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4 Days To Go…Romney’s Commanding Lead, Paul Attacks Santorum, New Book Damaging for Obama White House, New Job Numbers Show Improving Economy, Justin Bieber’s Tattoo: The Evening Report for Friday January 06 2012

4 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
15 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
18 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
25 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

FRIDAY’S EARLY EDITION

TOP STORY: The Labor Department reported this morning that the US economy gained 200,000 jobs last month, which dropped the unemployment rate to 8.5%.

It is the lowest level of unemployment since February 2009, the month that President Obama took office. It is also the sixth consecutive month of private sector job growth.

Still, 5.6 million Americans have been out of work for six months or longer, chronically unemployed and the unemployment rate does not reflect the millions of Americans who are no longer counted as part of the labor pool because they have dropped out and stopped looking for work.

PRESIDENT OBAMA, for whom the economy holds the key to re-election, trumpeted today’s news as he took a political victory lap of sorts at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in Washington, where he visited the newly appointed Commissioner, Richard Cordray. 

“This morning we learned that American businesses added another 212,000 jobs last month. All together more private-sector jobs were created in 2011 than any year since 2005,” he said.

“There are a lot of people that are still hurting out there, after losing more than 8 million jobs in the recession. Obviously, we have a lot more work to do. But it is important for the American people to recognize we added 3.2 million new private-sector jobs in the last 22 months, nearly 2 million new jobs last year alone….

“One of reasons is the tax cut we put in place last year.When Congress returns, they should extend the payroll tax cut all year. There should not be delay, there should not be a lot of drama.”

COMING ATTRACTION: The debate over extending the payroll tax cut through the end of the year will resume when Congress returns to town at the end of the month. Some believe that it is the only significant piece of legislation that Congress may move this year.

WALL STREET: for all the seemingly good economic news this week, the Dow managed to end the day slightly lower.

  • DOW down 56
  • NASDAQ down 3
  • S&P 500 up 4

CAMPAIGN 2012

Just four days to go before New Hampshire votes and the politics of debate-prep and expectations setting drove the day today

ANOTHER SERIAL HYPOCRITE- and the latest in a theme of Ron Paul’s attack ads against fellow Republicans in the race. Today, the Paul campaign announced a $250,000 ad buy in South Carolina- home to Saturday January 21st primary- attacking Rick Santorum and calling his a “record of betrayal”  

WASHINGTON POST HEADLINE TONIGHT AND THE SUNDAY SHOWS THIS WEEKEND- Romney Looking To Wrap Things Up By End of Month- from Philip Rucker in Tilton, NH

“Buoyed by a narrow win in the Iowa caucuses and his commanding lead in the New Hampshire polls, Romney has turned his attention to South Carolina, where he is dispatching a slew of high-profile surrogates and relocating his staff ahead of the Jan. 21 primary. Looking further ahead, Romney has begun a massive advertising blitz in Florida and launched an aggressive outreach program to early voters in the state.

Romney campaign advisers insist they are taking the race one state at a time and not taking any contest for granted. Yet Republican observers see Romney executing an ambitious strategy that would quickly maximize his momentum and try to quash any further surges by his rivals.

“If Romney wins the first four states, he’ll be the de facto nominee of the party,” said Steve Schmidt, a senior strategist on Sen. John McCain’s 2008 campaign who is unaffiliated in the current race. Ed Rogers, another unaffiliated Republican strategist, said the notion that Romney may wrap up the nomination by Jan. 31 is “perfectly plausible.”

NEW POLLS OUT TODAY PROVIDE A SNAPSHOT OF THE RACE

ROMNEY UP BY 24 IN WMUR NH PRIMARY POLL: Romney 44%, Paul 20%, Santorum 8%, Gingrich 8%, HUNTSMAN 7%, Perry 1%

AND BY THE SAME MARGIN IN RASMUSSEN’S NH SURVEY: Romney 42%, Paul 18%, Santorum 13%, Huntsman 12%, Gingrich 8%, Perry 1%

IN SOUTH CAROLINA, CNN HAS HIM LEADING SANTORUM BY 18: Romney 37%, Santorum 19%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 12%, Perry 5%, Huntsman 1%

BUT RASMUSSEN SAYS ITS CLOSER, WITH ROMNEY ONLY LEADING BY 3: Romney 27%,Santorum 24%, Gingrich 18% , Paul 11%, Perry 5%, Huntsman 2%

DRIVING THE POLITICAL WORLD- The New York Times’ Jodi Kantor is out with a new book- which paints an unflattering view of the Obama Administration, with sources deep inside The West Wing. President and Mrs. Obama were not interviewed for the book.

WHAT WE’RE LEARNING- Former Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel offered his resignation to the President in the winter of 2010 at the end of the divisive health care debate. Kantor also exposes a rife between Emanual and First Lady Michelle Obama. From the Huffington Post’s White House Correspondent Sam Stein, reporting on the book:

“Once the administration began, the frictions only escalated. Emanuel rejected Michelle Obama’s efforts to be part of his 7:30 a.m. staff meeting. The administration did not outfit her with a speechwriter for some time. And the first lady’s office grew so isolated from the rest of the presidential orbit that aides there began, as Kantor writes, “referring to the East Wing as ‘Guam’ — pleasant but powerless.

Michelle and Rahm Emanuel had almost no bond; their relationship was distant and awkward from the beginning. She had been skeptical of him when he was selected, and now he returned the favor; he was uneasy about first ladies in general, several aides close to him said, based on clashes with Hillary Clinton in the 1990s that became so severe that she had tried to fire him from her husband’s administration,” writes Kantor. “Now Emanuel was chief of staff, a position that almost never included an easy relationship with the first lady. They were the president’s two spouses, in a sense, one public and official and one private and informal.”

AND MORE ABOUT THE FIRST LADY “Michelle Obama, who came to politics skeptically but saw her husband as someone capable of lofty achievements, lashed out against her isolation. She sent emails to [Obama Counselor Valarie] Jarrett when she had complaints about news coverage, which Jarrett would forward to others after removing the first lady’s name from them. When she couldn’t wedge herself into her husband’s schedule, she would send her missives to Alyssa Mastromonaco, the president’s director of scheduling. The emails, Kantor writes, “were so stern that Mastromonaco showed them around to colleagues, unsure of how to respond to her boss’s wife’s displeasure.”

