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The Evening Report for Wednesday November 16, 2011

TOP STORY: The Supercommittee: will they or won’t they reach a deal one week from today when they report back on their deficit reduction proposal, as they are required to by law?

There have been conflicting reports throughout the day today as to whether the Committee will come up short or will reach a bi-partisan agreement. Today, the Committee announced that they will hold a public “mark-up” session next week, which will be an opportunity for each of the 12 members of the bi-partisan, bicameral panel to make public statements to voice their opinions on different pieces of the legislation, before they cast a single up or down vote in the middle of next week.

As we get closer to the final deadline for the Supercommittee, smaller issues are going to become big deals. Here’s what National Journal reports tonight is the latest sticking point: health care.

“A dispute broke out between super-committee negotiators on Wednesday over whether other committees can cut health programs in a two-step deficit-reduction process.

The disagreement involved the panel’s possible two-step strategy, which would have committees with tax jurisdiction raising billions from an overhaul of the tax code next year.

Republicans insisted that the committees also have the authority to cut any programs under their jurisdiction, including Medicare and Medicaid. Democrats balked, saying that the second-step committee cuts could come from tax changes only.”

One of the most remarkable traits of the Supercommittee since it was formed in the summer has been its overall secrecy and the ability of its members to be tight-lipped regarding aspects of the negotiations.

Indeed, on a pretty regular basis, each week has seen two types of stories: that the Committee was deadlocked and no where close to reaching a minimal agreement, and that the Committee was going to shock Washington, and the political system as a whole, by “going big” and producing a large deficit reduction grand bargain.

Still tonight, we don’t know which way the Committee is trending as there have been mixed signals for the past several days.

Here’s how POLITICO’s Jake Sherman & Manu Raju wrap up the Supercommittee’s day

“In sum, all the maneuvering seemed to paint a picture of confusion, panic and blame-passing as Congress with approval ratings in the gutter attempts to patch up yet another fiscal mess.

On a day when the national debt surpassed $15 trillion, the six Democrats and six Republicans on the supercommittee met separately in tense closed-door meetings and strategized with congressional leaders. In phone calls and personal meetings, Republicans discussed proposals old and new a half-dozen times — and each side struggled to coalesce around plans that could pass bipartisan muster, or be used to maximize political cover.”

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL TODAY

“Can you believe that? That’s what our president thinks is wrong with America? That Americans are lazy? That’s pathetic.” - Rick Perry

“Sometimes, I just don’t think that President Obama understands America.” - Mitt Romney

These quotes from the Republican presidential candidates come after President Obama was asked a question about foreign investment in the United States at the APEC Summit in Hawaii over the weekend. Here’s what he said:

“I think it’s important to remember that the United States is still the largest recipient of foreign investment in the world. And there are a lot of things that make foreign investors see the U.S. as a great opportunity: our stability, our openness, our innovative free-market culture. But we’ve been a little bit lazy, I think, over the last couple of decades. We’ve kind of taken for granted — well, people will want to come here, and we aren’t out there hungry, selling America and trying to attract new business into America.”

To be fair to the President, his Republican rivals are taking his remark squarely out of context. The President was speaking to a group of business executives and was not referring to the American people specifically. However, the quote is likely to find its way, explicitly or subliminally, into the Republican strategy throughout 2012.

WHITE HOUSE SHOOTING INVESTIGATION: Police in Pennsylvania today arrested a 21 year-old man, Oscar Ramiro Ortega-Hernandez, who is suspected of firing an AK-47 assault rifle in close proximity to the White House late Friday evening.

Yesterday, the Secret Service announced that they had found shell casings and believe that a bullet had grazed a window on the upper level of The White House but they had not yet drawn a definitive link back to Hernandez, who is wanted in Friday’s incident.

As the Washington Post reports:

“Ortega-Hernandez fired shots with an AK-47-style assault rifle about 9:30 p.m. Friday — his 21st birthday — while in a car at 16th Street and Constitution Avenue, police said.

Minutes later, Ortega-Hernandez abandoned the car a short distance away, in the 2300 block of Constitution Avenue, and ran away, police said. They said they found the rifle and an undisclosed number of spent shell casings in the car.”

As for the bullet that was found on the White House property:

“For several days after the shooting, police said they had not found bullet-related damage to structures in the area. On Tuesday morning, however, authorities discovered at least one bullet hole in a window on the side of the White House facing the Ellipse and the Washington Monument, according to the Secret Service.

The bullet had pierced the “historic exterior glass” of the window but was stopped by ballistic glass installed behind the normal glass. “One additional round has been found on the exterior of the White House,” the Secret Service said in a statement.

The official familiar with the investigation said FBI ballistics examiners will seek to determine whether the bullets came from the assault rifle found in the car that Ortega-Hernandez abandoned.

The Secret Service said the damage “has not been conclusively connected to Friday’s incident, and an assessment of the exterior of the White House is ongoing.”

President Obama was not at The White House on Friday and is now in Australia, as part of an Asian-Pacific tour. Today the President announced that 250 Marines will begin to form a US military base in Australia next year, and 2,500 troops will be stationed in the region by 2013.

