The Golden Report

POST-DEBATE EDITION

BREAKING: The Trustees of Pennsylvania State University held a news conference at 10pm to announce that they have fired head football coach Joe Paterno and University President Graham Spanier amid a growing child sex abuse scandal with allegations of abuse facing a longtime assistant coach. Yesterday, Paterno announced that he had planned to retire after this season.

THE DEBATE:

The Ninth Republican Presidential Candidates Debate just concluded from the campus of Oakland University in Oakland (outside of Rochester), Michigan. The one-hour forty-five minute debate aired on CNBC and was moderated by John Harwood and Maria Bartiromo.

THREE Takeaway from tonight’s debate:

1/ Rick Perry suffered a seemingly devastating moment for his campaign when he suggested that he would eliminate three federal departments under his budget/deficit reduction plan, then turned to Ron Paul (who proposes eliminating five departments) to list them, and could not remember the third, after Education and Commerce.

Another candidate on stage said “EPA” in an attempt to help Perry recover. But then Perry was prompted by Harwood “seriously? seriously, EPA was the one you were looking for?” he asked. And Perry was still not able to come up with the third cabinet department…Harwood “but you can’t name the third one?” Perry “I would do away with education…with commerce..and..let’s see…I can’t..the third one…I’m sorry.”

Twenty minutes later, when answering a different question, Perry finally said that he was trying to remember that it was the department of energy.

Here’s the video of the full question (it’s about 2 minutes long, forward to 1:40 for the Perry “oops” moment)

2/ Herman Cain went through the debate nearly unscathed. Now in the second week of allegations of sexual harassment, and with four accusers who have come forward with statements alleging misconduct by Cain, this was the dominant campaign narrative going into the debate.

But we knew this debate was hard-centered around jobs and the economy. Indeed, although the first question (on the Italian debt crisis) did go to Cain, it wasn’t until 20 minutes into the debate that Cain was asked directly about the allegations. Moderator Maria Bartaromo was booed by the audience for asking the question and Cain gave what has become his standard response- blaming the media and saying that he does not deserve to be judged in the court of public opinion.

Harwood asked a follow-up question to Romney- asking whether he would fire Cain if he was CEO of his company. Romney ducked and avoided an opportunity to draw distance between himself and (for now) his chief rival for the Republican nomination. That was a telling exchange that ended the discussion of Cain’s allegations at the debate. And now with a Perry fumble, it is possible that Cain has escaped completely from allegations that threatened his candidacy.

3/ Mitt Romney looked and sounded like the Republican presidential nominee. With the exception of messed up hair tonight, Romney was in control when answering questions and gave solid, well-rounded answers on everything from taxes to the European debt crisis to Chinese currency manipulation. He avoided calling out other candidates by name, choosing instead to focus all criticism on President Obama. Likewise, only Jon Huntsman took a serious shot at Romney (continuing a theme he started on Meet the Press on Sunday), accusing Romney of waffling on his Chinese policy. Despite some edging by Harwood, the exchange did not result in any of the intra-candidate fireworks like we have seen in previous debates

THE EVENING REPORT DEBATE SCORECARD: Romney, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, Santorum, Bachmann, Paul, Perry.

IN OTHER NEWS:

AWFUL STORY FOR VETERANS DAY: Breaking tonight from the Washington Post- “Remains of war dead dumped in landfill”

“The Dover Air Force Base mortuary for years disposed of portions of troops’ remains by cremating them and dumping the ashes in a Virginia landfill, a practice that officials have since abandoned in favor of burial at sea.

The Dover, Del., mortuary, the main point of entry for the nation’s war dead and the target of federal investigations of alleged mishandling of remains, engaged in the practice from 2003 to 2008, according to Air Force officials. The manner of disposal was not disclosed to relatives of fallen service members.”

IS ITALY NEXT IN EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS? The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down over 3% today on new fears from Europe that Italy may be the next county to suffer from a growing sovereign debt crisis. Borrowing costs today hit 7% as the BBC reports:

“Italy’s cost of borrowing has touched a new record, a day after Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said he would resign once budget reforms were passed. If Italy tried to borrow money today, payable in 10 years, it would have to pay an interest rate of more than 7%.

Investors fear that Italy could become the next victim of the debt crisis. In a bid to calm markets, President Giorgio Napolitano said reforms would be passed and Mr Berlusconi would resign “within a few days. The 7% level is widely viewed as unsustainable and was the point at which Portugal, Greece and the Irish Republic were forced to seek a bailout.”

WALL STREET

• Dow down 328
• NASDAQ down 106
• S&P 500 down 47

FINALLY- Today the federal government conducted the first ever nationwide test of the Emergency Alert System (EAS), broadcasting a 30-second alert at 2pm ET on all television and radio stations across the country. The FCC, other federal agencies, and the private sector are still reviewing the data from today’s test- which worked well in some places, and not so well in others, according to a statement from the FCC,

“The Nationwide EAS Test served the purpose for which it was intended, to identify gaps and generate a comprehensive set of data to help strengthen our ability to communicate during real emergencies. Based on preliminary data, large regions of the country received the test but some areas did not. We are currently in the process of collecting and analyzing data, and will reach a conclusion when that process is complete.”

