The Golden Report

6 DAYS UNTIL IOWA (28 delegates)
13 DAYS UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
24 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

TOP STORY- “Romney, Santorum Rising in Iowa”- The Washington Post’s Amy Gardner on the ground in Des Moines-

“There was evidence of growing intensity on both sides of the argument [today] as the candidates crisscrossed the state on a frenzied day of campaigning.

Against the backdrop of persistent questions about his conservative credentials, Romney drew enthusiastic crowds as he rumbled across eastern Iowa in a bus making the case that he is the most electable Republican in the field.

The support lost by Gingrich, whose front-runner status made him the subject of a barrage of negative TV ads, flowed to other candidates, notably Santorum

In one bit of good news for Gingrich on Wednesday, his campaign announced that it had raised $9 million in the past quarter. That is enough money to allow him to respond to some of the negative attacks and continue his campaign into later contests.

After months of being near the bottom of the standings, San­torum has surged, becoming the latest symbol of the Republican electorate’s continuing search for a satisfactory candidate. His new statewide radio ad, “Unite,” promotes his record on abortion and dubs him the “one consistent conservative” in the race.”

GAME CHANGE: With six days to go before voting begins, ROMNEY and SANTORUM are rising,GINGRICH is falling, PAUL is in a fight for second and PERRY and BACHMANN are fighting to stay relevant.

WHAT DROVE THE DAY: A new poll from CNN that found MITT ROMNEY leading the field in Iowa, with RON PAUL second and RICK SANTORUM third. 

Romney 25%

Paul 22%

Santorum 16%

Gingrich 14%

Perry 11%

Bachmann 9%

Huntsman 1%

ALSO FROM IOWA, A PPP Poll that finds RON PAUL with a four point lead over ROMNEY

Paul 24%

Romney 20%

Gingrich 13%

Bachmann 11%

Perry 10%

Santorum 10%

Huntsman 4%

GALLUP NATIONAL TRACKING- Gingrich and Romney are tied

Gingrich 25%

Romney 25%

Paul 11%

Perry 8%

Bachmann 5%

Santorum 4%

Huntsman 1%

Meanwhile, a CNN survey from New Hampshire also released this afternoon shows MITT ROMNEYwith a rock solid 27-point lead OVER RON PAUL in the first primary state.

THE WASHINGTON MACHINE- In what must be a nominee for best campaign ad of the 2012 cycle to date, today the PAUL campaign released a new 30-second attack ad aiming at both Gingrich and Romney. 

LEADING POLITICO TONIGHT, “Mitt Looks to Lock Down Iowa”

“Buoyed by internal polling and a CNN survey released Wednesday afternoon that showed Newt Gingrich falling to fourth place in Iowa, with Ron Paul in second and Rick Santorum climbing to third, Romney told reporters in a deli here that he couldn’t think of a reason why he won’t win the state.

“I can’t imagine, except that there are other good people running, and they’ve got good campaigns,” he said. “I like the fact that my support is building and the momentum is positive, but I can’t tell you where it’s going to end up.”

Romney will spend the next three days in the state intensifying his focus in Iowa at a moment when the state, and possibly an early wrap-up of the nomination, are now tantalizingly in reach.

He’s nearly 30 points ahead in his New Hampshire stronghold, which will vote the week after Iowa.Wins in both will make it increasingly hard for his rivals to continue their campaigns.”

AS NATIONAL JOURNAL’S ETHAN KLAPPER ASKED TODAY...if Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire, how long before the GOP nomination is completely locked up? Developments so far this week seem far removed from discussion, as recently as this past weekend, of a prolonged primary season and even a contested convention.

BREAKING TONIGHT FROM THE BATTLE FOR THIRD IN IOWA…Michele Bachmann’s Iowa campaign manager, Kent Sorenson, has resigned and is now working for RON PAUL.

The latest from POLITICO’s Alexander Burns

“Sorenson made the announcement at a Paul rally with veterans here in Des Moines, telling the crowd: “I believe we’re at a turning point in this campaign.”

Calling the decision to abandon Bachmann a painful one, Sorenson said he felt obligated to join Paul as the “Republican establishment” tries to undermine his campaign.

“I thought it was my duty to come to his aid, just like he came to my aid during my Senate race, which was a very nasty race,” Sorenson said, pledging to go all-out for Paul over the next few days.

To cheers from the crowd, he continued: “We’re going to take Ron Paul all the way to the White House.”

SO WHO WON THE DAY? Alex says it’s Rick Santorum.

