The Golden Report

Telling quotes, via Mike Allen’s Playbook, from President Obama’s night of political fundraising in New York City:

“[I]n addition to preventing a financial meltdown and preventing a second Great Depression, we were able to pass a historic health care bill that’s going to make sure that 30 million people have coverage. We were able to pass a Wall Street reform package that, although some folks in New York are still grousing about it [laughter], is going to ensure that we do not have the same kinds of crisis … We were able to make sure that we ended the war in Iraq, as promised. And by the end of this year we’re going to have all of our troops out, which is going to be an extraordinary homecoming for families all across America. …

“[A]re we going to have the best schools in this country, are we going to have the best infrastructure, are we going to do what it takes, so these guys end up being part of an America where everybody can still make it if they try[?] … Our kids are going to be fine. And I always tell Malia and Sasha, ‘Look, you guys, I don’t worry about you’ — I mean, I worry the way parents worry. But they’re on a path that is going to be successful, even if the country as a whole is not successful. But that’s not our vision of America. I don’t want an America where my kids are living behind walls and gates, and can’t feel a part of a country that is giving everybody a shot. And that’s what we’re fighting for. That’s what 2012 is going to be all about.”

“We still have a lot of headwinds ahead of us. Europe is probably the biggest one. And I’m spending an awful lot of time making transatlantic calls — because when you look at what’s happening in Europe, both to the banks and for countries like Italy that need to refinance their debt, that can have a profound impact on what happens here. But I am cautiously hopeful that they end up recognizing that they need to do the right thing, and we’re providing them as much assistance as we can to make sure that the situation is stabilized, because it will have an impact all around the world.”

“I try not to pat myself too much on the back, but this administration has done more in terms of the security of the state of Israel than any previous administration.”

HAPPENING NOW: On NBC, the first interview with Former Penn State Assistant Football Coach Gary Sandusky- who agreed to a brief telephone interview with Bob Costas today. The full interview is airing on Rock Center with Brian Williams tonight.

From the conversation:

Sandusky: “I say that I am innocent of those charges.”

Costas: “Are you a pedophile?” 

Sandusky: “No.”

Sandusky: “I could say that I have done some of those things. I have horsed around with kids I have showered after workouts. I have hugged them and I have touched their legs without intent of sexual contact.”

“I shouldn’t have showered with those kids.”

“I enjoy being around children. I enjoy their enthusiasm. I just have a good time with them”

HAPPENING NOW: On ABC, the first interview with Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and her husband, astronaut Mark Kelly. The interview, with ABC’s Diane Sawyer, is airing on a special edition of 20/20 tonight. From the interview:

Sawyer: “How do you feel?”

Giffords: “Pretty good.”

Sawyer: “Is it painful?”

Giffords: “It’s difficult, difficult.”

The special will also contain home videos that Mark Kelly made through Gifford’s recovery which show her soon after the shooting at the hospital, and during rehabilitation and speech therapy.

TOP STORY: The Supreme Court of the United States today agreed to hear oral arguments on cases challenging the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act, President Obama’s signature domestic policy achievement.

With its decision today, the Court is setting itself up to inject its ruling, which could come in the summer of 2012, in the midst of a highly charged political season. Its decision, whether to uphold or strike down the constitutionality of the Act’s individual mandate provision will become a major decision point for voters in the final months of the election. However, there is a possibility that the Court could punt in its ruling and decline to issue a definitive yes or no to the constitutionality question.

NPR’s Nina Totenberg described the Court’s decision today in a report on the broadcast All Things Considered:

“In an apparent effort to be as comprehensive as possible, the court certified four questions for review. First, and most important: Did Congress exceed its constitutional authority in requiring virtually all Americans to have basic health care coverage?

The second: If the individual mandate is unconstitutional, does the rest of the law stand? Even the government now says there would be no way to provide the goodies everyone likes in this law without the expanded pool of people paying into the system.

The third question: Does the law impose unconstitutional conditions on the states by requiring them to pay 5 percent more into Medicaid by 2017 to cover the increased number of people under the program?

And the last question: Is it is premature to decide the first three?”

As if to underline the significance of the case, the court allocated 5 1/2 hours for oral argument, the longest argument in modern times.

Were the court to invalidate the statute in its entirety, it would roll back many of the provisions already benefiting millions of Americans.

FOR BRET- a soon-to-be lawyer…

“The length of the oral argument set by the court for the health care challenge is a recognition of the case’s importance. At 5 1/2 hours, the argument will be the longest in more than 45 years.

Time set aside for argument has changed markedly over the course of American legal history. Before 1849, there was no time limit at all, and counsel would often go on for days. In 1849, the increased caseload caused the justices to set a two-hour limit per side, which was reduced to one hour in 1925, and a half-hour per side in 1970, which is where it remains for most cases today.

But big cases, with many parties and complexities, sometimes get more time. The 1974 Nixon tapes case lasted three hours. Bush v. Gore went 90 minutes. The 1971 Pentagon Papers took two hours; the challenge to the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law in 2003 was four hours.”

DRIVING THE 2012 CAMPAIGN TONIGHT- “Rambling Cain has an ‘Oops’ Moment” by Alexander Burns in POLITICO.

Today, Herman Cain gave an editorial board interview to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, but he gave less than a clear answer on his opinion on the US military operation in Libya. From the transcript:

“OK, Libya. President Obama supported the uprising, correct? President Obama called for the removal of Qadhafi. Just want to make sure we’re talking about the same thing before I say, ‘yes I agree,’ or ‘no I didn’t agree.’ I do not agree with the way he handled it for the following reason – nope, that’s a different one. I gotta go back to, see … Got all this stuff twirling around in my head. Specifically, what are you asking me, did I agree or not disagree with Obama on?”

AND THEN [After the question- on whether Cain supported Pres. Obama’s decision to intervene in Libya-was rephrased and asked again]…

“Here’s what I would have – I would have done a better job of determining who the opposition is and I’m sure that our intelligence people have some of that information. Based upon who made up that opposition, OK, based upon who made up that opposition, might have caused me to make some different decisions about how we participated.

