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2 Days To Go…After Two Debates, NH is Romney’s To Lose…Newt’s PAC goes after Mitt…Huntsman Shining…Giffords Shooting Anniversary…Blue Ivy is Born….And TIM TEBOW…The Evening Report for Sunday January 08, 2012

2 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
13 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
16 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
23 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

THE LATEST FROM NEW HAMPSHIRE- home of two debateswithin 12 hours this weekend and now less than 48 hours from the first in the nation presidential preference primary-

“Romney Under Attack in in Final NH Debate”- The Washington Post- Karen Tumulty and Amy Gardner- in Concord-

“The unusual morning debate was the 15th of the campaign season — and the second in 10 hours — for the candidates. It was sponsored by NBC News, the New Hampshire Union Leader and Facebook.

In the previous night’s forum, which was aired on ABC, Romney’s opponents had landed few blows on the front-runner.

Romney, initially rattled under the Sunday morning barrage, tried to defend himself — but at times seemed to fuel some of the most damaging perceptions about him.

For instance, he reminded viewers of his background of wealth and privilege when he recounted a bit of “good advice” that his father, a wealthy auto executive who later became governor of Michigan, gave him.

“He said, ‘Mitt, never get involved in politics if you have to win an election to pay a mortgage,’ ” Romney recalled, in a remark that could also be interpreted as a suggestion that only the wealthy should run for office.

And even as his opponents were blasting Romney as being insufficiently committed to the conservative fight, he recounted how, when he had run against Kennedy, he had told his business partners: “I’ll be back in six months. Don’t take my chair.” He also boasted that Kennedy “had to take a mortgage out on his house to ultimately defeat me.”

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM: Romney is expected to win, by a significant margin, Tuesday’s primary. Anything short of a 15 to 20 plus point win will be interpreted as a sign of potential weakness. With such strong expectations, there is an opening for the candidates vying for the second tier to make a run and threaten Romney’s standing. A strong second place could be akin to a victory. That said, the race for 2-5 is much more fluid, with Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman- and possibly Newt Gingrich- possible contenders for any slot.

FOR HUNTSMAN, NEW HAMPSHIRE IS DO OR DIE- the Post’s Sandhya Somashekhar and Nia-Malika Henderson report from Concord-

“Huntsman went for broke here, skipping Iowa and spending virtually the entire campaign in a state that seemed more receptive to his moderate views. For months, he has been trundling from town to town in New Hampshire wearing a silver belt buckle and cowboy boots, delivering mild-mannered critiques of the president and occasionally breaking into his fluent Chinese.

In the final sprint, Huntsman has gained some momentum and is aiming to draw votes from Mitt Romney, the front-runner and candidate with whom Huntsman shares the most ground ideologically.

In a debate Sunday, the former Utah governor drew applause when he chided Romney for criticizing his willingness to serve as ambassador to China under President Obama. “This nation is divided . . . because of attitudes like that,” Huntsman said.

He sounded the same theme a few hours later, when about 250 people packed into a Hampstead coffee shop to hear the Republican hopeful’s stump speech. “I put my country first,” he said. “Apparently, Mitt Romney doesn’t believe in putting country first.”

HUNTSMAN HAD HIS STRONGEST PERFORMANCES TO DATE in the New Hampshire debates this weekend, but it remains to be seen if that is enough to translate into enough votes on Tuesday.

FROM THIS MORNING’S NBC NEWS/FACEBOOK DEBATE ON MEET THE PRESS WITH DAVID GREGORY- as reported by the Huffington Post’s Jon Ward

“I was criticized last night by Gov. Romney for putting my country first,” Huntsman said. “He criticized me while he was out raising money, for serving my country in China, yes under a Democrat, like my two sons are doing in the United States Navy. They’re not asking what political affiliation the president is.”

“I will always put my country first and I think that’s important,” Huntsman said.

Romney essentially doubled down on his assertion that serving as an ambassador under a president of the opposite political party is an unworthy undertaking.

“I think we serve our country first by standing for people who believe in conservative principles and doing everything in our power to promote an agenda that does not include President Obama’s agenda,” Romney said. “The decision to go to work for President Obama is one which you took, and I don’t — I respect your decision to do that. I just think it’s most likely that the person who should represent our party running against President Obama is not someone who called him a remarkable leader and went to be his ambassador in China.”

Huntsman shot back immediately: “This nation is divided because of attitudes like that.”

The crowd applauded Huntsman’s retort. He went on to say that “the American people are tired of the partisan division.”

“They have had enough. There is no trust left among the American people and the institutions of power and among the American people and their elected officials,” Huntsman said.

SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY/NEWS 7 NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL finds Romney with a 15-point lead, however, that is down 8 points from an earlier tracking poll last week

  • Romney 35%
  • Paul 20%
  • Huntsman 11%
  • Gingrich 9%
  • Santorum 8%
  • Perry 1%

NEW KOTECKI VIDEO THIS WEEKEND- A MUST- WATCH- Political analyst & video blogger James Kotecki released a new video this weekend- a parody of Taylor Swift’s “You Belong With Me”- “You Should Vote Romney” 

It’s one of Kotecki’s best videos to date. Make sure you check it out! 

POLITICO’S TOP STORY TONIGHT- “New Hampshire Primary: The Land of Make-Believe”- BY MIKE ALLEN AND JONATHAN MARTIN-

“The trappings are here: debates … diner stops … satellite trucks.

