The Golden Report

5 DAYS UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
12 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
23 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

CAMPAIGN RESET- from The Washington Post’s Dan Balz in Ames- “Romney prepares aggressive Iowa finish”

“Romney is far from a clear favorite in Iowa: Rep. Ron Paul of Texas continues to show strength in the polls and is banking on a well-regarded organization, and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum is on the rise. But no campaign can match Romney’s for the breadth and depth of its infrastructure, and for the first time the weapons he can deploy are all on display.

For months, Romney’s campaign in Iowa appeared to be moving in slow motion, but it has suddenly taken on a new intensity and some Republican ­strategists say the former Massachusetts governor is building his Iowa momentum at just the right moment.

The volatile political landscape in Iowa underwent its latest jolts in the past 36 hours, scrambling the fortunes of several candidates — most notably Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Paul — and left Romney in his most favorable position in Iowa so far.

But increasingly, the focus of the race is Romney and his potential to win Tuesday. He is drawing energy from boisterous crowds, some of whose participants said in interviews that they had only recently come around to Romney because he seems like the party’s best bet to beat President Obama.

Romney asked Iowa voters Thursday to weigh their choices carefully. “I hope as you look at the people running you can measure their capacity to lead effectively and you can also determine whether they can become our nominee and defeat President Obama,” Romney told 400 supporters in Mason City. “I think I can.”

LEADING DESMOINESREGISTER.COM TONIGHT: ”Almost Bowl Time for ISU, UI”

THEIR OTHER TOP STORY- “Des Moines police arrest 12 protesters at Democratic headquarters”- as #OccupyTheCaucuses come to Iowa

“Twelve protesters have been arrested at the Iowa Democratic headquarters this afternoon, as they protested that Guantanamo remained open and corporate donations to campaigns.

As arrests were going on, other protesters with the Occupy the Caucuses movement chanted, “Hey, hey, ho, ho, Obama close Guantanamo.”

Among those arrested was Frankie Hughes, 14, who earlier today told a Register reporter that she gets good grades.

More than two dozen protesters were at the Democratic headquarters, the fourth Des Moines-area site in two days that protesters have demonstrated at.”

NEXT WEEK’S BIG STORY TONIGHT- “Michele Bachmann’s hard fall”- by POLITICO’s Maggie Haberman

“But as the race wraps up, the woman who was on a trajectory to become the first-ever female winner of the Iowa caucuses is fighting to avoid finishing dead last in the state where she was raised.

To underscore her troubles, Bachmann has spent the last 24 hours trying to spin the fallout from her Iowa state campaign chairman’s defection to the Ron Paul camp — insisting repeatedly that the man in question took a payoff to make the switch. Another longtime staffer, who went public to defend the departed chairman, was gone from the campaign by late Thursday.

All that seems certain, amid a fractured evangelical base and the latest polling data, is that the low-on-cash Bachmann rates as an extreme long shot to win the Iowa caucuses. There’s no comfort back home either: she faces uncertain re-election prospects in her own House seat at the end of the presidential primary season.”

QUOTE OF THE DAY- Mitt Romney “When the president’s characterization of our economy was, ‘It could be worse,’ it reminded me of Marie Antoinette: ‘Let them eat cake,’” Romney said, referring to the infamously dismissive remark toward the poor attributed to the queen.”

ALEX BURNS’ WHO WON THE DAY- RON PAUL

“But it was today when the full impact of state Sen. Kent Sorenson’s defection sank in, triggering a daylong firefight between Bachmann and her onetime supporter, whom she accused of taking a payoff to abandon her. When another Bachmann adviser, Iowa operative Wes Enos, came to Sorenson’s defense, he was booted off the campaign. If Bachmann had any chance of delivering a strong closing message to regain traction in the race, she just lost a day squabbling with a defector.

It wasn’t only Bachmann whose campaign shifted gears Thursday in reaction to Paul’s strength: Jon Huntsman put out a web video attacking him for the first time and Rick Santorum, the Iowa momentum candidate of the moment, went after Paul at multiple campaign stops. Add to that a Union Leader editorial blasting Paul as a “dangerous man” and it’s clear which candidate was at the center of the 2012 universe.”

ATTACK OF THE DAY: Huntsman v. Paul in this web ad in which he asks “Can New Hampshire voters really trust Ron Paul?” 

ROMNEY’S CLOSING ARGUMENT: Believe in America Again. 60-second ad airing in Iowa. 

