Interests: Politics, Government, Media, Transportation, Space, Social Media, Civic Engagement, Washington, DC Following: The Obama Presidency, Decision 2012, The 112th Congress Work: myImpact.org- a non-profit working at the intersection of social media & citizen engagement
Catching Elephant is a theme by Andy Taylor
The Golden Report for Friday September 23
FRIDAY EARLY EDITION
TOP STORY: SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN IN THREE PARTS
THE VOTES: The House of Representatives voted at 12:30am ET on a Continuing Resolution, their second attempt at a bill to keep the government funding beyond the end of the fiscal year: one week from today. The bill contained the “Solyndra Option”- increases in funding for emergency disaster assistance offset by cuts in a renewable energy program that gave a government-backed grant to the now-failed solar company. The party-line vote was the result of nearly two days of behind door talks with the Speaker and the Republican Caucus. This afternoon, on a 59-36 vote, the Senate failed to reach the 60 votes necessary to consider the House CR. Thereby making it dead. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said today that the Senate will vote on Monday afternoon on a Democratic-sponsored continuing resolution, that is also expected to fail.
THE DEADLINES: According to Congressional officials, the Federal Emergency Management Agency only has about $174 million left in disaster assistance funds. At current burn rates, the money will be expired by Monday at the earliest and Wednesday at the latest. The Federal Government would begin a shutdown at midnight next Friday night, into Saturday morning. A partial shutdown would occur over the weekend (many offices are closed anyway) and a full shutdown on Monday morning. The House of Representatives was supposed to adjourn tonight for a week-long recess, that is now in question- the House would appear to have to stay in session in order to pass a bill to meet both of these deadlines. Both the House and Senate have adjourned for the weekend- delaying any action until next week.
THE NEXT STEP: Far from clear. What we do know is nothing is going to get done this weekend. The Senate could still try to pass the House approved continuing resolution- and by staying in Recess, that is a bargaining chip that House Republicans can play. The obvious next step is for both sides to negotiate on a compromise package- although there do not appear to be any negotiations planned or considered at this time. And unlike the shutdown threat earlier this year, the White House has thus far not become involved in any way on reaching a resolution. Watch to see if there are signs over the weekend- perhaps on the Sunday shows- of movement on any of these three areas.
THE OTHER BIG STORY: Despite posting some gains for the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its worst week since August 2008, down over 6%. The NASDAQ was lower by 5% and the S&P 500 was lower nearly 7% on the week, although all three indices were up today. The culprit? The health of the global economy- specifically in Europe and the continuing Greek debt crisis. Last week’s extraordinary meeting of Euro Zone Finance Ministers with Treasury Secretary Geithner, the statements of support and unity by France and Germany, and this week’s IMF meetings all seem to have done very little to calm the nerves of clearly rattled markets. This week shows that there are not going to be easy answers to solving the underlying problems- and they are not going to come quickly. There is now active conversation about a repeat of 2008: a global economic recession that will be sparked- not by a crisis of credit, but rather by a crisis of confidence. As the IMF met in Washington this week, statements from leaders indicated this concern and a desire to get ahead of financial instability- using any and all monetary and fiscal policy tools at central banks disposals- before a crisis could spread, potentially causing a devastating ripple effect. This was evidenced in an overnight statement from the financial leaders of the G-20 nations which said, in part, there is an urgent need for “a response to address the renewed challenges facing the global economy.”
THE THIRD BIG STORY: At the United Nations today, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas went ahead, as expected, with a proposal to grant the Palestinian Authority statehood status and recognition. Shortly after that move, it was learned that the United States, United Nations, Europe Union and Russia (the quartet) would soon announce a re-opening of peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians. Details are still emerging and will continue to be learned for the rest of the day. If true- then Abbas succeeded in this week’s UN tactics in a sense- because he re-injected the Mid East Peace Process onto the international agenda and forced the international community- distracted by a plethora of issues, including Libya, Iran and the global economy- to focus again on the complexities and challenges of his nation. Statement from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: ““We urge both parties to take advantage of this opportunity to get back to get back to talks, and the United States pledges our support as the parties themselves take the important next steps for a two-solution, which is what all of us are hoping to achieve.”
TWO OTHER INTERNATIONAL STORIES:
FINALLY: The Evening Report comes to you tonight from Phoenix, Arizona- site of the 66th Annual National Conference on Citizenship. Today, the 2011 Arizona Civic Health Index was released at a breakfast before the actual Conference, which came to Arizona this year- for the first time in its history- thanks to a partnership between NCoC and the Center For The Future of Arizona. Among the speakers today: former Huffington Post and New York Times reporter Jose Antonio Vargas, who publicly revealed his undocumented immigration status three months ago. In a state where immigration is a deeply contentious issue, Vargas’s appearance- as well as the rest of the insightful Conference program- showed how NCoC is advancing its role as a dynamic, non-partisan non-profit exploring what shapes today’s citizenry, define the evolving role of the individual in our democracy, and uncover ways to motivate greater participation.