But the contest isn’t: Mitt Romney is holding onto his apparently huge lead over rivals in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, and is looking so strong going into South Carolina’s primary two weeks from now that his advisers privately talk up hopes for a 3-0 sweep of the opening contests - and a quick kill to win.

Maybe that’s why things seem so sleepy here compared to years past. The airwaves are surprisingly free of the nastiness that would normally accompany a six-way primary fight. Local officials complain of lower-than-hoped-for spending everywhere. The whole political circus surrounding the first-in-the-nation primary is taking on an increasing air of make-believe, as journalists converge (though in noticeably fewer numbers than in 2008) to cover a contest with a thoroughly predictable victor.”

QUOTE OF THE DAY- “I know what its like to worry about whether you’re going to get fired. There were a couple of times I wondered whether I was gonna get a pink slip.”- Mitt Romney speaking at a campaign event following this morning’s debate.

If not used by his current Republican rivals, quotes like this will be used by the Obama campaign in the forthcoming general election contest to paint Romney as elite and out of touch.

COMING ATTRACTION- from POLITICO’s James Hohmann- reporting tonight that the Ron Paul campaign will not openly contest the Florida Primary on January 31st and instead will focus their attention on caucus states later in the calendar, especially Louisiana, Nevada and Maine. Watch for Paul to use these contests to rake up delegates, and possibly victories.

WINNING OUR FUTURE- The Super PAC aligned with Newt Gingrich- today released a 3-minute trailer for a forthcoming half hour documentary which is mean to expose Mitt Romney as an corporate raider.

Just this preview is stunning, especially when you consider that it is coming from a fellow Republican candidate. It is Swift Boat-like in its approach. This is also something that might be captured by Super PACs aligned with President Obama and the Democratic Party in a general election. 

FIVE THINGS TO WATCH FOR IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY- from National Journal’s Ron Fournier-

“In the final days leading up to the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, look for …

1. … Jon Huntsman, who posted his strongest debate performance to date on Sunday, to gain ground in the polls. Every vote he picks up will come from Mitt Romney.

2. … Romney to unleash his rumored organizational power for huge closing rallies. If not, you’ve got to wonder why. His New Hampshire crowds were lame until he drew close to 1,000 Saturday morning. Sign of things to come?

3. … Rick Santorum to regret taking the gay-marriage bait in New Hampshire. It killed his Iowa momentum because New Hampshire Republicans are more concerned about the economy than polarizing social issues.

4. … Newt Gingrich to get cranky with the media and Ron Paul, who’s now in second place in polls, to flirt with third.

5. … Rick Perry to talk up the tea party in South Carolina and act like New Hampshire doesn’t mean anything, But it does: He seems to be taking the long way home to Texas (and out of the race).”

TODAY IS THE ONE YEAR ANNIVERSARY of the shooting of Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords in Tucson, Arizona.
Tonight, the recovering Congresswoman led a crowd of thousands at a prayer vigil. CNN reports-

“Soon after the event began, the Arizona Democrat took the stage to lead the crowd in the pledge of allegiance. After receiving help from her husband, Mark Kelly, to put her right hand above her heart, Giffords enthusiastically recited the pledge, her voice strong and demeanor positive, before leaving the stage to applause.

Earlier in the day, the congresswoman’s chief of staff, Pia Carusone, admitted that the attack’s anniversary has been “difficult emotionally for everybody.” So, too, did Giffords’ husband, who also made a point to thank those who have supported his wife and others affected.

“It’s been a tough year, but we’re lucky to have so many people standing w/us,” Kelly, a retired Navy captain and astronaut, wrote on his Twitter account.”

AT THE BOX OFFICE THIS WEEKEND

1/ The Devil Inside $34.5 million
2/ Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol $20.5 million
3/ Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows $14 million
4/ The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo  $11.3 million
5/ Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked $9.5 million

BEYONCE AND JAY-Z HAVE A BABY- NAME IT BLUE IVY- From TMZ (who else?)

“Proud dad Jay-Z, real name Shawn Carter, was at the hospital where Beyonce reportedly birthed Ivy by c-section — and shortly after her arrival … J & B’s famous friends started sending out birth announcements on the Internet.

Rihanna tweeted, “Welcome to the world princess Carter! Love Aunty Rih”

Hip-hop mogul Russell Simmons also took to Twitter, saying … “congrats to my good friends Beyonce and Jay-Z.”

Beyonce famously announced her pregnancy on stage at the MTV Video Music Awards back in August.”

AND/BUT THEY’RE CAUSING A RUCUS AT THE NEW YORK HOSPITAL- Also from TMZ:

“A Brooklyn man claims increased security at Lenox Hill hospital because the presence of Beyonce and Jay-Z kept him from seeing his prematurely born twins … this according to a report.

Neil Coulon tells the NY Daily News he has been repeatedly kept out of the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) by the couple’s security. He also claims his relatives were booted out of the waiting room by bodyguards wearing headsets.

He tells the paper, “Three times they stopped me from entering or exiting the NICU and it happened once on Friday — just because they wanted to use the hallway.”

FINALLY- TIM TEBOW DOES IT AGAIN- ESPN- “TEBOW STUNS STEELERS ON FIRST OVERTIME PLAY”

“DENVER — One of the most storied NFL playoff teams ran into a rejuvenated Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos.