“Secondly, no, I did not agree with Qadhafi killing his citizens. Absolutely not. So something would have had to been – I would have supported many of the things they did in order to help stop that. It’s not a simple yes-no, because there are different pieces and I would have gone about assessing the situation differently, which might have caused us to end up in the same place. But where I think more could have been done was, what’s the nature of the opposition?”

It’s a rambling response, for sure. Watch the full video:

THE LATEST POLLS- out today-

POLITICO/Battleground States:

• Cain 27%
• Romney 25%
• Gingrich 14%
• Perry 14%
• Paul 5%
• Santorum 2%
• Bachmann 2%

OBAMA 41%, GENERIC REPUBLICAN, 41%, Undecided 13%

CNN Poll (with difference from October):

• Romney 24% (-2%)
• Gingrich 22% (+14%)
• Cain 14% (-11%)
• Perry 12% (-1%)
• Paul 8% (-1%)
• Bachmann 6% (-)
• Huntsman 3% (+2%)
• Santorum 3% (+1%)

The big story coming out of the CNN poll is the surge in support for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has now eclipsed Herman Cain and is statistically-tied with Mitt Romney for front-runner status.

WALL STREET

• Dow down 75
• Nasdaq down 22
• S&P 500 down 12

DRIVING WASHINGTON TONIGHT: “Supercommittee could punt on tough calls” as Manu Raju & Jake Sherman write tonight in POLITICO

“There’s increasing talk of punting some of the toughest issues to the congressional committees charged with doing this job in the first place. That could mean giving the House Ways and Means and Senate Finance panels an order to come up with a specific amount of savings and a broad directive to rewrite the Tax Code.

This potential abdication of power from a special committee that was granted sweeping authority to tackle the staggering deficit shows just how badly gridlocked Congress remains.

To some, it sounds like the supercommittee is trying to figure out how to maximize political cover if it fails — a far cry from the mandate to achieve major deficit reductions where the rest of Congress has fallen short.

PRESIDENT OBAMA departs Hawaii in a few hours en route to Australia, where he will be on a State Visit as part of a 9-day Asian-Pacific tour

FINALLY…Brad Pitt today announced that he would be retiring from acting when he turns 50, in 3 years. In an interview with an Australian news program, Pitt hinted at what may be next:

“I am really enjoying the producing side and development of stories and putting those pieces together … getting stories to the plate that might have had a tougher time otherwise.

“You know, I don’t know that we’re finished” adopting or conceiving more tots with Angelina Jolie. “Those late nights are so fun when one of them’s up or those mornings when they get up and make pancakes or something. That’s what it’s about.”

FRIDAY’S EARLY EDITION

TOP STORY: A gunman opened fire today outside of the United States Embassy in Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina in what local police are calling a terrorist attack.

“Sarajevo Mayor Alija Behmen said the gunman “got off a tram with a Kalashnikov and started shooting at the American Embassy.” Witnesses told Bosnian television that the man urged pedestrians to move away, saying he was targeting only the embassy,” the Associated Press reports.

“He wore a beard and was dressed in an outfit with short pants that reveal his ankles — typical for followers of the conservative Wahhabi branch of Islam. One police officer guarding the building was wounded before police surrounded the gunman. After a 30-minute standoff, the sound of a single shot echoed and… the shooter slump to the ground.”

No US embassy personnel were injured in the attack.

“Our thoughts and prayers at this time are with those who put their lives on the line to protect the embassy. The United States is a proven friend of Bosnia-Herzegovina. Its government and its people supported us in the most difficult moments in our history and nobody has the right to jeopardize our relations,” said a State Department spokesperson this afternoon.

WEATHER: It looks like this weekend will see the first East Coast snow storm of the 2011/12 season is making. A rare October Nor’Easter could bring as much as a foot of snow to the western mountains of the Berkshires in Massachusetts and smaller amounts west of the I-95 corridor. Because of the moderate temperatures in the upper levels of the atmosphere- fueled by ocean temperatures in the mid to upper 50s- most of the accumulation is expected to melt soon after reaching the ground. Still, it could make for a picturesque Halloween weekend. Because of the rarity of an October snow storm, forecasts are changing by hour. And major risks from October snow are downed trees and power lines- because many trees still have leaves on them. 

MAJOR CITIES ACCUMULATION FORECAST:

BOSTON 1-3”
HARTFORD 5-8”
NEW YORK 2-4”
ALBANY 2-4”
PHILADELPHIA 3-5”

Philadelphia and New York City usually see their first measurable snowfall in mid-December. Measurable snow in NYC from this storm would be the first this early in the season since 1952.

In Connecticut: The greatest October snowstorm in metro Hartford dropped 1.7 inches on Oct. 10, 1979. The heaviest October snowfall in Connecticut history occurred on Oct. 4, 1987 in Norfolk with 9.5 inches of accumulation (via NBC Connecticut).

WFSB in Hartford continues its long-standing tradition of naming winter storms- assigning ALFRED to Saturday’s expected weather event. The more than 45 year old tradition was started when the old Travelers Weather Service did weather reports from the former Broadcast House on Constitution Plaza in downtown Hartford. This tradition was carried on after Travelers by the “New England Weather Service.”  They provided weather for WTIC-AM 1080, WTIC-FM 96.5, and the old T.I.C. ‘Tonight In Connecticut’ News At Ten. To this day, WTIC radio and television remain steadfast Connecticut institutions.

WALL STREET: The Dow finished higher for the fifth consecutive week. News from Europe that a deal was reached between the Eurozone members and a stronger than expected GDP number on Thursday contributed to the gains.

