The Golden Report

6 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
17 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
20 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
27 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

It was a busy news day. Here’s a look at what’s happened today:

• Mitt Romney officially won the Iowa Caucus by eight votes over Rick Santorum.
• Michele Bachmann said she was suspending her presidential campaign.
• Rick Perry returned to Texas, and then announced that he would be staying in the race, participating in this weekend’s debates and competing in the South Carolina Primary later this month.
• 2008 Republican Nominee John McCain endorsed Mitt Romney in New Hampshire.
• President Obama appointed Richard Cordray to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, using a controversial recess appointment. He used the same authority to nominate three members of the National Labor Relations Board.

THE MAN OF THE DAY: RICK SANTORUM, who sent a shock wave through the Republican Party by earning 25% of last night’s Iowa Caucus vote. Today, Santorum moved on to New Hampshire as he faces the seemingly daunting task of building a campaign organization that is able to go toe-to-toe with Mitt Romney.

HE’S RAISED A MILLION DOLLARS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS: reports Jonathan Martin “their server briefly went down under the crush last night, said almost all of the cash came online.”

AND/BUT MITT ROMNEY WON THE DAY, says Maggie Habberman, “To be sure, Rick Santorum has had a good day - he’s still being treated as the clearest anti-Romney candidate, and he got helpful ink from the Wall Street Journal editorial page and columnist George Will. But Romney’s day was better.”

AND JMART SAYS ITS GOING TO BE HARD TO STOP ROMNEY NOW:

“Conservatives got a stark reminder Wednesday about just how difficult it will be to block his path to the nomination. Romney’s conservative opposition remains split and unable to unify behind a single alternative — all the more so with Rick Perry deciding to stay in the race Wednesday after hinting he might step aside. A high-profile Christian conservative, Gary Bauer, said he had no intention of joining a campaign to take down Romney.

And even second-place Iowa finisher Rick Santorum’s momentum hardly seemed enough to slow Romney in New Hampshire, where the former Massachusetts governor is sitting on a double-digit lead with five days until the primary.
Because of the divided nature of the opposition and Romney’s organizational and financial advantages, GOP elites made the case Wednesday that there was no clear way he could be stopped.”

A ‘VICTORY LAP’ IS EXACTLY HOW THE NEW YORK TIMES DESCRIBES ROMNEY’S DAY:

“After a round of morning television show appearances and a ride in a Boeing 737 packed with reporters, Mr. Romney headed for a high school gymnasium where he accepted the endorsement of a onetime bitter rival, Senator John McCain. He also showed off his network of support in the state, where the nation’s first primary takes place Tuesday, appearing with former Gov. John H. Sununu and Senator Kelly Ayotte, an indication of how the Republican establishment was rallying to his side.

“Do we think we can get more than an eight-vote margin here in New Hampshire?” he asked the crowd, a joking reference to his remarkably slim margin of victory in Iowa.

While Mr. Romney dominated the day-after-Iowa news coverage with his victory lap here, Mr. Santorum and his staff were slowly making the 1,400-mile journey from Des Moines in a King Air propeller plane that did not deliver them here until suppertime, too late to make a star turn on the evening news. He made a nighttime turn on Fox News and CNN and landed in time for a rally that drew hundreds.”

BUT, ABOUT THAT MCCAIN ENDORSEMENT- the Huffington Post’s Jon Ward thought the event was lackluster, much like Romney’s speech early this morning in Iowa:

“Mitt Romney’s first event here in the state where he enjoys a huge home-field advantage offered a rude awakening.

Three of the first four questioners were openly hostile to Romney, although one of them was an Occupy Manchester activist. And even the endorsement and appearance of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) failed to arouse much of a reaction from the Granite Staters in attendance.”

WHY POLITICAL ADVANCE IS SO IMPORTANT: ”And much of the blame probably lay with campaign planners, who scheduled Romney for an event at a time when most politically active people are working and put him in front of an audience made up in part of apathetic high school students. They also rushed McCain out onto the big stage so he could dominate the cable news during the afternoon, rather than waiting for an early-evening town hall in Peterborough, one of McCain’s favorite settings in the state.”

TONIGHT McCain and Romney made a joint appearance on Hannity.

SO WHAT’S NEXT?

Saturday- 14th Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, St. Anslem College, 9pm/ABC News
Sunday- Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, Mancheser, NH 9am/NBC News
Tuesday- New Hampshire Primary
Monday January 16th- Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, Myrtle Beach, SC
Thursday January 19th- 17th Republican Presidential Candidates Debate, Charleston, SC
Saturday January 21st- South Carolina Primary

SANTORUM MISSES DEADLINE FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA APRIL 3RD PRIMARY- “Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry and Mitt Romney all filed the required information by today’s 5 p.m. deadline and will appear on the ballot for DC’s April 3 primary. Michele Bachmann, who dropped her presidential bid earlier today, also did not file”

JON HUNTSMAN ON AIR IN NEW HAMPSHIRE: ”We’re getting screwed as Americans” his new ad - also his first- says.

PRESIDENT OBAMA went to Ohio today, his first public appearance of 2012 in a key battleground state. And the White House began the year fighting, choosing to usurp Senatorial custom and interpret the President’s constitutional authority to issue recess appointments broadly, nominating Richard Cordray as the first director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

IN THIS MOVE, National Journal’s Stacy Kaper and Dan Friedman find clues to the President’s re-election strategy

“In one bold stroke, Obama broke what Democrats called an unprecedented GOP attempt to hold up installation of any CFPB chief unless Democrats agreed to change the agency’s structure. Republicans filibustered Cordray’s nomination last month. 