Sorry, Pittsburgh Steelers.
The magic is back.

Tebow connected with Demaryius Thomas on an electrifying 80-yard touchdown pass on the first play of overtime and the Broncos defeated the stunned Steelers 29-23 in the AFC wild-card game on Sunday. Wild doesn’t begin to describe it. The play took 11 seconds and was the quickest ending to an overtime in NFL history.

Thomas hauled in a high play-action pass at the Denver 38, stiff-armed Ike Taylor and then outraced Ryan Mundy to the end zone. Tebow, who looked as startled as everyone else, chased down Thomas and knelt on one knee — a gesture known far and wide these days as Tebowing. Then he pounded a fist in triumph and took a victory lap.

“When I saw him scoring, first of all, I just thought, `Thank you, Lord,” Tebow said. “Then, I was running pretty fast, chasing him — Like I can catch up to D.T! Then I just jumped into the stands, first time I’ve done that. That was fun. Then, got on a knee and thanked the Lord again and tried to celebrate with my teammates and the fans.”

Prodded by John Elway to let the ball fly, Tebow acted as if the last three weeks never happened, lifting the Broncos to their first playoff win in six years.”

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Here We Go…Gingrich Says He Will Not Win Iowa…Romney Says He Will…Santorum Under Scrutiny…Paul’s Closing Argument…Iowa Caucus History….New Kotecki Parody Video…The Evening Report for Monday January 02, 2012

1 DAY UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
8 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
19 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
22 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS

QUOTE OF THE DAY (SHOT) “I don’t think I’m going to win,” Newt Gingrich, to ABC News about his chances in tomorrow’s Iowa Caucus

AND/BUT (CHASER) ”We may pull off one of the greatest upsets in the history of the Iowa caucuses,” Newt Gingrich in a tele-town hall later tonight

QUOTE OF THE DAY RUNNER UP: “You got a name? You got a name? You got a name?” Rick Perry to POLITICO’s Mike Allen after being challenged to answer questions about the loyalty of his campaign advisors.

AND FINALLY...RICK SANTORUM SAID THE FOLLOWING TODAY ”I don’t want to make black people’s lives better by giving them somebody else’s money; I want to give them the opportunity to go out and earn the money.”

TODAY ON THE TRAIL- All over the state. From the Washington Post’s team of political reporters group-filing tomorrow’s A1 lead piece:

“Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s agenda included four cities, spread over 269 miles. Former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.) drove a 171-mile circuit around Iowa’s navel. And Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.), the third candidate in the lead pack, began a long trek across northeastern part of the state, making five stops over 391 miles.”

“Over the past few months, Iowa has embraced and then rejected four charismatic front-runners: Rep. Michele Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich and pizza executive Herman Cain.”

KEY PASSAGE: “Now, the state seems set to split its vote among three candidates chosen, instead, for the ideas they represent.

For Romney, those are steadiness and electability.

For Paul, they are small government and personal liberty.

And Santorum’s appeal is based on his socially conservative views on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.”

WHAT WE MISSED: Newt Gingrich is recovering from the flu, which his campaign says was particularly bad on Friday and Saturday last week

THE LATEST FROM SANTORUM- He’s facing very tough questions about his endorsement of Mitt Romney in 2008 and about his position on abortion- and conflicting statements he gave on both during a Meet the Press interview yesterday. As Santorum is surging in the polls, he is now undergoing intensive media scrutiny.

THE LATEST FROM ROMNEY- He won the day. According to POLITICO’s Alexander Burns.

“…There were three good omens for Romney Monday that suggest no matter who wins in Iowa, he’ll be in good shape for the long haul.

The first was a harsh attack on Rick Santorum, mounted by Rick Perry on cable TV and on the campaign trail. The Texan blasted Santorum for having “raised the debt limit more than Obama” and supporting “the bridge to nowhere in Arizona” (he meant Alaska.) Both Perry and his wife, Anita, vowed to press on after Iowa, taking their campaign to South Carolina and also New Hampshire, where Perry isn’t scheduled to appear this week.

Perry wasn’t the only other Republican attacking Santorum. In a second Romney-friendly development, Ron Paul’s campaign got in on the action, with national chairman Jesse Benton accusing Santorum of having a “horrible record on the Second Amendment,” and telling POLITICO Santorum’s record on “so many other issues is so poor he can’t stand up to real criticism.”

And in a third, counterintuitively pro-Romney turn of events, Newt Gingrich vowed to stay in the race past Iowa and train his guns more intently on the GOP front-runner, whose supporters Gingrich blames for tearing down his own campaign.”

AND THEN ROMNEY PREDICTED VICTORY, TELLLING SUPPORTERS TONIGHT

“We’re going to win this thing with all our passion and strength and do everything we can to get this campaign on the right track to go across the nation and to pick up the states and to get the ballots I need and the votes I need to become our nominee. That’s what we’re going to get, with your help.

THE LATEST FROM PAUL- National Journal- “Paul Battles Assumptions He Can’t Win Outside Iowa”

“Paul has sought to defy the conventional wisdom that his campaign will end in Iowa by beginning to air television ads in New Hampshire, which votes Jan. 10, and in South Carolina, which holds its primary on Jan. 21”

Indeed, Paul is on the air in New Hampshire with what his campaign his calling his “closing argument”

INSIDER ADVANTAGE POLL TODAY GIVES ADVANTAGE ROMNEY, but the top three are well within the margin of error

Romney 23%
Paul 22%
Santorum 18%
Gingrich 16%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 2%

PPP POLL TODAY GIVES ADVANTAGE PAUL, but still, we have a three-way race on our hands. 