• DOW up 23
• NASDAQ down 1
• S&P 500 up 0.5

HOW WE DID: On Sunday night, we predicted three things to watch for in the week ahead. Here’s how we did:

1/ Europe. On Wednesday night, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a Eurozone debt deal- which sparked a 3% rise in the Dow yesterday but, as more details become known, enthusiasm has tempered. In the Financial Times this morning, President Obama has an op/ed in which he describes the US’ role of acting as a firewall to prevent the European debt crisis from crossing the ocean and reaching the US economy.

2/ Occupy Wall Street. As the protest movement that remains unorganized continues to spread around the country, this week saw the first real display in the United States of police versus protestor violence. In Oakland on Tuesday night, the Police Department used tear gas and other crowd dispersants on the Occupy Oakland protestors- a move which the department has defended. But we will see over the next week- whether it unifies the protestors.

3/ The Campaign Trail. This week saw a series of national and state-specific polls that all showed Hermain Cain’s strength continuing- he is now a frontrunner in all national polls and leads Mitt Romney by 0.7% in the Real Clear Politics average. Cain leads in poll averages in Iowa and South Carolina, while Romney has a 20-point lead in New Hampshire (and leads in the specific TIME/CNN polls released on Wednesday.)

FINALLY: What a game last night in Game Six of the World Series, described this way by Sports Illustrated’s Michael Rosenberg, “If you missed Game 6 of the World Series Thursday night, and you didn’t see the five errors, or the Cardinals score six runs from the eighth inning on, or the Rangers come within one strike of winning the Series in both the ninth and 10th innings, or Josh Hamilton hit an apparent game-winning homer in the 10th inning despite barely being able to walk, or St. Louis native David Freese hit the game-winning home run for St. Louis in the bottom of the 11th”

TONIGHT its Game Seven, 8:05pm EDT, from St. Louis.

TOP STORY: Progress has been made in the Eurozone debt crisis negotiations ongoing in Brussels. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has endorsed a proposal that would ask banks within the 27-member European Union to raise approximately $150 billion as a “buffer” against expected losses. 

Negotiations are continuing on other aspects of the financial proposal, including the fate of the bankrupt nation of Greece. As the BBC reports from Brussels tonight, “There are fears the Greek debt crisis could spread to Italy and Spain. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there remained “many problems to settle”. As she arrived in Brussels on Wednesday, she said: “The world is watching Germany and Europe. They are looking to see if we are ready and able to assume our responsibilities during Europe’s worst crisis since the end of World War II.”But according to draft summit conclusions there are still plenty of details to pin down.”

On WALL STREET today:

• DOW up 162
• NASDAQ up 12
• S&P 500 up 13

SUPERCOMMITTEE: Senate Democrats today announced a proposal for the Joint Congressional Committee on Deficit Reduction to pick up where the President and Speaker Boehner left off in their summer negotiations over a “grand bargain,” urging the Committee to adopt a $3 trillion package of deficit reduction when it reports back one month from now. The President and Speaker were negotiating a $4 trillion grand bargain and $1 trillion in deficit reduction was adopted in the eventual bill that raised the debt ceiling in August. 

But the 1:1 proposal- where increases in revenue (taxes) would equal reductions in spending, faces near insurmountable opposition from Republicans, including those on the Committee. As Lori Montgomery reports tonight in the Washington Post, “So far, the response from the GOP has not been favorable. Although they declined to comment publicly on the offer, Republican aides privately dismissed the tax and stimulus pieces as unacceptable.Republicans also questioned the timing of the offer, which comes nearly two months after the talks began, and suggested that Democrats may be trying to paint themselves as reasonable negotiators, knowing full well that the offer would not fly with the GOP.”

2012: Rick Perry becomes the first candidate with paid television advertising in the 2012 presidential campaign. Perry is up on the air with an ad-buy in Iowa today. In it, he begins by pledging to create 2.5 million new jobs as president. “And I know something about that,” he says. 

Note: this video clip (via POLITICO) is as the ad appeared on KCCI in Des Moines (forward to 1:44 to see the short Perry ad).

FOX NEWS

CNN/TIME EARLY STATE POLLS:

Romney 24%
Cain 21%
Paul 12%
Gingrich 10%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 6%
Santorum 2%
Huntsman 1%

Romney 40%
Cain 13%
Paul 12%
Huntsman 6%
Gingrich 5%
Perry 4%

Romney 25%
Cain 23%
Paul 12%
Perry 11%
Gingrich 8%
Bachmann 4%
Santorum 1%
Huntsman 1%

Romney 30%
Cain 18%
Gingrich 9%
Perry 9%
Paul 6%
Bachmann 4%
Huntsman 2%
Santorum 1%

—>Romney’s lead in Iowa is impressive considering he has not actively campaigned in the state- he was in Iowa last Thursday, but then announced that he would not be participating in a key Republican party dinner next month

—>Very important to remember that Mitt Romney is leading in all of the early Republican states. Although the margin between Romney and the second-tier candidate in the states varies, it shows his strength now as a formidable front-runner

FINALLY…a British coroner announced today the official cause of death for singer Amy Winehouse in July: alcohol overdose. “That was the ruling of a coroner’s inquest into the death of the Grammy-winning soul singer, who died with empty vodka bottles in her room and lethal amounts of alcohol in her blood – more than five times the British drunk driving limit. Coroner Suzanne Greenaway gave a verdict of “death by misadventure,” saying Wednesday the singer suffered accidental alcohol poisoning when she resumed drinking after weeks of abstinence. ”The unintended consequence of such potentially fatal levels (of alcohol) was her sudden and unexpected death,” Greenaway said.”

BREAKING: Longtime “60 Minutes” commentator Andy Rooney, who just recorded his final essay for the CBS newsmagazine a few weeks ago, is hospitalized in stable condition tonight after what the Washington Post reports were “serious complications” following minor surgery

WE CAN’T WAIT: President Obama continued his administration’s “We Can’t Wait” initiative today, announcing executive branch actions directed towards helping veterans and students. The Department of Education’s student loan restructuring program will accelerate reforms of the student lending system that were scheduled to go into effect in 2014 with two key elements: capping loan payments at 10% of income and forgiving remaining debt after 20 payments. For veterans, the Administration through the Health and Human Services department announced that they are challenging the 8,000 community health centers scheduled to open as a result of the Affordable Care Act to hire at least one veteran each and providing additional training to transition veterans to careers as physician assistants.