Obama’s move marks a new step in a procedural arms race in which both parties, while professing outrage, counter each other’s obstruction with new procedural tactics. Legally, Cordray has no better claim to a recess appointment than any other pending nominee. But because Republicans blocked Cordray on the grounds that they oppose the bureau rather than think him unqualified, Democrats feel they have a stronger political case for installing him.

Lawyers of all stripes agree that legal challenges are inevitable, and that, like the health care law, they could ultimately wind up before the Supreme Court.”

LOOK FOR AN INCREASINGLY COMBATIVE WHITE HOUSE to continue its “We Can’t Wait” strategy in the weeks ahead, portraying President Obama as a “warrior for the Middle Class”- a likely theme for this year’s State of the Union Address

WALL STREET- from CNBC- “The Dow and S&P clawed back into positive territory at the close Wednesday, adding to the sharp rally from the previous session, but gains were limited over renewed fears over the euro zone debt crisis.”

• DOW up 21
• NASDAQ down 0.36
• S&P 500 up 0.24

FINALLY… The Iowa Caucus results didn’t come in until very early this morning and cable news anchors stayed on the air  through it all. CNN’s coverage after 1am provided a lot of great bloopers

Here’s Erin Burnett flicking a magic wall, Anderson Cooper saying “have we all just given up here?” and “I don’t know what the hell a social media screen is” and Wolf Blitzer looking anxious in “Late Night Takes over CNN Anchors“ 

Here’s Piers Morgan clearly interrupting Anderson Cooper when he was about to follow-up with a question 

AND THE BEST VIDEO OF THE NIGHT Here’s Wolf Blitzer and John King ON THE PHONE with Clinton County Election Officials Edith & Carolyn, including “what do you mean the numbers don’t match?” 

WELCOME to our new subscribers who came via a link in this morning’s COLLEGE DAYBREAK. Welcome to the Evening Report, we’re glad to have you! 

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7 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
18 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
21 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS

CAUCUS EDITION

BREAKING: Texas Govenror Rick Perry has just said he will reassess his presidential campaign and return to Texas- canceling a full line up of events planned in South Carolina tomorrow. 

THE LATEST- ROMNEY AND SANTORUM IN VIRTUAL TIE FOR IOWA- The Washington Post’s Karen Tumulty

“Three sharply different Republican candidates were on course to split the bulk of votes in Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses as a chaotic campaign season culminated with the first real ballots cast.

With 96 percent of precincts reporting at 11:40 p.m. Eastern, former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.) was in a virtual tie with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, leading him by just 79 votes. Both of them hovered around 24.6 percent of the total, with Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) close behind at 21 points. It seemed possible that this year’s winner — whoever it turns out to be — would finish with the lowest percentage total of any GOP winner in Iowa’s modern history, sinking below Bob Dole’s 26 percent in 1996.”

THE ORDER LEAVING IOWA

FIRST/SECOND: SANTORUM/ROMNEY- separated by TENS of votes
THIRD: PAUL
FOURTH: GINGRICH
FIFTH : PERRY
SIXTH: BACHMANN

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

One week from tonight, we’ll be reporting on the New Hampshire Primary. Between now and then, there are two debates- on Saturday night and Sunday morning on Meet The Press. the first question will be if all of the second tier candidates (Gingrich, Perry and Bachmann) go on. The next question will be which of the candidates decide to compete in New Hampshire, where Romney has held a commanding lead for months, and which go on to South Carolina, which holds its primary two weeks from this coming Saturday.

Four weeks from tonight, Florida will hold its primary, the fourth early state of the season. Today, the Romney campaign announced that they have begun airing television ads in the Sunshine State, the first major campaign to do so. As we reported last night, Romney is already on the air in South Carolina, with a $260,000 ad buy.

THIS HAPPENED TONIGHT

SHOT- @RonPaul: @jonhuntsman we found your one Iowa voter, he’s in Linn precinct 5 you might want to call him and say thanks

CHASER- Huntsman spokesperson- “We find it odd that Congressman Paul would attack Gov. Huntsman in such a childish fashion. Just the latest in a long line of odd statements from him.”

THE BATTLE FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE- Fourth place finisher Newt Gingrich is going to take the gloves off. This full page ad is running tomorrow in the New Hampshire Union Leaderhttp://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/01/newt-to-make-sidebyside-comparison-with-mitt-in-the-109494.html. This confirms earlier reporting by NBC’s Andrea Mitchell tonight.

UPDATE: And in his speech to supporters in Iowa tonight, Gingrich seemed angry…no where close to dropping out..and ready to serve the role of attack dog against Romney in the New Hampshire debates and then in South Carolina…which will allow Santorum the time he needs to build an organization 

AWKWARD MOMENT: Rick Santorum’s nephew endorsed Ron Paul today. From the Des Moines Register, “John Garver, a student at the University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown,  endorsed Paul in a column published today in The Daily Caller, a news web site launched  last year by political pundit Tucker Carlson and former GOP adviser Neil Patel.

In the piece, Garver said Santorum’s “interventionist policies, both domestic and foreign, stem from his irrational fear of freedom not working”

The 19-year-old went on to say: “It is because of this inability of status quo politicians to recognize the importance of our individual liberties that I have been drawn to Ron Paul. Unlike my uncle, he does not believe that the American people are incapable of forming decisions. He believes that an individual is more powerful than any group (a notion our founding fathers also believed in).”

ANSWERING THE QUESTIONS. In the Des Moines Register this morning, political writer Jennifer Jacobs floated the following questions- what she would be looking for tonight (as reported in James Hobbermann’s Morning Score today)

Can Bachmann and Perry keep their people, or will they go to Santorum?
It went to Perry.

