The Golden Report

11 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
14 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
21 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

PRIMARY EDITION

THE LATEST RESULTS:
77.7% OF THE VOTE IN

ROMNEY 38.3%
PAUL 23.2%
HUNTSMAN 16.9%
GINGRICH 9.7%
SANTORUM 9.6%

ROMNEY’S VICTORY-

The Union-Leader’s Headline: “NH Speaks: It’s Romney”
Boston Globe- “Romney a solid first, Paul second in N.H…Fmr Mass. Governor Gets Decisive GOP Win”

THE GLOBE-

“In his victory speech to the cheering crowd, Romney turned his fire mainly on Democratic President Barack Obama, saying, “This president has run out of ideas; now he’s running out of excuses.”

He said Obama wants to “put free enterprise on trial. … I stand ready to lead us down a different path, where we’re lifted up by our desire to succeed, not dragged down by resentment of success.”

“He apologizes for America, and I will never apologize for the greatest nation in the history of the earth,” Romney said.

FIRST THOUGHTS ON THE ROMNEY WIN:

With some vote still left to come in, Romney is running ahead of John McCain’s winning percentage from 2008, but still below expectations in the last week that he would top 40% of the popular vote. It look as if Romney will finish at 37, 38 or 39 percent.

Ron Paul finishes with a strong second place standing. It’s difficult to see where his campaign goes next- although they will compete strongly in the caucuses through the winter and spring. Does tonight’s second-place finish by Paul make him more likely to mount a third party candidacy in November?

Jon Huntsman’s third place finish is a disappointing result for the former Utah Governor, but the candidate does say that he will be going on to South Carolina. The bigger question is how Huntsman’s campaign regroups and develops a strategy.

Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are nearly tied for fourth place, but this is not particularly surprising. Santorum did not spend a lot of money in New Hampshire over the last week and Gingrich’s standing with New Hampshire voters was well known. Both are expected to vie with Rick Perry in South Carolina on the 21st.

No candidate is expected to drop out of the race over the next week before the South Carolina debates beginning next Monday and the primary a week from Saturday.

ALL FIVE CANDIDATES DELIVERED STATEMENTS TO SUPPORTERS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT

RICK PERRY, IN SOUTH CAROLINA, RELEASED THIS STATEMENT

“Tonight’s results in New Hampshire show the race for ‘conservative alternative’ to Mitt Romney remains wide open. I skipped New Hampshire and aimed my campaign right at conservative South Carolina, where we’ve been campaigning hard and receiving an enthusiastic welcome. I believe being the only nonestablishment outsider in the race, the proven fiscal and social conservative and proven job creator will win the day in South Carolina.

“South Carolina is the next stop. I have a head start here, and it’s friendly territory for a Texas governor and veteran with solid outsider credentials; the nation’s best record of job creation; and solid fiscal, social and tea party conservatism.”

ROMNEY’S VICTORY WAS DECISIVE- from POLITICO’s EMILY SCHULTHEIS- who took a look at tonight’s exit polls

“He was the first pick of a full 30 percent of voters who described themselves as “very conservative,” followed by Rick Santorum at 29 percent. He had a strong lead among those who described themselves as “somewhat conservative,” with 45 percent choosing him; he also led among self-described “moderates” and “liberals” with 35 percent.

Still, exit polls found that a full third of New Hampshire voters said they wanted another candidate in the race — only 65 percent said they were “satisfied” with the current GOP field, while 32 percent said they would like to see another candidate join the race.

Also worth noting was the high number of independents voting in tonight’s primary — a group that will be fiercely contested by both parties next fall. A full 45 percent of those coming to the polls said they were registered independents, and 47 percent of total voters tonight described themselves as independents. Both Romney and Ron Paul did well among independents — with registered independents, Romney led at 32 percent, followed by Paul at 30 percent and Jon Huntsman at 23 percent.

The former Massachusetts governor even led among New Hampshire evangelical voters, with 27 percent of that group picking Romney. Santorum took second place with the evangelical vote at 26 percent, followed by Paul at 10 percent.

One group Romney did not win, however, is the youth vote — a group that went strongly for Paul, as it did in Iowa. Paul got the support of 46 percent of voters aged 18 to 29, with Romney coming in a distant second at 21 percent. Romney, however, had a strong advantage with older voters: He won 45- to 64-year-olds with 39 percent and the 65 and older vote with 39 percent.

THE DEMOCRATS:

Vice President Joe Biden spoke via video-conference to about 2,000 Democratic supporters in New Hampshire tonight.

President Obama is traveling to Chicago tomorrow, to attend a re-election fundraiser and, likely, stop by his re-election headquarters

THE HEADLINES TONIGHT

Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire. Officially, he is now 2 for 2 in the contests so far this primary season.

No candidates are dropping out after tonight’s results.

It’s on to South Carolina, where Gingrich, Santorum and Perry are going to attack Romney over Bain Capital. 

1 DAY UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
12 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
15 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
22 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

“I LIKE BEING ABLE TO FIRE PEOPLE who provide services to me,” MITT ROMNEY, speaking today in Nashua, NH.

First- some context- and in the Romney’s campaign defense, the candidate was answering a question about services such as health care, and referencing insurance companies.

However- this quote came just one day after Romney said the following last evening in Rochester, NH:

“I’ve learned what it’s like to sign the front of a paycheck, not just the back of a paycheck, and to know how frightening it is to see if you can make the payroll at the end of the week. These are experiences that many of you know.”

“I know what it’s like to worry whether you’re going to get fired. There were a couple of times I wondered whether I was going to get a pink slip.”