Paul 20%
Romney 19%
Santorum 18%
Gingrich 14%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 8%
Huntsman 4%

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT

  • Caucus officially starts at 8pm.
  • The first results should start coming in at about 8:30pm.
  • Four years ago, Sen. Obama’s victory in Iowa was declared at 9:25pm ET.
  • In 2008, Republicans saw a record caucus turnout of 118,000+ and many party officials also expect a record or near-record turnout this year.
  • There are more than 1,700 precincts in Iowa that will be holding caucuses tomorrow night.
  • In the modern primary system, only one Republican has won Iowa and gone on to be elected President (George W. Bush in 2000)
  • In 2008, John McCain became the only Republican to finish outside of the Iowa top 3 and still go on to become the nominee
  • Herbert Hoover is the only Iowan to be elected President

2008 REPUBLICAN IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS

Mike Huckabee 34.4%
Mitt Romney 25.2%
Fred Thompson 13.4%
John McCain 13%
Ron Paul 9.9%
Rudy Giuliani 3.4%
Turnout: 118,411

2008 Iowa Presidential Vote: Barack Obama 828,940 (54%) John McCain 682,379 (44%)

THE EVENING REPORT’S CONVENTIONAL WISDOM:

Mitt Romney will become the Republican nominee. He may face a challenge from the Republican right over the next six weeks but it will not be long, drawn out or fatal. A Santorum or Paul win in Iowa ultimately helps Romney. Santorum doesn’t have the organization to compete nationally and he will be crushed in New Hampshire next week. Paul is too crazy to ever win the Republican nomination or the presidency. It will be clear that Romney is the nominee by the State of the Union in three weeks. He may lose some states during the primary season and because of the way the party is awarding delegates, it may not be until March when he officially becomes the nominee, but everyone will know in a matter of days or weeks that 2012 will be Obama v. Romney.

COMING ATTRACTION: GOP BATTLE PLAN AGAINST OBAMA: USE HIS OWN WORDS AGAINST HIM- The Washington Post Monday top story-

“GOP officials in Washington are quietly and methodically finishing what operatives are calling “the book” — 500 pages of Obama quotes and video links that will form the backbone of the party’s attack strategy against the president leading up to Election Day 2012.

The document, portions of which were reviewed by The Washington Post, lays out how GOP officials plan to use Obama’s words and voice as they build an argument for his defeat: that he made specific promises and entered office with lofty expectations and has failed to deliver on both.

Republican officials say they will leverage the party’s newly catalogued video library containing every publicly available utterance from Obama since his 2008 campaign. Television and Internet ads will juxtapose specific Obama promises of job gains, homeowner assistance, help for people in poverty, lower health insurance premiums and stricter White House ethics standards against government data and news clippings that paint a different reality.

The decision by GOP officials to finalize a strategy at this stage underscores the view, in both parties, that the general-election campaign has begun — even if an official Republican nominee has not been selected.

The new GOP playbook is designed to take one of Obama’s great assets — the power of his oratory — and turn it into a liability. It details hundreds of potential targets, partially a result of a president who Republican strategists say is unusually prone to making detailed promises.”

FINALLY- Take a few minutes to think about how far we’ve come over the last six months leading up to tomorrow’s caucus- which itself is only the start of the Republican primary season. Through 13 debates, we’ve watched candidate after candidate rise and fall in public opinion polling. The title frontrunner has been awarded to Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney and, in the past week, we’ve seen the Santorum Surge. Tomorrow, Iowans caucus. And then, it’s on to New Hampshire…and South Carolina…and Florida…and Nevada…and…

WATCH- Political analyst & satirist James Kotecki today released a new video: The Iowa Surge Song (Old MacDonald Parody).

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The Iowa Surge Song- by political analyst & satirist James Kotecki. It’s so good. 

The Evening Report for Monday December 12

22 DAYS UNTIL IOWA

TOP STORY: NEARING A DEAL- Reports from Capitol Hill that Congressional appropriators have reached a deal- barring technical corrections- on a $1+ trillion spending measure to fund the federal government into next fiscal year, a key item on Congress’ to-do list before the holiday recess.

From The Hill:

“Congress must approve the omnibus or a temporary spending measure by the end of the day Friday to prevent a government shutdown.

Though they are still working out details, negotiators have been able to agree on a full nine-bill package that they plan to file with the House Rules Committee on Tuesday.

The package will include the Labor-Health and Interior-Environment bills, despite worries late last week that the two parties would be unable to resolve differences over those two spending packages. Aides said compromises had been worked out on controversial environmental, union and healthcare riders.

Another key compromise on the overall omnibus is an agreement to put disaster aid in a separate bill.

The August debt-ceiling deal set a top-line spending limit in 2012 of $1.043 trillion for all 12 appropriations bills, but also permits additional disaster spending of up to $11.3 billion.

 “

The bill is expected to be filed in the House of Representatives tomorrow.

TO-DO LIST: Congress must act on the following items before recessing for the year:

  • Payroll tax extension
  • Unemployment insurance extension
  • Medicare “doc fix” and other tax provisions due to expire on 12/31

ENDING A WAR: President Obama met today with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in Washington, three weeks before the last remaining United States troops are scheduled to leave that country, ending the 7-year long US war in Iraq.