Here’s how the test looked today: (scroll to about 2 minutes in this amateur video).

JUST IN: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid plans to bring a veterans tax break bill to the floor for a vote on or close to Veterans Day, the latest component of the President’s proposed American Jobs Act to be considered in a piece-meal approach. In doing so, Reid is all but daring Republicans to vote against a popular tax break on a symbolic holiday. Today, the Senate failed to reach 60 votes to cut off debate on a transportation and infrastructure bill, one day after President Obama went to Washington’s Key Bridge to urge its passage.

TOP STORY: Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou appeared to walk back today on his proposal earlier this week to put the EU-brokered financial rescue package for his country up for a vote by popular referendum. Tomorrow, Papandreou faces a vote of no confidence in the Greek Parliament and it is not clear if he and his ruling political party will survive the vote. This comes as leaders of the G-20 nations are meeting this week in Cannes, France to discuss the proposal and its effects, should it pass or fail.

TOMORROW MORNING: The Labor Department releases its monthly employment report which will show the jobs situation for the month of October. Bloomberg is predicting that 95,000 jobs were added last month and the unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 9.1%. The numbers are released at 8:30am EST.

WALL STREET:

• DOW up 208
• NASDAQ up 58
• S&P 500 up 23

STILL IN THE DARK: As of this hour, 318,212 customers in Connecticut remain without power after Saturday’s historic and unusual snow storm. Tonight, the Connecticut National Guard has been dispatched to some areas of the hard-hit Farmington Valley. Many school districts have been closed for the entire week. Connecticut Light & Power, the state’s primary utility company, predicts that all customers will have power restored by Sunday night.

TOP POLITICAL STORY: the developing scandal over allegations of sexual harassment by Republican frontrunner Herman Cain. The story has taken a number of new developments: with now three accusers coming forward, at least one asking permission from the National Restaurant Association to go public with her story and an accusation by the Cain campaign that a staffer with the Rick Perry campaign reportedly leaked this story to POLITICO. In an interview with CNN tonight, Perry strongly denied that, saying, “You know, I don’t know how to tell it any other way except we knew nothing about it.”

SO FAR, Cain is holding his own against a growing media firestorm. But as each day goes by, more and more details are coming out that, when compared against Cain’s prior statements, and the statements that he has made this week, don’t appear to add up. The biggest unknown right now is what kind of damage this story may have in the eyes of Cain’s supporters. However, his campaign reported this week that they have been raising on average of $1 million a day, a sign that Cain’s base of support may not be weakened- but rather emboldened- by this controversy. And with Rick Perry being drawn into the story, the Romney campaign is having a very good week. Although their candidate is not attracting any media attention, he also isn’t attracting any scrutiny while his chief obstacle (at the moment) for frontrunner status is fighting hard to get his campaign back on track.

THE NEXT DEBATE is Wednesday night in Rochester, Michigan. Its focus is slated to be jobs and the economy, although it is hard to see at this point how the Cain scandal could not be brought up.

RASMUSSEN POLL out today:

• Cain 26%
• Romney 23%
• Gingrich 14%
• Perry 8%
• Paul 7%
• Bachmann 2%
• Huntsman 2%
• Santorum 1%

QUINNIPIAC POLL out Wednesday:

• Cain 30%
• Romney 23%
• Gingrich 10%
• Perry 8%
• Paul 7%
• Bachmann 4%
• Huntsman 2%
• Santorum 1%

FINALLY..SERIOUSLY…”Siri” the voice activated network on Apple’s new iPhone 4S, encountered a major glitch today resulting in its first outage. According to TechCrunch, which is compiling some of the best tweets from users experiencing the problem, “When you try to use Siri on the iPhone 4S right now, the usually perky virtual assistant just responds: “Sorry, I am having trouble connecting to the network” and does nothing.”

BREAKING: Longtime “60 Minutes” commentator Andy Rooney, who just recorded his final essay for the CBS newsmagazine a few weeks ago, is hospitalized in stable condition tonight after what the Washington Post reports were “serious complications” following minor surgery

WE CAN’T WAIT: President Obama continued his administration’s “We Can’t Wait” initiative today, announcing executive branch actions directed towards helping veterans and students. The Department of Education’s student loan restructuring program will accelerate reforms of the student lending system that were scheduled to go into effect in 2014 with two key elements: capping loan payments at 10% of income and forgiving remaining debt after 20 payments. For veterans, the Administration through the Health and Human Services department announced that they are challenging the 8,000 community health centers scheduled to open as a result of the Affordable Care Act to hire at least one veteran each and providing additional training to transition veterans to careers as physician assistants.