A FLAT TAX: In South Carolina today, Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry announced his much-anticipated tax plan- which Perry calls a flat tax. Two big elements: the plan allows for anyone who chooses to remain within the existing system (the campaign will therefore say that it is not a burden because anyone can “keep their existing tax bracket”) and the Perry proposal would place a 20% cap on individual income taxes.

In an Op/Ed in the Wall Street Journal this morning, Perry introduced his “Cut, Balance and Grow” plan,

“The plan starts with giving Americans a choice between a new, flat tax rate of 20% or their current income tax rate. The new flat tax preserves mortgage interest, charitable and state and local tax exemptions for families earning less than $500,000 annually, and it increases the standard deduction to $12,500 for individuals and dependents.

This simple 20% flat tax will allow Americans to file their taxes on a postcard, saving up to $483 billion in compliance costs. By eliminating the dozens of carve-outs that make the current code so incomprehensible, we will renew incentives for entrepreneurial risk-taking and investment that creates jobs, inspires Americans to work hard and forms the foundation of a strong economy.

My plan also abolishes the death tax once and for all, providing needed certainty to American family farms and small businesses.”

TONIGHT in his first appearance on THE O’REILLY FACTOR, part of the Perry re-introduction and the campaign’s Cut, Balance & Grow roll-out, the Texas Governor had some interesting comments on his 10 weeks in the Republican race, including the series of debates  he has participated in, to date,

“Actually, these debates are set up for nothing more than to tear down the candidates. It pretty hard to be able to sit and lay out your ideas and your concepts with a one minute response. So, you know, if there was a mistake made, it was probably ever doing one of the campaigns [debates] when all they’re interested in is stirring up between the candidates instead of really talking about the issues that are important to the American people,” he said. 

NATIONAL JOURNAL AND CBS NEWS announced today that they are sponsoring a Republican presidential candidates debate in Greenville, South Carolina on Saturday November 12th with a focus on foreign policy and national security. This debate is squeezed in between the debates we already had on the calendar for November: Wed 11/09 in Rochester, Michigan and Tuesday 11/15 in Washington, DC. The NJ/CBS debate will be the 10th of the primary season.

CBS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL out today:

• Cain 25%
• Romney 21%
• Gingrich 10%
• Paul 8%
• Perry 6%
• Bachmann 2%
• Huntsman 1%
• Santorum 1%

Observations on this poll- which is surprising for a number of reasons:

• Herman Cain remains in first place despite a weaker debate last Tuesday and two weeks of critical reporting on the the candidates’ 9-9-9 economic plan

• Newt Gingrich is in third place- he has been in single digits in nearly every other poll this year and has run a disorganized, flustered and even angry campaign

• Rick Perry, who the conventional political narrative suggests is challenging Mitt Romney for the nomination, places fifth in this poll, registering only 6% of the national Republican respondents and behind Rep. Ron Paul

• Jon Huntsman, who went on the Colbert Report last night on Comedy Central, still can’t rise above the 1% mark in a major national poll

PRESIDENT OBAMA JOB APPROVAL RATING: Approve 46%, Disapprove 46%

CONGRESSIONAL JOB APPROVAL RATING: Approve 9%, Disapprove 84%

EUROZONE BALOUT- the latest from BBC News-

“The Polish presidency of the EU has confirmed to the BBC that key meetings have been postponed. The EU’s 27 finance ministers and the 17-nation Eurogroup will not now meet on Wednesday, although a full emergency heads-of-government summit will happen.

This could mean a delay to final announcements on solutions.”

WALL STREET- on the news from Europe, the final hour of trading saw a selloff today, sending major indices lower:

• DOW down 207
• NASDAQ down 67
• S&P 500 down 25

IBM today named Virginia Rometty its next CEO, the first female CEO in IBM’s history. She will begin on January 1st.

FINALLY..If you haven’t yet watched HERMAN CAIN’s new campaign video- released last night- you just have to. It is one of the most bizarre campaign ads you might ever watch. Keep in mind that this candidate leads the CBS News/NYT poll we referenced earlier.

HAPPENING NOW- Game Four of the 2011 World Series. TOP OF THE SEVENTH-
Rangers 4, Cardinals 0

FIRST LOOK: After a second failed attempt by the Senate to bring up
the President’s American Jobs Act proposal this past week, the
Administration will continue its campaign for the law in the week
ahead, starting tomorrow, with a slightly different theme, “We Can’t
Wait,” and a series of proposed executive branch actions to spur
economic activity (growth) and job creation, without direct
legislative action. A New York Times story today sets the scene (and
is being pushed by Administration officials Dan Pfieffer and Jay
Carney tonight via Twitter)

“According to an administration official, Mr. Obama will kick off his
new offensive in Las Vegas, ground zero of the housing bust, by
promoting new rules for federally guaranteed mortgages so that more
homeowners, those with little or no equity in their homes, can
refinance and avert foreclosure.

And Wednesday in Denver, the official said, Mr. Obama will announce
policy changes to ease college graduates’ repayment of federal loans,
seeking to alleviate the financial concerns of students considering
college at a time when states are raising tuition.”

The “We can’t wait” campaign is a new phase in Mr. Obama’s so-far
unsuccessful effort — punctuated until now by his cries of “Pass this
bill!” on the stump — to pressure Republicans to support the job
creation package he proposed after Labor Day. It comes after unanimous
votes by Senate Republicans in the past week to block the plan; House
Republican leaders have refused to put the measure to a vote.”

THE PRESIDENTS WEEK AHEAD: Tomorrow- Las Vegas, and then to Los
Angeles. Tuesday- records Jay Leno and then on to San Francisco.
Wednesday- Denver and back to Washington. The West Coast trip will be
a mix of campaign fundraisers and White House events for the American
Jobs Act.