From National Journal:

“This is a historic moment,” Obama said Monday during a visit by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. “A war is ending. A new day is upon us and let us never forget those who gave us this chance.”

Speaking to reporters alongside Maliki, Obama said the Iraqi premier’s decisions regarding the region were motivated by his sense of nationalism rather than any loyalty to his Shiite neighbor, Iran.

“Prime Minister Maliki has been explicit here in the United States, he’s been explicit back in Iraq that his interest is in maintaining Iraqi sovereignty and preventing meddling by anybody inside of Iraq, and I believe him,” Obama said. “He has shown himself to make very tough decisions in the interest of Iraqi nationalism, even if they cause problems with his neighbor.”

SOUNDBITE: In response to a reporter’s question on whether the invasion of Iraq was a “dumb war” “the President said “History will judge the original decision to go into Iraq.”

RNC ATTACKS OBAMA ON 60 MINUTES- Last night, the President said it was his job to “put forward a vision for the country that benefits the vast majority of Americans.” Today, the RNC is up with a new ad that says “America needs jobs, not a vision” Expect this to be a continued line of attack next year

THE LONG ROAD: In an interview today with POLITICO’s Mike Allen in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney suggested that the primary season, that he had once wanted to finish swiftly with victories in the early states, could last well into the spring.

“You see how dramatically the numbers have moved and how quickly they have over the last year?” he replied Monday during a video interview at a grubby French-Canadian diner, Chez Vachon, a storied campaign stop that has hosted George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

“It’s a very fluid electorate. I think I’ll get the nomination. I can’t predict when. … I’ve got — what? — five or six more months to go to make that a reality.”

LINCOLN-DOUGLAS MEET GINGRICH-HUNTSMAN today in New Hampshire during a meeting between the candidates at opposite ends of national public opinion polling.

From the AP’s Steve Peoples:

“There were no time limits, formal rules or reporters asking questions.

And if you ask Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman, they would say there were no clear winners or losers Monday night in what was billed as a “Lincoln-Douglas” presidential debate modeled after the 1858 meetings of Illinois Senate candidates Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas.

In fact, after a 90-minute free-flowing discussion about foreign policy and national security, it was difficult to discern a single area where the Republican presidential contenders disagreed. There were no rhetorical bombs thrown. And what criticism surfaced was aimed at President Barack Obama and America’s threats abroad.

Yet Gingrich was absolutely thrilled.

“This is what we should have a lot more of, because this is substantive,” said Gingrich, the former House speaker. “This is not a Hollywood game. This is not a reality show. This is reality.”

In some ways, the format was a dream come true for Gingrich, a self-proclaimed historian and former college professor, whose intellect and willingness to challenge his rivals has aided a sudden rise in the polls. Having lost most of his campaign cash and staffers over the summer, he bet his presidential ambitions almost exclusively on national media interviews and debates.”

WALL STREET: “An aggressive two-week rally came to a quiet thud Monday on Wall Street, in a light-volume selloff triggered by the familiar fears that Europe was far from solving its sovereign debt crisis,” CNBC reports

  • DOW down 163
  • NASDAQ down 35
  • S&P 500 down 19

“STRONG” PARODIES: Last week, we brought you Rick Perry’s campaign ad “Strong” in which he says “You don’t need to be in the pew every Sunday to know there’s something wrong in this country when gays can serve openly in the military but our kids can’t openly celebrate Christmas or pray in school.”

It now has more dislikes on YouTube than Rebecca Black’s “Friday” and has drawn rebukes and criticism despite being widely viewed and discussed.

The AP ran a story today on the several video parodies that have been posted as replies to Perry’s ad.

“First, there’s the jacket. Many videos have noted that it’s the same type worn by actor Heath Ledger in the 2005 movie “Brokeback Mountain,” which centers on a long love affair between two cowboys.

Many of the video parodies feature actors wearing the shirt and jacket combo, including video satirist Andy Cobb.

“I’m not ashamed to admit that I’m an atheist,” Cobb says, “but you know there’s something wrong with this country when politicians think it’s OK to hate on gays and nonbelievers in ads.”

Another video shows a brown-jacketed rabbi, Jason Miller.

“I’m not ashamed to admit I’m a Jew,” Miller says. “There’s something wrong in our country when gays can serve openly in the military but still can’t marry each other in most U.S. states.”

FOR PROFESSIONAL COMMENT: Stephen Farnsworth, an associate professor of communications at George Mason University, said the ad may well help Perry in Iowa, where polls are starting to show him inch up a bit. But Farnsworth said the ad’s message — and the parodies it has spawned — won’t help in the long run, particularly when it comes to connecting with moderate and swing voters.

“The worst thing to be in American politics is a joke,” Farnsworth said.

The Huffington Post is running a contest where you can vote for your favorite parody video, including one that has nearly 100,00 views by THE EVENING REPORT’s resident video blogger JAMES KOTECKI.

FINALLY: RETHINKING THE INK- The Washington Post-

“If tattoos are the marks of an era — declarations of love, of loss, of triumph, of youthful exuberance or youthful foolishness — then tattoo removals are about regret, confessions that those landmarks are in the past. They’re about the realization that whatever you believed in with such force that you wanted it eternally branded on your skin is now foreign to you.