Both quotes were immediately seized upon by Romney’s rivals in tomorrow’s primary. They also came on a day when the Wall Street Journal ran an A1 investigation into Romney’s record at Bain Capital, echoing an attack that Newt Gingrich brought up in this weekend’s debates, and which Gingrich’s Super PAC has bought an extraordinary amount of air time in South Carolina to make an issue in that state’s primary.

Tonight, Romney, the man who is expected to handedly win tomorrow’s primary, is under attack. They’re the same attacks that will be used by President Obama and the re-election campaign during the general election. Further, Romney’s misstatements today bare a striking resemblance to a fatal mistake made my Massachusetts Senator John Kerry during the 2004 election, with his comment that the “actually voted for it before he voted against it”- a line that came to symbolize his indecisiveness.

CAMPAIGN RESET- ROMNEY COMES UNDER FIRE AS PRIMARY LOOMS- THE WASHINGTON POST-PHILIP RUCKER IN HUDSON, NH

“An assault on Mitt Romney’s business career intensified Monday after the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination made an ­off-the-cuff comment that his opponents say shows that he was a corporate predator who sought profits at the expense of workers.”

“Governor Romney enjoys firing people; I enjoy creating jobs,” former Utah governor Jon Huntsman Jr., who polls suggest is enjoying a late surge here, told reporters in Concord. “It may be that he’s slightly out of touch with the economic reality playing out in America right now, and that’s a dangerous place to be.”

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) went further, criticizing the type of business Romney engaged in. “Look, I’m for capitalism,” Gingrich said on NBC’s “Today” show. “But if somebody comes in, takes all the money out of your company and then leaves you bankrupt while they go off with millions, that’s not traditional capitalism.”

Instead of sprinting to the finish before Tuesday’s primary, which he is heavily favored to win, the candidate spent his final day on the New Hampshire campaign trail explaining and defending his role as co-founder and chief executive of Bain Capital. The venture capital firm invested in start-ups such as Staples, an office supplies superstore, but also oversaw large-scale job losses through leveraged buyouts and restructuring.

“Free enterprise will be on trial,” Romney told reporters in Hudson. “I thought it was going to come from the president, from the Democrats on the left, but instead it’s coming from Speaker Gingrich and apparently others. And that’s just part of the process. I’m not worried about that. I’ve got broad shoulders.”

WMUR AND THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE PREDICT A ROMNEY BLOWOUT TOMORROW NIGHT, HAVE HIM UP 24 POINTS IN A POLL RELEASED TODAY

Romney 41%, Paul 17%, Huntsman 11%, Santorum 11%, Gingrich 8%, Perry 1%

SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY/NEWS 7 HAS IT A BIT CLOSER, ROMNEY UP 13

Romney 33%, Paul 20%, Huntsman 13%, Santorum 10%, Santorum 10%, Perry 1%

AND PPP TRACKING PUTS ROMNEY UP BY 17- probably the most accurate assessment of where the race stands

Romney 35%, Paul 18%, Huntsman 16%, Gingrich 12%, Santorum 11%, Perry 1%

IT’S ALL ABOUT EXPECTATIONS...

Will Romney crack 40% tomorrow?
Will anything significantly less be seen as a sign of weakness?
Will Ron Paul pull a strong second or will his support be transfered to another candidate?
Was there a Huntsman surge at the end of the race? Does he come in third, fourth or fifth?
Which candidates hold their New Hampshire primary parties from South Carolina (Rick Perry)?

DRIVING SOUTH CAROLINA- “A BIG CHECK AND GINGRICH GETS A BIG LIFT”- By NICHOLAS CONFESSORE and ERIC LIPTON- THE NEW YORK TIMES-

“MANCHESTER, N.H. — For weeks this winter, as Newt Gingrich’s presidential hopes faltered under the weight of millions of dollars in attack ads paid for by backers of Mitt Romney, a small group of Gingrich supporters quietly lobbied for help from one of the richest men in America: Sheldon Adelson, a billionaire casino owner and Mr. Gingrich’s longtime friend and patron

By the time Mr. Gingrich limped into New Hampshire, some of his top backers had given up on Mr. Adelson and begun prospecting elsewhere, including among erstwhile supporters of Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, to finance the counterattack they believed could salvage Mr. Gingrich’s campaign.

But on Friday, the cavalry arrived: a $5 million check from Mr. Adelson to Winning Our Future, a “super PAC” that supports Mr. Gingrich. By Monday morning, the group had reserved more than $3.4 million in advertising time in South Carolina, a huge sum of money in a state where the airwaves come cheap and the Republican presidential primary is just 11 days away. The group is planning to air portions of a movie critical of Mr. Romney’s time at Bain Capital, the private equity firm he helped found.

The last-minute injection underscores how last year’s landmark Supreme Court ruling on campaign finance has made it possible for a wealthy individual to influence an election. Mr. Adelson’s contribution to the super PAC is 1,000 times the $5,000 he could legally give directly to Mr. Gingrich’s campaign this year.

Several people with knowledge of Mr. Adelson’s decision to donate to Winning Our Future said that it was born out of a two-decade friendship with Mr. Gingrich, his advocacy on behalf of Israel and his turbulent months as a presidential candidate.

“His friend needed his help,” said a close associate of both men, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid drawing Mr. Adelson’s ire. “It’s more than anything else a loyalty thing. And he believes strongly in his platform and in Newt’s candidacy.”

THE DAY’S TOP POLITICAL STORY- WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF BILL DALEY IS STEPPING DOWN-
from National Journal’s George Condon, Jr. at The White House-

“President Obama promised on Monday that the White House will “not miss a beat” even though he was taken by surprise by the resignation of Chief of Staff William Daley and has had to turn to his third person in the post at the beginning of a critical election year.