A FLAT TAX: In South Carolina today, Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry announced his much-anticipated tax plan- which Perry calls a flat tax. Two big elements: the plan allows for anyone who chooses to remain within the existing system (the campaign will therefore say that it is not a burden because anyone can “keep their existing tax bracket”) and the Perry proposal would place a 20% cap on individual income taxes.

In an Op/Ed in the Wall Street Journal this morning, Perry introduced his “Cut, Balance and Grow” plan,

“The plan starts with giving Americans a choice between a new, flat tax rate of 20% or their current income tax rate. The new flat tax preserves mortgage interest, charitable and state and local tax exemptions for families earning less than $500,000 annually, and it increases the standard deduction to $12,500 for individuals and dependents.

This simple 20% flat tax will allow Americans to file their taxes on a postcard, saving up to $483 billion in compliance costs. By eliminating the dozens of carve-outs that make the current code so incomprehensible, we will renew incentives for entrepreneurial risk-taking and investment that creates jobs, inspires Americans to work hard and forms the foundation of a strong economy.

My plan also abolishes the death tax once and for all, providing needed certainty to American family farms and small businesses.”

TONIGHT in his first appearance on THE O’REILLY FACTOR, part of the Perry re-introduction and the campaign’s Cut, Balance & Grow roll-out, the Texas Governor had some interesting comments on his 10 weeks in the Republican race, including the series of debates  he has participated in, to date,

“Actually, these debates are set up for nothing more than to tear down the candidates. It pretty hard to be able to sit and lay out your ideas and your concepts with a one minute response. So, you know, if there was a mistake made, it was probably ever doing one of the campaigns [debates] when all they’re interested in is stirring up between the candidates instead of really talking about the issues that are important to the American people,” he said. 

NATIONAL JOURNAL AND CBS NEWS announced today that they are sponsoring a Republican presidential candidates debate in Greenville, South Carolina on Saturday November 12th with a focus on foreign policy and national security. This debate is squeezed in between the debates we already had on the calendar for November: Wed 11/09 in Rochester, Michigan and Tuesday 11/15 in Washington, DC. The NJ/CBS debate will be the 10th of the primary season.

CBS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL out today:

• Cain 25%
• Romney 21%
• Gingrich 10%
• Paul 8%
• Perry 6%
• Bachmann 2%
• Huntsman 1%
• Santorum 1%

Observations on this poll- which is surprising for a number of reasons:

• Herman Cain remains in first place despite a weaker debate last Tuesday and two weeks of critical reporting on the the candidates’ 9-9-9 economic plan

• Newt Gingrich is in third place- he has been in single digits in nearly every other poll this year and has run a disorganized, flustered and even angry campaign

• Rick Perry, who the conventional political narrative suggests is challenging Mitt Romney for the nomination, places fifth in this poll, registering only 6% of the national Republican respondents and behind Rep. Ron Paul

• Jon Huntsman, who went on the Colbert Report last night on Comedy Central, still can’t rise above the 1% mark in a major national poll

PRESIDENT OBAMA JOB APPROVAL RATING: Approve 46%, Disapprove 46%

CONGRESSIONAL JOB APPROVAL RATING: Approve 9%, Disapprove 84%

EUROZONE BALOUT- the latest from BBC News-

“The Polish presidency of the EU has confirmed to the BBC that key meetings have been postponed. The EU’s 27 finance ministers and the 17-nation Eurogroup will not now meet on Wednesday, although a full emergency heads-of-government summit will happen.

This could mean a delay to final announcements on solutions.”

WALL STREET- on the news from Europe, the final hour of trading saw a selloff today, sending major indices lower:

• DOW down 207
• NASDAQ down 67
• S&P 500 down 25

IBM today named Virginia Rometty its next CEO, the first female CEO in IBM’s history. She will begin on January 1st.

FINALLY..If you haven’t yet watched HERMAN CAIN’s new campaign video- released last night- you just have to. It is one of the most bizarre campaign ads you might ever watch. Keep in mind that this candidate leads the CBS News/NYT poll we referenced earlier.

TOP STORY: The House of Representatives earlier tonight approved three trade agreements- with Colombia, Panama and South Korea. The Senate is currently in session and expected to also approve the free trade agreements by later tonight. The passage of the FTAs marks a rare occurrence in present-day Washington, bi-partisan consensus. The vote on the Colombian deal, the most contentious of the three, was 262-167, including 32 Democrats. Panama was approved 300-129. South Korea was approved by a 278-151 vote. In addition, the House approved an extension of Trade Adjustment Assistance legislation, with about half of the Republican caucus voting for the separate bill. Tomorrow, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak address a joint session of Congress and attends a State Dinner at The White House. Today’s action in Congress is the most significant on trade issues since the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993. 

