, to attend a re-election fundraiser and, likely, stop by his re-election headquarters

THE HEADLINES TONIGHT

Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire. Officially, he is now 2 for 2 in the contests so far this primary season.

No candidates are dropping out after tonight’s results.

It’s on to South Carolina, where Gingrich, Santorum and Perry are going to attack Romney over Bain Capital. 

Tomorrow’s Jobs Number Forecast at 150,000…5 Days To Go Before NH….Globe Endorses Huntsman…Romney Leads in NH, Nationally…Santorum Compares Homosexuality to Polygamy …Kanye Tweets..The Evening Report for Thursday January 05, 2012

5 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
16 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
19 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
26 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

TOP STORY: President Obama today become the first Commander-in-Chief to hold a press conference in the Pentagon Press Briefing Room, with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Martin Dempsey, to announce a new proposal for the Defense Department budget- historic austerity measures to result in a smaller, leaner military to respond to changing threats and budgetary pressures.

FROM THE LEAD OF TOMORROW’S WASHINGTON POST-

“The U.S. military will steadily shrink the Army and Marine Corps, reduce forces in Europe and probably make further cuts to the nation’s nuclear arsenal…

The downsizing of the Pentagon, prompted by the country’s dire fiscal problems, means that the military will depend more on coalitions with allies and avoid the large-scale counterinsurgency and nation-building operations that have marked the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Instead, the Pentagon will invest more heavily in Special Operations Forces, which have a smaller footprint and require less money than conventional units, as well as drone aircraft and cybersecurity, defense officials said. The military will also shift its focus to Asia to counter China’s rising influence and North Korea’s unpredictability. Despite the end of the Iraq war, administration officials said they would keep a large presence in the Middle East, where tensions with Iran are worsening.”

TOP STORY IN THE ARMY TIMES- “Coming DoD cuts will hit some services harder“ 

THE MARINE CORPS TIMES- ”Long-war abilities cut; focus now on Pacific“ 

BREAKING TONIGHT IN DC POLITICS- City Councilmember Harry Thomas, Jr. has announced he will resign and turn himself in to authorities tomorrow morning on embezzlement charges.

THOMAS’ STATEMENT, IN PART: “Tomorrow morning I will plead guilty to committing two federal crimes. I am resigning my position as a member of the Council effective immediately. I made some very serious mistakes and exhibited inadequate and flawed judgment. I take full responsibility for my actions. I am truly sorry. As a Councilmember and throughout my life, I have dedicated myself to serving the residents and the youth of Washington, D.C. In the pursuit of this work, I made some poor decisions and acted in ways I simply should not have. I was wrong. I want to apologize to those I have let down, including my constituents, neighbors and friends in Ward 5, the residents of this great city, the mayor, my fellow councilmembers and the government officials that serve our city tirelessly.”

COMING ATTRACTION: Tomorrow morning at 8:30am, the Labor Department will release an employment report for the month of December. As it is each month, this report provides a snapshot of the economy and the employment picture. Economists are generally bullish on tomorrow’s report, predicting 150,000 jobs will be reported as added last month.

TODAY ON WALL STREET: Essentially unchanged on the day.

  • DOW down 3
  • NASDAQ up 21.5
  • S&P 500 up 4

CAMPAIGN 2012

BREAKING TONIGHT: The Boston Globe has endorsed Jon Huntsman, bypassing its native son, and former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney, who is widely expected to win Tuesday’s primary. Four years ago, the Globe endorsed John McCain over Romney. McCain went on to win New Hampshire, and the Republican nomination.

FROM THE ENDORSEMENT, IN PART:

“Just three years removed from a Republican administration that was roundly judged a failure, the party has a chance to renew itself - to blaze a path to bipartisan action on the budget, to introduce market-based solutions to health costs, and to construct a post-Iraq War network of alliances to promote global economic strength, knowing that true security comes from both peace and prosperity.

So far, Republican presidential contenders have shown little awareness of this opportunity

And yet the chance for renewal remains. Sour economic data and dysfunction in Washington present major obstacles to Obama’s reelection. Whoever gets the Republican nomination could easily become president. Among the candidates, only two stand out as truly presidential, Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman.

But while Romney proceeds cautiously, strategically, trying to appease enough constituencies to get himself the nomination, Huntsman has been bold. Rather than merely sketch out policies, he articulates goals and ideals. The priorities he would set for the country, from leading the world in renewable energy to retooling education and immigration policies to help American high-tech industries, are far-sighted. He has stood up far more forcefully than Romney against those in his party who reject evolution and the science behind global warming.

With a strong record as governor of Utah and US ambassador to China, arguably the most important overseas diplomatic post, Huntsman’s credentials match those of anyone in the field. He would be the best candidate to seize this moment in GOP history, and the best-prepared to be president.”

HUNTSMAN IS POLLING AT SEVEN PERCENT in a Suffolk University Poll out today, conducted since the results of Tuesday’s Iowa Caucus. Mitt Romney holds a 23 point lead.

  • Romney 41%
  • Paul 18%
  • Santorum 8%
  • Gingrich 7%
  • Huntsman 7%

THE WASHINGTON TIMES HAS MITT UP BY 14 in New Hampshire

  • Romney 38%
  • Paul 24%
  • Santorum 11%
  • Gingrich 9%
  • Huntsman 8%
  • Perry 1%

NATIONALLY, ROMNEY HOLDS A 8-POINT LEAD over Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich, now his chief rivals (by the polls) for the Republican Nomination

RASMUSSEN: Romney 29%, Santorum 21%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 12%, Perry 4, Huntsman 4%

GALLUP: Romney 27%, Gingrich 19%, Paul 13%, Santorum 11%, Perry 6%, Huntsman 2%

THE NEW HAMPSHIRE DEBATES:

Saturday, 9pm ET, Saint Anselm College, Manchester, NH, ABC News/WMUR-TV

Sunday, 9am ET, Chubb Theatre at the Capitol Center for the Arts, Concord, NH, NBC News/Facebook/NH Union-Leader

They will be the 14th & 15th debates of the 2011/12 primary season.

WHO WON THE DAY? Newt Gingrich, says POLITICO’S Alex Burns.

“It may all be too little, too late for Newton Leroy Gingrich, but for the first time in a long time, the former House speaker looked like a candidate with some fight in him.

His campaign put out an ad contrasting his leadership with the “timid” Mitt Romney. Gingrich ridiculed Romney on the trail as a tax-raising “moderate.” And the Union Leader, which endorsed him for president back when times were good, printed a front-page editorial calling for voters to learn the lesson of Iowa and reject the “squishy-moderate” Romney.

It remains to be seen if Gingrich’s campaign is still salvageable, and a Suffolk University tracking poll found that he had fallen into a tie for fourth place in New Hampshire with Jon Huntsman. Still, both Gingrich’s supporters and his opponents see the possibility of another political resurrection in South Carolina.”

FIGHTING WORDS FROM GINGRICH ON THE TRAIL TONIGHT:

“Gov. Romney ran for governor, called himself — I’m not making these words up — called himself a moderate,” Gingrich said. “As governor, he appointed liberal judges to appease the Democrats. As governor, he raised taxes.”