To replace Daley, the president turned to another Washington veteran, Jack Lew. Lew is the current director of the White House Office of Management and Budget and previously served as a top deputy to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. He also served as an adviser to President Bill Clinton.

“Obviously, this was not easy news to hear,” the president said in the State Dining Room, flanked on each side by Daley and Lew. “And I didn’t accept Bill’s decision right away. In fact, I asked him to take a couple of days to make sure that he was sure about this. But in the end, the pull of the hometown we both love, a city that’s been synonymous with the Daley family for generations, was too great.”

Daley will become a co-chair of the President’s re-election campaign.

WALL STREET TODAY- from CNBC- “Stocks Eek Out a Gain Ahead of Earnings”

• DOW up 33
• NASDAQ up 3
• S&P 500 up 3

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW FOR TOMORROW

VOTING HOURS: Polls open at 7am ET and close in most places, including Manchester, at 7pm. The last polls in the state close at 8pm. That’s the earliest time the networks will make a projection. [and exit polls could provide enough information to make a projection at poll closing time tomorrow].

DIXVILLE NOTCH, NEW HAMPSHIRE HOLDS THE FIRST VOTES OF THE ELECTION, just past midnight ET tonight.

TURNOUT EXPECTATION: 250,000 for the Republican Primary and 75,000 for the Democratic Primary (President Obama is on the ballot uncontested), per the Secretary of State

INDEPENDENTS CAN VOTE: Because New Hampshire is an “open primary”. 40% of New Hampshire’s electorate is independent.

HOW ARE THE DELEGATES AWARDED: Tomorrow’s primary is the first time delegates will be awarded towards the Republican Nomination. Iowa’s caucuses last week were non-binding. They will hold a binding contest later this year to formally apportion delegates. 12 delegates are at stake tomorrow. Ordinarily, NH would have 23 delegates but the state is being penalized by the Republican Party for holding its primary in January, earlier than the official rules allow. Delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate attracting at least 10% of the vote.

WHAT’S NEXT? Two debates in South Carolina next week (Monday and Thursday), ahead of the South Carolina Primary on Saturday January 21st. Then comes the Florida Primary on Tuesday January 31st. That Saturday, February 4th, Nevada holds its caucuses and Maine begins their multi-day caucus. Super Tuesday is on March 6th. The earliest a candidate is likely to have a statistical “hold” on the nomination is on March 20th, after the Illinois Primary.

THREE FAST FACTS ABOUT NEW HAMPSHIRE:

In the last 25 years, only one candidate not named Bush or McCain has won the New Hampshire Republican primary: Pat Buchanan (1996).

And since 1952, no Republican presidential candidate has gone on to win his party’s nomination without finishing either first or second in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire holds more regular statewide and local elections more frequently than any other state in the United States.

2008 NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY RESULTS

John McCain 37.0%
Mitt Romney 31.6%
Mike Huckabee 11.2%
Rudy Giuliani 8.5%
Ron Paul 7.7%
Fred Thompson 1.2%
Turnout: 239,793

THE EVENING REPORT will publish a special post-primary edition tomorow night after the winner is known. Last Tuesday, our post-caucus edition was sent at 12:04am ET. 

2 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
13 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
16 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
23 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

THE LATEST FROM NEW HAMPSHIRE- home of two debateswithin 12 hours this weekend and now less than 48 hours from the first in the nation presidential preference primary-

“Romney Under Attack in in Final NH Debate”- The Washington Post- Karen Tumulty and Amy Gardner- in Concord-

“The unusual morning debate was the 15th of the campaign season — and the second in 10 hours — for the candidates. It was sponsored by NBC News, the New Hampshire Union Leader and Facebook.

In the previous night’s forum, which was aired on ABC, Romney’s opponents had landed few blows on the front-runner.

Romney, initially rattled under the Sunday morning barrage, tried to defend himself — but at times seemed to fuel some of the most damaging perceptions about him.

For instance, he reminded viewers of his background of wealth and privilege when he recounted a bit of “good advice” that his father, a wealthy auto executive who later became governor of Michigan, gave him.

“He said, ‘Mitt, never get involved in politics if you have to win an election to pay a mortgage,’ ” Romney recalled, in a remark that could also be interpreted as a suggestion that only the wealthy should run for office.

And even as his opponents were blasting Romney as being insufficiently committed to the conservative fight, he recounted how, when he had run against Kennedy, he had told his business partners: “I’ll be back in six months. Don’t take my chair.” He also boasted that Kennedy “had to take a mortgage out on his house to ultimately defeat me.”

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM: Romney is expected to win, by a significant margin, Tuesday’s primary. Anything short of a 15 to 20 plus point win will be interpreted as a sign of potential weakness. With such strong expectations, there is an opening for the candidates vying for the second tier to make a run and threaten Romney’s standing. A strong second place could be akin to a victory. That said, the race for 2-5 is much more fluid, with Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman- and possibly Newt Gingrich- possible contenders for any slot.

FOR HUNTSMAN, NEW HAMPSHIRE IS DO OR DIE- the Post’s Sandhya Somashekhar and Nia-Malika Henderson report from Concord-

“Huntsman went for broke here, skipping Iowa and spending virtually the entire campaign in a state that seemed more receptive to his moderate views. For months, he has been trundling from town to town in New Hampshire wearing a silver belt buckle and cowboy boots, delivering mild-mannered critiques of the president and occasionally breaking into his fluent Chinese.

In the final sprint, Huntsman has gained some momentum and is aiming to draw votes from Mitt Romney, the front-runner and candidate with whom Huntsman shares the most ground ideologically.

In a debate Sunday, the former Utah governor drew applause when he chided Romney for criticizing his willingness to serve as ambassador to China under President Obama. “This nation is divided . . . because of attitudes like that,” Huntsman said.