Will Bachmann get fewer votes than she got in the Iowa straw poll (just under 5,000)?
So far, yes.

Can Perry right the ship and finish ahead of Gingrich?
Nope.

Is the ‘Santorum surge’ real?
Indeed.

Will Paul do better or worse than polling predicts?
Better.

Will the evangelicals lock arms behind a single candidate?
Apparently.

Will the desire to beat President Barack Obama drive voters to Mitt Romney, the candidate whom likely caucusgoers consider most electable?
Electability was key, but conservatism was moreso.

If Paul pulls this off, is it evidence of passion for a candidate and his ideas, or disenchantment with both political parties and a sign that voters are so frustrated they’re willing to upset the apple cart?
He didn’t pull it off

Will Iowa beat the record turnout? [The GOP record is 118,411 in 2008.]
It was very close, and it looks like a record. 

WALL STREET- from CNBC- “Stocks Kick Off 2012 With a Bang, Led by Banks”

• DOW up 180
• NASDAQ up 44
• S&P 500 up 20

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1 DAY UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
8 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
19 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
22 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS

QUOTE OF THE DAY (SHOT) “I don’t think I’m going to win,” Newt Gingrich, to ABC News about his chances in tomorrow’s Iowa Caucus

AND/BUT (CHASER) ”We may pull off one of the greatest upsets in the history of the Iowa caucuses,” Newt Gingrich in a tele-town hall later tonight

QUOTE OF THE DAY RUNNER UP: “You got a name? You got a name? You got a name?” Rick Perry to POLITICO’s Mike Allen after being challenged to answer questions about the loyalty of his campaign advisors.

AND FINALLY...RICK SANTORUM SAID THE FOLLOWING TODAY ”I don’t want to make black people’s lives better by giving them somebody else’s money; I want to give them the opportunity to go out and earn the money.”

TODAY ON THE TRAIL- All over the state. From the Washington Post’s team of political reporters group-filing tomorrow’s A1 lead piece:

“Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s agenda included four cities, spread over 269 miles. Former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.) drove a 171-mile circuit around Iowa’s navel. And Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.), the third candidate in the lead pack, began a long trek across northeastern part of the state, making five stops over 391 miles.”

“Over the past few months, Iowa has embraced and then rejected four charismatic front-runners: Rep. Michele Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich and pizza executive Herman Cain.”

KEY PASSAGE: “Now, the state seems set to split its vote among three candidates chosen, instead, for the ideas they represent.

For Romney, those are steadiness and electability.

For Paul, they are small government and personal liberty.

And Santorum’s appeal is based on his socially conservative views on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.”

WHAT WE MISSED: Newt Gingrich is recovering from the flu, which his campaign says was particularly bad on Friday and Saturday last week

THE LATEST FROM SANTORUM- He’s facing very tough questions about his endorsement of Mitt Romney in 2008 and about his position on abortion- and conflicting statements he gave on both during a Meet the Press interview yesterday. As Santorum is surging in the polls, he is now undergoing intensive media scrutiny.

THE LATEST FROM ROMNEY- He won the day. According to POLITICO’s Alexander Burns.

“…There were three good omens for Romney Monday that suggest no matter who wins in Iowa, he’ll be in good shape for the long haul.

The first was a harsh attack on Rick Santorum, mounted by Rick Perry on cable TV and on the campaign trail. The Texan blasted Santorum for having “raised the debt limit more than Obama” and supporting “the bridge to nowhere in Arizona” (he meant Alaska.) Both Perry and his wife, Anita, vowed to press on after Iowa, taking their campaign to South Carolina and also New Hampshire, where Perry isn’t scheduled to appear this week.

Perry wasn’t the only other Republican attacking Santorum. In a second Romney-friendly development, Ron Paul’s campaign got in on the action, with national chairman Jesse Benton accusing Santorum of having a “horrible record on the Second Amendment,” and telling POLITICO Santorum’s record on “so many other issues is so poor he can’t stand up to real criticism.”

And in a third, counterintuitively pro-Romney turn of events, Newt Gingrich vowed to stay in the race past Iowa and train his guns more intently on the GOP front-runner, whose supporters Gingrich blames for tearing down his own campaign.”

AND THEN ROMNEY PREDICTED VICTORY, TELLLING SUPPORTERS TONIGHT

“We’re going to win this thing with all our passion and strength and do everything we can to get this campaign on the right track to go across the nation and to pick up the states and to get the ballots I need and the votes I need to become our nominee. That’s what we’re going to get, with your help.

THE LATEST FROM PAUL- National Journal- “Paul Battles Assumptions He Can’t Win Outside Iowa”

“Paul has sought to defy the conventional wisdom that his campaign will end in Iowa by beginning to air television ads in New Hampshire, which votes Jan. 10, and in South Carolina, which holds its primary on Jan. 21”

Indeed, Paul is on the air in New Hampshire with what his campaign his calling his “closing argument”

INSIDER ADVANTAGE POLL TODAY GIVES ADVANTAGE ROMNEY, but the top three are well within the margin of error

Romney 23%
Paul 22%
Santorum 18%
Gingrich 16%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 2%

PPP POLL TODAY GIVES ADVANTAGE PAUL, but still, we have a three-way race on our hands. 

Paul 20%
Romney 19%
Santorum 18%
Gingrich 14%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 8%
Huntsman 4%

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT

• Caucus officially starts at 8pm.
• The first results should start coming in at about 8:30pm.
• Four years ago, Sen. Obama’s victory in Iowa was declared at 9:25pm ET.