TOP TALKER- “Santorum Raises Polygamy in Defending Stand Against Gay Marriage”- National Journal- Naureen Khan and Ron Fournier in Concord

“In a spirited debate with gay-rights supporters, GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum on Thursday defended his opposition to liberalizing marriage laws by raising the specter of polygamy.“What about three men?” he asked.
The comment evoked memories of the ex-Pennsylvania senator’s controversial statement to the Associated Press in 2003 in which he associated gay sex with incest and bestiality.

Santorum encouraged the debate with several audience members who attended his address at a college convention sponsored by New England College. The audience of about 200 people included several supporters of Santorum’s rival, libertarian Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. Some booed Santorum when he left the stage.

One audience member, a college-aged man, asked Santorum how gay marriage affected him personally. A young woman asked him to justify his embrace of constitutional freedoms such as life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness while at the same time denying the right for gay couples to marry.

FROM SANTORUM’S STATEMENT IN 2003 TO USA TODAY 

“We have laws in states, like the one at the Supreme Court right now, that has sodomy laws and they were there for a purpose. Because, again, I would argue, they undermine the basic tenets of our society and the family. And if the Supreme Court says that you have the right to consensual sex within your home, then you have the right to bigamy, you have the right to polygamy, you have the right to incest, you have the right to adultery. You have the right to anything. Does that undermine the fabric of our society? I would argue yes, it does. It all comes from, I would argue, this right to privacy that doesn’t exist in my opinion in the United States Constitution, this right that was created.”

TONIGHT’S HUFFINGTON POST BANNER

“STAY CLASSY, RICK
Santorum Compares Gay Marriage To Polygamy”

THE WAY WE SEE IT: Watch for this story to blow up tomorrow, and doom Santorum’s chances of continuing his Iowa momentum any further.

FINALLY…If you were scrolling through your Twitter feed late last night, you might have seen KANYE WEST go on a rant. More than 80 of them. Over 3 hours. In a rambling train of thoughts. Reuters makes some sense of it-

“We need to take what Michael Jackson felt and Mcqueen and Steve Jobs and we need make things better,” West said on Twitter during the early hours of Thursday morning from London, referring to the late singing legend, fashion designer Alexander McQueen and Apple’s founding visionary.

Media outlets tried to interpret West’s posts in various ways, with publications such as Slate focusing on West’s announcement of design company DONDA, while others like MTV opted to highlight tweets telling readers what was on the rapper’s mind.

“He’s a mad genius,” said Ian Drew, music editor of Us Weekly. “His ideas are grandiose, but if you look at the history of Kanye, he would tweet an idea and it would happen. He’s trying to be understood and heard.”

“In general, Kanye is someone who thinks he is incredibly important,” said Cooper Lawrence, author of “The Cult of Celebrity.”

She said the Twitter posts “showed insight into who he really is,” and speculated on the rapper’s mental condition, saying she “wouldn’t be surprised if Kanye was suffering from depression.”

AGAIN TONIGHT WE WELCOME our new subscribers who came via a link in this morning’sCOLLEGE DAYBREAK. Welcome to the Evening Report, we’re glad to have you! 

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6 Days To Go Before New Hampshire…Romney Won Iowa by 8 Votes…Bachmann’s Out…Perry’s Still In…Santorum’s Raised $1 Million in 24 Hours…Obama Bypasses Congress…The Best of CNN Last Night…The Evening Report for Wednesday January 04, 2012

6 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
17 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
20 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
27 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

It was a busy news day. Here’s a look at what’s happened today:

  • Mitt Romney officially won the Iowa Caucus by eight votes over Rick Santorum.
  • Michele Bachmann said she was suspending her presidential campaign.
  • Rick Perry returned to Texas, and then announced that he would be staying in the race, participating in this weekend’s debates and competing in the South Carolina Primary later this month.
  • 2008 Republican Nominee John McCain endorsed Mitt Romney in New Hampshire.
  • President Obama appointed Richard Cordray to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, using a controversial recess appointment. He used the same authority to nominate three members of the National Labor Relations Board.

THE MAN OF THE DAY: RICK SANTORUM, who sent a shock wave through the Republican Party by earning 25% of last night’s Iowa Caucus vote. Today, Santorum moved on to New Hampshire as he faces the seemingly daunting task of building a campaign organization that is able to go toe-to-toe with Mitt Romney.

HE’S RAISED A MILLION DOLLARS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS: reports Jonathan Martin “their server briefly went down under the crush last night, said almost all of the cash came online.”

AND/BUT MITT ROMNEY WON THE DAY, says Maggie Habberman, “To be sure, Rick Santorum has had a good day - he’s still being treated as the clearest anti-Romney candidate, and he got helpful ink from the Wall Street Journal editorial page and columnist George Will. But Romney’s day was better.”

AND JMART SAYS ITS GOING TO BE HARD TO STOP ROMNEY NOW:

“Conservatives got a stark reminder Wednesday about just how difficult it will be to block his path to the nomination. Romney’s conservative opposition remains split and unable to unify behind a single alternative — all the more so with Rick Perry deciding to stay in the race Wednesday after hinting he might step aside. A high-profile Christian conservative, Gary Bauer, said he had no intention of joining a campaign to take down Romney.

And even second-place Iowa finisher Rick Santorum’s momentum hardly seemed enough to slow Romney in New Hampshire, where the former Massachusetts governor is sitting on a double-digit lead with five days until the primary.
Because of the divided nature of the opposition and Romney’s organizational and financial advantages, GOP elites made the case Wednesday that there was no clear way he could be stopped.”

A ‘VICTORY LAP’ IS EXACTLY HOW THE NEW YORK TIMES DESCRIBES ROMNEY’S DAY:

“After a round of morning television show appearances and a ride in a Boeing 737 packed with reporters, Mr. Romney headed for a high school gymnasium where he accepted the endorsement of a onetime bitter rival, Senator John McCain. He also showed off his network of support in the state, where the nation’s first primary takes place Tuesday, appearing with former Gov. John H. Sununu and Senator Kelly Ayotte, an indication of how the Republican establishment was rallying to his side.

“Do we think we can get more than an eight-vote margin here in New Hampshire?” he asked the crowd, a joking reference to his remarkably slim margin of victory in Iowa.

While Mr. Romney dominated the day-after-Iowa news coverage with his victory lap here, Mr. Santorum and his staff were slowly making the 1,400-mile journey from Des Moines in a King Air propeller plane that did not deliver them here until suppertime, too late to make a star turn on the evening news. He made a nighttime turn on Fox News and CNN and landed in time for a rally that drew hundreds.”

BUT, ABOUT THAT MCCAIN ENDORSEMENT- the Huffington Post’s Jon Ward thought the event was lackluster, much like Romney’s speech early this morning in Iowa:

“Mitt Romney’s first event here in the state where he enjoys a huge home-field advantage offered a rude awakening.

Three of the first four questioners were openly hostile to Romney, although one of them was an Occupy Manchester activist. And even the endorsement and appearance of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) failed to arouse much of a reaction from the Granite Staters in attendance.”