He sounded the same theme a few hours later, when about 250 people packed into a Hampstead coffee shop to hear the Republican hopeful’s stump speech. “I put my country first,” he said. “Apparently, Mitt Romney doesn’t believe in putting country first.”

HUNTSMAN HAD HIS STRONGEST PERFORMANCES TO DATE in the New Hampshire debates this weekend, but it remains to be seen if that is enough to translate into enough votes on Tuesday.

FROM THIS MORNING’S NBC NEWS/FACEBOOK DEBATE ON MEET THE PRESS WITH DAVID GREGORY- as reported by the Huffington Post’s Jon Ward

“I was criticized last night by Gov. Romney for putting my country first,” Huntsman said. “He criticized me while he was out raising money, for serving my country in China, yes under a Democrat, like my two sons are doing in the United States Navy. They’re not asking what political affiliation the president is.”

“I will always put my country first and I think that’s important,” Huntsman said.

Romney essentially doubled down on his assertion that serving as an ambassador under a president of the opposite political party is an unworthy undertaking.

“I think we serve our country first by standing for people who believe in conservative principles and doing everything in our power to promote an agenda that does not include President Obama’s agenda,” Romney said. “The decision to go to work for President Obama is one which you took, and I don’t — I respect your decision to do that. I just think it’s most likely that the person who should represent our party running against President Obama is not someone who called him a remarkable leader and went to be his ambassador in China.”

Huntsman shot back immediately: “This nation is divided because of attitudes like that.”

The crowd applauded Huntsman’s retort. He went on to say that “the American people are tired of the partisan division.”

“They have had enough. There is no trust left among the American people and the institutions of power and among the American people and their elected officials,” Huntsman said.

SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY/NEWS 7 NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL finds Romney with a 15-point lead, however, that is down 8 points from an earlier tracking poll last week

• Romney 35%
• Paul 20%
• Huntsman 11%
• Gingrich 9%
• Santorum 8%
• Perry 1%

NEW KOTECKI VIDEO THIS WEEKEND- A MUST- WATCH- Political analyst & video blogger James Kotecki released a new video this weekend- a parody of Taylor Swift’s “You Belong With Me”- “You Should Vote Romney” 

It’s one of Kotecki’s best videos to date. Make sure you check it out! 

POLITICO’S TOP STORY TONIGHT- “New Hampshire Primary: The Land of Make-Believe”- BY MIKE ALLEN AND JONATHAN MARTIN-

“The trappings are here: debates … diner stops … satellite trucks.

But the contest isn’t: Mitt Romney is holding onto his apparently huge lead over rivals in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, and is looking so strong going into South Carolina’s primary two weeks from now that his advisers privately talk up hopes for a 3-0 sweep of the opening contests - and a quick kill to win.

Maybe that’s why things seem so sleepy here compared to years past. The airwaves are surprisingly free of the nastiness that would normally accompany a six-way primary fight. Local officials complain of lower-than-hoped-for spending everywhere. The whole political circus surrounding the first-in-the-nation primary is taking on an increasing air of make-believe, as journalists converge (though in noticeably fewer numbers than in 2008) to cover a contest with a thoroughly predictable victor.”

QUOTE OF THE DAY- “I know what its like to worry about whether you’re going to get fired. There were a couple of times I wondered whether I was gonna get a pink slip.”- Mitt Romney speaking at a campaign event following this morning’s debate.

If not used by his current Republican rivals, quotes like this will be used by the Obama campaign in the forthcoming general election contest to paint Romney as elite and out of touch.

COMING ATTRACTION- from POLITICO’s James Hohmann- reporting tonight that the Ron Paul campaign will not openly contest the Florida Primary on January 31st and instead will focus their attention on caucus states later in the calendar, especially Louisiana, Nevada and Maine. Watch for Paul to use these contests to rake up delegates, and possibly victories.

WINNING OUR FUTURE- The Super PAC aligned with Newt Gingrich- today released a 3-minute trailer for a forthcoming half hour documentary which is mean to expose Mitt Romney as an corporate raider.

Just this preview is stunning, especially when you consider that it is coming from a fellow Republican candidate. It is Swift Boat-like in its approach. This is also something that might be captured by Super PACs aligned with President Obama and the Democratic Party in a general election. 

FIVE THINGS TO WATCH FOR IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY- from National Journal’s Ron Fournier-

“In the final days leading up to the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, look for …

1. … Jon Huntsman, who posted his strongest debate performance to date on Sunday, to gain ground in the polls. Every vote he picks up will come from Mitt Romney.

2. … Romney to unleash his rumored organizational power for huge closing rallies. If not, you’ve got to wonder why. His New Hampshire crowds were lame until he drew close to 1,000 Saturday morning. Sign of things to come?

3. … Rick Santorum to regret taking the gay-marriage bait in New Hampshire. It killed his Iowa momentum because New Hampshire Republicans are more concerned about the economy than polarizing social issues.

4. … Newt Gingrich to get cranky with the media and Ron Paul, who’s now in second place in polls, to flirt with third.

5. … Rick Perry to talk up the tea party in South Carolina and act like New Hampshire doesn’t mean anything, But it does: He seems to be taking the long way home to Texas (and out of the race).”

TODAY IS THE ONE YEAR ANNIVERSARY of the shooting of Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords in Tucson, Arizona.
Tonight, the recovering Congresswoman led a crowd of thousands at a prayer vigil. CNN reports-

“Soon after the event began, the Arizona Democrat took the stage to lead the crowd in the pledge of allegiance. After receiving help from her husband, Mark Kelly, to put her right hand above her heart, Giffords enthusiastically recited the pledge, her voice strong and demeanor positive, before leaving the stage to applause.