• In 2008, Republicans saw a record caucus turnout of 118,000+ and many party officials also expect a record or near-record turnout this year.
• There are more than 1,700 precincts in Iowa that will be holding caucuses tomorrow night.

• In the modern primary system, only one Republican has won Iowa and gone on to be elected President (George W. Bush in 2000)
• In 2008, John McCain became the only Republican to finish outside of the Iowa top 3 and still go on to become the nominee
• Herbert Hoover is the only Iowan to be elected President

2008 REPUBLICAN IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS

Mike Huckabee 34.4%
Mitt Romney 25.2%
Fred Thompson 13.4%
John McCain 13%
Ron Paul 9.9%
Rudy Giuliani 3.4%
Turnout: 118,411

2008 Iowa Presidential Vote: Barack Obama 828,940 (54%) John McCain 682,379 (44%)

THE EVENING REPORT’S CONVENTIONAL WISDOM:

Mitt Romney will become the Republican nominee. He may face a challenge from the Republican right over the next six weeks but it will not be long, drawn out or fatal. A Santorum or Paul win in Iowa ultimately helps Romney. Santorum doesn’t have the organization to compete nationally and he will be crushed in New Hampshire next week. Paul is too crazy to ever win the Republican nomination or the presidency. It will be clear that Romney is the nominee by the State of the Union in three weeks. He may lose some states during the primary season and because of the way the party is awarding delegates, it may not be until March when he officially becomes the nominee, but everyone will know in a matter of days or weeks that 2012 will be Obama v. Romney.

COMING ATTRACTION: GOP BATTLE PLAN AGAINST OBAMA: USE HIS OWN WORDS AGAINST HIM- The Washington Post Monday top story-

“GOP officials in Washington are quietly and methodically finishing what operatives are calling “the book” — 500 pages of Obama quotes and video links that will form the backbone of the party’s attack strategy against the president leading up to Election Day 2012.

The document, portions of which were reviewed by The Washington Post, lays out how GOP officials plan to use Obama’s words and voice as they build an argument for his defeat: that he made specific promises and entered office with lofty expectations and has failed to deliver on both.

Republican officials say they will leverage the party’s newly catalogued video library containing every publicly available utterance from Obama since his 2008 campaign. Television and Internet ads will juxtapose specific Obama promises of job gains, homeowner assistance, help for people in poverty, lower health insurance premiums and stricter White House ethics standards against government data and news clippings that paint a different reality.

The decision by GOP officials to finalize a strategy at this stage underscores the view, in both parties, that the general-election campaign has begun — even if an official Republican nominee has not been selected.

The new GOP playbook is designed to take one of Obama’s great assets — the power of his oratory — and turn it into a liability. It details hundreds of potential targets, partially a result of a president who Republican strategists say is unusually prone to making detailed promises.”

FINALLY- Take a few minutes to think about how far we’ve come over the last six months leading up to tomorrow’s caucus- which itself is only the start of the Republican primary season. Through 13 debates, we’ve watched candidate after candidate rise and fall in public opinion polling. The title frontrunner has been awarded to Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney and, in the past week, we’ve seen the Santorum Surge. Tomorrow, Iowans caucus. And then, it’s on to New Hampshire…and South Carolina…and Florida…and Nevada…and…

WATCH- Political analyst & satirist James Kotecki today released a new video: The Iowa Surge Song (Old MacDonald Parody).

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2 DAYS UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
9 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
20 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
23 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

THE LATEST FROM IOWA- headline from The Fix’s Chris Cillizza- on the ground in Des Moines- “Romney has best odds, Santorum has the momentum”

CILLIZZA- “At this point, there’s not much left for the candidates — or the reporters who cover them — to do but wait and wonder.”

But, in fact, THERE IS ONE MORE NEWS CYCLE BETWEEN NOW AND CAUCUS DAY- So tomorrow is pivotal. Which of the following will be Monday’s story line?

• Santorum’s surge continues and he looks to be the come from behind winner of the Caucus
• Santorum’s support is falling as social conservatives take one final look. He’s likely to finish a close 2nd or 3rd behind Romney
• Perry’s support is growing and he is challenging Santorum and Paul for the top three
• Or something else

WHAT TO WATCH- does the Romney campaign engage with Santorum before Iowa or does the campaign (or perhaps the uncoordinated Super PACS supporting Romney) wait until the week before New Hampshire?

ONE THING IS CLEAR- the media is infatuated with Rick Santorum right now. For better or worse, he is getting all of the attention- and will through Caucus Day, unless something changes.

NEWT’S GOING NEGATIVE- but will it be too little too late for the embattled former frontrunner?

from POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin in MARSHALLTOWN, IOWA

“Leaving his pledge of a positive campaign behind, Gingrich pressed a tough line of attack that portrayed the former Massachusetts governor as soft on abortion - a major vulnerability for the frontrunner that hadn’t been raised directly by any of his opponents.

“I think New Hampshire is the perfect state to have a debate over Romneycare and to have a debate about tax-paid abortions, which he signed, and to have a debate about putting Planned Parenthood  on a government board, which he signed, and to have a debate about appointing liberal judges, which he did,” said Gingrich, starting in Marshalltown, Iowa, the case he’ll take to the Granite State and beyond next week.

Gingrich’s comments suggest that his contrast with Romney on taxes this week either didn’t penetrate or aren’t  sufficient to take down the frontrunner and that he needs to attack the former pro-abortion rights governor on a more explosive issue.”