According to the Pew Research Center, more than 40 percent of Americans between the ages of 26 and 40 have at least one tattoo. Getting a tattoo, once the province of sailors rather than suburbanites, is so mainstream that tats are inked at the mall and seen on everyone from Middle American mothers to H Street hipsters to Hollywood starlets.

Perhaps not surprisingly, a parallel trend is emerging: tattoo removal, with dozens of businesses and training schools opening across the country.”

The Evening Report for Sunday December 04, 2011

30 DAYS UNTIL IOWA

TOP STORY: Early returns are in from the Russian parliamentary election and with 75% of the vote being reported, Vladimir Putin’s party, United Russia, has less support now than they reported in the last election in 2007. Three months from now, Putin is expected to run, and was widely expected to win, Russia’ presidential election.

From the BBC:

“Opposition parties have complained of violations of election laws.

Russia’s only independent monitoring group, Golos, says it has logged 5,300 complaints alleging violations of election laws.

The BBC’s Steve Rosenberg, in Moscow, says if confirmed, the result will be a significant embarrassment to Mr Putin, three months before he is scheduled to run again for the Russian presidency.

He says opposition parties are alleging widespread fraud, including the stuffing of ballot boxes and voters being offered money.

Mr Putin served as president from 2000 to 2008 but was prohibited by the constitution from running for a third consecutive term.”

THE BIG STORY THIS WEEK: Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is in Europe as an important week begins to negotiate an endgame to the European debt crisis. The next summit of European leaders is scheduled for Friday.

CNBC reports:

“Expectations are rising that Friday’s summit of 27 EU leaders will yield a breakthrough. An agreement on tighter integration of the 17 countries that use the single currency — especially on budget matters — would be seen as a crucial first step. That could trigger further emergency aid from the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund or some combination, analysts say.

The coming days “will decide if the euro will survive or not,” Emma Marcegaglia, the head of Italy’s industrial lobby, Confindustria, said Sunday.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, European Central Bank Chief Draghi, and even U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will star in a 5-day financial drama leading up to the summit.

If the summit is a failure, Sarkozy warned last week, “the world will not wait for Europe.”

Sarkozy and Merkel meet in Paris on Monday to unveil a proposal for closer political and economic ties between eurozone countries. While the leaders differ on some of the details, their cooperation has been so tight they have come to be known by a single name — “Merkozy.

The two agree overall on the need for tougher rules that would prevent governments from spending or borrowing too much — and on certain penalties for persistent violators.”

US PARK POLICE arrested 31 demonstrators in Washington today, the first mass arrests of the Occupy DC movement that has set up camp at McPherson Square downtown for the past two months.

This morning, protestors erected a wooden structure, some 30 feet tall, that they claimed would serve as a house to provide warmth during the coming winter. Park Police ordered the structure removed because it lacked the proper permit. Shortly after noon when the protestors did not comply with the order, police sealed off the area and proceeded to arrest protestors within and crossing a police line.

As night fell, police brought in a cherry picker, and inflated a safety net-like apparatus used to catch victims jumping from burning buildings to arrest protestors that remained on the roof of the structure. After the area was cleared, police dismantled the structure but reports indicate there are no plans to remove the larger Occupy came in DC tonight. Today marks the first time that demonstrators have clashed with the Park Police.

CAMPAIGN 2012:

Businessman HERMAN CAIN dropped out of the Republican presidential race on Saturday, citing stress to himself and his family after recent allegations of sexual harassment and a 13-year affair.

In his exit speech, Cain said that he would, in short order, offer an endorsement. Today, POLITICO’s Mike Allen leads reporting suggesting that NEWT GINGRICH is likely to receive that endorsement, which would buoy the man now seen as the principal opponent to Mitt Romney.

JAMES KOTECKI VIDEO: Cain rather curiously decided to quote from the Pokemon in his speech leaving the presidential race on Saturday. Who else might Cain have quoted?

NEW DES MOINES REGISTER POLL released Saturday night, conducted while Cain remained a candidate in the race, offers an important snapshot in to the state of the caucus at the one mark to go marker.

  • GINGRICH 25%
  • PAUL 18%
  • ROMNEY 16%
  • BACHMANN 8%
  • CAIN 8%
  • PERRY 6%
  • SANTORUM 6%
  • HUNTSMAN 2%
  • NOT SURE 11%

GINGRICH leads ROMNEY by 6.2% according to the latest Real Clear Politics average of all recent national polls.

NBC NEWS and MARIST have new polls out today in the early primary states. These polls were also conducted before Cain exited the race.

IOWA

  • GINGRICH 26%
  • ROMNEY 18%
  • PAUL 17%
  • CAIN 9%
  • PERRY 9%
  • BACHMANN 5%
  • SANTORUM 5%
  • HUNTSMAN 2%

NEW HAMPSHIRE

  • ROMNEY 39%
  • GINGRICH 23%
  • PAUL 16%
  • HUNTSMAN 9%
  • PERRY 3%
  • BACHMANN 3%
  • CAIN 2%
  • SANTORUM 1%

For their part, the OBAMA CAMPAIGN is continuing to focus their attention on Mitt Romney, the man who the campaign believes still will become the Republican nominee to face President Obama next year.

In Sunday morning talk shows today, two campaign surrogates- Robert Gibbs and David Axelrod- purposely didn’t take the bait from moderators to offer the same attacks against Gingrich that they continue to levy against Romney.