WALL STREET: In the final hour of trading on Wall Street today, the ratings agency Fitch delivered a report on US bank exposure to Europe that sent the markets sharply lower. The report said, “unless the euro zone debt crisis is resolved in a timely and orderly manner, the broad credit outlook for the U.S. banking industry could worsen.”

  • DOW down 191
  • NASDAQ down 47
  • S&P 500 down 21

ALL EYES ON SYRIA: Violence has intensified in Syria, the worst in the nearly seven months of consistent protest against the government of Bashar Assad, in the last 48-hours and all eyes are now on the region. The question everyone is asking is, “Is Syria next?” meaning the next nation to force its leader from power in the year-long Arab awakening.

Today the Arab League, which voted to kick Syria out over the weekend, issued a deadline for the Syrian government to end its oppression against its people in three days. It is not immediately clear what consequences may come as a result of that order. Many observers, however, say that the situation in Syria is much different that Libya or Egypt- namely that Assad has a greater chance of being toppled from within. 

Here’s analysis from the BBC’s Jon Leyne in Damascus:

“As diplomatic pressure increases on Damascus, the situation on the ground is deteriorating as well.

Last night, soldiers who defected from the Syrian army mounted an attack on an intelligence base north of Damascus. It was the most significant attack so far by defectors and was remarkable for being against such a high-profile target so close to the capital.

More and more clashes are being reported between the regular army and opponents who now call themselves the Free Syrian Army.

That raises the spectre of this turning into a full-scale civil war. “

FINALLY...today Google announced its latest product, a large-scale entry into an already crowded market, with Google Music, at music.google.com. The launch of the Google Music Store, with easy download and integration with the Android platform, sets Google up as a competitor to Apple, which owns the iTunes Music Store which easily syncs with the iPhone and other Apple devices.

From the Associated Press,

“The desktop service is available to all users in the United States right now at music.google.com. The Google Music Android app should be available for all Android smartphones and tablets in the coming days for everyone with Android 2.2 and above. There was no mention of iOS devices like iPhones or iPads, though Google did note that the desktop Google Music Manager is available on Windows, Mac and Linux computers. (Beware, however, as the Google Music Beta was heavily criticized as taking weeks to upload a library worth of songs.)

Google also opened up a Google Music store, similar to iTunes, which the company says will be driven by musical recommendations. There are two kind of recommendations up front in the store: First, recommendations from Google’s “music geeks” about what’s hot on the music scene; and second, a machine-listening recommendation engine, which analyzes your entire collection and suggests which songs and albums the user may enjoy. The Android Market’s new music store is already open.”

The Evening Report for Wednesday November 09, 2011

POST-DEBATE EDITION

BREAKING: The Trustees of Pennsylvania State University held a news conference at 10pm to announce that they have fired head football coach Joe Paterno and University President Graham Spanier amid a growing child sex abuse scandal with allegations of abuse facing a longtime assistant coach. Yesterday, Paterno announced that he had planned to retire after this season.

THE DEBATE:

The Ninth Republican Presidential Candidates Debate just concluded from the campus of Oakland University in Oakland (outside of Rochester), Michigan. The one-hour forty-five minute debate aired on CNBC and was moderated by John Harwood and Maria Bartiromo.

THREE Takeaway from tonight’s debate:

1/ Rick Perry suffered a seemingly devastating moment for his campaign when he suggested that he would eliminate three federal departments under his budget/deficit reduction plan, then turned to Ron Paul (who proposes eliminating five departments) to list them, and could not remember the third, after Education and Commerce.

Another candidate on stage said “EPA” in an attempt to help Perry recover. But then Perry was prompted by Harwood “seriously? seriously, EPA was the one you were looking for?” he asked. And Perry was still not able to come up with the third cabinet department…Harwood “but you can’t name the third one?” Perry “I would do away with education…with commerce..and..let’s see…I can’t..the third one…I’m sorry.”

Twenty minutes later, when answering a different question, Perry finally said that he was trying to remember that it was the department of energy.

Here’s the video of the full question (it’s about 2 minutes long, forward to 1:40 for the Perry “oops” moment)

2/ Herman Cain went through the debate nearly unscathed. Now in the second week of allegations of sexual harassment, and with four accusers who have come forward with statements alleging misconduct by Cain, this was the dominant campaign narrative going into the debate.

But we knew this debate was hard-centered around jobs and the economy. Indeed, although the first question (on the Italian debt crisis) did go to Cain, it wasn’t until 20 minutes into the debate that Cain was asked directly about the allegations. Moderator Maria Bartaromo was booed by the audience for asking the question and Cain gave what has become his standard response- blaming the media and saying that he does not deserve to be judged in the court of public opinion.

Harwood asked a follow-up question to Romney- asking whether he would fire Cain if he was CEO of his company. Romney ducked and avoided an opportunity to draw distance between himself and (for now) his chief rival for the Republican nomination. That was a telling exchange that ended the discussion of Cain’s allegations at the debate. And now with a Perry fumble, it is possible that Cain has escaped completely from allegations that threatened his candidacy.