QUOTE OF THE DAY- from Mitt Romney tonight in Council Bluffs, Iowa-

“You know, I’ve been looking at some video clips on YouTube, of President Obama, then candidate Obama, going through Iowa making promises. The gap between his promises and his performance is the largest I’ve seen since, well, the Kardashian wedding and the promise of ‘til death do us part.”

FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF NON-CONTENDERS IN THE IOWA CAUCUS: This interesting fundraising pitch from Jon Huntsman, who is skipping Iowa but making a run in New Hampshire next week, today in an e-mail to supporters:

“I am so humbled at the tremendous response we’ve received that today I am adding a special wrinkle: from now until midnight Wednesday, Mary Kaye and I will personally match – dollar for dollar – every new donation our campaign receives.

In just a few minutes, I will be holding a town hall in Deerfield, New Hampshire – our third event of the day, and 143rd event in the state. With only nine days to go until New Hampshire’s primary, it is critical that we have the resources – both on the ground and on TV – to compete with Mitt Romney.”

MORE FROM HUNTSMAN- A web video attack ad against RON PAUL’s foreign policy released this weekend, which is straight out of the Twilight Zone. Literally. 

THE POLL DRIVING THE WEEKEND- the Des Moines Register survey released at 8pm ET on New Year’s Eve- which found a three-way dead heat between ROMNEY, PAUL and SANTORUM

Romney 24%, Paul 22%, Santorum 15%, Gingrich 12%, Perry 11%, Bachmann 7%, Huntsman 2%

WAITING FOR the final PPP poll before the Caucus to be released later tonight

WHO WON THE DAY? Rick Santorum, according to POLITICO’s James Hohmann

“He’s facing intensifying scrutiny, but he’s also now THE center of attention out here, from Meet the Press to cable chatter. Momentum is his best friend. He’s in the right place at the right time.Voters we talked to at his event here make us feel like there’s definitely something of a bandwagon effect going on..”

TOMORROW’S TOP TALKER- New York Times- “Google Hones Its Advertising Message, Playing to Emotions”

“Though Google is a household name, it needs to tell its story now for a few reasons. It needs new businesses like the Chrome browser and the Google Plus social network to succeed if it is going to find sources of revenue beyond search ads.

The ads are also part of Google’s mission, led by Larry Page, its co-founder and chief executive, to pare down its product offering and make Google products more attractive, intuitive and integrated with one another

BIG QUOTE- “Google’s an online brand,” [Google Event Planner Lorin] Pollack said. “You can’t experience the brand except for typing keys. It’s a huge responsibility to actually bring that brand to life outside of the computer.”

AT THE BOX OFFICE- so far- results for the four day holiday weekend that is continuing-

1/ Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol $31.2 million
2/ Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows $22 million
3/ Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked $18.3 million
4/ War Horse $16.9 million
5/ The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo  $16.3 million

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL- GIANTS 14, DALLAS 0 with 4 minutes left in the 2nd

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4 DAYS UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
11 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
22 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Politics has become a really nasty, vicious, negative business and I think it’s disgusting and I think it’s dishonest”- Newt Gingrich to ABC’s Jonathan Karl

HIGHLIGHTS FROM TODAY ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

GINGRICH TEARS UP- from The Washington Post-

“Gingrich was asked to speak about a time his mother affected him at the event sponsored by CafeMom, a social networking website for mothers.

“You’ll get me all teary-eyed — Callista will tell you, I get teary-eyed every time we sing Christmas carols. My mother sang in the choir and loved singing in the choir,” Gingrich said, referring to his wife, as he fought back tears.

“But I identify my mother with being happy, loving life, having a sense of joy in her friends, but what she introduced me to, is late in her life she ended up in a long-term-care facility. She had bipolar disease, and depression, and she gradually acquired some physical ailments, and that introduced me to the issue of long-term care, which I did with [Former Nebraska Sen.] Bob Kerrey for three years, and that introduced me to the issue of Alzheimer’s, which I did with Bob Kerrey for three more years, and my whole emphasis on brain science comes indirectly from dealing with the real problems of real people in my family,” the former House Speaker continued, at moments stopping to cry.
The audience sympathetically cheered for Gingrich as he spoke about his mother.

“I do policy much easier than I do personal,” Gingrich joked.

WATCH VIDEO

FLASHBACK: Hillary Clinton January 2008, one day before the New Hampshire Primary that she went on to win- “This is very personal for me, it’s not just political, it’s not just public”

CHASER: Mitt Romney this evening at an event, via POLITICO’s Maggie Haberman:

“Here in Merrimack, Romney started talking about his parents and what they meant to him, and how they taught him to love America — and said, “No, no, I won’t cry.

ROMNEY SON MAKES A BIRTHER JOKE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE- via the Washington Post-

“He’s certainly not afraid of anything. He’s not hiding anything,” Matt Romney said in response to an query from an audience member on whether the former Massachusetts governor would release his tax returns. “You know, I heard someone suggest the other day that as soon as President Obama releases his grades and birth certificate and sort of a long list of things, then maybe he’d do it.”

Perhaps sensing trouble, the eldest Romney brother, Tagg, quickly jumped in.

“That was not my dad saying that,” he told the crowd.

“No, no, no, that was just a suggestion from someone else,” Matt Romney added.

AND THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN SEIZES ON IT- via ABC’s Jake Tapper-

“In a fundraising email, Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina pounced like a jungle caton a remark made by Mitt Romney’s son Matt, 40, seeking to paint his father as appealing to extreme elements.