NEW NBC NEWS/WALL STREET JOURNAL POLL out tonight:

CAIN 27%

ROMNEY 23%

PERRY 16%

PAUL 11%

GINGRICH 8%

BACHMANN 5%

HUNTSMAN 3%

SANTORUM 1%

President Obama Job Approval Rating: 44%, Disapprove: 51%

The surge of Herman Cain to the top of the NBC/WSJ poll, conducted last Thursday through Monday (over the Columbus Day Weekend) is both surprising and clearly short-lived. After Cain’s performance in last night’s New Hampshire Debate, the media is not taking a serious examination of his “9-9-9” economic and tax plan and asking more critical questions.

HEAD TO HEADS:

Obama 46%

Romney 44%

Obama 49%

Cain 38%

Obama 51%

Perry 39%

Obama 44%

Generic Republican 42%

NEW HAMPSHIRE Secretary of State Bill Gardner, who has the sole authority under New Hampshire law to schedule the date of the state’s traditional “First in the Nation” presidential primary, today threatened to hold the primary in December of this year if Nevada does not change the date of their caucuses, currently scheduled for Saturday 01/14/2012. 

From Gardner’s extraordinary statement, “Why New Hampshire’s Primary Tradition is Important”:

DEMOCRACY IS HARD WORK.  Protecting American democracy has been a 

cause of freedom in our nation for over two centuries, and our fellow citizens who 

have gone before us dedicated their lives, and in some cases lost their lives, in that 

fight.  The principles of democracy and freedom are worth every bit of that fight.

For nearly 100 years, the New Hampshire First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary 

has had meaning and relevance to American politics.

NEW HAMSHIRE IS FIRST FOR A REASON

IT’S REALLY UP TO NEVADA.  If Nevada does not accept a date of Tuesday, 

January 17 th or later for its caucus, it leaves New Hampshire  no choice but to 

consider December of this year.  The dates of Tuesday, December 13th and 

Tuesday, December 6th are realistic options, and we have logistics in place to 

make either date happen if needed.

THE NEXT STEPS are not clear. Presumably, there will be negotiations between New Hampshire and Nevada, perhaps coordinated by the national Republican Party. It still seems very unlikely that, despite Gardner’s threats to the contrary, that the New Hampshire Primary will be held this year. the dates he mentioned are nearly (and less than) two months away. 

THE EVENING REPORT predicts that Gardner will eventually relent and schedule his state’s primary on Tuesday January 10th, eight days after Iowa and four days before Nevada. 

IN DETROIT today, the accused “underwear bomber,” Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab pleaded guilty to terrorism charges stemming from the attempted 2009 terrorist attack to bring down a Northwest Airlines plane on Christmas Day. Abdul Muttalab had been acting in his own defense at his trial, which began this week. His guilty plea was an unexpected development.

“I carried with me an explosive device to avenge the killing of innocent Muslims,” Abdul Mutallab said, according to a CNN report, adding that the failed plot was in retaliation for “U.S. tyranny and oppression of Muslims. I am guilty of this by U.S. law, but not in the Koran,” he added. “If you laugh at us now, we will laugh to you later.”

STATEMENT from Attorney General Eric Holder “Contrary to what some have claimed, today’s plea removes any doubt that our courts are one of the most effective tools we have to fight terrorism and keep the American people safe.  Our priority in this case was to ensure that we arrested a man who tried to do us harm, that we collected actionable intelligence from him and that we prosecuted him in a way that was consistent with the rule of law.  We will continue to be aggressive in our fight against terrorism and those who target us, and we will let results, not rhetoric, guide our actions.”

Abdul Muttalab’s most serious of eight charges, attempted use of a weapon of mass destruction, carries a maximum sentence of life in prison. He is expected to be formally sentenced in early January next year. 

WALL STREET TODAY:

Dow up 103

NASDAQ up 21

S&P 500 up 12

IN EUROPE, Slovakian leaders have reached an agreement between the opposition party and the party of the outgoing government (dissolved yesterday in a no-confidence vote) to bring the Eurozone bailout fund back to parliament for a second vote by Friday, when it is expected to pass. Slovakia would then become the 17th and final European Union nation to approve the bailout, setting into motion the next steps in attempts by European leaders to save off a serious debt crisis. 

The Dow is now hovering around the unchanged mark, year to date.

FINALLY…it was a tough day for those who are still using the Blackberry, manufactured by the Canadian company Research in Motion (RIM). An international outage entered its third day today and spread through North America, causing messages, including SMS and the device’s popular Blackberry Messenger (BBM) feature to be delayed. RIM offered periodic updates throughout the day through their Twitter account and on their corporate web site. 

Here’s how the Wall Street Journal reports on the story tonight:

“RIM blamed the outages, affecting customers on at least five continents, on an internal technical glitch—a failed switch and an inoperable backup. But even as the company promised customers a day earlier that it had fixed that problem—and expected customer service to quickly return—disruptions spread.

In a hastily organized conference call with reporters Wednesday afternoon, RIM’s chief technology officer for software, David Yach, said the company didn’t see any signs of hacking or other security breach, but industry analysts didn’t rule out sabotage.