POLL OF THE DAY: INSIDER ADVANTAGE FINDS A 3-WAY TIE IN IOWA

Romney 17%
Paul 17%
Gingrich 17%
Santorum 13%
Bachmann 12%
Perry 11%
Huntsman 3%

RASMUSSEN FINDS ROMNEY UP BY ONE IN IOWA

Romney 23%
Paul 22%
Santorum 16%
Gingrich 13%
Perry 13%
Bachmann 5%
Huntsman 3%

AND GALLUP TRACKING HAS ROMNEY UP BY FOUR NATIONALLY

Romney 27%
Gingrich 23%
Paul 11%
Perry 8%
Bachmann 5%
Santorum 4%
Huntsman 2%

DAVID YEPSEN IN THE WASHINGTON POST- FIVE MYTHS ABOUT THE IOWA CAUCUSES

1/ Iowa voters don’t represent the United States.
2/ Retail politics is king in Iowa.
3/ To win, you need to appeal to right-wing activists.
4/ The weather will influence the outcome.
5/ Iowa caucus-goers take voting more seriously than people in other states.

READ THE DEAN OF THE HAWKEYE STATE’s full analysis 

WALL STREET- from CNBC- “Stocks End Near Highs, S&P Positive for 2011”

• DOW up 136
• NASDAQ up 24
• S&P 500 up 14

6 DAYS UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
13 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
24 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

TOP STORY- “Romney, Santorum Rising in Iowa”- The Washington Post’s Amy Gardner on the ground in Des Moines-

“There was evidence of growing intensity on both sides of the argument [today] as the candidates crisscrossed the state on a frenzied day of campaigning.

Against the backdrop of persistent questions about his conservative credentials, Romney drew enthusiastic crowds as he rumbled across eastern Iowa in a bus making the case that he is the most electable Republican in the field.

The support lost by Gingrich, whose front-runner status made him the subject of a barrage of negative TV ads, flowed to other candidates, notably Santorum

In one bit of good news for Gingrich on Wednesday, his campaign announced that it had raised $9 million in the past quarter. That is enough money to allow him to respond to some of the negative attacks and continue his campaign into later contests.

After months of being near the bottom of the standings, San­torum has surged, becoming the latest symbol of the Republican electorate’s continuing search for a satisfactory candidate. His new statewide radio ad, “Unite,” promotes his record on abortion and dubs him the “one consistent conservative” in the race.”

GAME CHANGE: With six days to go before voting begins, ROMNEY and SANTORUM are rising,GINGRICH is falling, PAUL is in a fight for second and PERRY and BACHMANN are fighting to stay relevant.

WHAT DROVE THE DAY: A new poll from CNN that found MITT ROMNEY leading the field in Iowa, with RON PAUL second and RICK SANTORUM third. 

Romney 25%

Paul 22%

Santorum 16%

Gingrich 14%

Perry 11%

Bachmann 9%

Huntsman 1%

ALSO FROM IOWA, A PPP Poll that finds RON PAUL with a four point lead over ROMNEY

Paul 24%

Romney 20%

Gingrich 13%

Bachmann 11%

Perry 10%

Santorum 10%

Huntsman 4%

GALLUP NATIONAL TRACKING- Gingrich and Romney are tied

Gingrich 25%

Romney 25%

Paul 11%

Perry 8%

Bachmann 5%

Santorum 4%

Huntsman 1%

Meanwhile, a CNN survey from New Hampshire also released this afternoon shows MITT ROMNEYwith a rock solid 27-point lead OVER RON PAUL in the first primary state.

THE WASHINGTON MACHINE- In what must be a nominee for best campaign ad of the 2012 cycle to date, today the PAUL campaign released a new 30-second attack ad aiming at both Gingrich and Romney. 

LEADING POLITICO TONIGHT, “Mitt Looks to Lock Down Iowa”

“Buoyed by internal polling and a CNN survey released Wednesday afternoon that showed Newt Gingrich falling to fourth place in Iowa, with Ron Paul in second and Rick Santorum climbing to third, Romney told reporters in a deli here that he couldn’t think of a reason why he won’t win the state.

“I can’t imagine, except that there are other good people running, and they’ve got good campaigns,” he said. “I like the fact that my support is building and the momentum is positive, but I can’t tell you where it’s going to end up.”

Romney will spend the next three days in the state intensifying his focus in Iowa at a moment when the state, and possibly an early wrap-up of the nomination, are now tantalizingly in reach.