WHY POLITICAL ADVANCE IS SO IMPORTANT: ”And much of the blame probably lay with campaign planners, who scheduled Romney for an event at a time when most politically active people are working and put him in front of an audience made up in part of apathetic high school students. They also rushed McCain out onto the big stage so he could dominate the cable news during the afternoon, rather than waiting for an early-evening town hall in Peterborough, one of McCain’s favorite settings in the state.”

TONIGHT McCain and Romney made a joint appearance on Hannity.

SO WHAT’S NEXT?

Saturday- 14th Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, St. Anslem College, 9pm/ABC News
Sunday- Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, Mancheser, NH 9am/NBC News
Tuesday- New Hampshire Primary
Monday January 16th- Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, Myrtle Beach, SC
Thursday January 19th- 17th Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, Charleston, SC
Saturday January 21st- South Carolina Primary

SANTORUM MISSES DEADLINE FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA APRIL 3RD PRIMARY- “Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry and Mitt Romney all filed the required information by today’s 5 p.m. deadline and will appear on the ballot for DC’s April 3 primary. Michele Bachmann, who dropped her presidential bid earlier today, also did not file”

JON HUNTSMAN ON AIR IN NEW HAMPSHIRE: ”We’re getting screwed as Americans” his new ad - also his first- says.

PRESIDENT OBAMA went to Ohio today, his first public appearance of 2012 in a key battleground state. And the White House began the year fighting, choosing to usurp Senatorial custom and interpret the President’s constitutional authority to issue recess appointments broadly, nominating Richard Cordray as the first director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

IN THIS MOVE, National Journal’s Stacy Kaper and Dan Friedman find clues to the President’s re-election strategy

“In one bold stroke, Obama broke what Democrats called an unprecedented GOP attempt to hold up installation of any CFPB chief unless Democrats agreed to change the agency’s structure. Republicans filibustered Cordray’s nomination last month. 

Obama’s move marks a new step in a procedural arms race in which both parties, while professing outrage, counter each other’s obstruction with new procedural tactics. Legally, Cordray has no better claim to a recess appointment than any other pending nominee. But because Republicans blocked Cordray on the grounds that they oppose the bureau rather than think him unqualified, Democrats feel they have a stronger political case for installing him.

Lawyers of all stripes agree that legal challenges are inevitable, and that, like the health care law, they could ultimately wind up before the Supreme Court.”

LOOK FOR AN INCREASINGLY COMBATIVE WHITE HOUSE to continue its “We Can’t Wait” strategy in the weeks ahead, portraying President Obama as a “warrior for the Middle Class”- a likely theme for this year’s State of the Union Address

WALL STREET- from CNBC- “The Dow and S&P clawed back into positive territory at the close Wednesday, adding to the sharp rally from the previous session, but gains were limited over renewed fears over the euro zone debt crisis.”

  • DOW up 21
  • NASDAQ down 0.36
  • S&P 500 up 0.24

FINALLY… The Iowa Caucus results didn’t come in until very early this morning and cable news anchors stayed on the air  through it all. CNN’s coverage after 1am provided a lot of great bloopers

Here’s Erin Burnett flicking a magic wall, Anderson Cooper saying “have we all just given up here?” and “I don’t know what the hell a social media screen is” and Wolf Blitzer looking anxious in “Late Night Takes over CNN Anchors“ 

Here’s Piers Morgan clearly interrupting Anderson Cooper when he was about to follow-up with a question 

AND THE BEST VIDEO OF THE NIGHT Here’s Wolf Blitzer and John King ON THE PHONE with Clinton County Election Officials Edith & Carolyn, including “what do you mean the numbers don’t match?” 

WELCOME to our new subscribers who came via a link in this morning’s COLLEGE DAYBREAK. Welcome to the Evening Report, we’re glad to have you! 

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Inside the White House’s Payroll Tax Strategy

Via Mike Allen’s Friday Playbok

PFEIFFER’S WORKSHOP - HOW THE WHITE HOUSE POUNDED ITS MESSAGE:

“—Monday: WH Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer did an hour of satellite TV time into the following markets: Palm Beach, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Portland and Seattle. … The regional communications team did a press call with their top regional reporters with Josh Earnest and Brian Deese … Administration Officials were on national and regional TV and radio throughout the day … Administration Officials held a call with Hispanic media … Administration Officials were on African American and Hispanic radio and TV …

“—Tuesday: Office of Digital Strategy launched What 40 Dollars Means to You, an online effort to get the American people to lend their voice to this debate. We launched #40dollars on twitter, the webpage www.whitehouse.gov/40dollars and sent an email from David Plouffe to the White House list … Deese and Earnest convened a conference call with regional political reporters. … Administration Officials were on national and regional TV and radio [and] African American and Hispanic radio and TV …

“—Wednesday: The White House featured responses that we received from Americans who’ve written to the White House to say what $40 means for them. These responses will be featured on whitehouse.gov , White House Twitter and Facebook accounts … [Council of Economic Advisers] Chair Alan Krueger delivered a speech on the economy and economic certainty in Charlotte, NC, in which he made … economic case for the payroll tax cut. … Senior Advisor Valerie Jarrett, [Labor] Secretary [Hilda] Solis and [Domestic Policy Council] Director Melody Barnes participated in interviews on African American radio to amplify our payroll tax cut message. Senior Admin officials also did Hispanic media outlets including radio … Barnes hosted a roundtable with African American reporters. … Gene Sperling and Secretary Solis hosted a conference call on the importance of extending UI benefits for regional and specialty outlets … The President tweeted on [@WhiteHouse] Twitter feed … Deese convened a conference call with Americans who Tweeted on #40dollars … Administration Officials were on national and regional TV and radio [and] African American and Hispanic radio and TV …

“Thursday: The President delivered a statement payroll tax cut … joined on-stage and in the audience by people who [would] be impacted by the tax increase … The White House released a map on WhiteHouse.gov … with over 10,000 points throughout the U.S. of citizens responding to the question: ‘What does $40 dollars mean to you?’ … Administration Officials were on national and regional TV and radio [and ]African American and Hispanic radio and TV.”

The Evening Report for Thursday December 22 2011

12 DAYS UNTIL IOWA
19 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE

BREAKING: A magnitude 5.9 earthquake has struck near Christchurch, New Zealand, the US Geological Survey reports

TOP STORY: A deal.

Late this afternoon, Speaker of the House John Boehner, looking weary and defeated after a week of intense negotiations, came to the microphones to announce that he had reached a deal with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to have the House pass the Senate bill extending the payroll tax cut for two months, adding a provision that seeks to accommodate the burden that some businesses may face from having to adjust their payroll filings as a result of the legislation.

He expected that the House and Senate would both act before Christmas- meaning tomorrow- to pass the bill by unanimous consent. That is, unless one member objects which, while entirely possible, is considered unlikely.

THE LATEST- from The Hill- “House Republican Leaders Cave- Agree To Pass Two-Month Bill”

“Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) announced the agreement with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) Thursday evening after briefing rank-and-file House Republicans on a conference call. The House has agreed to pass a version of the Senate’s two-month payroll tax cut legislation, with a fix demanded by Republicans to make implementation easier.

According to a lawmaker who participated in the House GOP conference call, Boehner told the rank-and-file members that a deal was struck and the deed had been done. Unlike an extended phone call on Saturday, where members voiced extreme opposition to a Senate compromise, the Thursday conference call was one-way, and members were only allowed to listen in.