Earlier in the day, the congresswoman’s chief of staff, Pia Carusone, admitted that the attack’s anniversary has been “difficult emotionally for everybody.” So, too, did Giffords’ husband, who also made a point to thank those who have supported his wife and others affected.

“It’s been a tough year, but we’re lucky to have so many people standing w/us,” Kelly, a retired Navy captain and astronaut, wrote on his Twitter account.”

AT THE BOX OFFICE THIS WEEKEND

1/ The Devil Inside $34.5 million
2/ Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol $20.5 million
3/ Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows $14 million
4/ The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo  $11.3 million
5/ Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked $9.5 million

BEYONCE AND JAY-Z HAVE A BABY- NAME IT BLUE IVY- From TMZ (who else?)

“Proud dad Jay-Z, real name Shawn Carter, was at the hospital where Beyonce reportedly birthed Ivy by c-section — and shortly after her arrival … J & B’s famous friends started sending out birth announcements on the Internet.

Rihanna tweeted, “Welcome to the world princess Carter! Love Aunty Rih”

Hip-hop mogul Russell Simmons also took to Twitter, saying … “congrats to my good friends Beyonce and Jay-Z.”

Beyonce famously announced her pregnancy on stage at the MTV Video Music Awards back in August.”

AND/BUT THEY’RE CAUSING A RUCUS AT THE NEW YORK HOSPITAL- Also from TMZ:

“A Brooklyn man claims increased security at Lenox Hill hospital because the presence of Beyonce and Jay-Z kept him from seeing his prematurely born twins … this according to a report.

Neil Coulon tells the NY Daily News he has been repeatedly kept out of the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) by the couple’s security. He also claims his relatives were booted out of the waiting room by bodyguards wearing headsets.

He tells the paper, “Three times they stopped me from entering or exiting the NICU and it happened once on Friday — just because they wanted to use the hallway.”

FINALLY- TIM TEBOW DOES IT AGAIN- ESPN- “TEBOW STUNS STEELERS ON FIRST OVERTIME PLAY”

“DENVER — One of the most storied NFL playoff teams ran into a rejuvenated Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos.

Sorry, Pittsburgh Steelers.
The magic is back.

Tebow connected with Demaryius Thomas on an electrifying 80-yard touchdown pass on the first play of overtime and the Broncos defeated the stunned Steelers 29-23 in the AFC wild-card game on Sunday. Wild doesn’t begin to describe it. The play took 11 seconds and was the quickest ending to an overtime in NFL history.

Thomas hauled in a high play-action pass at the Denver 38, stiff-armed Ike Taylor and then outraced Ryan Mundy to the end zone. Tebow, who looked as startled as everyone else, chased down Thomas and knelt on one knee — a gesture known far and wide these days as Tebowing. Then he pounded a fist in triumph and took a victory lap.

“When I saw him scoring, first of all, I just thought, `Thank you, Lord,” Tebow said. “Then, I was running pretty fast, chasing him — Like I can catch up to D.T! Then I just jumped into the stands, first time I’ve done that. That was fun. Then, got on a knee and thanked the Lord again and tried to celebrate with my teammates and the fans.”

Prodded by John Elway to let the ball fly, Tebow acted as if the last three weeks never happened, lifting the Broncos to their first playoff win in six years.”

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4 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
15 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
18 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
25 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

FRIDAY’S EARLY EDITION

TOP STORY: The Labor Department reported this morning that the US economy gained 200,000 jobs last month, which dropped the unemployment rate to 8.5%.

It is the lowest level of unemployment since February 2009, the month that President Obama took office. It is also the sixth consecutive month of private sector job growth.

Still, 5.6 million Americans have been out of work for six months or longer, chronically unemployed and the unemployment rate does not reflect the millions of Americans who are no longer counted as part of the labor pool because they have dropped out and stopped looking for work.

PRESIDENT OBAMA, for whom the economy holds the key to re-election, trumpeted today’s news as he took a political victory lap of sorts at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in Washington, where he visited the newly appointed Commissioner, Richard Cordray. 

“This morning we learned that American businesses added another 212,000 jobs last month. All together more private-sector jobs were created in 2011 than any year since 2005,” he said.

“There are a lot of people that are still hurting out there, after losing more than 8 million jobs in the recession. Obviously, we have a lot more work to do. But it is important for the American people to recognize we added 3.2 million new private-sector jobs in the last 22 months, nearly 2 million new jobs last year alone….

“One of reasons is the tax cut we put in place last year.When Congress returns, they should extend the payroll tax cut all year. There should not be delay, there should not be a lot of drama.”

COMING ATTRACTION: The debate over extending the payroll tax cut through the end of the year will resume when Congress returns to town at the end of the month. Some believe that it is the only significant piece of legislation that Congress may move this year.

WALL STREET: for all the seemingly good economic news this week, the Dow managed to end the day slightly lower.

• DOW down 56
• NASDAQ down 3
• S&P 500 up 4

CAMPAIGN 2012

Just four days to go before New Hampshire votes and the politics of debate-prep and expectations setting drove the day today

ANOTHER SERIAL HYPOCRITE- and the latest in a theme of Ron Paul’s attack ads against fellow Republicans in the race. Today, the Paul campaign announced a $250,000 ad buy in South Carolina- home to Saturday January 21st primary- attacking Rick Santorum and calling his a “record of betrayal”  

WASHINGTON POST HEADLINE TONIGHT AND THE SUNDAY SHOWS THIS WEEKEND- Romney Looking To Wrap Things Up By End of Month- from Philip Rucker in Tilton, NH

“Buoyed by a narrow win in the Iowa caucuses and his commanding lead in the New Hampshire polls, Romney has turned his attention to South Carolina, where he is dispatching a slew of high-profile surrogates and relocating his staff ahead of the Jan. 21 primary. Looking further ahead, Romney has begun a massive advertising blitz in Florida and launched an aggressive outreach program to early voters in the state.