WHAT THE ADMINISTRATION IS THINKING- back to the Calmes Article- which is highly sourced-

“Polls show overwhelming support for pieces of the $447 billion
package, which includes expanded tax cuts for workers and employers,
and spending for infrastructure projects and for state aid to keep
teachers and emergency responders at work. But Republicans oppose
provisions in Mr. Obama’s plan that would offset the costs with higher
taxes on the wealthy.

Should the bill ultimately fail, Democrats believe they at least have
the better political argument, and they vow to exploit what they call
the Republicans’ obstruction in the 2012 campaign.”

THIS WEEKEND ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

Nevada Republicans agreed to change the date of their early state
caucuses next year, from a proposed January 14th date, to Saturday
February 4th- after votes in Florida and South Carolina- and allowing
New Hampshire to follow Iowa in early January with the traditional,
and historical, first in the nation presidential primary

New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, who demanded that
Nevada change the date of their caucus- and threatened to hold his
state’s primary as early as December 6th if necessary- is likely to
announce the official date of the 2012 New Hampshire Primary this
week- between Iowa and South Carolina on Tuesday January 10th.

Therefore, the early state calendar will go like this: IOWA-Tuesday
01/03, NEW HAMPSHIRE- Tuesday 01/10, SOUTH CAROLINA- Saturday 01/21, FLORIDA- Tuesday 01/31, NEVADA & MAINE- Saturday 02/04, COLORADO & MINNESOTA- Tuesday 02/07, ARIZONA & MICHIGAN- Tuesday 02/28, WASHINGTON- Saturday 03/03 and SUPER TUESDAY on Tuesday 03/06.

Remember- all of the states before April will award their delegates
proportionally. That means that it will likely not be until Super
Tuesday in March when a presumptive nominee will be officially
declared. With the calendar just about settled, it’s looking like a
two month primary season before that point.

THE FRONTRUNNERS:

MITT ROMNEY- will officially file paperwork for the New Hampshire
primary ballot tomorrow, when he will also announce the endorsement of
Former NH Sen. John Sununu

RICK PERRY- will unveil the second piece of his “jobs and fiscal
reform” plan on Tuesday in South Carolina, when he will announce his
support for a rewrite of the tax code and the institution of a “flat
tax”

NO DEBATE this week..or next week..the next scheduled debate (the
ninth) will be on Wednesday November 09 in Rochester, Michigan. There
is one other debate (the following Tuesday, 11/15) scheduled in
November.

DECEMBER DEBATE SCHEDULE: 12/01- Phoenix; 12/10- Des Moines; 12/15- Sioux City

JANUARY DEBATE SCHEDULE: 01/16- Myrtle Beach; 01/19- Charleston;
01/26- Jacksonville; 01/30- Tampa

THREE THINGS TO WATCH IN THE WEEK AHEAD

1/ Europe. Reports from over the weekend show signs of progress
between German and French officials who are meeting to develop a
resolution to the Eurozone debt crisis. Wall Street (and tonight in
Monday trading in Asia) are watching the European developments very
carefully. This has been a top story for several weeks and months, but
things appear to be coming to a head this week.

2/ Occupy Wall Street. 100 protestors were arrested in Chicago over
the weekend as the “Occupy” protest continue in cities across the
country- and even in cities around the world. Watch to see if there is
any organizational growth this week. A Sunday Washington Post story
compared (and found similarities) between Tea Party members and Occupy
protestors- watch to see if other news organizations jump on to that
narrative.

3/ On the campaign trail- without a debate, watch to see how the
candidates are defining themselves as they meet with voters in early
states and get into the weeds with them on policy issues. With Romney,
watch to see how he is connecting with the “average joe” in New
Hampshire- a must-win state for him. And with Perry, watch to see what
kind of specific details are announced in his Tuesday jobs speech- and
if and how the Romney campaign chooses to respond to it.

FRIDAY’S EARLY EDITION

TOP STORY: President Obama announced this afternoon that the roughly 43,000 remaining US troops in Iraq will be returning to the United States by the end of the year, after an agreement with the Iraqi government to grant immunity protection to US soldiers failed to be reached. 

“The rest of our troops in Iraq will come home at the end of the year. After nearly nine years, America’s war in Iraq will be over,” the President said in an statement from the Brady Briefing Room at The White House earlier this afternoon. President Obama and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki spoke by phone earlier today. 

Here’s how the Washington Post reports on the significant development today, “The failure to reach an agreement could pose security problems for the Iraqi government, still largely divided by sect and ethnicity, and for an Obama administration that inherited the war but has pledged an orderly withdrawal. If sectarian strife or other violence should break out in Iraq once U.S. forces have left, Obama could be blamed, particularly by his conservative critics, for abandoning Iraq after nearly nine years of war before it was ready to protect itself. But the result also allows for a more definitive conclusion to the divisive U.S. military operation in Iraq, which has cost nearly $1 trillion and more than 4,400 American lives.”

President Obama opposed the Iraq War from the beginning, a point of separation that his Democratic primary campaign against New York Senator Hillary Clinton seized upon. After taking office, the President announced, in February 2009, a drawdown of US forces that would conform with the agreement reached between Former President George W. Bush and Prime Minister al-Maliki late in Bush’s term. 

On August 31, 2010, President Obama addressed the nation from the Oval Office, announcing that all US combat troops had left Iraq and only a provisional force of about 50,000 soldiers remained. The name of the military effort was offiicially changed from “Operation Iraqi Freedom” to “Operation New Dawn.” At present, about 10,000 of those troops have been withdrawn.

More than 4,400 Americans have been killed since the war in Iraq began in 2003 and the 8 1/2 year war is estimated to have cost US taxpayers over $1 trillion. 

MORE ON STEVE JOBS- from the Walter Isaacson biography, which will be published on Monday. As first reported by the Huffington Post last night, Jobs reported told President Obama at their first meeting in October 2010 that he believed that he would be a one-term president. The book is an extraordinary look inside the life of a deeply private man, who was awed in life and revered in the days since his death.