THIS BOOK has the power to drive the White House off its new, revived, 2012 message, if the Administration allows it to do so. Watch to see over the next week how the White House officially responds, and what unofficial message they send as they play damage control.

AND FINALLY…The Bieb’s Got The Ink. NBC Entertainment reports:

“If you ever questioned the Biebs’ religious beliefs, this oughta clear it up for you.

In addition to his dove and Hebrew script of Jesus’ name on his rib cage ( matching with pops…awww), Justin Bieber showed off his new ink on the back of his calf while going to Shakey’s Pizza with his dad and some friends today.

The 17-year-old got a portrait of Jesus Christ’s face. Is it shocking?

To some it may seem that way, but Bieber has never been shy when it comes to religion. His movie, “Never Say Never,” even has some Christian reflection.

“People will walk away (from the movie) knowing faith is very important to him,” Scooter Braun, Bieber’s manager and one of the film’s producers told USA Today. “As a Christian, he’s someone to look up to…When [fans] are getting the real person is when they can connect to that person.”

“I believe that Jesus died on a cross for my sins,” Bieber told Billboard last November. “He’s the reason that I’m here.”

Here We Go…Gingrich Says He Will Not Win Iowa…Romney Says He Will…Santorum Under Scrutiny…Paul’s Closing Argument…Iowa Caucus History….New Kotecki Parody Video…The Evening Report for Monday January 02, 2012

1 DAY UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
8 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
19 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
22 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS

QUOTE OF THE DAY (SHOT) “I don’t think I’m going to win,” Newt Gingrich, to ABC News about his chances in tomorrow’s Iowa Caucus

AND/BUT (CHASER) ”We may pull off one of the greatest upsets in the history of the Iowa caucuses,” Newt Gingrich in a tele-town hall later tonight

QUOTE OF THE DAY RUNNER UP: “You got a name? You got a name? You got a name?” Rick Perry to POLITICO’s Mike Allen after being challenged to answer questions about the loyalty of his campaign advisors.

AND FINALLY...RICK SANTORUM SAID THE FOLLOWING TODAY ”I don’t want to make black people’s lives better by giving them somebody else’s money; I want to give them the opportunity to go out and earn the money.”

TODAY ON THE TRAIL- All over the state. From the Washington Post’s team of political reporters group-filing tomorrow’s A1 lead piece:

“Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s agenda included four cities, spread over 269 miles. Former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.) drove a 171-mile circuit around Iowa’s navel. And Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.), the third candidate in the lead pack, began a long trek across northeastern part of the state, making five stops over 391 miles.”

“Over the past few months, Iowa has embraced and then rejected four charismatic front-runners: Rep. Michele Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich and pizza executive Herman Cain.”

KEY PASSAGE: “Now, the state seems set to split its vote among three candidates chosen, instead, for the ideas they represent.

For Romney, those are steadiness and electability.

For Paul, they are small government and personal liberty.

And Santorum’s appeal is based on his socially conservative views on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.”

WHAT WE MISSED: Newt Gingrich is recovering from the flu, which his campaign says was particularly bad on Friday and Saturday last week

THE LATEST FROM SANTORUM- He’s facing very tough questions about his endorsement of Mitt Romney in 2008 and about his position on abortion- and conflicting statements he gave on both during a Meet the Press interview yesterday. As Santorum is surging in the polls, he is now undergoing intensive media scrutiny.

THE LATEST FROM ROMNEY- He won the day. According to POLITICO’s Alexander Burns.

“…There were three good omens for Romney Monday that suggest no matter who wins in Iowa, he’ll be in good shape for the long haul.

The first was a harsh attack on Rick Santorum, mounted by Rick Perry on cable TV and on the campaign trail. The Texan blasted Santorum for having “raised the debt limit more than Obama” and supporting “the bridge to nowhere in Arizona” (he meant Alaska.) Both Perry and his wife, Anita, vowed to press on after Iowa, taking their campaign to South Carolina and also New Hampshire, where Perry isn’t scheduled to appear this week.

Perry wasn’t the only other Republican attacking Santorum. In a second Romney-friendly development, Ron Paul’s campaign got in on the action, with national chairman Jesse Benton accusing Santorum of having a “horrible record on the Second Amendment,” and telling POLITICO Santorum’s record on “so many other issues is so poor he can’t stand up to real criticism.”

And in a third, counterintuitively pro-Romney turn of events, Newt Gingrich vowed to stay in the race past Iowa and train his guns more intently on the GOP front-runner, whose supporters Gingrich blames for tearing down his own campaign.”

AND THEN ROMNEY PREDICTED VICTORY, TELLLING SUPPORTERS TONIGHT

“We’re going to win this thing with all our passion and strength and do everything we can to get this campaign on the right track to go across the nation and to pick up the states and to get the ballots I need and the votes I need to become our nominee. That’s what we’re going to get, with your help.

THE LATEST FROM PAUL- National Journal- “Paul Battles Assumptions He Can’t Win Outside Iowa”

“Paul has sought to defy the conventional wisdom that his campaign will end in Iowa by beginning to air television ads in New Hampshire, which votes Jan. 10, and in South Carolina, which holds its primary on Jan. 21”

Indeed, Paul is on the air in New Hampshire with what his campaign his calling his “closing argument”

INSIDER ADVANTAGE POLL TODAY GIVES ADVANTAGE ROMNEY, but the top three are well within the margin of error

Romney 23%
Paul 22%
Santorum 18%
Gingrich 16%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 2%

PPP POLL TODAY GIVES ADVANTAGE PAUL, but still, we have a three-way race on our hands. 