3/ Mitt Romney looked and sounded like the Republican presidential nominee. With the exception of messed up hair tonight, Romney was in control when answering questions and gave solid, well-rounded answers on everything from taxes to the European debt crisis to Chinese currency manipulation. He avoided calling out other candidates by name, choosing instead to focus all criticism on President Obama. Likewise, only Jon Huntsman took a serious shot at Romney (continuing a theme he started on Meet the Press on Sunday), accusing Romney of waffling on his Chinese policy. Despite some edging by Harwood, the exchange did not result in any of the intra-candidate fireworks like we have seen in previous debates

THE EVENING REPORT DEBATE SCORECARD: Romney, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, Santorum, Bachmann, Paul, Perry.

IN OTHER NEWS:

AWFUL STORY FOR VETERANS DAY: Breaking tonight from the Washington Post- “Remains of war dead dumped in landfill”

“The Dover Air Force Base mortuary for years disposed of portions of troops’ remains by cremating them and dumping the ashes in a Virginia landfill, a practice that officials have since abandoned in favor of burial at sea.

The Dover, Del., mortuary, the main point of entry for the nation’s war dead and the target of federal investigations of alleged mishandling of remains, engaged in the practice from 2003 to 2008, according to Air Force officials. The manner of disposal was not disclosed to relatives of fallen service members.”

IS ITALY NEXT IN EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS? The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down over 3% today on new fears from Europe that Italy may be the next county to suffer from a growing sovereign debt crisis. Borrowing costs today hit 7% as the BBC reports:

“Italy’s cost of borrowing has touched a new record, a day after Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said he would resign once budget reforms were passed. If Italy tried to borrow money today, payable in 10 years, it would have to pay an interest rate of more than 7%.

Investors fear that Italy could become the next victim of the debt crisis. In a bid to calm markets, President Giorgio Napolitano said reforms would be passed and Mr Berlusconi would resign “within a few days. The 7% level is widely viewed as unsustainable and was the point at which Portugal, Greece and the Irish Republic were forced to seek a bailout.”

WALL STREET

  • Dow down 328
  • NASDAQ down 106
  • S&P 500 down 47

FINALLY- Today the federal government conducted the first ever nationwide test of the Emergency Alert System (EAS), broadcasting a 30-second alert at 2pm ET on all television and radio stations across the country. The FCC, other federal agencies, and the private sector are still reviewing the data from today’s test- which worked well in some places, and not so well in others, according to a statement from the FCC,

“The Nationwide EAS Test served the purpose for which it was intended, to identify gaps and generate a comprehensive set of data to help strengthen our ability to communicate during real emergencies. Based on preliminary data, large regions of the country received the test but some areas did not. We are currently in the process of collecting and analyzing data, and will reach a conclusion when that process is complete.”

Here’s how the test looked today: (scroll to about 2 minutes in this amateur video).

The Evening Report for Monday October 31

Happy Halloween!

PREMIERING TONIGHT: “Rock Center” with Brian Williams- the network’s new primetime new magazine hosted by the anchor of the top-ranked evening news broadcast.

TOP STORY: It was a bad day for Herman Cain. As POLITICO first reported last night, the Republican presidential frontrunner is facing charges of sexual harassment that stem from his time as head of the National Restaurant Association. As chance would have it, Cain was in Washington today, where he was trailed by beltway political reporters. This morning, Cain spoke at the conservative American Enterprise Institute and at 12:30 he delivered a luncheon address at the National Press Club. In between, he went on FOX News for an interview and later this afternoon was interviewed by PBS’s Judy Woodruff for the Newshour tonight.

As POLITICO’s Alex Burns reports tonight, Cain’s day was filled with conflicting stories and carefully worded statements:

“Cain told the PBS “NewsHour” that he recalled a financial “agreement” with a woman who accused him of inappropriate behavior at the National Restaurant Association.

Only hours before, Cain said he was unaware of any “settlement” related to sexual harassment – a reversal he attempted to explain away through verbal hair-splitting.

“I was aware that an agreement was reached. The word ‘settlement’ versus the word ‘agreement’ you know, I’m not sure what they called it. I know that there was some sort of agreement, but because it ended up being minimal, they didn’t have to bring it to me. My general counsel and the head of human resources had the authority to resolve this thing,” Cain said.”

WHERE THIS LEAVES THE CAMPAIGN: This is the kind of story that just isn’t going to away for Cain. The media is looking into every aspect of this story..and it hardly matters that it may be 15 years old. Cain is not helping his cause by seemingly changing the story by the hour- such inconsistencies make him appear to be a candidate who is confused and on the defensive. The person who might gain the most from what is turning into the political story of the week? Mitt Romney. For every day before voting begins that the attention is on somebody other than Romney, the better for Romney’s chances- and for the air of inevitability around him.