“Jobs, who was known for his prickly, stubborn personality, almost missed meeting President Obama in the fall of 2010 because he insisted that the president personally ask him for a meeting. Though his wife told him that Obama “was really psyched to meet with you,” Jobs insisted on the personal invitation, and the standoff lasted for five days. When he finally relented and they met at the Westin San Francisco Airport, Jobs was characteristically blunt. He seemed to have transformed from a liberal into a conservative.

“You’re headed for a one-term presidency,” he told Obama at the start of their meeting, insisting that the administration needed to be more business-friendly. As an example, Jobs described the ease with which companies can build factories in China compared to the United States, where “regulations and unnecessary costs” make it difficult for them.”

AND... the article describes Jobs’ obsessiveness with small details, including how he made an issue of a planned dessert on the menu when Obama met with technology leaders in Silicon Valley. 

“In preparation for the dinner, Jobs exhibited his notorious attention to detail, telling venture capitalist John Doerr that the menu of shrimp, cod and lentil salad was “far too fancy” and objecting to a chocolate truffle dessert. But he was overruled by the White House, which cited the president’s fondness for cream pie.”

WALL STREET was heading higher at the end of the trading day, with the DOW up almost 200 points amid optimism that a potential Eurozone deal could be reached in time for Sunday’s planned summit, and be passed at a second summit by Wednesday of next week. The $8 billion deal that is being discussed must still be approved by the International Monetary Fund, and- if all succeeds- would reach the bankrupt nation of Greece by mid-November, the BBC reports today. No doubt the outcome of Sunday’s critical meeting will set the stage for the next trading week, with a deal potentially bringing some stability to uncertain markets. 

GROUPON is preparing for a scaled-back IPO, and is expected to raise about $540 million, less than previously expected, when the company goes public next month. From Reuters, “The fact that Groupon has changed its accounting twice under pressure from regulators, and lost two chief operating officers this year, also has not instilled confidence…Groupon is one of the most closely watched IPOs this year, as turmoil in the financial markets disrupted many share offering plans and cut the value of the few that did get done. If Groupon succeeds, it will bode well for other companies also considering going public, including social gaming company Zynga and social network Facebook.”

2012:

THE LATEST POLLS

RASMUSSEN/IOWA: Cain 28%, Romney 21%, Paul 10%, Gingrich 9%, Bachmann 8%, Perry 7%, Santorum 4%, Huntsman 2%

GALLUP PRESIDENTIAL JOB APPROVAL: Approve 42%, Disapprove 50%

RASMUSSEN PRESIDENTIAL JOB APPROVAL: Approve 44%, Disapprove 55%

The big 2012 news today comes from WMUR in New Hampshire, who reported early this afternoon that the entire campaign staff of Rep. Michele Bachmann in the first primary state had quit. 

HERE’S A QUOTE that you don’t want to hear if you are a Republican running for president (via Reuters): “It certainly underscores the impression that New Hampshire isn’t a priority for her [Bachmann]. She’s totally written us off,” said former Republican state legislator Fran Wendelboe.

FINALLY...The Senate last night approved John Bryson to be President Obama’s second Secretary of Commerce. After a 74-26 confirmation vote, that was delayed for nearly five months because of Republican opposition, Bryson was formally sworn in today. He becomes the nation’s 37th Secretary of Commerce, succeeding former Washington Governor Gary Locke, who President Obama appointed this spring as his second Ambassador to China (replacing former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who is now seeking the Republican Presidential Nomination). 

Bryson is the former Chairman, CEO and President of the electric company Edison International. He graduated from Stanford University in 1965 and from Yale Law School in 1969. Bryson was also a Director at Boeing and Walt Disney and a Trustee at Stanford and the California Institute of Technology. 

FROM ST. LOUIS TONIGHT: Game One of the 2011 World Series. 9pm score: St. Louis Cardinals: 0; Texas Rangers: 0 in the bottom of the fourth inning. 

TOP STORY: 18 tigers, 17 lions, 6 bears and 3 cougars, 3 mountain lions, 1 wolf and 1 baboon are dead tonight in Muskingum County, Ohio after the owner of an exotic animal farm opened the cages of his collection before killing himself in an apparent suicide today. Sheriff officials in the County then moved in to find the missing animals and to shoot them. One animal, a monkey, remains missing tonight, and he is thought to be carrying the Herpes B virus. It has been a bizarre story that has developed throughout the day. 

PRESIDENT OBAMA wrapped up his 3-day bus tour through North Carolina and Virginia today, campaigning for individual sections from his jobs bill that suffered defeat in the Senate last week. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid today announced that the first piece of the jobs bill- aide to hire teachers and police officers- would be brought to the Senate Floor as a stand-alone measure and be voted on Friday of this week. The bill, which would be funded with a surtax on Millionaires, faces opposition from Republicans and moderate Democrats and is not expected to reach the 60-vote threshold it needs for consideration. The Administration is continuing to campaign aggressively for the passage of the legislation- with First Lady Michelle Obama joining the President today in Virginia; and Vice President Joe Biden encouraging its passage in a separate appearance.

SOCIAL SECURITY: After two years of a 0% cost of living increase, social security recipients will see a 3.6% increase in their cost of living allowances in 2012, the Social Security Administration announced today. The average monthly Social Security check will increase $43 to $1,229. The cost of living increase also means that an extra 10 million Americans will pay into the system, with the first $110,100 of a person’s wages taxable for Social Security, up from $106,800 this year.

WALL STREET: News that the ongoing Euro Zone negotiations have stalled ahead of a weekend deadline helped to dampen the day on Wall Street and forced the major indices lower.