He’s nearly 30 points ahead in his New Hampshire stronghold, which will vote the week after Iowa.Wins in both will make it increasingly hard for his rivals to continue their campaigns.”

AS NATIONAL JOURNAL’S ETHAN KLAPPER ASKED TODAY...if Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire, how long before the GOP nomination is completely locked up? Developments so far this week seem far removed from discussion, as recently as this past weekend, of a prolonged primary season and even a contested convention.

BREAKING TONIGHT FROM THE BATTLE FOR THIRD IN IOWA…Michele Bachmann’s Iowa campaign manager, Kent Sorenson, has resigned and is now working for RON PAUL.

The latest from POLITICO’s Alexander Burns

“Sorenson made the announcement at a Paul rally with veterans here in Des Moines, telling the crowd: “I believe we’re at a turning point in this campaign.”

Calling the decision to abandon Bachmann a painful one, Sorenson said he felt obligated to join Paul as the “Republican establishment” tries to undermine his campaign.

“I thought it was my duty to come to his aid, just like he came to my aid during my Senate race, which was a very nasty race,” Sorenson said, pledging to go all-out for Paul over the next few days.

To cheers from the crowd, he continued: “We’re going to take Ron Paul all the way to the White House.”

SO WHO WON THE DAY? Alex says it’s Rick Santorum.

“At the start of the month, Rick Santorum needed the following things to happen in order for him to be competitive in Iowa: Newt Gingrich needed to fade. Evangelicals needed to move toward his campaign. Then voters needed to see some tangible sign of momentum, in order to speed up the tortoise-like pace of his Iowa campaign.

The former Pennsylvania senator has now gotten at least a dose of all three ingredients. Gingrich’s campaign has lost ground in every recent Iowa poll. Santorum won the endorsement of a number of high-profile Christian conservatives, including the head of The Family Leader. And today, Santorum placed third in an Iowa poll for the first time, running fairly close behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in a CNN/Time magazine survey.”

DEPARTMENT OF MAKING THINGS WORSE- Newt Gingrich today attempted to explain his March cruise in Greece by saying it gave him a better understanding of the financial crisis that began in Greece and now threatens the European economy

“Ironically, being in Greece during the Greek crisis was very helpful and gave me a much deeper perspective of how hard this was going to be,” he said.

TOP BELTWAY TALKER IN THE MORNING- Helene Cooper in the New York Times- White House Memo: “Bipartisan Agreement: Obama Isn’t Schmoozing”

“Mr. Obama, in general, does not go out of his way to play the glad-handing, ego-stroking presidential role. While he does sometimes offer a ride on Air Force One to a senator or member of Congress, more often than not, he keeps Congress and official Washington at arm’s length, spending his down time with a small — and shrinking — inner circle of aides and old friends.

He typically golfs with a trio of mid- to low-level staff members little known outside the West Wing. He does not spend much time at Camp David, the retreat other presidents have used to woo Washington. His social life runs toward evenings playing Taboo with old friends and their families, Wii video games with his wife and daughters or basketball with Robert Wolf, a banker and the rare new best friend Mr. Obama has acquired since entering politics. He vacations with friends from Chicago on Martha’s Vineyard in August and in Hawaii at Christmas.

This week, for example, Mr. Obama is ensconced in the protective bubble of the Secret Service. With him are his closest outside-the-Beltway-friends, including Eric Whitaker, a Chicago doctor, and two of Mr. Obama’s Hawaii friends from Punahou School: Mike Ramos, a businessman,and Robert Titcomb, a commercial fisherman whom Mr. Obama has stuck by despite his arrest in April on suspicion of soliciting a prostitute. Mr. Obama bolted from Washington last Friday barely an hour after he had signed legislation extending the payroll tax cut after a grinding fight with House Republicans whose result is widely viewed as a big win for him. His relationship with Washington insiders is described by members of both parties as “remote,” “distant” and “perfunctory.”

KEY QUOTE: “This is not a Lincoln bedroom guy,” said James Carville, the Democratic strategist, referring to the guest bedroom at the White House where President Bill Clinton put up supporters and donors. “In fact, he’s the anti-Lincoln bedroom guy. He doesn’t seem to relish, or even like, having politicians around.”

WALL STREET- from CNBC- ”Stocks End Near Lows, S&P Negative for 2011”

• DOW down 140
• NASDAQ down 35
• S&P 500 down 16

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