RICK PERRY also had a bad day. This video (and other variations and spoofs) is making its way around the Internet. It shows Perry in New Hampshire delivering a speech over the weekend. He appears more animated than usual, very lively behind the podium with frequent gesticulations, almost as if he is intoxicated. It’s too early to know what this video may mean for the campaign- if anything- but it did get airtime on the evening news tonight

JUST IN- Connecticut has been declared a Federal Disaster Area, per an order signed by President Obama this evening. It makes aid available for state and local governments in response to the weekend’s unusual but devastating October snow storm. Over half of Connecticut Light and Power customers remain without electricity tonight and many jurisdictions issued emergency orders postponing Halloween festivities, including trick-or-treating, tonight. It could be a week or longer before power is restored.

GREECE’S Prime Minister, George Papandreou, announced today that his nation will hold a referendum on a bailout proposal once details are finalized with the European Union. Protests have continued in Greece since the framework for a deal was announced last week and it is unclear if a no-confidence vote like what Papandreou is proposing would pass.

WALL STREET: News from overseas was felt on Wall Street again today and markets finished near their lows for the session.

  • DOW down 276
  • NASDAQ down 53
  • S&P 500 down 32

PRESIDENT OBAMA underwent a physical exam today (his second since taking office) and the White House reported the President’s medical report, which found him in “excellent health” and “fit for duty”

“All clinical data indicate he will remain so for the duration of his Presidency. The president is current on all age-appropriate screening tests. He is ‘fit at fifty’ and “staying health at 50+” the report says. It also reported a “well healed lower lip laceration.” Benign skin tags were removed from the President’s neck.

THE PRESIDENT weighs 181.3 pounds.

UNESCO- the United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Affairs Organization- most well-known for the UNESCO World Heritage Sites- today voted to permit the Palestinian Authority to have full membership in its body- a move that prompted the United States to announce that it would pull its funding for UNESCO, per standing US law. The United States supports UNESCO with about 22% of its budget- $80 million a year.

As the Associated Press reports:

“The prohibition on U.S. funding of U.N. agencies that recognize a Palestinian state was included in two pieces of legislation that were signed into law by President George H.W. Bush in 1990 and President Bill Clinton in 1994.

The 1990 law prohibits the appropriation of funds “for the United Nations or any specialized agency thereof which accords the Palestine Liberation Organization the same standing as a member state.”

In 1994, Congress barred funding “any affiliated organization of the United Nations which grants full membership as a state to any organization or group that does not have the internationally recognized attributes of statehood.”

AND FINALLY…Kim Kardashian and Kris Humphries are divorcing, it was announced today. TMZ broke the story and obtained the official divorce documents. The couple have been married since August 20th, “in a lavish ceremony in Montecito, CA. There are reports that the wedding cost as much as $10 mil, which means $138,888 for every day until today,” TMZ reported.

The Evening Report for Sunday October 30

BREAKINGPOLITICO top story ”Exclusive—Two Women Accuse Herman Cain of Inappropriate Behavior”: 

“During Herman Cain’s tenure as the head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s, at least two female employees complained to colleagues and senior association officials about inappropriate behavior by Cain, ultimately leaving their jobs at the trade group, multiple sources confirm to POLITICO.”

“The women complained of sexually suggestive behavior by Cain that made them angry and uncomfortable, the sources said, and they signed agreements with the restaurant group that gave them financial payouts to leave the association. The agreements also included language that bars the women from talking about their departures.”

Cain was asked about the allegations after an interview on CBS’s Face The Nation this morning. 

“Have you ever been accused, sir, in your life of harassment by a woman?” a POLITICO reporter asked.

“He breathed audibly, glared at the reporter and stayed silent for several seconds. After the question was repeated three times, he responded by asking the reporter, “Have you ever been accused of sexual harassment?”

INSTANT ANALYSIS: Herman Cain is currently the Republican presidential frontrunner- but is running on a makeshift campaign that has never before competed on the national stage. Watch to see how much traction this story gets, now that POLITICO has decided to run with it after 10 days of reporting. Then watch to see how the Cain campaign responds- and how fellow Republican campaigns handle the story. This could be the beginning of the end of the Cain surge- or it could just be a below-the-fold story that he is able to weather (much like the increased scrutiny of his 9-9-9 plan in October)

HAPPENING TONIGHT: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is holding a dinner at Gracie Mansion with key senators and business and labor leaders, who are brainstorming a strategy to urge the Congressional Supercommittee to “go big” and consider a “grand bargain” in its final report 24 days from tomorrow. According to a National Journal report on Friday, the dinner includes Senators Michael Bennet, Mark Warner and Bob Corker. Only 10-20 people are expected at the dinner. As the House returns this week, and the Supercommittee holds its next public hearing, attention will turn to the panel’s final weeks of negotiations.