Paul 20%
Romney 19%
Santorum 18%
Gingrich 14%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 8%
Huntsman 4%

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT

  • Caucus officially starts at 8pm.
  • The first results should start coming in at about 8:30pm.
  • Four years ago, Sen. Obama’s victory in Iowa was declared at 9:25pm ET.
  • In 2008, Republicans saw a record caucus turnout of 118,000+ and many party officials also expect a record or near-record turnout this year.
  • There are more than 1,700 precincts in Iowa that will be holding caucuses tomorrow night.
  • In the modern primary system, only one Republican has won Iowa and gone on to be elected President (George W. Bush in 2000)
  • In 2008, John McCain became the only Republican to finish outside of the Iowa top 3 and still go on to become the nominee
  • Herbert Hoover is the only Iowan to be elected President

2008 REPUBLICAN IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS

Mike Huckabee 34.4%
Mitt Romney 25.2%
Fred Thompson 13.4%
John McCain 13%
Ron Paul 9.9%
Rudy Giuliani 3.4%
Turnout: 118,411

2008 Iowa Presidential Vote: Barack Obama 828,940 (54%) John McCain 682,379 (44%)

THE EVENING REPORT’S CONVENTIONAL WISDOM:

Mitt Romney will become the Republican nominee. He may face a challenge from the Republican right over the next six weeks but it will not be long, drawn out or fatal. A Santorum or Paul win in Iowa ultimately helps Romney. Santorum doesn’t have the organization to compete nationally and he will be crushed in New Hampshire next week. Paul is too crazy to ever win the Republican nomination or the presidency. It will be clear that Romney is the nominee by the State of the Union in three weeks. He may lose some states during the primary season and because of the way the party is awarding delegates, it may not be until March when he officially becomes the nominee, but everyone will know in a matter of days or weeks that 2012 will be Obama v. Romney.

COMING ATTRACTION: GOP BATTLE PLAN AGAINST OBAMA: USE HIS OWN WORDS AGAINST HIM- The Washington Post Monday top story-

“GOP officials in Washington are quietly and methodically finishing what operatives are calling “the book” — 500 pages of Obama quotes and video links that will form the backbone of the party’s attack strategy against the president leading up to Election Day 2012.

The document, portions of which were reviewed by The Washington Post, lays out how GOP officials plan to use Obama’s words and voice as they build an argument for his defeat: that he made specific promises and entered office with lofty expectations and has failed to deliver on both.

Republican officials say they will leverage the party’s newly catalogued video library containing every publicly available utterance from Obama since his 2008 campaign. Television and Internet ads will juxtapose specific Obama promises of job gains, homeowner assistance, help for people in poverty, lower health insurance premiums and stricter White House ethics standards against government data and news clippings that paint a different reality.

The decision by GOP officials to finalize a strategy at this stage underscores the view, in both parties, that the general-election campaign has begun — even if an official Republican nominee has not been selected.

The new GOP playbook is designed to take one of Obama’s great assets — the power of his oratory — and turn it into a liability. It details hundreds of potential targets, partially a result of a president who Republican strategists say is unusually prone to making detailed promises.”

FINALLY- Take a few minutes to think about how far we’ve come over the last six months leading up to tomorrow’s caucus- which itself is only the start of the Republican primary season. Through 13 debates, we’ve watched candidate after candidate rise and fall in public opinion polling. The title frontrunner has been awarded to Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney and, in the past week, we’ve seen the Santorum Surge. Tomorrow, Iowans caucus. And then, it’s on to New Hampshire…and South Carolina…and Florida…and Nevada…and…

WATCH- Political analyst & satirist James Kotecki today released a new video: The Iowa Surge Song (Old MacDonald Parody).

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4 Days To Go…Gingrich Tears Up On The Trail- and Romney Responds…Matt Romney Makes Birther Joke- and Obama Campaign Responds…What To Watch For This Weekend…NBC’s Caucus Briefing Book…The Evening Report for Friday December 30 2011

4 DAYS UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
11 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
22 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Politics has become a really nasty, vicious, negative business and I think it’s disgusting and I think it’s dishonest”- Newt Gingrich to ABC’s Jonathan Karl

HIGHLIGHTS FROM TODAY ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

GINGRICH TEARS UP- from The Washington Post-

“Gingrich was asked to speak about a time his mother affected him at the event sponsored by CafeMom, a social networking website for mothers.

You’ll get me all teary-eyed — Callista will tell you, I get teary-eyed every time we sing Christmas carols. My mother sang in the choir and loved singing in the choir,” Gingrich said, referring to his wife, as he fought back tears.

“But I identify my mother with being happy, loving life, having a sense of joy in her friends, but what she introduced me to, is late in her life she ended up in a long-term-care facility. She had bipolar disease, and depression, and she gradually acquired some physical ailments, and that introduced me to the issue of long-term care, which I did with [Former Nebraska Sen.] Bob Kerrey for three years, and that introduced me to the issue of Alzheimer’s, which I did with Bob Kerrey for three more years, and my whole emphasis on brain science comes indirectly from dealing with the real problems of real people in my family,” the former House Speaker continued, at moments stopping to cry.
The audience sympathetically cheered for Gingrich as he spoke about his mother.

“I do policy much easier than I do personal,” Gingrich joked.

WATCH VIDEO

FLASHBACKHillary Clinton January 2008, one day before the New Hampshire Primary that she went on to win- “This is very personal for me, it’s not just political, it’s not just public”

CHASER: Mitt Romney this evening at an event, via POLITICO’s Maggie Haberman:

“Here in Merrimack, Romney started talking about his parents and what they meant to him, and how they taught him to love America — and said, “No, no, I won’t cry.

ROMNEY SON MAKES A BIRTHER JOKE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE- via the Washington Post-

“He’s certainly not afraid of anything. He’s not hiding anything,” Matt Romney said in response to an query from an audience member on whether the former Massachusetts governor would release his tax returns. “You know, I heard someone suggest the other day that as soon as President Obama releases his grades and birth certificate and sort of a long list of things, then maybe he’d do it.”

Perhaps sensing trouble, the eldest Romney brother, Tagg, quickly jumped in.

“That was not my dad saying that,” he told the crowd.

“No, no, no, that was just a suggestion from someone else,” Matt Romney added.