“At the start of the month, Rick Santorum needed the following things to happen in order for him to be competitive in Iowa: Newt Gingrich needed to fade. Evangelicals needed to move toward his campaign. Then voters needed to see some tangible sign of momentum, in order to speed up the tortoise-like pace of his Iowa campaign.

The former Pennsylvania senator has now gotten at least a dose of all three ingredients. Gingrich’s campaign has lost ground in every recent Iowa poll. Santorum won the endorsement of a number of high-profile Christian conservatives, including the head of The Family Leader. And today, Santorum placed third in an Iowa poll for the first time, running fairly close behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in a CNN/Time magazine survey.”

DEPARTMENT OF MAKING THINGS WORSE- Newt Gingrich today attempted to explain his March cruise in Greece by saying it gave him a better understanding of the financial crisis that began in Greece and now threatens the European economy

“Ironically, being in Greece during the Greek crisis was very helpful and gave me a much deeper perspective of how hard this was going to be,” he said.

TOP BELTWAY TALKER IN THE MORNING- Helene Cooper in the New York Times- White House Memo: “Bipartisan Agreement: Obama Isn’t Schmoozing”

“Mr. Obama, in general, does not go out of his way to play the glad-handing, ego-stroking presidential role. While he does sometimes offer a ride on Air Force One to a senator or member of Congress, more often than not, he keeps Congress and official Washington at arm’s length, spending his down time with a small — and shrinking — inner circle of aides and old friends.

He typically golfs with a trio of mid- to low-level staff members little known outside the West Wing. He does not spend much time at Camp David, the retreat other presidents have used to woo Washington. His social life runs toward evenings playing Taboo with old friends and their families, Wii video games with his wife and daughters or basketball with Robert Wolf, a banker and the rare new best friend Mr. Obama has acquired since entering politics. He vacations with friends from Chicago on Martha’s Vineyard in August and in Hawaii at Christmas.

This week, for example, Mr. Obama is ensconced in the protective bubble of the Secret Service. With him are his closest outside-the-Beltway-friends, including Eric Whitaker, a Chicago doctor, and two of Mr. Obama’s Hawaii friends from Punahou School: Mike Ramos, a businessman,and Robert Titcomb, a commercial fisherman whom Mr. Obama has stuck by despite his arrest in April on suspicion of soliciting a prostitute. Mr. Obama bolted from Washington last Friday barely an hour after he had signed legislation extending the payroll tax cut after a grinding fight with House Republicans whose result is widely viewed as a big win for him. His relationship with Washington insiders is described by members of both parties as “remote,” “distant” and “perfunctory.”

KEY QUOTE: “This is not a Lincoln bedroom guy,” said James Carville, the Democratic strategist, referring to the guest bedroom at the White House where President Bill Clinton put up supporters and donors. “In fact, he’s the anti-Lincoln bedroom guy. He doesn’t seem to relish, or even like, having politicians around.”

WALL STREET- from CNBC- ”Stocks End Near Lows, S&P Negative for 2011”

• DOW down 140
• NASDAQ down 35
• S&P 500 down 16

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TOP STORY: GREECE DEBT CRISIS- A conference call this evening Europe-time with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel was meant as a sign of greater European support for the Greek government, after new austerity measures announced today by Greek prime minister, George Papandreou. No new proposals were discussed. This show of support from France and Germany was meant to calm European markets, which closed higher today. 

Optimism permeated to WALL STREET on Wednesday:

Dow up 140 to 11,246
NASDAQ up 40
S&P 500 up 15

ELECTION RESULTS from last night’s special elections: 

NY-09 (Weiner): Bob Turner (R) 53% - David Welprin (D) 47%
Note: Weiner won the race against Turner in 2010, 61%-39%

NV-02 (Heller): Mark Amodei (R) 58% - Kate Marshall (D) 36%

The defeat in two special elections is, predictably, being seen as referendum on the President. Republicans will welcome their two new members to Washington tomorrow. When they are sworn in, Republicans will control the lower chamber by a 242-192 majority.

DECISION 2012: 1/ Elizabeth Warren, the Harvard professor who helped to establish the Consumer Regulatory Protection Bureau, officially announced today that she will seek the Democratic Senatorial nomination in Massachusetts to challenge Sen. Scott Brown. 2/ Rep. Dennis Kucinich will run for re-election in Ohio, he has announced, despite the possibility that he will challenge an incumbent Democrat as a result of redistricting. There had been speculation that Kucinich would change his residency and run in the state of Washington. 

PRESIDENT OBAMA continued stumping for his American Jobs Act today in North Carolina. This as even some members of his own party are beginning to go public with their dissent to the President’s plan, one-week old tomorrow. Today Pennsylvania Democratic Senator Bob Casey went on-record saying, “I think the American people are very skeptical of big pieces of legislation.” A new poll by Bloomberg released today, and taken over last weekend, showed Americans just as skeptical that the plan will actually create jobs and lower unemployment.