“Friend,” wrote Messina in a mass email to supporters, “You’ve got to hear this. Asked at a Romney campaign event whether his father would follow decades of precedent and release his tax returns, Mitt Romney’s adult son Matt quoted the most recent Tea Party line, saying: ‘… As soon as President Obama releases his grades, and birth certificate, and sort of a long list of things, then maybe he will.’”

Asserted Messina, “This is how the Romney campaign thinks it’s going to win the Republican primary: by pandering to the dead-ender fringe of extremists who still question where the President was born. We can’t make them rewrite their talking points. But we can drive up the cost of this kind of politics.”

WELCOME TO THE GENERAL ELECTION

2012’s BIG STORY- RON PAUL TO AL HUNT ON POTENTIAL FOR A THIRD PARTY RUN ”I’ve never been an absolutist and say absolutely might or absolutely will, but I have no intention of doing. I can’t imagine it happening…we’re doing pretty well in the polls. So I’d better concentrate on the polls rather than on something like that.”

ROMNEY LEADING PAUL IN NBC/MARIST POLL IN IOWA

Romney 23%
Paul 21%
Santorum 15%
Perry 14%
Gingrich 13%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 2%

AND CONTINUES TO LEAD IN GALLUP DAILY TRACKING (NATIONAL)

Romney 26%
Gingrich 14%
Paul 11%
Perry 7%
Bachmann 5%
Santorum 5%
Huntsman 2%

TOMORROW at 7pm, the final Des Moines Register poll before the Caucus is released. We’ll have the results in a special Saturday edition of THE EVENING REPORT.

YOU’LL SEE THIS STORY AGAIN- Huffington Post’s Sam Stein- “Obama Campaign In Iowa Hopes To Flex Organizing Muscle”

“The Obama reelection campaign is paying significant attention to the Jan. 3 caucus, not just as a means of assessing future competition but also as a dry run for the 2012 general election. The president will technically be on the ballot. And his team would love nothing more than for him to scoop up more votes than some of the top names in the GOP primary. But the prevailing concern is to reengage the network of Hawkeye State supporters who initially pushed Barack Obama to the White House and to bring new ones into the fold.

In reporting on the Obama reelection team’s efforts in Iowa earlier this week, Politico referred to their work as a “shadow campaign.” In actuality, reelection aides are hoping that it ends up being a fairly open illustration of the very different styles of the president and his opponents.

“We have built this campaign from the ground up just like in ‘07 and ‘08,” said one Obama campaign official. “And in ‘07 and ‘08, it left a legacy in states in which we had a really strong field program and were able to engage volunteers. And what is clear is that Romney and the other candidates, rather than investing in organization and supporters on the ground, have instead competed on the air and on a national stage, and they haven’t left a legacy of a strong organization in states across the country. And they are not going to be able to just flip a switch. It takes time.”

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND: Endorsements matter in the hours before the Caucus. Also watch the DMR poll tomorrow night. This year’s caucus is unusual in that it falls the day after a long holiday weekend. Caucus-goers will be at home, likely watching local media, so small stories could make a big difference if they get significant media attention.

MUST-READ: NBC’s “Decision 2012: Iowa Caucus & New Hampshire Primary Guide” (.pdf) This is the briefing book NBC political reporters and anchors are reading this weekend to prepare for the next two weeks of political coverage.

WALL STREET- the final trading day of the year- from CNBC

• DOW down 69
• NASDAQ down 9
• S&P 500 down 5

DOW closed at 12217.56, finishing 1.4% higher for the month of December and 5.5% higher for the year.
NASDAQ closed at 2605.15, down 1.8% this year.
S&P 500 closed at 1257.60, essentially unchanged for 2011.

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5 DAYS UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
12 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
23 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

CAMPAIGN RESET- from The Washington Post’s Dan Balz in Ames- “Romney prepares aggressive Iowa finish”

“Romney is far from a clear favorite in Iowa: Rep. Ron Paul of Texas continues to show strength in the polls and is banking on a well-regarded organization, and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum is on the rise. But no campaign can match Romney’s for the breadth and depth of its infrastructure, and for the first time the weapons he can deploy are all on display.

For months, Romney’s campaign in Iowa appeared to be moving in slow motion, but it has suddenly taken on a new intensity and some Republican ­strategists say the former Massachusetts governor is building his Iowa momentum at just the right moment.

The volatile political landscape in Iowa underwent its latest jolts in the past 36 hours, scrambling the fortunes of several candidates — most notably Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Paul — and left Romney in his most favorable position in Iowa so far.

But increasingly, the focus of the race is Romney and his potential to win Tuesday. He is drawing energy from boisterous crowds, some of whose participants said in interviews that they had only recently come around to Romney because he seems like the party’s best bet to beat President Obama.

Romney asked Iowa voters Thursday to weigh their choices carefully. “I hope as you look at the people running you can measure their capacity to lead effectively and you can also determine whether they can become our nominee and defeat President Obama,” Romney told 400 supporters in Mason City. “I think I can.”

LEADING DESMOINESREGISTER.COM TONIGHT: ”Almost Bowl Time for ISU, UI”

THEIR OTHER TOP STORY- “Des Moines police arrest 12 protesters at Democratic headquarters”- as #OccupyTheCaucuses come to Iowa

“Twelve protesters have been arrested at the Iowa Democratic headquarters this afternoon, as they protested that Guantanamo remained open and corporate donations to campaigns.

As arrests were going on, other protesters with the Occupy the Caucuses movement chanted, “Hey, hey, ho, ho, Obama close Guantanamo.”

Among those arrested was Frankie Hughes, 14, who earlier today told a Register reporter that she gets good grades.