For a sampling, here’s Axelrod on Meet The Press this morning with David Gregory:

This is about, this is about public character.  This is about public character.  And, by the way, it’s not just Democrats, but most of the Republicans who are making the same case, David.  Jon Huntsman’s running ads, or his supporters are in New Hampshire on that right now.

Last night Governor Romney said that the, the EPA was the president’s tool to crush the private enterprise system.  When he was governor of Massachusetts he boasted that he had the toughest rules against CO2 emissions from plants, that he had the toughest rules when it comes to climate change and greenhouse gas emissions. 

And now it’s like that never happened.  Now he’s, now he’s on the other side of it. THIS IS THE REASON I SUPPOSE WHY HE AND HIS AIDES ABSCONDED WITH THE HARD DRIVES FROM THEIR COMPUTERS WHEN THEY LEFT THE GOVERNOR’S OFFICE BECAUSE THEY THINK THEY CAN JUST ERASE THE PAST, that what you said before doesn’t matter now.  And so, yes, when it comes to his public character, he, he doesn’t have a core

It’s a big quote that offers an important snapshot in the Obama Campaign’s strategy.

TIGER WOODS ended a two-year streak without a competitive golf match win today, placing first in the Chevron World Challenge in Thousand Oaks, California.

From ESPN:

“He swept his arm across the air, yelled through the din of the gallery and slammed his fist in a celebration that was a long time coming.

Relief? Satisfaction? Vindication?

Woods wasn’t sure, and he didn’t much care.

“It just feels awesome whatever it is,” he said.

Trailing by one shot with two holes to play, Woods came up with two clutch putts. He holed a 15-footer for birdie on the par-3 17th to pull into a tie with Johnson, then hit a 9-iron from 158 yards that landed on the ridge behind the hole and rolled down to 6 feet.”

AT THE BOX OFFICE THIS WEEKEND

1/ Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn: $16.9 million
2/ The Muppets $11.2 million
3/ Hugo $7.6 million

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: After 3, it’s Saints 24, Lions 10, in New Orleans tonight.

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The Evening Report for Monday November 28, 2011

EXCLUSIVE: NEW KOTECKI VIDEO…WOMAN ALLEGES CAIN HAD AFFAIR WITH HER FOR 13 YEARSMITT V MITT…BARNEY FRANK RETIRES…WALL STREET RISES…ANNE HATHAWAY ENGAGED

36 DAYS UNTIL IOWA

TOP STORY: New sexual allegations against Herman Cain, the one-time GOP front-runner, today. FOX 5 Atlanta reports that a woman, Ginger White, alleges that Cain had an affair with her for 13 years. In what may be a first for politics in the digital media age, Cain preempted the allegations in an interview with CNN’s Wolf Blitzer this afternoon, denying them before they had even been made public.

CAIN, “I did not have an affair, and until I see and hear exactly what’s going to be, what accusations are going to be made, let’s move on. Here we go again. I didn’t do anything wrong.”

WHITE ON CAIN, “It was fun. It was something that took me away from my humdrum life at the time. And it was exciting.”

And then there is Herman Cain’s lawyer, Lin Wood who, through written statement, drew a distinction between an extra-material affair and Cain’s previous scandal, allegations of sexual harassment.

WOOD, “If any candidate wants to publicly discuss his private sex life, that is his or her life. But I don’t believe that there’s an obligation on the part of any political candidate to do so.”

AN EVENING REPORT EXCLUSIVE: Videoblogger JAMES KOTECKI has a new satirical video on Herman Cain’s Private Affair. You’re seeing it first here tonight.

BEFORE THE CAIN ALLEGATIONS BROKE, the top political story of the day was the Democratic National Committee releasing the sharpest political video yet this cycle, launching a new web site at www.mittvmitt.com and a 4-minute web video that is meant as an “opening trailer” into an attack on Mitt Romney’s character and flip-flop positions- on abortion, assault weapons, TARP, the auto bailout, economic stimulus, health care and immigration. A 30-second television ad tees it up:

ANALYSIS: This shows the DNC and the Obama Campaign are expecting that Romney will eventually be the Republican nominee and are starting their general election attacks against him now. They are also trying to encourage the type of Republican attacks against Romney that, so far, the field has been reluctant to engage in.

GALLUP and RASMUSSEN peg President Obama’s job approval rating at 44% in new polls released today, the same figure as his average for the last six months. Gallup has disapproval at 47%, Rasmussen at 54%.

STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE BARNEY FRANK

“I will not be a candidate for reelection to the House of Representatives in 2012.”

“Our politics has evolved in a way that makes it harder to get anything done at the federal level. I believe that I have been effective as a Member of Congress working inside the process to influence public policy in the ways that I think are important. But I now believe that there is more to be done trying to change things from outside than by working within”

Due to redistricting, the lines of Frank’s district are to be re-drawn to add approximately 325,000 new constituents, a factor that he said impacted his decision. Frank is the 9th Democrat to announce his retirement from the House in 2012.

WALL STREET:

  • DOW up 291
  • NASDAQ up 86
  • S&P 500 up 34

BREAKING TONIGHT: Facebook plans a $10 billion IPO in 2012, the Wall Street Journal was first to report. From Reuters:

“Facebook’s Chief Financial Officer, David Ebersman, had discussed a public float with Silicon Valley bankers but founder and Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg had not decided on any terms and his plans could change, the Journal said.