RIM has seen its share price plummet this year—down about 60% since January—as competitors Apple Inc. and Google Inc.’s Android operating system snap up smartphone market share in North America and beyond.”

Happy Columbus Day!

NEW GALLUP POLL out today (with changes from last month’s Gallup survey): 

Mitt Romney 20% (-4%)

Herman Cain 18% (+13%)

Rick Perry 15% (-16%)

Ron Paul 8% (-5%)

Newt Gingrich 7% (+2%)

Michele Bachmann 5% (-)

Rick Santorum 3% (+1%)

Huntsman 2% (+1%)

Undecided 20% (+10%)

MORE POLLS later in the Report. 

Tomorrow in Hanover, New Hampshire, the Republican presidential candidates share the same stage once again for the seventh debate of the election season, and the first since September 22nd. It will be the second debate in the state of New Hampshire- which is expected to play host to the “first in the nation” primary next January. The last New Hampshire debate, on June 13th, was when Rep. Michele Bachmann announced her candidacy. 

Ahead of the debate, many of the top candidates were campaigning in New Hampshire today. The Nashua Telegraph tops its political coverage tonight by making note of Bachmann’s seeming absence from the state since announcing her candidacy, with the headline, “Bachmann back in NH after four-month absence” <http://bit.ly/pCK2cz>

Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who did not participate in June’s New Hampshire debate, gave what his campaign described as a “major foreign policy speech” today, which his campaign tried to present as a contrast to frontrunner Mitt Romney’s Friday foreign policy speech in South Carolina. From his prepared remarks, Huntsman said- in trying to build that contrast-, “A reexamination of America’s role in the world also requires a reexamination of our military and defense infrastructure…We still have remnants of a top-heavy, post-Cold War infrastructure. It needs to be transformed to reflect the 21st Century world, and the growing asymmetric threats we face.” The news of Huntsman’s speech, however, may be the more hawkish tone he took towards Iran, saying, “I cannot live with a nuclear-armed Iran. If you want an example of when I would use American force, it would be that.”

Despite Romney & Huntsman attempting to interject foreign policy into the race- it is unlikely that it will bump the economy from the key issue determining the election.

And it is in that light that Romney today tried to position himself as aligned with the surging campaign of businessman Herman Cain, telling a town hall meeting in New Hampshire tonight, “We each have our own experiences, he’s [Cain’s] a great guy. Vote for either one of us and you’ll be happy.”

HARVARD UNIVERSITY/ST ANSLEM COLLGE POLL out today:

Romney 38%

Cain 20%

Paul 13%

Gingrich 5%

Perry 4%

Huntsman 4%

Bachmann 3%

Santorum 1%

Johnson 1%

Former New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg- who THE EVENING REPORT saw walking on Eye Street last week- today announced his endorsement of Mitt Romney

In a further sign that her campaign is losing traction- and money- the Bachmann campaign over the weekend announced they were closing their Virginia headquarters and moving all of their resources to Iowa. They now consider the January 3rd caucuses as make-or-break [probably a strong finish in the top 3]

Rick Perry has a new 60-second web ad up today, “Romney’s Remedy” which is a must-watch if only for the theatrical contrast the ad draws between Romney and President Obama. Watch the scene when Barack Obama is looking into the mirror and the face of Mitt Romney appears and then Obama saying, “I agree with Mitt Romney…he’s right.” It finishes with Romney’s quote from the 9/22 debate “there are a lot of reasons not to elect me” and, once again, Obama saying “he’s right.” The ad: <http://youtu.be/LfcOGWRfXdk>

THREE THINGS TO WATCH in tomorrow night’s debate (7pm, sponsored by The Washington Post and Bloomberg and presented by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation)

1/ September’s debates were about Romney v Perry. With Perry’s enthusiasm fading for the moment (his fundraising numbers for the 3rd Quarter indicate he has a strong finance apparatus and evolving organization that Cain, for example, does not have), watch to see if Romney identifies another candidate on stage as a threat, or returns to the position he held for most of the early summer, of sitting back while the second and third-tier candidates fight it out.

2/ As important as watching Romney’s strategy- watch Perry’s as well. The Texas Governor will likely not have as much time as he was allowed in previous debates to answer questions as the attention will be on Romney, Cain and other candidates. Perry has also developed a reputation as a poor debater. He comes into the debate with his performance bar set extremely low. A strong showing- solid answers on questions he previously waffled on- could go a long way to regaining the enthusiasm and attention that accompanied his introduction to the campaign. Put another way- it’s not going to take a lot to turn Perry around

3/ The third-tier. In previous debates, Rick Santorum aligned himself with Mitt Romeny in the pile-on of Rick Perry. And to some extent, so did Michele Bachmann. With Perry no longer a second-place candidate, watch to see where these candidates turn. Specifically, Santorum has the most to gain- as a candidate who is in a large need of a second-look in order to revive his campaign. He is hoping that the Tea Party’s enthusiasm wave that began back in April with Donald Trump- then elevated Michele Bachmann’s candidacy to win the Iowa Caucuses in August, then brought Rick Perry to near front-runner status in September and has now elevated the candidacy of Herman Cain, will next turn to him as he targets a strong showing in January’s Iowa Caucus. 