Romney campaign advisers insist they are taking the race one state at a time and not taking any contest for granted. Yet Republican observers see Romney executing an ambitious strategy that would quickly maximize his momentum and try to quash any further surges by his rivals.

“If Romney wins the first four states, he’ll be the de facto nominee of the party,” said Steve Schmidt, a senior strategist on Sen. John McCain’s 2008 campaign who is unaffiliated in the current race. Ed Rogers, another unaffiliated Republican strategist, said the notion that Romney may wrap up the nomination by Jan. 31 is “perfectly plausible.”

NEW POLLS OUT TODAY PROVIDE A SNAPSHOT OF THE RACE

ROMNEY UP BY 24 IN WMUR NH PRIMARY POLL: Romney 44%, Paul 20%, Santorum 8%, Gingrich 8%, HUNTSMAN 7%, Perry 1%

AND BY THE SAME MARGIN IN RASMUSSEN’S NH SURVEY: Romney 42%, Paul 18%, Santorum 13%, Huntsman 12%, Gingrich 8%, Perry 1%

IN SOUTH CAROLINA, CNN HAS HIM LEADING SANTORUM BY 18: Romney 37%, Santorum 19%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 12%, Perry 5%, Huntsman 1%

BUT RASMUSSEN SAYS ITS CLOSER, WITH ROMNEY ONLY LEADING BY 3: Romney 27%,Santorum 24%, Gingrich 18% , Paul 11%, Perry 5%, Huntsman 2%

DRIVING THE POLITICAL WORLD- The New York Times’ Jodi Kantor is out with a new book- which paints an unflattering view of the Obama Administration, with sources deep inside The West Wing. President and Mrs. Obama were not interviewed for the book.

WHAT WE’RE LEARNING- Former Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel offered his resignation to the President in the winter of 2010 at the end of the divisive health care debate. Kantor also exposes a rife between Emanual and First Lady Michelle Obama. From the Huffington Post’s White House Correspondent Sam Stein, reporting on the book:

“Once the administration began, the frictions only escalated. Emanuel rejected Michelle Obama’s efforts to be part of his 7:30 a.m. staff meeting. The administration did not outfit her with a speechwriter for some time. And the first lady’s office grew so isolated from the rest of the presidential orbit that aides there began, as Kantor writes, “referring to the East Wing as ‘Guam’ — pleasant but powerless.”

“Michelle and Rahm Emanuel had almost no bond; their relationship was distant and awkward from the beginning. She had been skeptical of him when he was selected, and now he returned the favor; he was uneasy about first ladies in general, several aides close to him said, based on clashes with Hillary Clinton in the 1990s that became so severe that she had tried to fire him from her husband’s administration,” writes Kantor. “Now Emanuel was chief of staff, a position that almost never included an easy relationship with the first lady. They were the president’s two spouses, in a sense, one public and official and one private and informal.”

AND MORE ABOUT THE FIRST LADY “Michelle Obama, who came to politics skeptically but saw her husband as someone capable of lofty achievements, lashed out against her isolation. She sent emails to [Obama Counselor Valarie] Jarrett when she had complaints about news coverage, which Jarrett would forward to others after removing the first lady’s name from them. When she couldn’t wedge herself into her husband’s schedule, she would send her missives to Alyssa Mastromonaco, the president’s director of scheduling. The emails, Kantor writes, “were so stern that Mastromonaco showed them around to colleagues, unsure of how to respond to her boss’s wife’s displeasure.”

THIS BOOK has the power to drive the White House off its new, revived, 2012 message, if the Administration allows it to do so. Watch to see over the next week how the White House officially responds, and what unofficial message they send as they play damage control.

AND FINALLY…The Bieb’s Got The Ink. NBC Entertainment reports:

“If you ever questioned the Biebs’ religious beliefs, this oughta clear it up for you.

In addition to his dove and Hebrew script of Jesus’ name on his rib cage ( matching with pops…awww), Justin Bieber showed off his new ink on the back of his calf while going to Shakey’s Pizza with his dad and some friends today.

The 17-year-old got a portrait of Jesus Christ’s face. Is it shocking?

To some it may seem that way, but Bieber has never been shy when it comes to religion. His movie, “Never Say Never,” even has some Christian reflection.

“People will walk away (from the movie) knowing faith is very important to him,” Scooter Braun, Bieber’s manager and one of the film’s producers told USA Today. “As a Christian, he’s someone to look up to…When [fans] are getting the real person is when they can connect to that person.”

“I believe that Jesus died on a cross for my sins,” Bieber told Billboard last November. “He’s the reason that I’m here.”

6 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
17 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
20 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
27 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

It was a busy news day. Here’s a look at what’s happened today:

• Mitt Romney officially won the Iowa Caucus by eight votes over Rick Santorum.
• Michele Bachmann said she was suspending her presidential campaign.
• Rick Perry returned to Texas, and then announced that he would be staying in the race, participating in this weekend’s debates and competing in the South Carolina Primary later this month.
• 2008 Republican Nominee John McCain endorsed Mitt Romney in New Hampshire.
• President Obama appointed Richard Cordray to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, using a controversial recess appointment. He used the same authority to nominate three members of the National Labor Relations Board.

THE MAN OF THE DAY: RICK SANTORUM, who sent a shock wave through the Republican Party by earning 25% of last night’s Iowa Caucus vote. Today, Santorum moved on to New Hampshire as he faces the seemingly daunting task of building a campaign organization that is able to go toe-to-toe with Mitt Romney.