The agreement capped a disastrous week for Boehner, who was first forced into a fight with Senate Republicans by his own angry members and then was abandoned by senior Republicans, including Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the 2008 presidential nominee, and Karl Rove, the chief strategist for the last Republican president.

“I don’t think this is any time for celebration,” Boehner said as he announced the agreement in the basement of a nearly empty Capitol.

Asked if he caved on the issue, the Speaker replied: “You know, sometimes it’s hard to do the right thing, and sometimes it’s politically difficult to do the right thing.”

STATEMENT FROM SPEAKER BOEHNER announcing the deal:

“Senator Reid and I have reached an agreement that will ensure taxes do not increase for working families on January 1 while ensuring that a complex new reporting burden is not unintentionally imposed on small business job creators.  Under the terms of our agreement, a new bill will be approved by the House that reflects the bipartisan agreement in the Senate along with new language that allows job creators to process and withhold payroll taxation under the same accounting structure that is currently in place.  The Senate will join the House in immediately appointing conferees, with instructions to reach agreement in the weeks ahead on a full-year payroll tax extension.  We will ask the House and Senate to approve this agreement by unanimous consent before Christmas.  I thank our Members – particularly those who have remained here in the Capitol with the holidays approaching – for their efforts to enact a full-year extension of the payroll tax cut for working families.”

STATEMENT FROM MAJORITY LEADER REID affirming the deal-

“I am grateful that the voices of reason have prevailed and Speaker Boehner has agreed to pass the Senate’s bipartisan compromise. Year-long extensions of the payroll tax cut, unemployment insurance and Medicare payments for physicians has always been our goal, and Democrats will not rest until we have passed them. But there remain important differences between the parties on how to implement these policies, and it is critical that we protect middle-class families from a tax increase while we work them out.

“I look forward to appointing members of my caucus to continue negotiations towards a year-long agreement. Two months is not a long time, and I expect the negotiators to work expeditiously to forge year-long extensions of these critical policies.”

STATEMENT FROM PRESIDENT OBAMA trumpeting what has been a very good week for his presidency-

“For the past several weeks, I’ve stated consistently that it was critical that Congress not go home without preventing a tax increase on 160 million working Americans. Today, I congratulate members of Congress for ending the partisan stalemate by reaching an agreement that meets that test.

Because of this agreement, every working American will keep his or her tax cut – about $1,000 for the average family. That’s about $40 in every paycheck. Vital unemployment insurance will continue for millions of Americans who are looking for work.  And when Congress returns, I urge them to keep working to reach an agreement that will extend this tax cut and unemployment insurance for all of 2012 without drama or delay.

This is good news, just in time for the holidays. This is the right thing to do to strengthen our families, grow our economy, and create new jobs.  This is real money that will make a real difference in people’s lives. And I want to thank every American who raised your voice to remind folks in this town what this debate was all about. It was about you. And today, your voices made all the difference.”

TONIGHT, THE PRESIDENT TWEETED FROM @WHITEHOUSE:

Thanks to all who shared #40dollars stories. Today’s victory is yours. Keep making your voices heard – it makes all the difference. –bo

PAYROLL TAKEAWAYS:

1/ This debate was a big deal. The question is how big a deal it remains weeks and months from now. Will it be seen as a defining moment in the relationship between President Obama and Congress, between Democrats and Republicans, between Republicans and the Tea Party- or will this debate, similar to the others we have seen this year over federal funding and the debt ceiling, be eclipsed by the next big battle?

2/ The White House found its voice. After a year of trying, and often coming up short, in its negotiations with Congress and after continued difficulty messaging and communicating with the public, the White House’s operation has seemingly come together over the last week. The #40Dollars campaign was really the first time the formal White House has successfully leveraged the social media tools they mastered in the 2008 election to help them win both a policy and a political debate, in a way that related to the average American.

3/ The Speaker is severely weakened. What we don’t know is if he is damaged beyond repair or, quite possibly and alternatively, if the Tea Party Republicans who forced a change in control in the House in 2010 have finally been shunned by enough of the traditional Republican establishment. Many believe that this group of freshman representatives revolted in the summer and prevented Speaker Boehner from agreeing to a grand bargain with President Obama. This time, the Speaker was at first ready to give in to their demands but then essentially said “not this time.”

WALL STREET- from CNBC-

“Stocks pushed into the close to finish around their highest levels for the second day in a row, as banks surged and Wall Street shrugged off fears of a global economic slowdown.

Financials, energy and technology — the market’s principal weak spot recently — led gainers, while commodities, particularly mining-related stocks, showed weakness. Consumer staples was the worst of the 10 Standard & Poor’s 500 sectors during a day in which the market traded in a tight range throughout the session.”

  • DOW up 62
  • NASDAQ up 21
  • S&P 500 up 10

CAMPAIGN 2012:

Former President George H. W. Bush endorsed Gov. Mitt Romney today.

(Earlier this year, Romney was the only one of the current presidential candidates to attend a tribute event for Pres. Bush at the Kennedy Center in Washington organized by the Points of Light Institute. THE EVENING REPORT was there that night and met President Bush and Governor Romney)

RON PAUL is surging in Iowa, although his campaign is coming under new questions about documents that have surfaced (similar- maybe even identical- to ones that surfaced with allegations of racism in 2008). Yesterday, Paul even walked out of an interview with CNN’s Glorida Borger.

And as NBC’s Domenico Montanaro reports, there may be more skeletons in the closet set to come out in these final days before the Caucus:

  • No federal regulations for car safety, medicines, even air traffic control
  • Don’t regulate raw milk:
  • Heroin, marijuana, cocaine, prostitution OK if states allow them
  • - No air conditioning for troops (as a way to bring them home)
  • Against the Americans with Disabilities Act
  • No FEMA
  • Believes Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are unconstitutional

The question is how many of these past statements and positions, many which are quintessentially Ron Paul, will have staying power.

GINGRICH HAS A NEW NICKNAME FOR ROMNEY- via National Journal-

“When a Massachusetts moderate says I’m not conservative, it makes me want to laugh when he goes down that road,” Gingrich told radio host Tony Powers, responding to the former Bay State governor’s frequent charge. “When a Massachusetts moderate says Newt Gingrich is not conservative enough, other than break up laughing I don’t know what the correct response would be.”

Gingrich also criticized another rival, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, who also has run ads critical of the former House speaker. “Paul’s case is different because he believes in legalizing drugs … thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a nuclear weapon and believes Americans are responsible for 9/11, which makes no sense.”

GALLUP TRACKING POLL: Gingrich 27, Romney 21, Paul 12, Perry 7, Bachmann 6, Santorum 4, Huntsman 1, Cain

GINGRICH averages a 3.8% lead in an average of national polls for the Republican nomination

RON PAUL leads an average of recent polls in IOWA, topping Romney by 3.5%

In NEW HAMPSHIREMITT ROMNEY has a 13 point average lead over Newt Gingrich

The near-reverse is the case in SOUTH CAROLINA, where GINGRICH has a 16 point lead over Romney

And in FLORIDA, the last of the early primary states (at the end of January), GINGRICH retains a 18 point lead over Mitt Romney.