AND THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN SEIZES ON IT- via ABC’s Jake Tapper-

“In a fundraising email, Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina pounced like a jungle caton a remark made by Mitt Romney’s son Matt, 40, seeking to paint his father as appealing to extreme elements.

“Friend,” wrote Messina in a mass email to supporters, “You’ve got to hear this. Asked at a Romney campaign event whether his father would follow decades of precedent and release his tax returns, Mitt Romney’s adult son Matt quoted the most recent Tea Party line, saying: ‘… As soon as President Obama releases his grades, and birth certificate, and sort of a long list of things, then maybe he will.’”

Asserted Messina, “This is how the Romney campaign thinks it’s going to win the Republican primary: by pandering to the dead-ender fringe of extremists who still question where the President was born. We can’t make them rewrite their talking points. But we can drive up the cost of this kind of politics.”

WELCOME TO THE GENERAL ELECTION

2012’s BIG STORY- RON PAUL TO AL HUNT ON POTENTIAL FOR A THIRD PARTY RUN ”I’ve never been an absolutist and say absolutely might or absolutely will, but I have no intention of doing. I can’t imagine it happening…we’re doing pretty well in the polls. So I’d better concentrate on the polls rather than on something like that.”

ROMNEY LEADING PAUL IN NBC/MARIST POLL IN IOWA

Romney 23%
Paul 21%
Santorum 15%
Perry 14%
Gingrich 13%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 2%

AND CONTINUES TO LEAD IN GALLUP DAILY TRACKING (NATIONAL)

Romney 26%
Gingrich 14%
Paul 11%
Perry 7%
Bachmann 5%
Santorum 5%
Huntsman 2%

TOMORROW at 7pm, the final Des Moines Register poll before the Caucus is released. We’ll have the results in a special Saturday edition of THE EVENING REPORT.

YOU’LL SEE THIS STORY AGAIN- Huffington Post’s Sam Stein- “Obama Campaign In Iowa Hopes To Flex Organizing Muscle

“The Obama reelection campaign is paying significant attention to the Jan. 3 caucus, not just as a means of assessing future competition but also as a dry run for the 2012 general election. The president will technically be on the ballot. And his team would love nothing more than for him to scoop up more votes than some of the top names in the GOP primary. But the prevailing concern is to reengage the network of Hawkeye State supporters who initially pushed Barack Obama to the White House and to bring new ones into the fold.

In reporting on the Obama reelection team’s efforts in Iowa earlier this week, Politico referred to their work as a “shadow campaign.” In actuality, reelection aides are hoping that it ends up being a fairly open illustration of the very different styles of the president and his opponents.

“We have built this campaign from the ground up just like in ‘07 and ‘08,” said one Obama campaign official. “And in ‘07 and ‘08, it left a legacy in states in which we had a really strong field program and were able to engage volunteers. And what is clear is that Romney and the other candidates, rather than investing in organization and supporters on the ground, have instead competed on the air and on a national stage, and they haven’t left a legacy of a strong organization in states across the country. And they are not going to be able to just flip a switch. It takes time.”

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND: Endorsements matter in the hours before the Caucus. Also watch the DMR poll tomorrow night. This year’s caucus is unusual in that it falls the day after a long holiday weekend. Caucus-goers will be at home, likely watching local media, so small stories could make a big difference if they get significant media attention.

MUST-READ: NBC’s “Decision 2012: Iowa Caucus & New Hampshire Primary Guide” (.pdf) This is the briefing book NBC political reporters and anchors are reading this weekend to prepare for the next two weeks of political coverage.

WALL STREET- the final trading day of the year- from CNBC

  • DOW down 69
  • NASDAQ down 9
  • S&P 500 down 5

DOW closed at 12217.56, finishing 1.4% higher for the month of December and 5.5% higher for the year.
NASDAQ closed at 2605.15, down 1.8% this year.
S&P 500 closed at 1257.60, essentially unchanged for 2011.

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The Evening Report for Wednesday December 14 

20 DAYS UNTIL IOWA

50 HOURS UNTIL A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

TOP STORY: Brinkmanship by both parties on Capitol Hill has set the federal government up for a potential shutdown effective Saturday morning after the Senate today rejected a House passed payroll tax bill, which also includes a provision speeding implementation of the controversial Keystone XL Pipeline.

This evening, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid went to the White House to meet with President Obama and then return to the Capitol to sit down with Republican leaders John Boehner and Mitch McConnell. This is at least the third time this year that the government has come within two days of a potential shutdown and, both times, a shutdown was avoided.

Conventional wisdom on the Hill remains that Congress will pass some sort of a continuing resolution before midnight on Friday, however, with only 50 hours remaining, nothing is certain.

TONIGHT’S DEVELOPMENT: Numerous reports say that Democrats are prepared to drop their proposal for a millionaire surtax to pay for extension of the payroll tax, a sign that with the impending holiday recess, the parties may be moving closer to a deal.

The Washington Post reports tonight:

“Taken together, the developments signaled the end game for a year of divided government — with a tea party-flavored majority in the House and Obama’s allies in the Senate — that has veered from near-catastrophe to last-minute compromise repeatedly since last January.

The rhetoric was biting at times.

“We have fiddled all year long, all year,” McConnell complained in a less-than-harmonious exchange on the Senate floor with Reid. He accused Democrats of “routinely setting up votes designed to divide us … to give the president a talking point out on the campaign trail.”

Reid shot back that McConnell had long ago declared Obama’s defeat to be his top priority. And he warned that unless Republicans show a willingness to bend, the country faces a government shutdown “that will be just as unpopular” as the two that occurred when Newt Gingrich was House speaker more than a decade ago.

It was a reminder — as if McConnell and current Speaker John Boehner of Ohio needed one — of the political debacle that ensued for Republicans when Gingrich was outmaneuvered in a showdown with former President Bill Clinton.”

GOVERNMENT PREPARES FOR POTENTIAL SHUTDOWN- The Washington Post’s Ed O’Keefe-

“Cabinet secretaries and agency heads planned to send an e-mail message to workers by close of business Wednesday informing them that a shutdown could occur, according to multiple administration officials familiar with the plans.