The Golden Report for Tuesday September 20
BREAKING I- US Sharpens Warning to Pakistan- “The Obama administration has sharply warned Pakistan that it must cut ties with a leading Taliban group based in the tribal region along the Afghan border and help eliminate its leaders, according to officials from both countries. In what amounts to an ultimatum, administration officials have indicated that the United States will act unilaterally if Pakistan does not comply.” Senior Administration officials, including Defense Secretary Panetta, CIA Director Petraeus and Secretary of State Clinton, have been delivering hard-line messages to their Pakistani counterparts in recent days, including at the United Nations General Assembly in New York and a 3 1/2 hour meeting that Clinton held on Sunday.
BREAKING II- The Washington Post is reporting exclusively tonight that that the United States is building a series of secret bases across North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula from which to launch drone attacks. Last week in THE EVENING REPORTED we mentioned a series of US drone attacks in the nation of Yemen- one of the nations, and an al-Qaeda stronghold, that the United States has targeted in a renewed series of unmanned predator drone attacks this year. The information was first obtained through the WikiLeaks cables. “One of the installations is being established in Ethiopia, a U.S. ally in the fight against al-Shabab, the Somali militant group that controls much of the country. Another base is in the Seychelles, an archipelago in the Indian Ocean, where a small fleet of “hunter killer” drones resumed operations this month after an experimental mission demonstrated that the unmanned aircraft could effectively patrol Somali territory from there,” the report says.
BREAKING III- President Obama will meet tomorrow evening with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Earlier today, it was announced that the President will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tomorrow morning. The meetings are expected to be high-stakes ahead of a vote on Palestinian recognition [that the US has said it will block]. A bilateral meeting is not expected.
TOP STORY- Former Afghan President Burhanuddin Rabbani was killed in a car bombing in Afghanistan today- hours before President Obama met with current Afghan President Hamid Karzai at the United Nations. After meeting with the President, Karzai cut short his trip to New York in order to return to Afghanistan. The assassination is the latest setback for the US and coalition effort in Afghanistan. Last week, insurgents placed the US & other European embassies in Kabul under siege in a protracted firefight. And last month, 33 Navy SEALS were killed when their helicopter was targeted and brought down by insurgents. In July, President Obama announced his plan for a drawdown of US forces from Afghanistan, beginning next year, and the end of the surge he announced in 2009.
The INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND lowered its projects for economic growth for both the United States and Europe, as the Associated Press Reports, “The fund said it expected the American economy to grow just 1.5 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2012. Its June forecast was 2.5 percent in 2011 and 2.7 percent next year. The organization also lowered its outlook for the 17 European Union countries that use the euro. It predicted 1.6 percent growth this year and 1.1 percent next year, down from its June projections of 2 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively.”
WALL STREET ended the day mixed:
2012: Just a week after announcing her candidacy in the Massachusetts 2012 Senate race, Harvard Professor Elizabeth Warren has a 46%-44% lead according to a new poll out today. Democrats will be targeting Massachusetts as one of their only chances of a Senate pick-up next year.
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN POSSIBLE- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid today suggested that the government may shutdown at the end of last week if the House & Senate can not reach an agreement over disaster funding. Earlier this week, it appeared that a deal was imminent to pass an continuing resolution through November 23rd [the same date the Supercommittee is expected to report back] and avoid a government shutdown. Although the conventional wisdom is that a shutdown will still be avoided, the current stalemate could extend into the weekend, and possibly force the House to stay in session through its planned Rosh Hashanah Recess. The sticking point is over offsetting additional funding for FEMA and both sides appear to be ready to go to the mat. “There is not going to be a government shutdown,” Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said today. “I’m not so sure about that, ” Majority Leader Reid repleid.
WATCH TOMORROW: The Federal Reserve will complete a two-day meeting and announce a decision on interest rate policy. No change is expected.
FINALLY- Glam Media has purchased the social networking company Ning- a platform that allowed individuals and organizations to create their own social networks. Last year, Ning shifted from a free service to a subscription-based model. Terms of the deal were not disclosed but TechCrunch reports it is likely higher than the $35 million that NewsCorp paid to acquire MySpace, but less than the estimated $100 million the company is estimated to have raised.