HE’S RAISED A MILLION DOLLARS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS: reports Jonathan Martin “their server briefly went down under the crush last night, said almost all of the cash came online.”

AND/BUT MITT ROMNEY WON THE DAY, says Maggie Habberman, “To be sure, Rick Santorum has had a good day - he’s still being treated as the clearest anti-Romney candidate, and he got helpful ink from the Wall Street Journal editorial page and columnist George Will. But Romney’s day was better.”

AND JMART SAYS ITS GOING TO BE HARD TO STOP ROMNEY NOW:

“Conservatives got a stark reminder Wednesday about just how difficult it will be to block his path to the nomination. Romney’s conservative opposition remains split and unable to unify behind a single alternative — all the more so with Rick Perry deciding to stay in the race Wednesday after hinting he might step aside. A high-profile Christian conservative, Gary Bauer, said he had no intention of joining a campaign to take down Romney.

And even second-place Iowa finisher Rick Santorum’s momentum hardly seemed enough to slow Romney in New Hampshire, where the former Massachusetts governor is sitting on a double-digit lead with five days until the primary.
Because of the divided nature of the opposition and Romney’s organizational and financial advantages, GOP elites made the case Wednesday that there was no clear way he could be stopped.”

A ‘VICTORY LAP’ IS EXACTLY HOW THE NEW YORK TIMES DESCRIBES ROMNEY’S DAY:

“After a round of morning television show appearances and a ride in a Boeing 737 packed with reporters, Mr. Romney headed for a high school gymnasium where he accepted the endorsement of a onetime bitter rival, Senator John McCain. He also showed off his network of support in the state, where the nation’s first primary takes place Tuesday, appearing with former Gov. John H. Sununu and Senator Kelly Ayotte, an indication of how the Republican establishment was rallying to his side.

“Do we think we can get more than an eight-vote margin here in New Hampshire?” he asked the crowd, a joking reference to his remarkably slim margin of victory in Iowa.

While Mr. Romney dominated the day-after-Iowa news coverage with his victory lap here, Mr. Santorum and his staff were slowly making the 1,400-mile journey from Des Moines in a King Air propeller plane that did not deliver them here until suppertime, too late to make a star turn on the evening news. He made a nighttime turn on Fox News and CNN and landed in time for a rally that drew hundreds.”

BUT, ABOUT THAT MCCAIN ENDORSEMENT- the Huffington Post’s Jon Ward thought the event was lackluster, much like Romney’s speech early this morning in Iowa:

“Mitt Romney’s first event here in the state where he enjoys a huge home-field advantage offered a rude awakening.

Three of the first four questioners were openly hostile to Romney, although one of them was an Occupy Manchester activist. And even the endorsement and appearance of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) failed to arouse much of a reaction from the Granite Staters in attendance.”

WHY POLITICAL ADVANCE IS SO IMPORTANT: ”And much of the blame probably lay with campaign planners, who scheduled Romney for an event at a time when most politically active people are working and put him in front of an audience made up in part of apathetic high school students. They also rushed McCain out onto the big stage so he could dominate the cable news during the afternoon, rather than waiting for an early-evening town hall in Peterborough, one of McCain’s favorite settings in the state.”

TONIGHT McCain and Romney made a joint appearance on Hannity.

SO WHAT’S NEXT?

Saturday- 14th Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, St. Anslem College, 9pm/ABC News
Sunday- Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, Mancheser, NH 9am/NBC News
Tuesday- New Hampshire Primary
Monday January 16th- Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, Myrtle Beach, SC
Thursday January 19th- 17th Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, Charleston, SC
Saturday January 21st- South Carolina Primary

SANTORUM MISSES DEADLINE FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA APRIL 3RD PRIMARY- “Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry and Mitt Romney all filed the required information by today’s 5 p.m. deadline and will appear on the ballot for DC’s April 3 primary. Michele Bachmann, who dropped her presidential bid earlier today, also did not file”

JON HUNTSMAN ON AIR IN NEW HAMPSHIRE: ”We’re getting screwed as Americans” his new ad - also his first- says.

PRESIDENT OBAMA went to Ohio today, his first public appearance of 2012 in a key battleground state. And the White House began the year fighting, choosing to usurp Senatorial custom and interpret the President’s constitutional authority to issue recess appointments broadly, nominating Richard Cordray as the first director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

IN THIS MOVE, National Journal’s Stacy Kaper and Dan Friedman find clues to the President’s re-election strategy

“In one bold stroke, Obama broke what Democrats called an unprecedented GOP attempt to hold up installation of any CFPB chief unless Democrats agreed to change the agency’s structure. Republicans filibustered Cordray’s nomination last month. 

Obama’s move marks a new step in a procedural arms race in which both parties, while professing outrage, counter each other’s obstruction with new procedural tactics. Legally, Cordray has no better claim to a recess appointment than any other pending nominee. But because Republicans blocked Cordray on the grounds that they oppose the bureau rather than think him unqualified, Democrats feel they have a stronger political case for installing him.

Lawyers of all stripes agree that legal challenges are inevitable, and that, like the health care law, they could ultimately wind up before the Supreme Court.”

LOOK FOR AN INCREASINGLY COMBATIVE WHITE HOUSE to continue its “We Can’t Wait” strategy in the weeks ahead, portraying President Obama as a “warrior for the Middle Class”- a likely theme for this year’s State of the Union Address

WALL STREET- from CNBC- “The Dow and S&P clawed back into positive territory at the close Wednesday, adding to the sharp rally from the previous session, but gains were limited over renewed fears over the euro zone debt crisis.”

