Interests: Politics, Government, Media, Transportation, Space, Social Media, Civic Engagement, Washington, DC Following: The Obama Presidency, Decision 2012, The 112th Congress Work: myImpact.org- a non-profit working at the intersection of social media & citizen engagement
Catching Elephant is a theme by Andy Taylor
Mike Allen: Why We’re Stuck
Mike Allen is POLITICO’s Chief White House Correspondent and one of the most well sourced reporters in DC. His analysis below, from this morning’s Playbook, on why we are where we are (note this is all about politics & political positioning):
Why we’re stuck: President Obama and Speaker Boehner - one facing reelection, the other on the back nine of his legislative career — want to do a big deal, and would rightly get credit for a historic accomplishment. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (the #2 House GOP leader) and House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (the #3) - on the front nine of their Capitol Hill careers — do not want a grand bargain, and are convinced their rank and file does not support even modest tax hikes.
(Source: politico.com)
Yesterday’s meeting was the president’s team presenting their proposal — the other two meetings that we discussed was our view of the Biden proposal and the Biden talks, so I was very much in listen and receive mode. The Speaker is the one who responded to the president’s proposals — countering what it was that we had proposed. That was the difference of the meetings
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in a statement to The Hill on why he did not participate by saying anything in Thursday’s deficit meeting at The White House
More on GOP Scenarios
From PLAYBOOK this morning, four possible GOP scenarios (all less-than-desirable for The Republicans):
- Force a default. (McConnell & WSJ editorial page saying this would be disastrous)- unclear who gets (or shares more of) the political blame for a default- but guessing the Republicans would get a good amount of it
- Accept revenues- some revenues- in the final deal…and do it sooner for a 4:1 spending:revenue ratio rather than later, when it will likely be 3:1
- Accept a smaller package of cuts that does not reach the 1 dollar of spending cuts for 1 dollar of debt ceiling increase level that the Speaker has been talking about for a while
- Adopt some version of the McConnell plan which, when it was released on Tuesday, was attacked by the far Right of the Republican Party
(Source: politico.com)
Almost nothing that Cantor has said, in or out of the room, has been true. His main goal seems to be scoring political points — not against Democrats, but against the Speaker of his own party. It’s pretty amazing, and kind of scary.
Top Democratic Aide, as quoted in this morning’s Playbook
(Source: politico.com)
Hawkings Lays Out Three Scenarios for GOP Negotiators
CQ’s David Hawkings has laid out three scenarios that (as of now) the GOP negotiating leadership could consider. Hawkings reports that the President currently has the upper hand. The next series of debt talks begin at 4:15/4:30pm EDT.
- Agree with the current position of 4:1 ratio spending cuts to revenue increases, before the President & Democrats likely move to a 3:1 ratio later in the negotiations, closer to the deadline, when they have more leverage
- Return to a 1:1 ratio of spending cuts to debt ceiling increase
- Adopt the McConnell plan (which Boehner may be prepared to do, but which Cantor likely will not)
Expect significant media pressure for readouts following today’s meeting as the emerging narrative is of an impasse, talks breaking down and drama in the room
Eric, don’t call my bluff,” the president said, warning Cantor that he would take his case “to the American people.” He told Cantor that no other president — not Ronald Reagan, the president said — would sit through such negotiations.
Account from POLITICO on last night’s critical debt meeting- which apparently featured fireworks from Cantor
(Source: politico.com)
Currently, there is not a single debt limit proposal that can pass the House of Representatives, but I believe the path forward is to focus on what we can agree upon, and though it doesn’t go as far as our budget, House Republicans can likely agree with the general spending cuts and entitlement changes in the ‘big deal’ proposed by the President.
Eric Cantor statement Wednesday that set the stage for a dramatic day in which the House Majority Leader took center stage
(Source: majorityleader.house.gov)
Debt Negotiations Update: Positioning
It is a dramatic week in Washington as negotiations on raising the debt ceiling and an accompanying reduction package continue. Both sides are playing the messaging game.
Two tidbits are emerging today that are important to consider:
The White House believes that are leading the argument right now. They’ve deployed a bully pulpit strategy. Yesterday, the President held his second news conference in two weeks. Today, he is giving a television interview to CBS’ Scott Pelley.
More on the White House strategy in POLITICO.
Meanwhile, the Republicans have a new message today: that any vote to raise the debt ceiling is, by its very nature, “shared sacrifice.”
This argument seems to be a new low for the GOP and comes as the chief spokesperson for the negotiations shifts from Speaker John Boehner to Majority Leader Eric Cantor.
Again, POLITICO is all over this story.
The next White House meeting is scheduled for 3:45 this afternoon and leaders are expected to meet each day this week an into next weekend.
“It’s clear to all of us how big this spending problem is. Congress keeps voting for programs we can’t pay for. But look, entitlement cuts aren’t easy for us to vote for either. Our guys aren’t cheerleading about cutting entitlements,” Boehner said.
“Your guys already voted for them [in the Paul Ryan budget],” Obama responded.
“Excuse us for trying to lead,” Boehner shot back.
“With John Boehner Bailing, Eric Cantor Ascends As Lead Voice,” POLITICO 7/12/11
(Source: politico.com)