A shutdown would not apply to a wide swath of agencies and departments that already have full-year funding in place thanks to a partial spending bill that passed in November, including the departments of Agriculture, Commerce, House and Urban Development, Justice, State, and Transportation, NASA, and other smaller agencies covered by separate appropriations measures.

In a statement, Office of Management and Budget spokesman Kenneth Baer said Wednesday that “There is no reason for the government to shut down.”Congress could act quickly to pass a short- or long-term spending measure, Baer said, as they have seven times already this year.”

PRESIDENT OBAMA made his first trip as President to FORT BRAGG NORTH CAROLINA today, speaking to soldiers who have deployed to Iraq

WALL STREET TODAY- from CNBC- “Worries over European debt again plagued Wall Street, sending stocks down at the close for a third straight day in a selloff that also hit commodities and energy stocks hard.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 and Dow industrials lost about 1 percent each, with energy down nearly 3 percent. All 10 S&P 500 sectors were negative with materials and industrials also getting hammered. Financials and health care were closest to positive territory.”

  • DOW down 131
  • NASDAQ down 40
  • S&P 500 down 14

CAMPAIGN 2012:

QUOTE OF THE DAY- Romney interview with the New York Times-

    “Zany is not what we need in a president.”

    “Zany is great in a campaign. It’s great on talk radio. It’s great in print, it makes for fun reading. But in terms of a president, we need a leader, and a leader needs to be someone who can bring Americans together.

In IOWA tonight, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee did not give any clues as to which candidate he might be leaning towards endorsing, or even if he will endorse before the Caucus on January 3rd. Huckabee hosted the screening of a conservative film- “The Gift of Life”- in Des Moines attended by four presidential candidates- Santorum, Perry, Bachmann & Gingrich- tonight.

ROMNEY ATTACKS GINGRICH- in interview with CBS News-

    “[I was] frankly, very surprised that he would attack conservatism, he would attack free enterprise, he would attack capitalism. This is a party that believes in free enterprise.”

    Q: Is he in the wrong party?

    “Well, it depends on the day. I just think hes been unreliable in his support of conservative principles.”

ALSO

“Newt Gingrich has wealth from having worked in government. He’s a wealthy man, a very wealthy man. If you have a half a million dollar purchase from Tiffany’s, you’re not a middle-class American.”

TOMORROW NIGHT is the 13th Republican Presidential Candidates Debate of the 2012 primary- sponsored by FOX News and the Republican Party of Iowa- in Sioux City, Iowa.

THE EVENING REPORT will publish a special POST-DEBATE edition tomorrow night.

LEADING POLITICO TONIGHT- “Is Newt taking Iowa seriously enough?”- by Jonathan Martin-

“Gingrich’s return from the political grave has been premised on disregarding the practice of politics as usual, and he now seems to be betting that he can bypass the traditional, retail-focused path to victory in Iowa and still win. Asked if he was endangering his Iowa prospects, Gingrich acknowledged he was taking intense fire but said he’d ramp up his effort before January 3rd.

“I think Iowa’s going to be a challenge because you have everybody firing away simultaneously in a relatively small market,” the former speaker told reporters following his lecture here at the University of Iowa. “And so I think it’s going to require two weeks of my going around, telling the truth, letting people look at the negative ad, look at the truth and decide if they really want to give their vote to somebody who’s not telling the truth.”

Gingrich promised to do more retail events – he teased a post-Christmas bus tour – and said he’d do more ads.

But he also offered a mix of nonchalance and high-road confidence in explaining that he didn’t have enough money to match his rivals’ ad campaign and, in any event, wasn’t inclined to engage in traditional back-and-forth on the airwaves.”

REUTERS/IPSOS POLL HAS GINGRICH UP BY 10

  • GINGRICH 28
  • ROMNEY 18
  • PAUL 12
  • PERRY 12
  • BACHMANN 10
  • HUNTSMAN 5
  • SANTORUM 4

GALLUP TRACKING HAS GINGRICH UP BY 8

  • GINGRICH 31
  • ROMNEY 23
  • PAUL 9
  • BACHMANN 6
  • SANTORUM 4
  • HUNTSMAN 2

GENERAL ELECTION MASHUPS

OBAMA V. ROMNEY (USA TODAY) OBAMA: 47%, ROMNEY 46%
OBAMA V. GINGRICH (USA TODAY): OBAMA: 50% ROMNEY 44%

OBAMA V. ROMNEY (NBC/WSJ): OBAMA 47% ROMNEY 45%
OBAMA V GINGRICH (NBC/WSJ): OBAMA 51% GINGRICH 40%

OBAMA V ROMNEY (REUTERS) OBAMA 48% ROMNEY 40%
OBAMA V GINGRICH (REUTERS) OBAMA 51% GINGRICH 38%

FINALLY...

BRIAN WILLIAMS INTERVIEWS MARCEL THE SHELL. If you haven’t yet seen the video from Monday Night’s ROCK CENTER, America #1 evening newsman traveled to Brooklyn to interview the Mama and Papa of this Internet sensation

“Marcel has plenty of spunk, which he brought to his interview with Williams. When asked if having just one eye has affected him in any way, Marcel returned, “Has having one nose affected you in any way, Brian?”

The conversation made Williams chortle. He even hinted that he and his colleagues could learn a thing or two from Marcel. “A lot of network primetime shows would kill for 14 million plus viewers,” Williams said. “When the second installment hit the web, it had more viewers by its first night than a lot of popular cable news shows and it’s already up to three million.”

“Rock Center” debuted in November with 4.1 million total viewers.”


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The Evening Report for Tuesday December 06

28 DAYS UNTIL IOWA

TOP STORY: President Obama delivered a major speech today in Oswatomie, Kansas, the site of a speech by President Theordore Roosevelt on August 31, 1910 in which the 26th President laid out his vision for a “new nationalism.”