ANOTHER POLL…from Washington Post/Bloomberg and released today:

Romney 24%

Cain 16%

Perry 13%

Paul 6%

Bachmann 4%

Gingrich 3% 

Santorum 1%

Huntsman 0%

IN OTHER NEWS:

Malta today became the 16th European nation to approve a EuroZone bailout fund first negotiated in July. Just one country- Slovakia- remains in order for the fund to be ratified. Negotiations in the Slovak parliament are continuing on Tuesday. In the end, an agreement is expected to be reached. The reality is, however, that the fund as is now close to being approved does not come close to the amount now known to be needed, but, as the BBC reports, “French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel pledged on Sunday to do what it takes to protect European banks from the debt crisis. The leaders said they were close to a detailed package to ease the crisis and would give further details within weeks.” Meanwhile, a key European Union meeting that was anticipated to occur this week was postponed until at least next week as Merkel and Sarkozy continue negotiations. 

That news was enough to send WALL STREET significantly higher on a light day of holiday trading:

DOW up 330

Nasdaq up 87

S&P 500 up 39

Two American economists, Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims were awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics “for their empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy” the Nobel Committee announced today. Sargent is a professor at New York University and Sims a professor at Princeton.

TECH NEWS:

NETFLIX reversed course and announced today that they were completely abandoning plans announced last month to split their company into two, separating online video streaming from DVD-by-mail. From Netflix CEO Reed Hastings in a blog post this morning, “It is clear that for many of our members two websites would make things more difficult, so we are going to keep Netflix as one place to go for streaming and DVDs. This means no change: one website, one account, one password… in other words, no Qwikster. While the July price change was necessary, we are now done with price changes.” 

FACEBOOK announced today its long-awaited iPad App. From Facebook Software Engineer Leon Dubinsky in a blog post this afternoon, “With the iPad app, you get the full Facebook experience, right at your fingertips. It’s a fun way to keep up with friends, share photos, chat and more.” Features include finger scroll, larger photo display, easier navigation and more features. 

APPLE says pre-orders for the iPhone 4S have broken the company’s previous single-day sales record. Over 1 million orders were placed in the first 24 hours, the company says. Both Sprint and AT&T say that they have sold out of the iPhone 4S for now and Verizon says that it will ship phones beginning on October 20th, according to the reports. 

THREE THINGS TO WATCH THIS WEEK:

1/ In Congress, watch to see how quickly the House and Senate can ratify the three trade agreements formally submitted by the White House last week. These agreements, for Panama, Colombia and South Korea, were first negotiated in 2007 but finalized earlier this month. They now face near-certain passage this week and, in the case of South Korea, it will be a welcome gift for President Lee Myung-bak who comes to Washington at the end of this week for a formal State Visit. Lee will address a joint session of Congress on Thursday and travel with President Obama on Friday to Detroit, Michigan. A State Dinner will be held Thursday night.

2/ In the Middle East, watch developments in Syria, Egypt and Libya- three countries at the heart of the Arab Spring (or as NBC’s Chief International Correspondent Richard Engel described last week, the “Arab Awakening”) which saw new violence and instability over the weekend. At least 31 people were killed in violence in Syria on Sunday, prompting the White House to release a statement condemning the killings. Today, President Obama conferred with European leaders on the situation. In Egypt, sectarian violence- reportedly the worse since the overthrow of the Mubarak government- are threatening upcoming initial elections. And in Libya, rebel forces continue their advance and assault of one of the last Gadaffi-government strongholds, Surt.

3/ Back to politics. Watch as campaigns at all levels release their third quarter finance and disclosure reports this week. Of course, watch tomorrow night’s debate for the positioning of the Republican presidential race. The candidates will meet again next Tuesday night, 10/18, for their eighth debate, across the country in Las Vegas.

Tomorrow in THE EVENING REPORT, we’ll provide a full recap of the New Hampshire debate

Shana Tovah!

TOP STORY: Today the Justice Department formally requested that the Supreme Court decide a case determining the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act and consider the ruling of the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals which found the law’s individual mandate section to be unconstitutional. The Court has until January to decide whether it will hear the case- and issue its ruling by next June, which would make the decision a major factor in next year’s presidential election. The Justice Department said in a statement, “Throughout history, there have been similar challenges to other landmark legislation such as the Social Security Act, the Civil Rights Act, and the Voting Rights Act, and all of those challenges failed. We believe the challenges to Affordable Care Act — like the one in the 11th Circuit — will also ultimately fail and that the Supreme Court will uphold the law.”