FINALLY…Matt Damon still has some beef with President Obama. Actually, a lot of beef. And he told Elle Magazine that the President should think about leaving after one term. From the Huffington Post-

“I’ve talked to a lot of people who worked for Obama at the grassroots level. One of them said to me, ‘Never again. I will never be fooled again by a politician,’” Damon tells the magazine. “You know, a one-term president with some balls who actually got stuff done would have been, in the long run of the country, much better.”

Referring to the Occupy Wall Street movement, Damon continued: “If the Democrats think that they didn’t have a mandate — people are literally without any focus or leadership, just wandering out into the streets to yell right now because they are so pissed off … Imagine if they had a leader.”

The slam follows in the same vein as a number of other criticisms Damon has made of the President and the Democrats, including in March, when he criticized Obama’s education policy.

“I really think he misinterpreted his mandate. A friend of mine said to me the other day, I thought it was a great line, ‘I no longer hope for audacity,’” Damon told CNN host Piers Morgan. “He’s doubled down on a lot of things, going back to education… the idea that we’re testing kids and we’re tying teachers salaries to how kids are performing on tests, that kind of mechanized thinking has nothing to do with higher order. We’re training them, not teaching them.”

HAPPY HANUKKAH!

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Statement from the Press Secretary on Report of the Death of Kim Jong Il

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

December 18, 2011

 

Statement by the Press Secretary on reports of the death of Kim Jong Il

We are closely monitoring reports that Kim Jong Il is dead. The President has been notified, and we are in close touch with our allies in South Korea and Japan. We remain committed to stability on the Korean peninsula, and to the freedom and security of our allies.

The Evening Report for Wednesday December 14 

20 DAYS UNTIL IOWA

50 HOURS UNTIL A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

TOP STORY: Brinkmanship by both parties on Capitol Hill has set the federal government up for a potential shutdown effective Saturday morning after the Senate today rejected a House passed payroll tax bill, which also includes a provision speeding implementation of the controversial Keystone XL Pipeline.

This evening, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid went to the White House to meet with President Obama and then return to the Capitol to sit down with Republican leaders John Boehner and Mitch McConnell. This is at least the third time this year that the government has come within two days of a potential shutdown and, both times, a shutdown was avoided.

Conventional wisdom on the Hill remains that Congress will pass some sort of a continuing resolution before midnight on Friday, however, with only 50 hours remaining, nothing is certain.

TONIGHT’S DEVELOPMENT: Numerous reports say that Democrats are prepared to drop their proposal for a millionaire surtax to pay for extension of the payroll tax, a sign that with the impending holiday recess, the parties may be moving closer to a deal.

The Washington Post reports tonight:

“Taken together, the developments signaled the end game for a year of divided government — with a tea party-flavored majority in the House and Obama’s allies in the Senate — that has veered from near-catastrophe to last-minute compromise repeatedly since last January.

The rhetoric was biting at times.

“We have fiddled all year long, all year,” McConnell complained in a less-than-harmonious exchange on the Senate floor with Reid. He accused Democrats of “routinely setting up votes designed to divide us … to give the president a talking point out on the campaign trail.”

Reid shot back that McConnell had long ago declared Obama’s defeat to be his top priority. And he warned that unless Republicans show a willingness to bend, the country faces a government shutdown “that will be just as unpopular” as the two that occurred when Newt Gingrich was House speaker more than a decade ago.

It was a reminder — as if McConnell and current Speaker John Boehner of Ohio needed one — of the political debacle that ensued for Republicans when Gingrich was outmaneuvered in a showdown with former President Bill Clinton.”

GOVERNMENT PREPARES FOR POTENTIAL SHUTDOWN- The Washington Post’s Ed O’Keefe-

“Cabinet secretaries and agency heads planned to send an e-mail message to workers by close of business Wednesday informing them that a shutdown could occur, according to multiple administration officials familiar with the plans.

A shutdown would not apply to a wide swath of agencies and departments that already have full-year funding in place thanks to a partial spending bill that passed in November, including the departments of Agriculture, Commerce, House and Urban Development, Justice, State, and Transportation, NASA, and other smaller agencies covered by separate appropriations measures.

In a statement, Office of Management and Budget spokesman Kenneth Baer said Wednesday that “There is no reason for the government to shut down.”Congress could act quickly to pass a short- or long-term spending measure, Baer said, as they have seven times already this year.”

PRESIDENT OBAMA made his first trip as President to FORT BRAGG NORTH CAROLINA today, speaking to soldiers who have deployed to Iraq

WALL STREET TODAY- from CNBC- “Worries over European debt again plagued Wall Street, sending stocks down at the close for a third straight day in a selloff that also hit commodities and energy stocks hard.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 and Dow industrials lost about 1 percent each, with energy down nearly 3 percent. All 10 S&P 500 sectors were negative with materials and industrials also getting hammered. Financials and health care were closest to positive territory.”

  • DOW down 131
  • NASDAQ down 40
  • S&P 500 down 14

CAMPAIGN 2012:

QUOTE OF THE DAY- Romney interview with the New York Times-

    “Zany is not what we need in a president.”

    “Zany is great in a campaign. It’s great on talk radio. It’s great in print, it makes for fun reading. But in terms of a president, we need a leader, and a leader needs to be someone who can bring Americans together.

In IOWA tonight, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee did not give any clues as to which candidate he might be leaning towards endorsing, or even if he will endorse before the Caucus on January 3rd. Huckabee hosted the screening of a conservative film- “The Gift of Life”- in Des Moines attended by four presidential candidates- Santorum, Perry, Bachmann & Gingrich- tonight.

ROMNEY ATTACKS GINGRICH- in interview with CBS News-

    “[I was] frankly, very surprised that he would attack conservatism, he would attack free enterprise, he would attack capitalism. This is a party that believes in free enterprise.”

    Q: Is he in the wrong party?

    “Well, it depends on the day. I just think hes been unreliable in his support of conservative principles.”

ALSO

“Newt Gingrich has wealth from having worked in government. He’s a wealthy man, a very wealthy man. If you have a half a million dollar purchase from Tiffany’s, you’re not a middle-class American.”

TOMORROW NIGHT is the 13th Republican Presidential Candidates Debate of the 2012 primary- sponsored by FOX News and the Republican Party of Iowa- in Sioux City, Iowa.

THE EVENING REPORT will publish a special POST-DEBATE edition tomorrow night.

LEADING POLITICO TONIGHT- “Is Newt taking Iowa seriously enough?”- by Jonathan Martin-

“Gingrich’s return from the political grave has been premised on disregarding the practice of politics as usual, and he now seems to be betting that he can bypass the traditional, retail-focused path to victory in Iowa and still win. Asked if he was endangering his Iowa prospects, Gingrich acknowledged he was taking intense fire but said he’d ramp up his effort before January 3rd.

“I think Iowa’s going to be a challenge because you have everybody firing away simultaneously in a relatively small market,” the former speaker told reporters following his lecture here at the University of Iowa. “And so I think it’s going to require two weeks of my going around, telling the truth, letting people look at the negative ad, look at the truth and decide if they really want to give their vote to somebody who’s not telling the truth.”

Gingrich promised to do more retail events – he teased a post-Christmas bus tour – and said he’d do more ads.