It is a theme that President Obama hopes to adopt as a central message of his 2012 presidential election campaign, and a defining vision for his administration. As such, it was the most significant speech the President has given in months- going back at least to the Address to a Joint Session of Congress in September on jobs and the economy.

FROM THE PRESIDENTS REMARKS:

“There’s been a great debate over the best way to restore growth and prosperity, restore balance, restore fairness. Throughout the country, it’s sparked protests and political movements—from the tea party to the people who’ve been occupying the streets of New York and other cities…

…But…this is not just another political debate. This is the defining issue of our time. This is a make-or-break moment for the middle class, and for all those who are fighting to get into the middle class…

I’m here in Kansas to reaffirm my deep conviction that we’re greater together than we are on our own. I believe that this country succeeds when everyone gets a fair shot, when everyone does their fair share, when everyone plays by the same rules. These aren’t Democratic values or Republican values. These aren’t 1 percent values or 99 percent values. They’re American values. And we have to reclaim them.”

ON ROOSEVELT

“Roosevelt also knew that the free market has never been a free license to take whatever you can from whomever you can. He understood the free market only works when there are rules of the road that ensure competition is fair and open and honest. And so he busted up monopolies, forcing those companies to compete for consumers with better services and better prices. And today, they still must. He fought to make sure businesses couldn’t profit by exploiting children or selling food or medicine that wasn’t safe. And today, they still can’t.”

ON REPUBLICAN OPPOSITION

“Now, just as there was in Teddy Roosevelt’s time, there is a certain crowd in Washington who, for the last few decades, have said, let’s respond to this economic challenge with the same old tune. “The market will take care of everything,” they tell us. If we just cut more regulations and cut more taxes — especially for the wealthy — our economy will grow stronger. Sure, they say, there will be winners and losers. But if the winners do really well, then jobs and prosperity will eventually trickle down to everybody else. And, they argue, even if prosperity doesn’t trickle down, well, that’s the price of liberty.

Now, it’s a simple theory. And we have to admit, it’s one that speaks to our rugged individualism and our healthy skepticism of too much government. That’s in America’s DNA. And that theory fits well on a bumper sticker. But here’s the problem: It doesn’t work. It has never worked. It didn’t work when it was tried in the decade before the Great Depression. It’s not what led to the incredible postwar booms of the ‘50s and ‘60s. And it didn’t work when we tried it during the last decade. I mean, understand, it’s not as if we haven’t tried this theory.

Remember in those years, in 2001 and 2003, Congress passed two of the most expensive tax cuts for the wealthy in history. And what did it get us? The slowest job growth in half a century. Massive deficits that have made it much harder to pay for the investments that built this country and provided the basic security that helped millions of Americans reach and stay in the middle class — things like education and infrastructure, science and technology, Medicare and Social Security.

ON INEQUALITY

“We simply cannot return to this brand of “you’re on your own” economics if we’re serious about rebuilding the middle class in this country. We know that it doesn’t result in a strong economy. It results in an economy that invests too little in its people and in its future. We know it doesn’t result in a prosperity that trickles down. It results in a prosperity that’s enjoyed by fewer and fewer of our citizens.

WHAT THIS SPEECH MEANS

For President Obama, the Osawatomie speech has the potential to be a watershed and a turning point.

If the President and his re-election campaign (and his Administration, for that matter) can capture the themes that he discussed today, put them in terms the average American will understand, and continue to hammer them repeatedly over the next eleven months, it will draw enough of a contrast between the President and his Republican opponent that places the President on the side of the average American, thereby paving his road to re-election.

We know the President can deliver a good speech- and he did again today- but we have also learned that his Administration has been remarkably weak at translating speeches into policy, and into winning arguments for those policies. If they fail to do so again with this idea of wealth inequality, economic fairness and “21st century new nationalism,” then today’s debate remains the same.

CAMPAIGN 2012


New polls out so far this week show one clear message: Newt Gingrich is leading the Republican presidential race. Some pundits are even going as far as saying the nomination is now Gingrich’s to lose.

While the Romney campaign contests this, they are clearly worried, making their candidate available to the media for the first time, today appearing on Neil Cavuto’s show on FOX News and on Sunday sitting down with Chris Wallace on FOX News Sunday, in what will be Romney’s first Sunday morning talk show interview in more than 20 months.

ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST IOWA POLL

  • Gingrich 33%
  • Paul 18%
  • Romney 18%
  • Perry 11%
  • Bachmann 8%
  • Santorum 7%
  • Huntsman 2%

CBS/NEW YORK TIMES IOWA POLL

  • Gingrich 31%
  • Romney 17%
  • Perry 11%
  • Bachmann 9%
  • Santorum 4%
  • Huntsman 1%

Both of the above polls were taken in the days before Herman Cain officially withdrew from the race. Both polls asked respondents to rank their candidates with, and without, Cain, and the numbers without Cain are reported above.

REAL CLEAR POLITICS AVERAGE OF IOWA POLLS: Gingrich +11.6%

POLITICO LEAD STORY TONIGHT “THE MITT PIVOT”

“With Gingrich surging in the caucuses, narrowing Romney’s advantage in New Hampshire and staking out a sizable lead in national polls, the former Massachusetts governor is entering a post-frontrunner phase that requires a more active engagement with both voters and his GOP rivals.

“It’s time for our closing argument. And I’m making the closing argument to the American people,” Romney said.

Hopes for wrapping up the nomination with a quick-strike victory, which would require a strong showing in Iowa, are fading. Romney’s comments effectively marked a public concession that the play-it-safe approach he’s held to so far this year – limiting his interviews and doing only modest amounts of retail campaigning – simply won’t cut it anymore.”

CONTEXT: The “Closing Argument” comment came in Romney’s Cavuto interview today

THE TRUMP DEBATE: Only two candidates- Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum- have agreed to participate in the candidates forum to be moderated by Donald Trump on Tuesday December 27th. Today, Romney announced he would not participate.

WALL STREET: As the markets continue to watch Europe with great intent, markets were relatively quiet in trading today.