TOMORROW MORNING the Deficit Reduction Supercommittee goes behind-closed-doors for a breakfast their meeting- their first non-public (and disclosed) meeting.

REMEMBER THE DEBT DEAL that created the Supercommittee in the first place? Well, one of the components of allowing the debt ceiling to increase was that Congress would have the opportunity to vote up and down on a resolution of disapproval. Last week (immediately after the President’s address to a joint session of Congress), the Senate voted, and did not approve the Resolution. Today, the House- in a highly symbolic and deeply political vote- approved the resolution. “Though 174 Republicans voted to support the August deal that allowed the debt ceiling to rise, 228 voted against the president’s action to actually lift it.” the Washington Post reports. All 181 Democrats voted in favor of the President’s action, even though there were 7 dissenters in August. 

UNITED AIRLINES FLIGHT 685 encountered trouble shortly before takeoff today at Dulles International Airport. Reports of smoke prompted the captain to stop the plan on the runway and deploy the emergency chutes. All 179 passengers and 6 crew members evacuated the plane safely, with only minor injuries reported. Supreme Court Associate Justice RUTH BADER GINSBURG was among the passengers who were en route to San Francisco.

FACEBOOK today unveiled a new feature..SUBSCRIPTIONS..that allows a user to share their content publicly, to a world-wide audience, without them specifically requesting to be friends with you..in a similar way to GOOGLE + that was unveiled earlier this year. “Facebook says the feature will appeal to anyone looking to reach a broader audience, like journalists, artists, and political figures. To start sharing your own posts publicly, head to the new tab beneath your profile photo that says Subscriptions. Click it, and you’ll have the option to broadcast your public updates to anyone who has subscribed to you. Note that you’ll only syndicate updates that are marked Public; updates shared with Friend Lists won’t be seen by your subscribers,” TechCrunch reports. Also reported to be coming soon.the ability to update Twitter..from Facebook.

NASA today announced the design of a new SPACE LAUNCH SYSTEM that will eventually carry humans into orbit in deep space. According to NASA, “The Space Launch System will be NASA’s first exploration-class vehicle since the Saturn V took American astronauts to the moon over 40 years ago. With its superior lift capability, the SLS will expand our reach in the solar system and allow us to explore cis-lunar space, near-Earth asteroids, Mars and its moons and beyond” Of course, this new system- and the entire space program- is dependent on Congressional approval of the space agency’s budget.
WHAT TO WATCH TOMORROW: President Obama will award the Medal of Honor- then nation’s highest military award- to Marine Corporal Dakota Meyer, 21-years-old, who is credited with using his own life to save the lies of 36 US and Afghan troops. Over the weekend, a White House staffer called Meyer to discuss arrangements for tomorrow’s ceremony. In the call, Meyer asked if he could have a beer with President Obama. Tonight, the two met in the White House to have a beer. Full Medal of Honor Citation. 

FINALLY- Michaela Salahi is back! The reality TV star perhaps best known for her title as a White House Gate Crasher at a 2009 state dinner for the Indian Prime Minister, was reported missing by her husband- Tareq. The Sheriff’s Office in Warren County, Virginia was alerted- and even held a press conference concerning the matter today. Then, it was reported that Michaela isn’t missing after all..in fact, she is in Memphis, Tennessee with the leader guitarist for the band Journey, Neal Schon.

POST-DEBATE EDITION

Tonight in Tampa, Florida: the Fifth Republican Presidential Candidates Debate. Candidates Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney & Rick Santorum shared the stage for the two-hour debate which just concluded. 

THE HIGHLIGHTS:

This was RICK PERRY’s debate- to win or lose. And he started the night on home turf- with a favorable Tea Party audience. But the debate quickly turned into a pile-on with nearly all of the other candidates- most especially Romney, Santorum, Bachmann and Huntsman- attacking Perry on his record and past statements. This debate will be remembered because MITT ROMNEY worked his way to come out on top, especially with his answers on the budget and immigration reform. 

MICHELE BACHMANN again struggled to share the stage with the two front-runners but approached this debate with a clear attack strategy: against Perry, not Romney. 

RICK SANTOROUM also got in several one-liners tonight by going after Perry- although he had a fair amount of criticism for Romney as well. Trying to position himself as a choice between Romney and Perry, Santorum showed that he still may be a strong vice-presidential contender or, at the least, a ‘must-get’ surrogate endorsement

JON HUNTSMAN struggled to break through again tonight. His most memorable line might have been an awkward attack on Perry, causing his border security policy “treasonous” 
and the AUDIENCE who last week in California applauded Rick Perry’s record on executions, applauded tonight at a hypothetical question about a 30-year old in a coma without health insurance and whether he should be allowed to die. 