The social network, which now claims more than 800 million members after seven years of explosive growth, has not selected bankers to manage what would be a very closely watched IPO. But it had drafted an internal prospectus and was ready at any moment to pull the IPO trigger, the Journal cited people familiar with the matter as saying.

A formal S-1 filing could come before the end of the year, though nothing was decided, the newspaper added.

A Facebook representative declined to comment.”

HUFFINGTON POST: Actress Anne Hathaway is engaged to marry her longtime boyfriend, Adam Shulman…The pair, who have been dating for three years, confirmed the news through her representative, Stephen Huvane. In October, it was reported that Hathaway, 29, had moved into Shulman’s apartment in Brooklyn. Hathaway previously dated Raffaello Follieri; the relationship ended after the Italian jewelry designer pled guilty to money laundering, conspiracy and wire fraud.”

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: With 4 minutes left in the 3rd, it’s Saints 28, Giants 10.

The Evening Report for Thursday November 10, 2011

TOP STORY: Damage Control: day one. The fallout continues from Rick Perry’s embarassing performance in last night’s Republican presidential candidates debate. Here’s the latest from The Washington Post,

“We’ve got a debater in chief right now that’s not working out so well,” said the Texas governor [today], taking a shot at President Obama’s public-speaking talents. “We’ve got to focus on the substance of what’s killing America, and it’s Washington, D.C., spending too much money and creating too much debt.”

But even as the Perry rehabilitation tour went into full swing, Republicans inside and outside his campaign were skeptical of his prospects for survival.

“We’re in one of those stop-the-fights, throw-in-the-white-towel moments,” said Alex Castellanos, a prominent Republican consultant who supported Mitt Romney in the 2008 presidential race but is not affiliated with any of the 2012 campaigns. “It was just brutal. It turns out that being president is a very hard job. I think Perry’s taken himself out of consideration now.”

TONIGHT- Perry is on the Late Show with David Letterman, after beginning the day appearing remotely on all of the morning news shows. Last night, for the first time, Perry went into the spin room after the debate to talk with reporters.

ANALYSIS: As campaign 2012 develops a new story line, it’s important to remember which stories the campaign is no longer focused on (or at least the media covering the campaign isn’t): 1/ the Herman Cain sexual harassment allegations and 2/ anything about Mitt Romney. Perry’s gaffe transforms the race- at least for this week, at least for this moment, by taking the pressure off of Cain, and keeping public scrutiny away from Mitt Romney. We’re now within 60 days of Iowa, so the weekly story lines do matter. Now is the time when public perceptions are being formed about the candidates- and although its always possible to change that conventional wisdom, it becomes increasingly more difficult.

THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION today delayed a decision on the controversial Keystone XL energy pipeline which would run across a large swath of the center of the United States and has become a lightning rod among environmental activists, until after the 2012 presidential election, as the New York Times reports:

“The move is the latest in a series of administration decisions pushing back thorny environmental matters beyond next November’s presidential election to try to avoid the heat from opposing interests — business lobbies or environmental and health advocates — and to find a political middle ground. Mr. Obama delayed a review of the nation’s smog standard until 2013, pushed back offshore oil lease sales in the Arctic until at least 2015 and blocked new regulations for coal ash from power plants.”

“I support the State Department’s announcement today regarding the need to seek additional information about the Keystone XL pipeline proposal,” the president said in a statement. “Because this permit decision could affect the health and safety of the American people as well as the environment, and because a number of concerns have been raised through a public process, we should take the time to ensure that all questions are properly addressed and all the potential impacts are properly understood.”

WALL STREET

  • Dow up 113
  • NASDAQ up 4
  • S&P 500 up 11

MATERIAL FOR JAMES’ DAILY VIDEO SERIES: Another “Oops” moment occurred today..when S&P announced that it was downgrading France’s credit rating..and then announced that it had made a mistake. Just a minor detail. Here’s how the events played out, from the AP.

“In a statement, S&P says a technical error caused the automatic dissemination of a message to some subscribers of its Global Credit Portal “suggesting that France’s credit rating had been changed.”

S&P says that is not the case and France’s ratings remain at “AAA,” the highest investment-grade rating, with a “Stable” outlook.

The release was sent to some S&P Ratings subscribers under the headline, “DOWNGRADE,” and a link to the France ratings. Anyone who would have clicked on the link would have seen that France’s rating was unchanged, said S&P spokesman Martin Winn in London.”

FINALLY…Billy Crystal will host next year’s Oscars, one day after Eddie Murphy announced that he was bowing out as host of the annual awards ceremony.

From the Huffington Post, “The comedy veteran and eight time Oscar host tweeted on Thursday afternoon that he would be hosting the Oscars, though he added a sarcastic aside: “Am doing the Oscars so the young woman in the pharmacy will stop asking my name when I pick up my prescriptions. Looking forward to the show.”

THE EVENING REPORT comes to you tonight from New York City, where we’re attending the 2011 Millennial Leadership Summit sponsored by Mobilize.org, an all-partisan non-profit organization built around the idea of building Democracy 2.0.

@JamesKotecki (follow him on Twitter) is hilariously brilliant! Check out his music video, released this week, that I have been humming nearly nonstop since I first heard it. And as I had to remind someone this week, it is a parody. 

(Source: youtube.com)