TOPPING THE WEEKEND: Last night, the Des Monies Register released their latest 2012 caucus poll. This vaunted survey is a tradition in Iowa politics and is usually an accurate bellwether of where the race stands. Last night’s results continued a trend from other national surveys last week- showing businessman Herman Cain continuing to post impressive leads. Cain is in a statistical (the margin of error was +/- 4.9%) dead heat with Mitt Romney. That is an impressive showing for Romney, who has gone back and forth for months about how many resources to commit to Iowa. (He has made just three visits to Iowa this year). With these results, Romney has little choice but to make a showing- the poll indicates he can win. Finally, the poll shows the weakness that Rick Perry is having connecting with voters. The conventional wisdom is that Perry is challenging Romney for the nomination- but this survey is just the latest to indicate that is really not the case.

  • CAIN 23% 
  • ROMNEY 22%
  • PAUL 12%
  • BACHMANN 8%
  • GINGRICH 7%
  • PERRY 7%
  • SANTORUM 5%
  • HUNTSMAN 1%

TOP TALKER TOMORROWWashington Post- ”Hillary’s War: Clinton credited with key role in success of NATO airstrikes, Libyan rebels” it includes reporting chronicling the US decision to intervene in Libya beginning in March. A selection:

“In Washington and in Europe, the word “stalemate” began to creep into opinion columns as lawmakers, skeptical of U.S. policy in Libya, began threatening to block funds for military operations there. Meanwhile, a cash crunch also loomed for the rebels, who were unable to sell oil and were legally blocked from tapping into Gaddafi’s overseas bank accounts. By early July, they had run out of money for weapons, food and other critical supplies.”

“Clinton, ignoring the advice of the State Department’s lawyers, convinced Obama to grant full diplomatic recognition to the rebels, a move that allowed the Libyans access to billions of dollars from Gaddafi’s frozen accounts. At a meeting in Istanbul on July 15, she pressed 30 other Western and Arab governments to make the same declaration.”

WINTER STORM AFTERMATH: A rare October snowstorm brought over 2 feet of snow to some areas of Connecticut and Western Massachusetts over the weekend and caused extensive damage to the region’s power infrastructure. Connecticut Light and Power- the primary utility company in the state- reported the most number of outages at one time in the company’s history- at one point surpassing 884,000 customers. 

Tonight, roughly 750,000 customers remain without power- and it could be a week before some of the hardest hit areas have power restored. This storm comes just weeks after Hurricane Irene brought damage to the same region. Both events are historic and extremely rare- a tropical system and an October heavy snow storm. Connecticut Governor Dan Malloy joined Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick in declaring a State of Emergency on Saturday and requested federal assistance.

In Coventry, Connecticut, local officials are advising residents to postpone Halloween trick-or-treating until FRIDAY due to unsafe road conditions and concern of the danger from downed trees and power lines. The Governor said today that decisions on Halloween activities will be left to municipalities on a case by case basis.

AT THE BOX OFFICE this weekend

1. Puss In Boots- $34 million
2. Paranormal Activity 3- $18.5 million
3. In Time- $12 million

THE PRESIDENT’S WEEK AHEAD:

Monday- meets with Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair
Tuesday & Wednesday- meetings at the White House
Thursday & Friday- in Cannes, France for the G-20 Summit
Friday- returns to the White House

ABOUT THE G-20: The G-20 was established in the wake of the 1997 Asian financial crisis and has held yearly meetings since its formation in 1999. This year, the Group of 20 industrialized nations will again deal with a serious financial crisis- in Europe- that threatens to outrank both the 1997 and 2008 crises. As a result of the 2008 financial crisis, full meetings with heads of states of the member nations began- and were held semi-annually for two years (2009 & 2010) and will be held annually beginning this year.

19 countries and a representative of the European Union make up the G-20. They are:

  1. Argentina
  2. Australia
  3. Brazil
  4. Canada
  5. China
  6. European Union
  7. France
  8. Germany
  9. India
  10. Indonesia
  11. Italy
  12. Japan
  13. Mexico
  14. Russia
  15. Saudi Arabia
  16. South Africa
  17. Republic of Korea
  18. Turkey
  19. United Kingdom
  20. United States of America

RECENT G-20 SUMMITS:

2010- Seoul, South Korea & Toronto, Canada
2009- Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US & London, UK
2008- Washington, DC, US

THREE THINGS TO WATCH FOR IN THE WEEK AHEAD:

1/ The Cain Story. How will POLITICO’s reporting this Sunday night of sexual harassment allegations against the Republican presidential frontrunner effect the state of the race? The first indication of staying power will be if other news organizations pick up on POLITICO’s reporting where it left off. There are still more questions than there are answers as to exactly how serious these allegations are, or how credible the sources are.

2/ The Supercommittee. As the calendar turns to November, all eyes in Washington will be on the Joint Congressional Committee on Deficit Reduction- a panel of 12 members of Congress that has the potential to be one of the largest political stories of the year- or one of the biggest let-downs. Watch the Committee’s latest public hearing this week for any indication as to if they are close to consensus. Also, continue to watch for any leaks from a panel that has been remarkably tight-lipped to date.

3/ Jobs and the Economy. Friday brings the latest employment report as the Labor Department offers a snapshot of the October employment picture. That will drive the end of the week on Wall Street. In the mean time, watch to see if the markets continue their gains from this past week and month. External events- the European debt negotiations, the G-20 Summit, and the Supercommittee negotiations, will also continue to drive the markets.