DOW down 72

NASDAQ down 53

S&P 500 down 15

SUPERCOMMITTEE: The Joint Congressional Committee on Deficit Reduction- charged with finding $1.2 trillion in savings in the federal budget by the end of next month, announced today that it will hold its next public hearing next Wednesday, October 26th, over a month after its last public hearing. The group- which is made up of both Republicans and Democrats appointed by the leadership in both chambers, on both sides of the aisle, has come under public criticism for holding the majority of their meetings behind closed doors. Just yesterday, the group met with the so-called “Gang of Six” senators who were meeting throughout the winter and spring to come up with a bi-partisan deficit reduction proposal. The Gang achieved some consensus during the summer’s debt ceiling negotiations but, ultimately, were unsuccessful in pushing a “grand bargain.” They hope to use the Supercommittee to continue their work. Next week’s public hearing will give us the first sense as to what the committee members are thinking, if there is the possibility that they may come to consensus before the November 23rd deadline, and the scope and scale of the package that may be under consideration.

2012 POLLS:

NBC/MARIST SOUTH CAROLINA: Cain 31%, Romney 28%, Perry 10%, Gingrich 7%, Paul 5%, Bachmann 5%, Santorum 2%, Huntsman 1%

NBC/MARIST FLORIDA: Romney 33%, Cain 32%, Perry 9%, Gingrich 6%, Paul 6%, Bachmann 2%, Huntsman 2%, Santorum 1%

ASSOCIATED PRESS national Republican presidential nomination:

Romney 30%

Cain 26%

Perry 13%

Gingrich 7%

Paul 8%

Bachmann 4%

Huntsman 2%

Santorum 2%

From the AP write up, “Among Republicans, the desire to oust Obama is clear, according to a new AP-GfK poll. But it has not resolved divisions over the choice of a nominee. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is reasonably popular, but he has not pulled away from the field. Former pizza company executive Herman Cain runs close to Romney as the candidate Republicans would most like to see on the ballot, but many Republicans are reluctant to back a man who has never held office. Texas Gov. Rick Perry lags in the poll, which was conducted before Tuesday night’s combative debate in Las Vegas.”

And key, “There seems to be a broad gender divide in the Republican contest. Among GOP women, Romney is favored over his nearest competitor, Cain, by 17 percentage points, with the rest of the field in single digits. The picture is more muddled among Republican men: 31 percent favor Cain, 26 percent Romney, 17 percent Perry, 10 percent Paul, and the rest are each 5 percent or below. Among all adults, regardless of party identification, 21 percent say they’d like the GOP to nominate Romney. Eighteen percent name Cain, 13 percent Perry and 11 percent Paul”

FINALLY: Remember the Cantaloupe outbreak of Listeria last month? Federal official now say that unsanitary packing procedures likely led to the outbreak of the disease that has sickened 123 people in 26 states and become one of the US’ largest food disease outbreaks in history. “Growth of the pathogen was probably exacerbated by the farm’s failure to pre-cool the cantaloupes. The company acknowledged that it had skipped a key step that pulls the heat from cantaloupe before it is refrigerated, possibly contributing to condensation and moist surfaces that encouraged the Listeria to grow,” the Washington Post reports tonight. 

SPECIAL POST-DEBATE EDITION
The Eighth Republican Presidential Candidates Debate just concluded from Las Vegas, Nevada. It was the third debate hosted by CNN, the first moderated by Anderson Cooper, and the second to take place in the Pacific Time Zone. It also was the most consequential debate thus far and a game-changer in the Republican primary race.

THE HEADLINE, in THREE PARTS: Cain falls, Perry and Romney attack, Santorum rises

 
PART ONE: Herman Cain, whose campaign has been on a meteoric rise for the past two weeks, started this debate with the first question from the audience about his 9-9-9 economic plan. Quickly, the plan was attacked by second and third tier candidates Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann, and then by Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich. In his folksy Texas tone, Perry even said “It’s just not going to work, brother,” to Cain. For much of the rest of the debate, Cain was silent- answering questions when they were posed to him- but not bringing up any new attacks or showing very much concern in defending his candidacy. The Cain bubble has now burst. 

PART TWO: Rick Perry had his best debate performance to date, although he continued to stumble on questions of immigration (clearly his largest vulnerability). In his first question, he declined an invitation by moderator Anderson Cooper to attack Romney. A few minutes later, in a question on the economy, Perry, himself, introduced immigration..as he tried to set up an attack on Romney, reviving an allegation first used in the campaign four years ago that Romney’s family hired illegal immigrants as landscapers on their property. There were several exchanges between Romney and Perry tonight, and in every one it was clear that Romney took the higher road. Romney was well-prepped and demonstrated that he is a skillful debater, and that was clearly communicated in his actions tonight.

PART THREE: After last week’s debate, we discussed how impressed we were with Rick Santorum, and we saw a potential opening for him in the future of the campaign. After this week’s debate, we see this as even more the case. Santorum increased his attacks- on both Romney and Perry- tonight, becoming the only other candidate to take on the two front-runners directly. He appealed to social conservatives by discussing his credentials as the family values candidate. And he made the case that he was well prepared to take on Barack Obama because he was a conservative Republican who defeated a liberal Democrat in a swing state. Santorum’s candidacy is on the rise- and with Cain’s fall there is now an opening for him- if he can embrace it. Watch to see if Santorum can effectively communicate in mediums beyond the debate stage- fundraising, organization, media, advertising- and put it all together in a state like Iowa, where he could have a good chance at winning. 

THE EVENING REPORT CANDIDATE RANKINGS: Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Herman Cain 
*Note: We placed Perry second not because he had a stellar debate by himself..but that compared with his previous debate performances he was significantly improved

WHERE WE GO FROM HERE:

The next televised debate is scheduled for WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 09, three weeks from tomorrow. It will be the longest stretch without a debate since the early summer. It will be an important time for the candidates to focus their attention on fundraising, finalizing their strategies for the early states, and beefing up their credentials in areas of weakness - many exposed during this near-weekly series of debates held since Labor Day. Watch to see where the candidates spend their time, how they respond to world events (including, importantly, the growing Occupy Wall Street movements), what their media strategy is for staying relevant and in the public’s attention, and how quickly they go up on the air with paid television advertising- the next milestone that we’ll cross in the 2012 race. 