But he also offered a mix of nonchalance and high-road confidence in explaining that he didn’t have enough money to match his rivals’ ad campaign and, in any event, wasn’t inclined to engage in traditional back-and-forth on the airwaves.”

REUTERS/IPSOS POLL HAS GINGRICH UP BY 10

  • GINGRICH 28
  • ROMNEY 18
  • PAUL 12
  • PERRY 12
  • BACHMANN 10
  • HUNTSMAN 5
  • SANTORUM 4

GALLUP TRACKING HAS GINGRICH UP BY 8

  • GINGRICH 31
  • ROMNEY 23
  • PAUL 9
  • BACHMANN 6
  • SANTORUM 4
  • HUNTSMAN 2

GENERAL ELECTION MASHUPS

OBAMA V. ROMNEY (USA TODAY) OBAMA: 47%, ROMNEY 46%
OBAMA V. GINGRICH (USA TODAY): OBAMA: 50% ROMNEY 44%

OBAMA V. ROMNEY (NBC/WSJ): OBAMA 47% ROMNEY 45%
OBAMA V GINGRICH (NBC/WSJ): OBAMA 51% GINGRICH 40%

OBAMA V ROMNEY (REUTERS) OBAMA 48% ROMNEY 40%
OBAMA V GINGRICH (REUTERS) OBAMA 51% GINGRICH 38%

FINALLY...

BRIAN WILLIAMS INTERVIEWS MARCEL THE SHELL. If you haven’t yet seen the video from Monday Night’s ROCK CENTER, America #1 evening newsman traveled to Brooklyn to interview the Mama and Papa of this Internet sensation

“Marcel has plenty of spunk, which he brought to his interview with Williams. When asked if having just one eye has affected him in any way, Marcel returned, “Has having one nose affected you in any way, Brian?”

The conversation made Williams chortle. He even hinted that he and his colleagues could learn a thing or two from Marcel. “A lot of network primetime shows would kill for 14 million plus viewers,” Williams said. “When the second installment hit the web, it had more viewers by its first night than a lot of popular cable news shows and it’s already up to three million.”

“Rock Center” debuted in November with 4.1 million total viewers.”


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The Evening Report for Tuesday December 13

21 DAYS UNTIL IOWA

JUST IN: Conservative activist and former Delaware senate candidate Christine O’Donnell tonight announced her endorsement of Mitt Romney on FOX News. And tonight, the Romney campaign is TRUMPETING the endorsement.

TOP STORY: The House passed a payroll tax cut extension this evening; it is considered dead on arrival in Senate.

THE VOTE: 234-to-193. 10 Democrats joined 224 Republicans in backing the measure, while 14 Republicans and 179 Democrats voted no.

WHAT’S NEXT: Unclear. Democrats are using as leverage in the debate over the payroll tax cut the omnibus appropriations bill which will fund the government for the remainder of the fiscal year.

That bill is ready to be filed and considered and has bipartisan support. But Senate Majority Leader Reid doesn’t want to bring it to the floor until there is an agreement on the tax cut, as the omnibus is the last remaining “must-pass” item before the holiday recess. That despite the fact the tax cut expires on 12/31. The current continuing resolution funding the government expires on Friday night, 12/16.

TRUMP’S FIRED- Today the man who has played an outsized role in the Republican primary so far said he was pulling out of his own debate, which was set to be held in Iowa two weeks from tonight sponsored by Newsmax. Only Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum had agreed to participate.

GETTING LOCAL- President Obama conducted interviews with four regional network affiliates today. The White House Communications Office has scheduled these block interviews with TV stations from around the country about twice a month, allowing the President to sit for questions with reporters outside of the White House Press Corps.

Today he was interviewed on WVEC (Norfolk, VA), WEAR (Pennsacola, FL), KOAA (Colorado Springs, CO) and KIMO (Seattle, WA).

HERE’S HOW KOAA-NBC5-Coloardo Springs led their 5pm broadcast tonight, with a clip of President Obama’s interview with a local news anchor saying “Colorado, I always like to think, is the future of America” then a 3-part split screen with video from the interview, a live picture of the press briefing, and B-roll of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building. Then, local reporter Rob Quirk live from the North Lawn of The White House.

A theme for this round of regional television interviews was the end of the war in Iraq. THE WHITE HOUSE has released an interactive timeline that walks through the President’s speeches and decision-points on Iraq since taking office at whitehouse.gov/iraq

DEFENSE SECRETARY LEON PANETTA made a previously unannounced visit to Afghanistan today

J.W. MARRIOTT, JR. announced today that he will retire as CEO of MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL, the international hotel chain his parents started and which is headquartered in Bethesda, MD.

The Washington Post reports on the end of an era of a local business leader:

“Throughout the growth of his family’s company and the industry, there was Mr. Marriott, as his devoutly loyal employees call him, espousing his family’s simple maxim that if you take care of your employees, your employees will take care of your customers, and your customers will come back.

That philosophy still permeates the company — which is now worth nearly $10 billion and employs 129,000 people — after countless nights of putting heads in beds. Arne Sorenson, a trusted Marriott lieutenant for more than a decade, will become chief executive in March, the first non-Marriott to run the company. J.W. Marriott, known as Bill, will become executive chairman.”

TODAY ON THE STREET- from CNBC- “Wall Street sold off sharply in the final hour of trade after the Federal Reserve delivered little hope that it would turn on the easing spigots anytime soon and as a formerly rosy holiday retail season suddenly turned gloomy.

Major averages closed just off their lows from the day in a selloff that began shortly after the Fed’s Open Market Committee released its meeting statement shortly after 2. The red numbers accelerated into the close as banks and energy — leaders during a morning rally — turned tail and dropped sharply.”

  • DOW down 66
  • NASDAQ down 33
  • S&P 500 down 11

CAMPAIGN 2012- THREE WEEKS UNTIL IOWA CAUCUS NIGHT

GINGRICH STAFFER OUT IN IOWA- Following a Des Moines Register report that a staffer for the Gingrich Campaign raised questions about Mitt Romney’s Mormon faith, the campaign today fired the staffer.

Via POLITICO: Craig Bergman agreed to step away from his role with Newt 2012 today,” Gingrich spokseman RC Hammond said in a statement. “He made a comment to a focus group prior to becoming an employee that is inconsistent with Newt 2012’s pledge to run a positive and solutions orientated campaign.” 

GINGRICH TOPS ROMNEY BY 17 POINTS in new NBC NEWS/WALL STREET JOURNAL POLL (a national survey) released tonight at 6:30pm.

  • GINGRICH 40
  • ROMNEY 23
  • PAUL 9
  • BACHMANN 8
  • PERRY 6
  • HUNTSMAN 5
  • SANTORUM 3

THREE POINTS:

1/ It’s the first time that Gingrich has topped 40 points in a national survey.
2/ Romney remains mired in the low to mid 20s.
3/ The field is separating between Newt/Romney and everyone else, with Ron Paul currently in third place, 14 points behind Romney

In IOWA, Gingrich has a 12-point lead over Romney according to a Real Clear Politics average of recent polls
In NEW HAMPSHIRE, Romney has a 10-point lead over Gingrich, with Paul in 3rd and Huntsman in 4th.
In SOUTH CAROLINA, Gingrich has almost a 20-point lead over Romney.