The Golden Report for Tuesday October 11

POST DEBATE EDITION

The Seventh Republican Presidential Candidates Debate just concluded from Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire. Eight candidates shared the stage- and for the first time this election season, sat around what moderator Charlie Rose described as a “kitchen table.” The nearly two-hour debate, sponsored by Bloomberg and The Washington Post- and airing on Bloomberg television but not on a major cable news channel- was the second to be held in New Hampshire this cycle, the state which is expected to play host to the “first in the nation” primary in early January. 

Three takeaways:

1/ Romney is the frontrunner

2/ Cain has a 9-9-9 Problem

3/ Santorum had a good night.

1/ From his poise to his answers. His jokes to his choice of a candidate to address a question of. There was absolutely no doubt that Mitt Romney not only won this debate, but is the Republican presidential frontrunner with a good chance at beating President Obama next November. Romney towered over his opponents at tonight’s debate, deflecting their criticisms with a commanding presence that seemed professorial. He even at one point held his finger in the air and wagged it at Rick Perry, scolding him saying “I’m still talking Rick, I’m still talking.” When it came time to answer a hard question poised by the moderators- if Europe’s looming debt crisis was a threat to the American economy- Romney again played a card from the upper deck, challenging the premise of the question as hypothetical. And late in the debate when it seemed that there wouldn’t be a question specifically about it, he reminded his fellow candidates- as if they needed reminding- of the big political news pre-debate: that he had secured the coveted endorsement of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Yes, Romney is the Republican frontrunner and he handily won tonight’s debate.

2/ What spared Hermain Cain’s rise from third-tier to first-tier candidate in less than a month? His repetition at the six previous debates of his economic plan: 9-9-9. The simplicity of the catchphrase- that Jon Huntsman tonight said first reminded him of a pizza deal- is also Cain’s biggest liability. Huntsman, Bachmann, Gingrich, Santorum, Paul, Perry & Romney (those would be all of the other candidates) took swipes- some specific, some veiled, at the plan tonight. Santorum was the most aggressive- turning to the audience of Granite State residents notorious for their “live free or die” mantra and asking them how many want to see a 9% sales tax. No hands went up. “There’s your evidence, Herman, it’s not going to work,” Santorum said. 

3/ Which leads into the final point of the initial takeaways: Rick Santorum had a good night. Of the third-tier candidates, he was the most animated, even commanding at times. Clearly angered that Herman Cain has become the darling of Tea Party conservatives- a group that he needs in order to place well in January’s Iowa Caucus, Santorum knows that he was to either distinguish himself from Cain or tear him down. And he has decided on the latter. Watch to see how Mitt Romney- who remembers how Santorum joined his pile on of Rick Perry in previous debates- may come to the aide of Rick Santorum in next week’s debate. 

THE LEAD- as it is evolving, in The Washington Post, as of 10:15pm, “The government is the problem. That was the message Tuesday night as the eight Republican presidential hopefuls clamored to blame Washington for the nation’s economic ills. In turn, they pointed fingers at President Obama, the Federal Reserve and the government generally as the cause of the nation’s economic collapse. Together, they were strident in their belief that Obama-era regulations are stunting growth. Yet although the White House aspirants largely agreed on their overall visions, the two candidates whose positions at the top of the field were expected to rise or fall in Tuesday’s Washington Post-Bloomberg News debate at Dartmouth College — Texas Gov. Rick Perry and businessman Herman Cain — were short on policy specifics, even when pressed by the moderators.”

AND IN POLITICO, “The Republican presidential candidates found their target for the evening: Herman Cain and his “9-9-9” tax plan. The former pizza executive has thrilled Republican primary voters with his proposal to toss out the U.S. tax code and replace it with 9 percent taxes on business, income and sales. But now that he’s swiftly rising in the polls, his rivals are clearly hoping to puncture his political balloon.”

THE BACK TIER: Aside from some awkwardly-timed jokes, Jon Huntsman showed he is a candidate who will soon be forgotten in this field. And Rick Perry had another bad night. As we predicted last evening, he did not have nearly as much time as he has in previous debates, but when he did speak, he didn’t seem passionate or knowledgeable- at one point nearly-stuttering and looking around the room as if to say “I don’t know the answer.” Perry showed that his campaign is quickly on the decline. 

THE EVENING REPORT CANDIDATES RANKINGS- who won, and who lost- tonight’s debate:

Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Jon Huntsman

IN OTHER NEWS

It was a very busy news Tuesday. Here are the other top stories of this day:

ISRAEL PRISONER SWAP IMMINENT 

The Israeli Cabinet- meeting in emergency session today- agreed to a prisoner swap that will allow Sgt. Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier who has been held by the Palestinian group Hamas since 2006 to be released.