More than two dozen protesters were at the Democratic headquarters, the fourth Des Moines-area site in two days that protesters have demonstrated at.”

NEXT WEEK’S BIG STORY TONIGHT- “Michele Bachmann’s hard fall”- by POLITICO’s Maggie Haberman

“But as the race wraps up, the woman who was on a trajectory to become the first-ever female winner of the Iowa caucuses is fighting to avoid finishing dead last in the state where she was raised.

To underscore her troubles, Bachmann has spent the last 24 hours trying to spin the fallout from her Iowa state campaign chairman’s defection to the Ron Paul camp — insisting repeatedly that the man in question took a payoff to make the switch. Another longtime staffer, who went public to defend the departed chairman, was gone from the campaign by late Thursday.

All that seems certain, amid a fractured evangelical base and the latest polling data, is that the low-on-cash Bachmann rates as an extreme long shot to win the Iowa caucuses. There’s no comfort back home either: she faces uncertain re-election prospects in her own House seat at the end of the presidential primary season.”

QUOTE OF THE DAY- Mitt Romney “When the president’s characterization of our economy was, ‘It could be worse,’ it reminded me of Marie Antoinette: ‘Let them eat cake,’” Romney said, referring to the infamously dismissive remark toward the poor attributed to the queen.”

ALEX BURNS’ WHO WON THE DAY- RON PAUL

“But it was today when the full impact of state Sen. Kent Sorenson’s defection sank in, triggering a daylong firefight between Bachmann and her onetime supporter, whom she accused of taking a payoff to abandon her. When another Bachmann adviser, Iowa operative Wes Enos, came to Sorenson’s defense, he was booted off the campaign. If Bachmann had any chance of delivering a strong closing message to regain traction in the race, she just lost a day squabbling with a defector.

It wasn’t only Bachmann whose campaign shifted gears Thursday in reaction to Paul’s strength: Jon Huntsman put out a web video attacking him for the first time and Rick Santorum, the Iowa momentum candidate of the moment, went after Paul at multiple campaign stops. Add to that a Union Leader editorial blasting Paul as a “dangerous man” and it’s clear which candidate was at the center of the 2012 universe.”

ATTACK OF THE DAY: Huntsman v. Paul in this web ad in which he asks “Can New Hampshire voters really trust Ron Paul?” 

ROMNEY’S CLOSING ARGUMENT: Believe in America Again. 60-second ad airing in Iowa. 

POLL OF THE DAY: INSIDER ADVANTAGE FINDS A 3-WAY TIE IN IOWA

Romney 17%
Paul 17%
Gingrich 17%
Santorum 13%
Bachmann 12%
Perry 11%
Huntsman 3%

RASMUSSEN FINDS ROMNEY UP BY ONE IN IOWA

Romney 23%
Paul 22%
Santorum 16%
Gingrich 13%
Perry 13%
Bachmann 5%
Huntsman 3%

AND GALLUP TRACKING HAS ROMNEY UP BY FOUR NATIONALLY

Romney 27%
Gingrich 23%
Paul 11%
Perry 8%
Bachmann 5%
Santorum 4%
Huntsman 2%

DAVID YEPSEN IN THE WASHINGTON POST- FIVE MYTHS ABOUT THE IOWA CAUCUSES

1/ Iowa voters don’t represent the United States.
2/ Retail politics is king in Iowa.
3/ To win, you need to appeal to right-wing activists.
4/ The weather will influence the outcome.
5/ Iowa caucus-goers take voting more seriously than people in other states.

READ THE DEAN OF THE HAWKEYE STATE’s full analysis 

WALL STREET- from CNBC- “Stocks End Near Highs, S&P Positive for 2011”

• DOW up 136
• NASDAQ up 24
• S&P 500 up 14

6 DAYS UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
13 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
24 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

TOP STORY- “Romney, Santorum Rising in Iowa”- The Washington Post’s Amy Gardner on the ground in Des Moines-

“There was evidence of growing intensity on both sides of the argument [today] as the candidates crisscrossed the state on a frenzied day of campaigning.

Against the backdrop of persistent questions about his conservative credentials, Romney drew enthusiastic crowds as he rumbled across eastern Iowa in a bus making the case that he is the most electable Republican in the field.

The support lost by Gingrich, whose front-runner status made him the subject of a barrage of negative TV ads, flowed to other candidates, notably Santorum

In one bit of good news for Gingrich on Wednesday, his campaign announced that it had raised $9 million in the past quarter. That is enough money to allow him to respond to some of the negative attacks and continue his campaign into later contests.

After months of being near the bottom of the standings, San­torum has surged, becoming the latest symbol of the Republican electorate’s continuing search for a satisfactory candidate. His new statewide radio ad, “Unite,” promotes his record on abortion and dubs him the “one consistent conservative” in the race.”

GAME CHANGE: With six days to go before voting begins, ROMNEY and SANTORUM are rising,GINGRICH is falling, PAUL is in a fight for second and PERRY and BACHMANN are fighting to stay relevant.

WHAT DROVE THE DAY: A new poll from CNN that found MITT ROMNEY leading the field in Iowa, with RON PAUL second and RICK SANTORUM third. 

Romney 25%

Paul 22%

Santorum 16%

Gingrich 14%

Perry 11%

Bachmann 9%

Huntsman 1%

ALSO FROM IOWA, A PPP Poll that finds RON PAUL with a four point lead over ROMNEY

Paul 24%

Romney 20%

Gingrich 13%

Bachmann 11%

Perry 10%

Santorum 10%

Huntsman 4%

GALLUP NATIONAL TRACKING- Gingrich and Romney are tied

Gingrich 25%

Romney 25%

Paul 11%

Perry 8%

Bachmann 5%

Santorum 4%

Huntsman 1%

Meanwhile, a CNN survey from New Hampshire also released this afternoon shows MITT ROMNEYwith a rock solid 27-point lead OVER RON PAUL in the first primary state.