HARD HITTING AD by RON PAUL in IOWA “Selling Access

As one political observer put it today “we didn’t know Ron Paul could create an ad that good”

FINALLY.…No Labels, the 501(c)(4) organization formed about a year ago with the lofty goal of bringing Republicans and Democrats together, today took their first tangible step at relevance in a crowded political environment, releasing a blueprint for reforms that Congress can make to the way it does business, unveiling a 12-step action plan to “Make Congress Work” at nolabels.org/work including

1/ No Budget, No Pay- members of Congress would not be paid if the annual Congressional budget process wasn’t completed on time
6/ Question Time for the President- a monthly forum for Members of Congress to ask questions of the President, a la Prime Minister’s Questions
8/ No Pledge But the Oath of Office
10/ Bipartisan Seating
11/ Formation of a Bipartisan Leadership  Committee

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The Evening Report for Sunday December 11

23 DAYS UNTIL IOWA

BIG PICTURE- “Political winds shift to Democrats”- The Hill-

“President Obama is in better shape at the prospect of a prolonged GOP primary battle between former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and Mitt Romney. Democrats in the House have been buoyed by a series of court decisions on redistricting and Senate Democrats have recently landed potentially strong recruits in conservative-leaning states.

Democrats on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue have seized on the payroll tax extension, which has divided the GOP Voter angst at Washington is extremely high, though it is unclear which party will feel the most of the public’s wrath next November.

The political atmosphere is clearly volatile. A couple months ago, Republicans were optimistic that they had a good chance of running the White House and both chambers of Congress in January, 2013. But since then, that optimism has waned.

PRESIDENT OBAMA was interviewed by Steve Kroft on 60 Minutes tonight.

Excerpts:

OBAMA: Look, the problem is, is that our politics has gotten to the point, where we can’t have an honest conversation about the greatest income inequality since the 1920s. And we can’t have an honest conversation about the irresponsibility that resulted in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, without somebody sayin’ that somehow we’re bein’ divisive. No, we’re bein’ honest about what happened and we’ve gotta be honest about how we move forward.

KROFT: Well, do you think that you might have the unemployment rate down to eight percent by the time the election rolls around?

OBAMA: I think it’s possible. But, you know, I’m not in the job of prognosticating on the economy.

KROFT: There’s a general sense that the stimulus didn’t work…

Obama: Let me stop you there, Steve. First of all, there’s not a general perception that the stimulus didn’t work. You’ve got John McCain’s former economist and a whole series of prominent economists, who say that it created or saved three million jobs and prevented us from goin’ into a Great Depression. That works. So that’s not true.

KROFT: Why do you think you deserve to be re-elected? What have you accomplished?

OBAMA: Not only saving this country from a Great Depression. Not only saving the auto industry. But putting in place a system in which we’re gonna start lowering health care costs and you’re never gonna go bankrupt because you get sick or somebody in your family gets sick. Makin’ sure that we have reformed the financial system, so we never again have taxpayer-funded bailouts and the system is more stable and secure.

Ending Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell. Decimating al Qaeda, including Bin Laden being taken off the field. But when it comes to the economy, we’ve got a lot more work to do. And we’re— we’re gonna keep on at it.

MEANWHILE..in IOWA, the Republican Presidential Candidates debated on Saturday night, their 12th debate of the primary season. Maggie Habberman in POLITICO has seven takeaways

1. Mitt Romney had a $10,000 unforced error
2. Newt Gingrich accomplished what he needed to
3. Gingrich is testing how far right a GOP candidate can go on Israel
4. Rick Perry still has some game
5. Michele Bachmann is the only one invoking Herman Cain
6. The Jon Huntsman-Newt Gingrich debate just got more interesting [this is happening tomorrow night in New Hampshire]
7. Ron Paul gets his due

BIG PICTURE- “Gingrich and Romney poised for drawn-out primary fight for delegates”- Alexander Bolton- The Hill-

“A little-noticed change in Republican Party rules last year means almost all of the states holding caucuses and primaries before April 1 will allocate their delegates proportionally.

This will make it very difficult for Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney to land a lights-out punch early in the contest. Unless one candidate dominates the first several caucuses and primaries, the race could easily stretch into April and beyond, say GOP veterans.Of the states holding primaries or caucuses before March, only Florida and Arizona will allocate all delegates to the candidate who wins the state.

This will make the Sunshine State a big prize in the race for delegates. But will not give Gingrich, Romney or any other candidate who may surge to the front a decisive advantage. The winner of Florida will collect 50 delegates, instead of the state’s usual 99, because of a penalty imposed on the state for advancing its primary to Jan. 31.

Arizona lost half of its 58 delegates by moving its presidential primary to February 28.  There too the winner will collect them all, according to a state party spokesman.

To clinch the nomination, a candidate will need 1143 delegates, according to a Republican National Committee memo.

By March 1, only 146 delegates will have been allocated from the primaries in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Candidates will lay claim to a portion of the 156 delegates in Iowa, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota and Nevada but these are caucus states and they will not set the final allocation of delegates until state conventions set for later 2012.

BUSINESS BRIEF- Lehman to use liquidation money to increase share in Archstone- Business Week-

“Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which has court approval for a $65 billion liquidation plan, will ask a judge to let it use $1.3 billion of estate money to increase its stake in Archstone, its biggest real estate asset, according to a person familiar with the planned bid.”

AT THE BOX OFFICE this weekend

1/ New Year’s Eve- $13.7 million
2/ The Sitter- $10 million
3/ Twilight Saga, Breaking Dawn- $7.9 million
4/ The Muppets- $7 million
5/ Arthur’s Christmas- $6.6 million

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL- In the 3rd, it’s Giants 15/Cowboys 20

SI.COM- “Broncos’ spectacular, improbable run continues”-

“Sometime down the road, when all the Tim Tebow hysteria wears off a bit — maybe when Denver gets knocked out of the playoffs or in the lull of the offseason — we’ll all look back and appreciate this Broncos run for what it really is:

A spectacular, if not wholly unexplainable, sports experience.

This is right up there with Butler making a run to the NCAA Tournament final or that wild, ridiculous final day of the 2011 baseball season. Whether you love or hate Tebow and the Broncos, there is just no way you can sit still and watch these games without showing any emotion.

It defies explanation how Denver has risen to 8-5, and Sunday’s 13-10 overtime win over the Bears has to rank at the top of the Broncos’ list of miraculous outcomes…


Before, when Tebow pulled rabbit after rabbit out of his hat, it was easy enough to chalk it up to Denver’s new quarterback giving the entire team a jolt — more confidence that, no matter what, the game was never out of reach. That’s all still true, but the reason this Broncos run has continued goes beyond that.

What’s happening now is that opposing teams are starting to buy in, too. No one will ever admit to it, of course, but Tebow is in the league’s head.”

The Evening Report for Thursday December 08

26 DAYS UNTIL IOWA

TOP STORY: Shooting at Virginia Tech- A VT campus police officer on a routine traffic stop was shot dead today by a gunmen, who police believe later shot himself on the campus of the Blacksburg, Virginia university that is the site of the worst school shooting in American history, on April 16, 2007.