2012 PRIMARY CALENDAR: Republican National Committee officials are scrambling tonight after an early-morning report by CNN that Florida was about to announce a change in the date of its presidential primary next year- moving it forward to January 31st. Such a move would violate Republican Party rules, and put Florida as the first state to vote. As a result, Iowa and New Hampshire (and likely South Carolina and Nevada)- the four states sanctioned by the party to have the first primaries and caucuses in the nation- would move their elections forward- with the Iowa caucuses potentially being held in early January. They are currently slated to be held in early February. There are reports tonight that Florida Republicans may be easing from this action- and may instead agree to hold their primary on February 21st- still ahead of the planned March 6th “Super Tuesday” primaries but after the two traditional first states. Saturday is the date set by the RNC for states to finalize the dates for their elections. 

IF FLORIDA moves its date forward, and New Hampshire and Iowa follow suit- the Iowa Caucuses could be held in early January just days into the new year. This means we might be close to within 90 days of the first-in-the-nation caucus. The election that seemed to be getting off to a slow start may in fact be moving along at a much faster pace- which makes it all the more unlikely, and closing in on impossible, that another candidate could enter the race and be viable.

HUNTSMAN: A FOX News poll out today has the former Utah Governor sitting at 4%- still extremely low, but enough to make him likely qualify for the next round of debates. Huntsman had been trailing at 1% in the average of recent polls, which would disqualify him from the planned October 11th and October 18th debates- however, with this higher poll number, it appears he will be invited to attend

CAIN: ”“Today, I could not support Rick Perry as the nominee for a host of reasons…Him being soft on securing the border is one of the reasons. I feel very strongly about the need to secure the border for real, the need to enforce the laws that are already there, the need to promote the path to citizenship that’s already there,” candidate Herman Cain said today on CNN. Cain was the surprise victor of Saturday’s straw poll in Florida and has been gaining in recent polls as his candidacy may be poised to move from the third tier to the second, eclipsing the position of Michele Bachmann, who once enjoyed enthusiastic support

PERRY: Texas Governor Rick Perry, who campaigned with his wife on the trail today in Iowa, now says he apologies for his word choice in answering a question about illegal immigration and the DREAM Act at last week’s Republican presidential candidates debate. Perry accused rival Mitt Romney of “not having a heart,” Perry’s statement:  “I probably chose a poor word to explain that for people who don’t want their state to be giving tuition to illegal aliens, illegal immigrants in this country — that’s their call and I respect that. I was probably a bit over-passionate by using that word and it was inappropriate.”

CAPITOL TERROR PLOT: 26-year-old Rezwan Ferdaus, a US Citizen, was arrested today on charges of conspiring with Al-Qaeda to attack and blow up the US Capitol Building and the Pentagon with remotely-controlled aircraft. Ferdaus was discovered as part of a FBI sting operation. Roll Call reports, “Undercover FBI employees delivered C-4 plastic explosives, three grenades and six fully automatic AK-47 assault rifles today to Ferdaus, who had already acquired a remote-controlled F-86 Sabre. According to the affidavit, Ferdaus opened a PayPal account under a false identity to buy the aircraft, which the unmarried, childless man claimed he was purchasing for his son.”

GUANTANAMO TRIBUNAL: Abd al-Nashiri, the chief suspect held at the US Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba accused of the 2000 attack of the USS Cole in Yemen will face a military tribunal and, if convicted, could face the death penalty, the Justice and Defense Departments announced today. A trial must begin within 30 days- and this will be watched very closely as the Administration continues to operate the military prison after having pledged to close it within one year of taking office

WALL STREET ended its three-day winning streak, with the Dow ending the day down over 1.5%. Also today- Finland’s parliament gave approval to the creation of a Eurozone bailout fund. Now 7 of the 17 nations have yet to ratify the measure- with Slovakia expected to be the next country where deep debate could delay the fast-track approval regulators had hoped to achieve. 

• DOW down 180
• NASDAQ down 55
• S&P 500 down 24

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We are building premium products and offering them at non-premium prices.”

TOP STORY: Saudi King Abdullah announced today that women will be eligible to participate in national elections in 2015- a major reform accomplishment and a surprising announcement that comes a few days before municipal elections (women will still be excluded from participating this year). 

Tommy Vietor (WH National Security Council Spokesperson) Statement tonight, “We welcome Saudi King Abdullah’s announcement today that women will serve as full members of the Shura Council in the next session, and will have the right to participate in future municipal elections.  These reforms recognize the significant contributions women in Saudi Arabia make to their society and will offer them new ways to participate in the decisions that affect their lives and communities.  The announcements made today represent an important step foward in expanding the rights of women in Saudi Arabia, and we support King Abdullah and the people of Saudi Arabia as they undertake these and other reforms.”