From the New York Times, “Israel and Hamas announced an agreement on Tuesday to exchange more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners for an Israeli soldier held captive in Gaza for five years, a deal brokered by Egypt that seemed likely to shake up Middle East politics at a time when the region is immersed in turmoil.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel told his nation in a live address on television that the soldier, Staff Sgt. Gilad Shalit, who was  captured in June 2006 at the age of 19, could be home “within days,” ending what has been widely seen in Israel as a national trauma.It was unclear what drove the two to accept a deal that had been on the table for years. But both stand to benefit politically and had reasons to distract attention from the efforts of Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, as he circles the globe seeking votes for his bid to gain United Nations membership for a state of Palestine.”

IRANIAN-LINKED TERROR PLOT UNRAVELED

Attorney General Eric Holder announced today that a FBI sting operation has uncovered and unraveled a significant plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the United States, with links to both Iran and Mexico. 

From Reuters, “U.S. authorities said they had broken up a plot by two men linked to Iran’s security agencies to assassinate Saudi Ambassador Adel al-Jubeir. One was arrested last month while the other was believed to be in Iran. Iran denied the charges. But President Barack Obama called the plot a “flagrant violation of U.S. and international law” and Saudi Arabia said it was “despicable.” U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder alleged that the plot was the work of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is the guardian of Iran’s 32-year-old revolution, and the Quds force, its covert, operational arm. “High-up officials in those (Iranian) agencies, which is an integral part of the Iranian government, were responsible for this plot,” Holder told the news conference. “I think one has to be concerned about the chilling nature of what the Iranian government attempted to do here,” he said

SLOVAKIA REJECTS EUROZONE BAILOUT FUND

This afternoon the Slovakian Parliament rejected, by 21 votes, the Eurozone bailout fund proposal. Slovakia is the 17th and final country whose approval is necessary for the measure to be ratified and its defeat sends into chaos the current efforts to save the European financial system from collapse. However, a second vote is expected in the Parliament within days and is expected to pass. Today’s measure also included a vote of no confidence against the sitting Slovak coalition government. 

From the BBC, “The governing coalition had linked the vote to a confidence motion and as a result has effectively been toppled. Slovakia is the last of the eurozone’s 17 members to vote on expanding the European Financial Stability Facility. However, the BBC’s Rob Cameron says a second vote could be held soon and is likely to succeed. The measure failed to pass by 21 votes, but that result had been anticipated after a junior party in the centre-right coalition said it would abstain. The Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) party said it was opposed to Slovakia’s taxpayers being asked to cover the debts of richer countries. Many Slovaks feel their country - the second poorest in the eurozone - should not have to bail out countries like Greece.”

WALL STREET TODAY

Dow down 17

NASDAQ up 17

S&P 500 up 1

SENATE 

The Senate tonight, in a procedural vote, defeated President Obama’s jobs plan, in a complete bill form, failing to reach the 60 votes necessary to bring the bill to a vote. The President, campaigning in Orlando after touring a manufacturing plant in Pittsburgh and receiving an interim report from his Jobs and Competitiveness Council today, released a statement saying that tonight’s vote was only the beginning of his efforts to get Congress to pass the American Jobs Act.

From The Hill, “In the run-up to the vote, Obama’s political advisers portrayed it as a black-and-white partisan fight between a president trying to address the nation’s high unemployment rate and Senate Republican leaders more interested in partisan politics than the national good. “Their strategy is to suffocate the economy for the sake of what they think will be a political victory,” Jim Messina, campaign manager of Obama for America, wrote in an email to supporters. “They think that the more folks see Washington taking no action to create jobs, the better their chances in the next election. So they’re doing everything in their power to make sure nothing gets done.” [But] Centrist Democrats undercut that narrative by speaking out against Obama’s plan, even though they voted to debate it.”

From Playbook: Mitt Romney’s Foreign Policy Advisory Team

—SPECIAL ADVISERS: Cofer Black … Christopher Burnham … Michael Chertoff … Eliot Cohen … Norm Coleman … John Danilovich … Paula Dobriansky … Eric Edelman … Michael Hayden … Kerry Healey … Kim Holmes … Robert Joseph … Robert Kagan … John Lehman … Walid Phares … Pierre Prosper … Mitchell Reiss … Daniel Senor … Jim Talent … Vin Weber … Richard Williamson … Dov Zakheim. 

—WORKING GROUPS

—Afghanistan & Pakistan: James Shinn, Co-Chair … Ashley Tellis, Co-Chair 

—Africa: Tibor Nagy, Chair 

—Asia-Pacific: Evan Feigenbaum, Co-Chair … Aaron Friedberg, Co-Chair … Kent Lucken, Co-Chair 

—Counter-Proliferation: Eric Edelman, Co-Chair … Robert Joseph, Co-Chair … Stephen Rademaker, Co-Chair 

—Counterterrorism/Intelligence: Michael Chertoff, Co-Chair … Michael Hayden, Co-Chair 

—Defense: John Lehman, Co-Chair … Roger Zakheim, Co-Chair 

—Europe: Nile Gardiner, Co-Chair … Kristen Silverberg, Co-Chair 

—Human Rights: Pierre Prosper, Chair 

—International Assistance: Grant Aldonas, Co-Chair … Daniel Runde, Co-Chair 

—International Organizations: Christopher Burnham, Co-Chair … Paula Dobriansky, Co-Chair … Robert O’Brien, Co-Chair 