THE OTHER TOP STORIES TODAY:

Israel finalized a prisoner-swap with Hamas for the release of Pvt. Gilad Shalit, held for the last five years by the Palestinian group.

President Obama was on the second of a three day bus tour through North Carolina and Virginia. Today he spoke at Guilford Technical Community College in Jamestone, NC and later in Greensville County, NC. He was interviewed by ABC’s Jake Tapper (airing on Nightline tonight).

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made an unannounced visit to Libya today and met with rebel leaders. This came after key advances by rebel forces in Gadaffi’s hometown of Sirte over the weekend. 

The White House announced that President Obama will sign the three free trade agreements passed by Congress last week in The Rose Garden on Friday.

ON WALL STREET:
DOW up 180

NASDAQ up 43

S&P 500 up 25

HAPPENING NOW: President Obama is hosting a State Dinner at The White House for South Korean President Lee Myung-bak. It is the fifth state dinner of the Obama Administration and the third this year. Earlier today, a formal arrival ceremony and joint news conference were held at The White House. Later, President Obama spoke before a Joint Session of the United States Congress. Tomorrow, the two leaders travel to Michigan to tour a manufacturing plant.

SOME ATTENDEES AT TONIGHT’S STATE DINNER (as released by The White House this afternoon):

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon

CNN’s Candy Crowley

Joint Chief of Staff Chairman Martin Dempsey

Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Utah Republican Senator Orrin Hatch

Massachusetts Democratic Senator John Kerry

Alan Mulally, CEO of Ford Motor Company

Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg (also on the President’s Jobs Council and hosted a fundraiser for the President in California last month)

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack

THE MENU (as released by The White House Office of Executive Chef):

Butternut Squash Soup “includes squash grown in the White House Kitchen Garden and harvested last week and honey from the White House beehive, plus locally sourced scallions”

Early Fall Harvest Salad “includes red and green lettuces grown in the White House Kitchen Garden which are wrapped in daikon sheets and served with masago rice pearl crispies and a sesame vinaigrette as a nod to Korean traditions” 

Wagyu beef rib eye steaks “from a Texas ranch served with fresh turnip greens from a DC-area source and squash from the White House Kitchen Garden”

Classic chocolate cake “layered with a blend of Korean and American pears”

OBAMA’S PREVIOUS STATE DINNERS

November 24, 2009: Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh

May 19, 2010: President Felipe Calderon

January 19, 2011: President Hu Jintao

June 07, 2011: Chancellor Angela Merkel

2012:

THE INCUMBENT: The Obama 2012 re-election campaign released fundraising figures for the third quarter today, which beat the campaign’s goal of a $50 million haul. Obama for America reported raising $70 million jointly with the Democratic National Committee from 606,027 donors. The average donation totaled $56. When the report is formally filed with the Federal Elections Commission tomorrow it is expected to surpass the record 16,000 pages of the campaign’s second quarter filing.

THE CHALLENGERS: First Jon Huntsman, and then Newt Gingrich, today offered their defense of New Hampshire’s storied First in the Nation presidential primary, with Huntsman saying that he would not campaign in Nevada unless that state changes the date of its caucuses currently scheduled for Saturday 01/14 (it is unclear if that will affect Huntsman’s participation in Tuesday’s debate, in Las Vegas) and Gingrich saying the following in a statement released by his campaign, “As a citizen, I have always supported New Hampshire’s First in the Nation Primary. Now, as a candidate for president, I am committed to competing in and maintaining the first in the nation status of the New Hampshire primary,” he said in a statement. “Therefore, I will not compete in a state which holds its contest inside of one week of New Hampshire”

NOTABLE: In today’s joint press conference with Presidents Obama and Lee, FOX News White House Correspondent Ed Henry asked President Obama a question about the foiled Iranian terror plot and quoted Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney, which prompted the President to say to Henry “I didn’t realize you were the spokesperson for Mitt Romney.” Later on FOX, Henry explained, “I was trying to put it in the broader context of, not just Mitt Romney, but there are a lot of Republicans out there who have charged that the president leads from behind. This is an opportunity for him to push back on those critics in the context of Iran. I think everyone can see that he decided not to engage with Mitt Romney and decided to kind of come after me a little bit.”

IN CONGRESS: Following the passage of three trade agreements and trade adjustment assistance legislation, President Obama placed a telephone call to Speaker of the House John Boehner today. The Speaker’s Office released an unusually detailed readout of the call, as reported in The Hill tonight under the headline, “Boehner confronts Obama on claim GOP has no plan for jobs”:

“I want to make sure you have all the facts,” Boehner told the president in the 10-minute call. Boehner “respectfully challenged” Obama on the call, according to the Speaker’s office, reminding him that Republicans have outlined aspects of his jobs plan on which they would work with him. He also noted provisions in the president’s jobs plan, such as the trade deals, that the House has already approved. Boehner’s office said the two also discussed transportation and infrastructure. “The Speaker expressed his desire to do something on the issue, but to do it in a fiscally-responsible way,” Boehner’s office said.

WALL STREET THURSDAY:

DOW down 43

NASDAQ up 16

S&P 500 down 4

UPDATE: About 10am today, Research in Motion announced that service on the company’s Blackberry network had been restored after an outage that began in Europe, then spread to Asia and Africa, and finally North America, and disrupted service over the past three days. From the latest statement released by the company, “BlackBerry services are operating well globally. BlackBerry Support teams continue to monitor the situation around the clock to ensure ongoing service stability.”

FINALLY:  The Detroit Tigers chalked up a 7-5 victory against the Texas Rangers today, cutting the Ranger’s lead in the American League Championship Series to 3 games to 2.  The Tigers and Rangers will next play Saturday night in Texas. At this hour, the St. Louis Cardinals are hosting the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 4 of the National League Championship. The Cardinals currently lead, 2-0.