TER’s ORDER OF DEBATE WINNERS: Romney, Perry, Santorum, Gingrich, Bachmann, Huntsman, Cain, Paul

BEFORE THE DEBATE- the big 2012 news of the day: former presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty today endorsed Mitt Romney; while once-rumored candidate Bobby Jindal endorsed Rick Perry. These are the first two major surrogate endorsements of the cycle.

THE REST OF THE DAYS NEWS

LAYOFFS: Bank of America today announced plans for 30,000 employee layoffs over the next several years. It was just last month when the Bank announced a $5 payment from Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett. The announcement is the largest for a US company this year, surpassing Merck’s planned 13,000 layoffs. 

JOBS: President Obama today formally unveiled the American Jobs Act, a 233-page proposal, in legislative language, built off of his primetime Address to Congress last week. The nearly $450 billion in new spending is paid for by eliminating tax loopholes- including for corporate jet owners- and limiting tax deductions, including those for charitable contributions and home mortgage payments 

ON WALL STREET: The Dow ended the day above 11,000 again, up 68.99 points to 11,061. The NASDAQ was up 27 points and the S&P 500 closed the first trading day of the new week up 8 points.

IN FRANCE: An explosion at the Marcole Nuclear Site today is being called a “an industrial accident, not a nuclear accident” by company officials. One person was killed and four were injured in the explosion, which is currently under investigation but that did not, according to government officials, leak radiation

NEED THE KNOW TOMORROW: Inside-the-beltway political junkies will be tuned into two special House elections- in New York’s 9th Congressional District and Nevada’s 2nd District. In New York, the seat once held by resigned Congressman Anthony Weiner was thought to be safely Democratic, but recently polling shows an extremely competitive race. Republicans are now expected to pick-up that seat and in the Nevada race for the seat once held by now Senator Dean Heller, who was appointed to fill the remainder of Sen. John Ensign’s term. Ensign resigned in disgrace in May.

AND FINALLY: NBC Universal announced the name of a new once-weekly primetime news magazine to be anchored by NBC Nightly News Anchor Brian Williams. “Rock Center with Brian Williams” will debut later this fall and feature talent and reporting from the news devision of NBC.

As the 2012 presidential race begins to shape up, just like clockwork, there is a transient effort afoot to run a third-party candidate in the election. A group calling itself “Americans Elect” audaciously plans to place this candidate on the ballot, behind Democrats and Republicans, in all 50 states in the 2012 election. Launched with a glowing endorsement by New York Times columnist Tom Friedman, who has been secretly backing such an audacious and unachievable idea for years, this non-party political party has been registering to get on the ballot in states around the country for the past year.

 But the fact is, America simply doesn’t need Americans Elect- not now, not ever.  

Americans Elect is formed and funded by a group of disgruntled Republicans who have long since found that their Republican party has left them for a more conservative extremist group.  They came together in total secrecy and hesitate to reveal their donors, ultimate objectives or underlying motives. Sometimes called “RINOs”, these are the same people who benefited from the policies their party implemented during the Reagan years- that made them rich while bankrupting America- but who now find that they prefer hiding under the disguise of “independent” and “third party” labels.  

 But they still have all the traits of Republicans:

• They use the word “America” as if it’s their own. As if speaking out against them is in some way “Anti-American” They use language like they are reverting to “America’s oldest values” and speak in absolutist terms when referencing the Constitution- as if its text as written over 220 years ago somehow still applies to the America we find ourselves living in today. Worst of all, they have picked as their leader a veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. A hero, no doubt, but someone who has now taken a 180-degree turn into partisan politics. It’s pure cover and a tired tactic; an attempt to defuse criticism lobbied at a misguided political organization. It’s “with us or against us” – the typical Republican extremist position.
•  Americans Elect, while supposedly “all-partisan” is aligning itself with the misguided popular belief that deficit reduction is the most urgent pressing national priority. But talk to an economist, not a pollster. It is clear that our economy needs to grow and that efforts should be paid to creating jobs and increasing aggregate demand. Republicans are opposed to this and encouraging deficit reduction, now. Democrats support fiscally responsible growth, with investment in the short term and spending constraints over ten years. But groups like Americans Elect, and its policy counter-part No Labels, are putting themselves on the side of immediate spending cuts, which would be devastating to our economic recovery. Although, to their credit, they are also advocating a “balanced approach” over the long-term, while falling to produce specifics, such as saying the Bush Tax Cuts should not be extended.
• Their leadership and advisors in no way reflect the rich and vibrant patchwork quilt of American culture. There is no one who exemplifies sacrifice. No minorities. Few women. No Native-American or LGBT Americans. Single mothers. Factory workers. Farmers or ranchers. All vibrant constituencies that have no representation in this “new” party. And just like the Republican Party, they do not believe that these groups who have been disadvantaged should be given special attention and voice.