THE WASHINGTON MACHINE- In what must be a nominee for best campaign ad of the 2012 cycle to date, today the PAUL campaign released a new 30-second attack ad aiming at both Gingrich and Romney. 

LEADING POLITICO TONIGHT, “Mitt Looks to Lock Down Iowa”

“Buoyed by internal polling and a CNN survey released Wednesday afternoon that showed Newt Gingrich falling to fourth place in Iowa, with Ron Paul in second and Rick Santorum climbing to third, Romney told reporters in a deli here that he couldn’t think of a reason why he won’t win the state.

“I can’t imagine, except that there are other good people running, and they’ve got good campaigns,” he said. “I like the fact that my support is building and the momentum is positive, but I can’t tell you where it’s going to end up.”

Romney will spend the next three days in the state intensifying his focus in Iowa at a moment when the state, and possibly an early wrap-up of the nomination, are now tantalizingly in reach.

He’s nearly 30 points ahead in his New Hampshire stronghold, which will vote the week after Iowa.Wins in both will make it increasingly hard for his rivals to continue their campaigns.”

AS NATIONAL JOURNAL’S ETHAN KLAPPER ASKED TODAY...if Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire, how long before the GOP nomination is completely locked up? Developments so far this week seem far removed from discussion, as recently as this past weekend, of a prolonged primary season and even a contested convention.

BREAKING TONIGHT FROM THE BATTLE FOR THIRD IN IOWA…Michele Bachmann’s Iowa campaign manager, Kent Sorenson, has resigned and is now working for RON PAUL.

The latest from POLITICO’s Alexander Burns

“Sorenson made the announcement at a Paul rally with veterans here in Des Moines, telling the crowd: “I believe we’re at a turning point in this campaign.”

Calling the decision to abandon Bachmann a painful one, Sorenson said he felt obligated to join Paul as the “Republican establishment” tries to undermine his campaign.

“I thought it was my duty to come to his aid, just like he came to my aid during my Senate race, which was a very nasty race,” Sorenson said, pledging to go all-out for Paul over the next few days.

To cheers from the crowd, he continued: “We’re going to take Ron Paul all the way to the White House.”

SO WHO WON THE DAY? Alex says it’s Rick Santorum.

“At the start of the month, Rick Santorum needed the following things to happen in order for him to be competitive in Iowa: Newt Gingrich needed to fade. Evangelicals needed to move toward his campaign. Then voters needed to see some tangible sign of momentum, in order to speed up the tortoise-like pace of his Iowa campaign.

The former Pennsylvania senator has now gotten at least a dose of all three ingredients. Gingrich’s campaign has lost ground in every recent Iowa poll. Santorum won the endorsement of a number of high-profile Christian conservatives, including the head of The Family Leader. And today, Santorum placed third in an Iowa poll for the first time, running fairly close behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in a CNN/Time magazine survey.”

DEPARTMENT OF MAKING THINGS WORSE- Newt Gingrich today attempted to explain his March cruise in Greece by saying it gave him a better understanding of the financial crisis that began in Greece and now threatens the European economy

“Ironically, being in Greece during the Greek crisis was very helpful and gave me a much deeper perspective of how hard this was going to be,” he said.

TOP BELTWAY TALKER IN THE MORNING- Helene Cooper in the New York Times- White House Memo: “Bipartisan Agreement: Obama Isn’t Schmoozing”

“Mr. Obama, in general, does not go out of his way to play the glad-handing, ego-stroking presidential role. While he does sometimes offer a ride on Air Force One to a senator or member of Congress, more often than not, he keeps Congress and official Washington at arm’s length, spending his down time with a small — and shrinking — inner circle of aides and old friends.

He typically golfs with a trio of mid- to low-level staff members little known outside the West Wing. He does not spend much time at Camp David, the retreat other presidents have used to woo Washington. His social life runs toward evenings playing Taboo with old friends and their families, Wii video games with his wife and daughters or basketball with Robert Wolf, a banker and the rare new best friend Mr. Obama has acquired since entering politics. He vacations with friends from Chicago on Martha’s Vineyard in August and in Hawaii at Christmas.

This week, for example, Mr. Obama is ensconced in the protective bubble of the Secret Service. With him are his closest outside-the-Beltway-friends, including Eric Whitaker, a Chicago doctor, and two of Mr. Obama’s Hawaii friends from Punahou School: Mike Ramos, a businessman,and Robert Titcomb, a commercial fisherman whom Mr. Obama has stuck by despite his arrest in April on suspicion of soliciting a prostitute. Mr. Obama bolted from Washington last Friday barely an hour after he had signed legislation extending the payroll tax cut after a grinding fight with House Republicans whose result is widely viewed as a big win for him. His relationship with Washington insiders is described by members of both parties as “remote,” “distant” and “perfunctory.”

KEY QUOTE: “This is not a Lincoln bedroom guy,” said James Carville, the Democratic strategist, referring to the guest bedroom at the White House where President Bill Clinton put up supporters and donors. “In fact, he’s the anti-Lincoln bedroom guy. He doesn’t seem to relish, or even like, having politicians around.”

WALL STREET- from CNBC- ”Stocks End Near Lows, S&P Negative for 2011”

• DOW down 140
• NASDAQ down 35
• S&P 500 down 16

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