  • DOW up 52
  • NASDAQ 6
  • S&P 500 up 1

CITIGROUP announced today that they are cutting 4,500 jobs next year, which is equal to about 2% of its workforce worldwide. A few months ago, Bank of America announced plans to cut 30,000 jobs next year.

FINALLY Alec Baldwin was kicked off an American Airlines plane today after using with his mobile phone as the plane was attempting to take off.

From the AP:

“After explaining what happened, Baldwin let out a storm of tweets ripping AA for their conduct. “#theresalwaysunited” he wrote, referring to the airline’s competitor, United. Then, he wrote, “But, oddly, 30 Rock plays inflight on American. #theresalwaysunited,” referring to his own TV show.

“United Airlines should buy Words With Friends,” Baldwin continued, propping up the competitor once again.

Baldwin then got on another plane, which he indicated by tweeting, “Now on the 3 o’clock American flight. The flight attendants already look…..smarter.”

But while they’ve got Baldwin on their plane now, American won’t be getting his business going forward.

#theresalwaysunited Last flight w American. Where retired Catholic school gym teachers from the 1950’s find jobs as flight attendants,” the Emmy-winner stated.

The onslaught continued, as he joked, “Now, as I was kicked off this flight, the word I was playing was UNITED,” and then said, “My words with friends user name is now #theresalwaysunited.”nts 24, Lions 10, in New Orleans tonight.

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The Evening Report for Monday November 14, 2011

HAPPENING NOW: On NBC, the first interview with Former Penn State Assistant Football Coach Gary Sandusky- who agreed to a brief telephone interview with Bob Costas today. The full interview is airing on Rock Center with Brian Williams tonight.

From the conversation:

Sandusky: “I say that I am innocent of those charges.”

Costas: “Are you a pedophile?” 

Sandusky: “No.”

Sandusky: “I could say that I have done some of those things. I have horsed around with kids I have showered after workouts. I have hugged them and I have touched their legs without intent of sexual contact.”

“I shouldn’t have showered with those kids.”

“I enjoy being around children. I enjoy their enthusiasm. I just have a good time with them”

HAPPENING NOW: On ABC, the first interview with Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and her husband, astronaut Mark Kelly. The interview, with ABC’s Diane Sawyer, is airing on a special edition of 20/20 tonight. From the interview:

Sawyer: “How do you feel?”

Giffords: “Pretty good.”

Sawyer: “Is it painful?”

Giffords: “It’s difficult, difficult.”

The special will also contain home videos that Mark Kelly made through Gifford’s recovery which show her soon after the shooting at the hospital, and during rehabilitation and speech therapy.

TOP STORY: The Supreme Court of the United States today agreed to hear oral arguments on cases challenging the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act, President Obama’s signature domestic policy achievement.

With its decision today, the Court is setting itself up to inject its ruling, which could come in the summer of 2012, in the midst of a highly charged political season. Its decision, whether to uphold or strike down the constitutionality of the Act’s individual mandate provision will become a major decision point for voters in the final months of the election. However, there is a possibility that the Court could punt in its ruling and decline to issue a definitive yes or no to the constitutionality question.

NPR’s Nina Totenberg described the Court’s decision today in a report on the broadcast All Things Considered:

“In an apparent effort to be as comprehensive as possible, the court certified four questions for review. First, and most important: Did Congress exceed its constitutional authority in requiring virtually all Americans to have basic health care coverage?

The second: If the individual mandate is unconstitutional, does the rest of the law stand? Even the government now says there would be no way to provide the goodies everyone likes in this law without the expanded pool of people paying into the system.

The third question: Does the law impose unconstitutional conditions on the states by requiring them to pay 5 percent more into Medicaid by 2017 to cover the increased number of people under the program?

And the last question: Is it is premature to decide the first three?”

As if to underline the significance of the case, the court allocated 5 1/2 hours for oral argument, the longest argument in modern times.

Were the court to invalidate the statute in its entirety, it would roll back many of the provisions already benefiting millions of Americans.

FOR BRET- a soon-to-be lawyer…

“The length of the oral argument set by the court for the health care challenge is a recognition of the case’s importance. At 5 1/2 hours, the argument will be the longest in more than 45 years.

Time set aside for argument has changed markedly over the course of American legal history. Before 1849, there was no time limit at all, and counsel would often go on for days. In 1849, the increased caseload caused the justices to set a two-hour limit per side, which was reduced to one hour in 1925, and a half-hour per side in 1970, which is where it remains for most cases today.

But big cases, with many parties and complexities, sometimes get more time. The 1974 Nixon tapes case lasted three hours. Bush v. Gore went 90 minutes. The 1971 Pentagon Papers took two hours; the challenge to the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law in 2003 was four hours.”

DRIVING THE 2012 CAMPAIGN TONIGHT- “Rambling Cain has an ‘Oops’ Moment” by Alexander Burns in POLITICO.

Today, Herman Cain gave an editorial board interview to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, but he gave less than a clear answer on his opinion on the US military operation in Libya. From the transcript:

“OK, Libya. President Obama supported the uprising, correct? President Obama called for the removal of Qadhafi. Just want to make sure we’re talking about the same thing before I say, ‘yes I agree,’ or ‘no I didn’t agree.’ I do not agree with the way he handled it for the following reason – nope, that’s a different one. I gotta go back to, see … Got all this stuff twirling around in my head. Specifically, what are you asking me, did I agree or not disagree with Obama on?”

AND THEN [After the question- on whether Cain supported Pres. Obama’s decision to intervene in Libya-was rephrased and asked again]…

“Here’s what I would have – I would have done a better job of determining who the opposition is and I’m sure that our intelligence people have some of that information. Based upon who made up that opposition, OK, based upon who made up that opposition, might have caused me to make some different decisions about how we participated.

“Secondly, no, I did not agree with Qadhafi killing his citizens. Absolutely not. So something would have had to been – I would have supported many of the things they did in order to help stop that. It’s not a simple yes-no, because there are different pieces and I would have gone about assessing the situation differently, which might have caused us to end up in the same place. But where I think more could have been done was, what’s the nature of the opposition?”