Americans Elect claims we are in a unique moment in American history. But nothing could be father from the truth.

They claim we suffer from exceptional political polarization and division. Again, even modern American history tells a different story.  

Worse of all, they boldly declare that “Washington is broken” – a catchy phrase that has probably been used by any politician ever to seek elected office. But again, it’s an empty complaint- not backed up by substance or analytical critique.

They claim public opinion polling is on their side. But ask any American the kind of phrases they’re testing (“Do you wish politicians could work better together?” “Would you be open to more options in electing the President”) and you will always get an affirmative response.

America does not need a third party. That’s not how our electoral system is set up. It’s not the way it’s ever been done and it’s not the way it ever will be.

What is true is that the level of obstructionism by the Republican Party has become more extreme in recent years, as that Party has undergone an inner-revolt and rightward slide. Again, these episodes are not unique in American political history. And eventually, over time, the system that has survived for so long corrects itself.

But instead of addressing this obvious and specific problem, Americans Elect is saying the entire political system is broken- that the 44 presidential elections have been held in this country to be wrong- and that they somehow have been empowered to come up with an alternative.  

If they really cared about our country, they would focus their energy and money on a specific, fixable, problem.

One simple action: filibuster reform in the United States Senate, would allow for the legislative branch to function more efficiently. If you talk to any Congressional expert, this is where they will tell you the focus of any “reform initiative” should be.

But many Americans do not understand how the filibuster works. If Americans Elect were to spend its millions on a public education campaign highlighting why the filibuster was created (to allow for minority party representation) and how it has now been hijacked by the Republican Party (look at the number of nominees, executive or judicial, that have been confirmed by the Senate for President Obama compared with other presidents), then a constituency could be built to pressure Congress to make appropriate changes.

But, of course, filibuster reform isn’t attractive enough. Nor is running candidates at the state or local level.

So we’re left to wonder- what is it that Americans Elect really wants to do? In the name of democracy, they’re wandering down a dangerous path that could end up seriously harming our nation more than it ever could help it- deepening divisions that already exist- and resulting in damaging unintended consequences.

Consider the largest. Let’s say Americans Elect is able to get on the ballot in enough states in 2012. [One note: when they claim they have received XX number of petition signatures they leave out the amount of money, likely $10 or more, that each signature cost the organization to collect). And let’s say that the 2012 election is a close race between President Obama and the Republican Nominee. If the number of those who vote on the Americans Elect ballot for a third-party candidate, who would otherwise vote for President Obama if no third-party was running, is enough to make up the vote gap between the President and the Republican, then the Americans Elect candidate will act as a spoiler. And if this happens in a crucial state- like Florida or Ohio, or several small states like Iowa or Indiana, then it could cost the President re-election.

Sounds far-fetched? It’s not. It’s what happened in 2000 in Florida where Ralph Nader, running a campaign on the Green Party, took votes away from Al Gore that could have decidedly handed him the Presidency, pre-recount.

For this simple reason alone- and that in the consequential times in which we live nothing like this should even be a remote possibility- Americans Elect is alarming and concerning.

At its core, Americans Elect is a disappointment of resources that could much better be directed to more productive means. We can only take solace in knowing that just like nearly every third party initiatives in the past, it too will fail. And then we can all come together and get to work on ensuring that the American Dream- of equality, justice and opportunity- is fulfilled for all Americans today and transferred evenly to the next generation. 

The unofficial kick-off to the 2012 presidential nominating season was held Saturday in Ames, Iowa. the Ames Straw Poll. 

IOWA STRAW POLL RESULTS, via Des Moines Register: 

Bachmann: 28.55% (4,823 votes) 

Ron Paul: 27.65% (4,671 votes) 

Pawlenty: 13.57% (2,293 votes) 

Santorum: 9.81% (1,657 votes) 

Herman Cain: 8.62% (1,456 votes) 

Rick Perry WRITE-IN: 3.62% (718 votes) 

Romney: 3.36% (567 votes) 

Gingrich: 2.28% (385 votes) 

Huntsman: 0.41%: (69 votes) 

Thad McCotter: 0.21% (35 votes)