—Latin America: Clifford Sobel, Co-Chair … Ray Walser, Co-Chair 

—Middle East & North Africa: Mary Beth Long, Co-Chair … Meghan O’Sullivan, Co-Chair … Walid Phares, Co-Chair 

—Russia: Leon Aron, Co-Chair … William Martel, Co-Chair 

The Golden Report for Thursday September 22

SPECIAL POST-DEBATE EDITION

The Sixth Republican Presidential Candidates Debate has just concluded in Orlando, Florida- the second debate held in the Sunshine state, the third sponsored by and airing on Fox News, and the first with nine presidential candidates (former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson qualified to participate tonight).

THE HIGHLIGHTS:

  • The gloves came off between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. If there was any doubt this was a two-man race, it was erased tonight. Both candidates not only came prepared to counter their opponents arguments but with a strategy to draw clear distinctions between their candidacies.
  • Mitt Romney looked like the upper statesman, in control, and never wavered or flinched. Still, Rick Perry looked eager to engage and had animated responses to every question- even if they sometimes lacked substance and retorted back to talking points. 
  • The “pile on” strategy continued with the other candidates on the stage- especially Rick Santorum- joining in the attacks on Rick Perry. Santorum seems to be leading the second tier pack in this tactic- an indication that he is gunning for a vice-presidential spot.
ROMNEY/PERRY went after each other on Social Security (this has been a theme of the campaign since the last debate), on immigration, on statements from each other’s published books, education policy and authenticity
THE LAST QUESTION: ‘Who would you pick as your VP?’ Here are the candidates responses:
  • Gary Johnson — Ron Paul
  • Rick Santorum — Newt Gingrich
  • Newt Gingrich — Not Making a Decision
  • Ron Paul — Not Making a Decision (“I’m almost in the top tier” he said)
  • Rick Perry— “If you could take Hermain Cain and mate him up with Newt Gingrich you would have a very interesting VP”
  • Mitt Romney — “any one of these men would be better than the President that we have now”
  • Michele Bachmann - “a strong Constitutional Conservative”
  • Hermain Cain — Mitt Romney (“only if he replaces his growth plan with 9/9/9)..otherwise, Newt Gingrich
  • Jon Huntsman — Herman Cain (“because of his selection of ties..we both apparently agree with the gold standard”)
TODAY’S TOP STORY: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 391 points today- 3.5%- as a sell-off that began in Europe- and extending to Asia- engulfed the US markets. Yesterday’s decision by the Federal Reserve for enhanced monetary stimulus did nothing to stop the sell-off. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 were also both down over 3% today. Today’s global selloff comes as world financial leaders are meeting in Washington for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (and as political leaders continue their weeklong meeting in New York at the United Nations General Assembly), which only underscores the urgency in the global economy right now.

AS WE TOLD YOU LAST NIGHT: Today, the board of Hewlett-Packard announced that they have named Meg Whitman, the former CEO of eBay, as their next Chief Executive. “We are fortunate to have someone of Meg Whitman’s caliber and experience step up to lead HP,” Ray Lane, executive chairman of HP’s board of directors, said, “We are at a critical moment. . . . Meg is a technology visionary with a proven track record of execution.”

DEVELOPING- NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE on Capitol Hill tonight- and specifically in the House- where Speaker John Boehner is meeting behind closed doors with his Caucus to determine the next plan of action for a continuing resolution, to keep the government funded beyond next Friday at midnight. A first version of the CR failed on the floor yesterday, with Republicans joining a nearly unified Democratic caucus in defeating it. A vote could come on a revised bill as early as TONIGHT- sometime around midnight eastern. However, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has said that he will defeat this revised CR in the Senate- thus setting up a prolonged showdown that might force Congress to stay in session through its Jewish New Years Recess next week. Some Republicans are aanddvocating the so-called “Solyndra option”- a $100 million offset for increased disaster funding from an Energy Department program that funded the now-failed solar power company

MORE POLITICAL TIDBITS:
  • Michigan Representative Thaddeus McCotter officially dropped out of his longshot bid for the 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination today- and endorsed Mitt Romney
  • Suffolk University New Hampshire Poll: Romney 41%, Paul 14%, Huntsman 10%, Perry 8%, Palin 6%, Bachmann 5%, Gingrich 4%, Santorum 1%, Roemer 1%
  • Former President Bill Clinton will publish a new book in November, titled “Back to Work” which will “offer a plan to get America back into the future of business”
WHAT TO WATCH TOMORROW: Continuing diplomacy at the United Nations, as Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbass may indeed bring his proposal to a vote (which will be vetoed by the United States. Watch to see if there is a last minute maneuver that can avoid any political embarrassment. 

ALSO WATCH: the House vote late tonight on a continuing resolution, and the Senate response.

UPDATES on both big stories in the EARLY EDITION of Friday’s Evening Report.