NETFLIX NEWS: To be announced tomorrow (and reported in the New York Times tonight)- Netflix has entered into a deal with the animation company Dreamworks on a major movie streaming contract. Says Dreamworks CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg, “This is a game-changing deal.” It comes after weeks of bad press for Netflix- after announcing an increase in its pricing structure, the company split its streaming and DVD-by-mail rental business and its stock price has lost over half its value. The deal is thought to be a major victory for embattled CEO Reed Hastings who has now positioned Netflix as a leader in the online movie streaming industry.  

WEEKEND NEWS RECAP;

RUSSIAN PRESIDENT Dmitry Medvedev announced on Saturday that he will step aside in national elections in March 2012, clearing the way for former President (and current Prime Minister) Vladimir Putin to resume his old position. 

AMERICAN HIKERS Joshua Fattal and Shane Bauer arrived in New York City this morning, days after being released from Iranian custody and after first being examined and de-briefed in the Arab nation of Oman. They later held a news conference in New York.

2012: It was a big weekend in the 2012 Republican primary process. After a weak performance at last Thursday’s debate in Orlando, the Rick Perry campaign has struggled to convince supporters and observers of its competence and strategy for getting back on track. After spending Friday and Saturday in Florida, Perry had a very weak showing in a CPAC straw poll held on Saturday (which was won by third-tier candidate, former Godfather Pizza President Hermain Cain). This has led to a new round of open speculation that further candidates might enter the Republican primary field, with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at the top of the would-be lists. 

Some thoughts on what is going on here: 

1/ Republicans are restless. A fractured party is trying to coalesce around a challenger to President Obama but there is a wide gulf of dissatisfaction that stretches across the party with every current candidate. The main drivers of this uneasiness? Tea Party Republicans, who led the party to victory in 2010 but who are not satisfied with Romney, and have thus far shifted their early support from Michele Bahmann to Rick Perry and are now on the fence again. 

2/ Time is running out- or has run out. With filing deadlines in November, the institutional realities of ballot access will soon be the final impediment to new entrants, but the example of Rick Perry over the last six weeks shows the difficulty of starting a campaign on the fly- building a network of support, a financial base, name recognition, and significant preparation to go toe-to-toe in highly-watched and high-stakes televised debates. 

3/ The media pressure is greater than any other time, even 2008. If the last two presidential campaigns didn’t prove it, there is a very real media reality of running for president that a successful candidate must recognize and adapt their campaign around. An outsider/ “Mr. Smith Goes To Washington” campaign doesn’t work anymore. It takes years of preparation that only a skilled candidate (for example, Obama ‘08) can learn the first time around. The only current Republican candidate who has this experience and savvy is Mitt Romney, who will likely to on to become the nominee. For more, see Mark Halperin’s “The Way To Win” (2007) and “Game Change” (2009). The media is driving both of the narratives above- and just as it was the media that gave Perry a tremendous wind at his back in his first few weeks, it can (and will) be the media who will deflate his candidacy if he does not step up. 

FLORIDA STRAW POLL RESULTS (SAT 09/24):
1. Herman Cain, 37.1% 
2. Rick Perry, 15.4% 
3. Mitt Romney, 14% 
4. Ron Paul, 10.4% 
5. Rick Santorum, 10.9% 
6. Newt Gingrich, 8.4% 
7. Jon Huntsman, 2.3% 
8. Michele Bachmann, 1.5%

MACKINAC MICHIGAN STRAW POLL RESULTS (Sun 09/25):
1. Mitt Romney 51%
2. Rick Perry 17%
3. Herman Cain 9%
4. Ron Paul 8%
5. Michele Bhachmann 4%
6. Newt Gingrich 4%
7. Rick Santorum 3%
8. Jon Huntsman 2%

PRESIDENT OBAMA is spending the night in San Jose, California, where earlier he attended a DNC fundraiser. The President started the day by flying to Seattle, Washington for more fundraising events. Last evening, he headlined a dinner of the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation in Washington. Tomorrow, the President conducts a first-ever LinkedIn Town Hall Meeting in Mountain View, CA. He will remain on the West Coast through Wednesday. 

THREE THINGS TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEK:

1/ Can Congress come to a deal on a continuing resolution and avert a government shutdown on Friday night? Related- can an agreement be reached to provided additional funding for FEMA before funds run out as early as Tuesday to prevent disaster-related payments from being delayed?

2/ After a tumultuous week on Wall Street, are there any signs that the anxiety on Wall Street- and in other global financial markets- is easing. In particular, attention continues to be on Europe as central bankers continue to work on a solution to the Greek debt crisis. In early Monday trading, Asian markets are lower- with the Nikkei already down nearly 2%

3/ Watch for a lot of “Supreme Court preview stories”- one week from tomorrow, on the first Monday in October, the  new Supreme Court term will open. It could be one of the most contentious- and significant- terms in recent history with health care and gay marriage cases possibly coming before the High Court. Also this week, watch to see if the Justice Department goes ahead and makes a formal request that the Court take up the issue of the health reform law’s constitutionality.