JUST IN: Police have identifed the slain police officer as 39-year old Deriek Crouse. He is survived by his wife and five children.

From The Washington Post:

“A routine traffic stop at Virginia Tech turned violent Thursday, leaving a police officer and his assailant dead and the campus on lockdown, a scenario reminiscent of the 2007 massacre that claimed 33 lives and redefined how universities respond to emergencies.

The mayhem began about 12:15 p.m., when a Virginia Tech patrol officer stopped a driver at the university’s coliseum parking lot. Someone — not the person who was pulled over — walked up to the officer and shot him. The shooter then ran.

The officer’s body was found in a sprawling parking lot near the Virginia Tech stadium. The gunman’s body, along with a weapon, were found in another parking lot nearby, law enforcement and government officials said. Authorities say they think he killed himself as police closed in. They would not say whether he was a student.”

TONIGHT normal operations have resumed on the Virginia Tech with the most recent message from the University reading:

“Virginia Tech Police, in conjunction with other law enforcement agencies, have determined that there is no longer an active threat or a need to secure in place. Resume normal activities.”

SENATE BLOCKS CORDRAY NOMINATION: Voting 53-47 and failing to reach the 60 votes necessary to overcome a Republican-led filibuster, the Senate today refused to move forward with the nomination of Richard Cordray to be the first commissioner of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

The vote, while expected, was used as leverage by the President, who went into the Press Briefing Room of The White House at 11:30am- minutes after the vote- to lambast Senate Republicans. Many expect that the President may move to nominate Cordray via recess appointment over the holidays, if the Senate adjourns.

FROM THE PRESIDENTS REMARKS:

“This morning, Senate Republicans blocked his nomination, refusing to let the Senate even go forward with an up or down vote on Mr. Cordray.  This makes absolutely no sense.

There is no reason why Mr. Cordray should not be nominated, and should not be confirmed by the Senate, and should not be doing his job right away in order to carry out his mandate and his mission.

So I just want to send a message to the Senate:  We are not giving up on this.  We’re going to keep on going at it.  We are not going to allow politics as usual on Capitol Hill to stand in the way of American consumers being protected by unscrupulous financial operators.  And we’re going to keep on pushing on this issue.”

ON TAX CUTS

The President also continued his pitch for Congress to pass an extension of the payroll tax cut, an issue that many political analysts say he has a leading position on.

“And I just want to make clear:  This is not about me.  They shouldn’t extend the payroll tax cut for me.  They shouldn’t extend unemployment insurance for me.  This is for 160 million people who, in 23 days, are going to see their taxes go up if Congress doesn’t act.  This is for 5 million individuals who are out there looking for a job and can’t find a job right now in a tough economy who could end up not being able to pay their bills or keep their house if Congress doesn’t act.

So rather than trying to figure out what can they extract politically from me in order to get this thing done, what they need to do is be focused on what’s good for the economy, what’s good for jobs and what’s good for the American people.

And I made very clear I do not expect Congress to go home unless the payroll tax cut is extended and unless unemployment insurance is extended.  It would be wrong for families, but it would also be wrong for the economy as a whole”

ON KEEPING CONGRESS IN SESSION THROUGH CHRISTMAS

“With respect to my vacation, I would not ask anybody to do something I’m not willing to do myself.  So I know some of you might have been looking forward to a little sun and sand — but the bottom line is, is that we are going to stay here as long as it takes to make sure that the American people’s taxes don’t go up on January 1st, and to make sure that folks who desperately need unemployment insurance get that help. And there’s absolutely no excuse for us not getting it done.”

ON PLAN B

In his press conference, the President also affirmed support for Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius and her decision yesterday to overrule a FDA recommendation and restrict access to the Morning After Pill, also known as “Plan B”

THE OSAMA CARD

But this morning’s press conference might be remembered most because the President responded to his Republican rivals who have questioned his foreign policy credentials by referencing his Administration’s successful killing of Osama bin Laden. The President has only referenced the killing a few times, and never so explicitly in this political context.

“Ask Osama bin Laden, and the 22 out of 30 top Al Qaeda leaders who have been taken off the field whether I engage in appeasement — or whoever is left out there, ask them about that.”

WALL STREET:

  • DOW down 198
  • NASDAQ down 53
  • S&P 500 down 27

CAMPAIGN 2012:

SANTORUM NABS BIG ENDORSEMENT- Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz is set to endorse Santorum on Friday

RICK PERRY is beginning a bus tour on Saturday across the state of Iowa, leading up to the January 3rd caucuses

As MITT ROMNEY sharpens his attack against frontrunner NEWT GINGRICH, Gingrich is trying to stay above the fray, telling reporters in South Carolina today, “We’re gonna stay positive. All I’m gonna say is, we’re gonna stay positive. We’re gonna stay solution-oriented and talk about what America needs to do. And the only opponent I have is Barack Obama.”

THE NEXT DEBATE is Saturday, 9pm ET, nationally televised on ABC News and sponsored by the Iowa Republican Party.

In next week’s edition, TIME Magazine goes behind the scenes of the Obama Campaign’s war room, including this passage:

“Obama’s guerrilla war on Republicans is being waged on three fronts. At the White House, senior aides including David Plouffe oversee a master strategy and communicate most often with the President, while the growing Chicago operation focuses on rapid responses to candidate attacks on Obama.

The Dems’ attacks come from the second floor of the DNC headquarters, a few blocks south of the Capitol, where communications director Brad Woodhouse oversees a daily flood of biting e-mails, ads and Web videos.

A sign of his instincts: his glass-walled office is plastered with a half-dozen images of kittens in fields, kittens purring for the camera, kittens pawing each other. Look closely and one of the images stands out: a Photo­shopped picture of George W. Bush biting into a kitten like a cob of corn, a clear sign that this is not the workplace for the faint of heart. It is an oft repeated maxim of Obamaland’s that the country is closely divided and the final count next November is likely to be so too. “

FINALLY...HOW TO GET FIRED, QUICKLY…From the Hill’s Justin Sink

“Three staffers for Rep. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.) were fired Thursday after a series of tweets in which they insulted the congressman, complained about their work and described drinking on the job.

“We became aware of the issue through a tweet referencing an article about the incident. Congressman Larsen immediately decided to fire the three staff members involved in the incident,” Larsen spokesman Bryan Thomas said in a statement.

“Congressman Larsen is disappointed by their actions and takes this very seriously. He has made it clear that he will not tolerate this kind of behavior.”

The tweets — which belonged to legislative assistants Seth Burroughs and Elizabeth Robbee and legislative correspondent Ben Byers — repeatedly referenced “December to Remember,” a campaign devised by the staffers to spend the final month of the legislative session in what the Daily Marker called “a state of perpetual debauchery.”

According to the tweets, the “December to Remember” began with a round of shots on the steps of the Cannon House Office building. From there, staffers  sneaked drinks throughout the workday, watched music videos on YouTube, and lobbed insults at their bosses.

Burroughs, in tweets that spanned multiple months, referred to Larsen as an “idiot” and a “selfish a———.” He also described sneaking shots of Jack Daniels in his coffee and destroying his work Blackberry.”

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