• DOW up 21
• NASDAQ down 0.36
• S&P 500 up 0.24

FINALLY… The Iowa Caucus results didn’t come in until very early this morning and cable news anchors stayed on the air  through it all. CNN’s coverage after 1am provided a lot of great bloopers

Here’s Erin Burnett flicking a magic wall, Anderson Cooper saying “have we all just given up here?” and “I don’t know what the hell a social media screen is” and Wolf Blitzer looking anxious in “Late Night Takes over CNN Anchors“ 

Here’s Piers Morgan clearly interrupting Anderson Cooper when he was about to follow-up with a question 

AND THE BEST VIDEO OF THE NIGHT Here’s Wolf Blitzer and John King ON THE PHONE with Clinton County Election Officials Edith & Carolyn, including “what do you mean the numbers don’t match?” 

WELCOME to our new subscribers who came via a link in this morning’s COLLEGE DAYBREAK. Welcome to the Evening Report, we’re glad to have you! 

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7 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
18 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
21 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS

CAUCUS EDITION

BREAKING: Texas Govenror Rick Perry has just said he will reassess his presidential campaign and return to Texas- canceling a full line up of events planned in South Carolina tomorrow. 

THE LATEST- ROMNEY AND SANTORUM IN VIRTUAL TIE FOR IOWA- The Washington Post’s Karen Tumulty

“Three sharply different Republican candidates were on course to split the bulk of votes in Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses as a chaotic campaign season culminated with the first real ballots cast.

With 96 percent of precincts reporting at 11:40 p.m. Eastern, former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.) was in a virtual tie with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, leading him by just 79 votes. Both of them hovered around 24.6 percent of the total, with Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) close behind at 21 points. It seemed possible that this year’s winner — whoever it turns out to be — would finish with the lowest percentage total of any GOP winner in Iowa’s modern history, sinking below Bob Dole’s 26 percent in 1996.”

THE ORDER LEAVING IOWA

FIRST/SECOND: SANTORUM/ROMNEY- separated by TENS of votes
THIRD: PAUL
FOURTH: GINGRICH
FIFTH : PERRY
SIXTH: BACHMANN

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

One week from tonight, we’ll be reporting on the New Hampshire Primary. Between now and then, there are two debates- on Saturday night and Sunday morning on Meet The Press. the first question will be if all of the second tier candidates (Gingrich, Perry and Bachmann) go on. The next question will be which of the candidates decide to compete in New Hampshire, where Romney has held a commanding lead for months, and which go on to South Carolina, which holds its primary two weeks from this coming Saturday.

Four weeks from tonight, Florida will hold its primary, the fourth early state of the season. Today, the Romney campaign announced that they have begun airing television ads in the Sunshine State, the first major campaign to do so. As we reported last night, Romney is already on the air in South Carolina, with a $260,000 ad buy.

THIS HAPPENED TONIGHT

SHOT- @RonPaul: @jonhuntsman we found your one Iowa voter, he’s in Linn precinct 5 you might want to call him and say thanks

CHASER- Huntsman spokesperson- “We find it odd that Congressman Paul would attack Gov. Huntsman in such a childish fashion. Just the latest in a long line of odd statements from him.”

THE BATTLE FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE- Fourth place finisher Newt Gingrich is going to take the gloves off. This full page ad is running tomorrow in the New Hampshire Union Leaderhttp://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/01/newt-to-make-sidebyside-comparison-with-mitt-in-the-109494.html. This confirms earlier reporting by NBC’s Andrea Mitchell tonight.

UPDATE: And in his speech to supporters in Iowa tonight, Gingrich seemed angry…no where close to dropping out..and ready to serve the role of attack dog against Romney in the New Hampshire debates and then in South Carolina…which will allow Santorum the time he needs to build an organization 

AWKWARD MOMENT: Rick Santorum’s nephew endorsed Ron Paul today. From the Des Moines Register, “John Garver, a student at the University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown,  endorsed Paul in a column published today in The Daily Caller, a news web site launched  last year by political pundit Tucker Carlson and former GOP adviser Neil Patel.

In the piece, Garver said Santorum’s “interventionist policies, both domestic and foreign, stem from his irrational fear of freedom not working”

The 19-year-old went on to say: “It is because of this inability of status quo politicians to recognize the importance of our individual liberties that I have been drawn to Ron Paul. Unlike my uncle, he does not believe that the American people are incapable of forming decisions. He believes that an individual is more powerful than any group (a notion our founding fathers also believed in).”

ANSWERING THE QUESTIONS. In the Des Moines Register this morning, political writer Jennifer Jacobs floated the following questions- what she would be looking for tonight (as reported in James Hobbermann’s Morning Score today)

Can Bachmann and Perry keep their people, or will they go to Santorum?
It went to Perry.

Will Bachmann get fewer votes than she got in the Iowa straw poll (just under 5,000)?
So far, yes.

Can Perry right the ship and finish ahead of Gingrich?
Nope.

Is the ‘Santorum surge’ real?
Indeed.

Will Paul do better or worse than polling predicts?
Better.

Will the evangelicals lock arms behind a single candidate?
Apparently.

Will the desire to beat President Barack Obama drive voters to Mitt Romney, the candidate whom likely caucusgoers consider most electable?
Electability was key, but conservatism was moreso.

If Paul pulls this off, is it evidence of passion for a candidate and his ideas, or disenchantment with both political parties and a sign that voters are so frustrated they’re willing to upset the apple cart?
He didn’t pull it off

Will Iowa beat the record turnout? [The GOP record is 118,411 in 2008.]
It was very close, and it looks like a record. 

WALL STREET- from CNBC- “Stocks Kick Off 2012 With a Bang, Led by Banks”

• DOW up 180
• NASDAQ up 44
• S&P 500 up 20

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