It’s a rambling response, for sure. Watch the full video:

THE LATEST POLLS- out today-

POLITICO/Battleground States:

  • Cain 27%
  • Romney 25%
  • Gingrich 14%
  • Perry 14%
  • Paul 5%
  • Santorum 2%
  • Bachmann 2%

OBAMA 41%, GENERIC REPUBLICAN, 41%, Undecided 13%

CNN Poll (with difference from October):

  • Romney 24% (-2%)
  • Gingrich 22% (+14%)
  • Cain 14% (-11%)
  • Perry 12% (-1%)
  • Paul 8% (-1%)
  • Bachmann 6% (-)
  • Huntsman 3% (+2%)
  • Santorum 3% (+1%)

The big story coming out of the CNN poll is the surge in support for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has now eclipsed Herman Cain and is statistically-tied with Mitt Romney for front-runner status.

WALL STREET

  • Dow down 75
  • Nasdaq down 22
  • S&P 500 down 12

DRIVING WASHINGTON TONIGHT: “Supercommittee could punt on tough calls” as Manu Raju & Jake Sherman write tonight in POLITICO

“There’s increasing talk of punting some of the toughest issues to the congressional committees charged with doing this job in the first place. That could mean giving the House Ways and Means and Senate Finance panels an order to come up with a specific amount of savings and a broad directive to rewrite the Tax Code.

This potential abdication of power from a special committee that was granted sweeping authority to tackle the staggering deficit shows just how badly gridlocked Congress remains.

To some, it sounds like the supercommittee is trying to figure out how to maximize political cover if it fails — a far cry from the mandate to achieve major deficit reductions where the rest of Congress has fallen short.

PRESIDENT OBAMA departs Hawaii in a few hours en route to Australia, where he will be on a State Visit as part of a 9-day Asian-Pacific tour

FINALLY…Brad Pitt today announced that he would be retiring from acting when he turns 50, in 3 years. In an interview with an Australian news program, Pitt hinted at what may be next:

“I am really enjoying the producing side and development of stories and putting those pieces together … getting stories to the plate that might have had a tougher time otherwise.

“You know, I don’t know that we’re finished” adopting or conceiving more tots with Angelina Jolie. “Those late nights are so fun when one of them’s up or those mornings when they get up and make pancakes or something. That’s what it’s about.”

The Evening Report for Thursday November 03, 2011

JUST IN: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid plans to bring a veterans tax break bill to the floor for a vote on or close to Veterans Day, the latest component of the President’s proposed American Jobs Act to be considered in a piece-meal approach. In doing so, Reid is all but daring Republicans to vote against a popular tax break on a symbolic holiday. Today, the Senate failed to reach 60 votes to cut off debate on a transportation and infrastructure bill, one day after President Obama went to Washington’s Key Bridge to urge its passage.

TOP STORY: Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou appeared to walk back today on his proposal earlier this week to put the EU-brokered financial rescue package for his country up for a vote by popular referendum. Tomorrow, Papandreou faces a vote of no confidence in the Greek Parliament and it is not clear if he and his ruling political party will survive the vote. This comes as leaders of the G-20 nations are meeting this week in Cannes, France to discuss the proposal and its effects, should it pass or fail.

TOMORROW MORNING: The Labor Department releases its monthly employment report which will show the jobs situation for the month of October. Bloomberg is predicting that 95,000 jobs were added last month and the unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 9.1%. The numbers are released at 8:30am EST.

WALL STREET:

  • DOW up 208
  • NASDAQ up 58
  • S&P 500 up 23

STILL IN THE DARK: As of this hour, 318,212 customers in Connecticut remain without power after Saturday’s historic and unusual snow storm. Tonight, the Connecticut National Guard has been dispatched to some areas of the hard-hit Farmington Valley. Many school districts have been closed for the entire week. Connecticut Light & Power, the state’s primary utility company, predicts that all customers will have power restored by Sunday night.

TOP POLITICAL STORY: the developing scandal over allegations of sexual harassment by Republican frontrunner Herman Cain. The story has taken a number of new developments: with now three accusers coming forward, at least one asking permission from the National Restaurant Association to go public with her story and an accusation by the Cain campaign that a staffer with the Rick Perry campaign reportedly leaked this story to POLITICO. In an interview with CNN tonight, Perry strongly denied that, saying, “You know, I don’t know how to tell it any other way except we knew nothing about it.”

SO FAR, Cain is holding his own against a growing media firestorm. But as each day goes by, more and more details are coming out that, when compared against Cain’s prior statements, and the statements that he has made this week, don’t appear to add up. The biggest unknown right now is what kind of damage this story may have in the eyes of Cain’s supporters. However, his campaign reported this week that they have been raising on average of $1 million a day, a sign that Cain’s base of support may not be weakened- but rather emboldened- by this controversy. And with Rick Perry being drawn into the story, the Romney campaign is having a very good week. Although their candidate is not attracting any media attention, he also isn’t attracting any scrutiny while his chief obstacle (at the moment) for frontrunner status is fighting hard to get his campaign back on track.

THE NEXT DEBATE is Wednesday night in Rochester, Michigan. Its focus is slated to be jobs and the economy, although it is hard to see at this point how the Cain scandal could not be brought up.

RASMUSSEN POLL out today:

  • Cain 26%
  • Romney 23%
  • Gingrich 14%
  • Perry 8%
  • Paul 7%
  • Bachmann 2%
  • Huntsman 2%
  • Santorum 1%

QUINNIPIAC POLL out Wednesday:

  • Cain 30%
  • Romney 23%
  • Gingrich 10%
  • Perry 8%
  • Paul 7%
  • Bachmann 4%
  • Huntsman 2%
  • Santorum 1%

FINALLY..SERIOUSLY…”Siri” the voice activated network on Apple’s new iPhone 4S, encountered a major glitch today resulting in its first outage. According to TechCrunch, which is compiling some of the best tweets from users experiencing the problem, “When you try to use Siri on the iPhone 4S right now, the usually perky virtual assistant just responds: “Sorry, I am having trouble connecting to the network” and does nothing.”