The Golden Report

1 DAY UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE (12 delegates)
12 DAYS UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA (25 delegates)
15 DAYS UNTIL THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
22 DAYS UNTIL FLORIDA (50 delegates)

ALL POLITICS EDITION

“I LIKE BEING ABLE TO FIRE PEOPLE who provide services to me,” MITT ROMNEY, speaking today in Nashua, NH.

First- some context- and in the Romney’s campaign defense, the candidate was answering a question about services such as health care, and referencing insurance companies.

However- this quote came just one day after Romney said the following last evening in Rochester, NH:

“I’ve learned what it’s like to sign the front of a paycheck, not just the back of a paycheck, and to know how frightening it is to see if you can make the payroll at the end of the week. These are experiences that many of you know.”

“I know what it’s like to worry whether you’re going to get fired. There were a couple of times I wondered whether I was going to get a pink slip.”

Both quotes were immediately seized upon by Romney’s rivals in tomorrow’s primary. They also came on a day when the Wall Street Journal ran an A1 investigation into Romney’s record at Bain Capital, echoing an attack that Newt Gingrich brought up in this weekend’s debates, and which Gingrich’s Super PAC has bought an extraordinary amount of air time in South Carolina to make an issue in that state’s primary.

Tonight, Romney, the man who is expected to handedly win tomorrow’s primary, is under attack. They’re the same attacks that will be used by President Obama and the re-election campaign during the general election. Further, Romney’s misstatements today bare a striking resemblance to a fatal mistake made my Massachusetts Senator John Kerry during the 2004 election, with his comment that the “actually voted for it before he voted against it”- a line that came to symbolize his indecisiveness.

CAMPAIGN RESET- ROMNEY COMES UNDER FIRE AS PRIMARY LOOMS- THE WASHINGTON POST-PHILIP RUCKER IN HUDSON, NH

“An assault on Mitt Romney’s business career intensified Monday after the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination made an ­off-the-cuff comment that his opponents say shows that he was a corporate predator who sought profits at the expense of workers.”

“Governor Romney enjoys firing people; I enjoy creating jobs,” former Utah governor Jon Huntsman Jr., who polls suggest is enjoying a late surge here, told reporters in Concord. “It may be that he’s slightly out of touch with the economic reality playing out in America right now, and that’s a dangerous place to be.”

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) went further, criticizing the type of business Romney engaged in. “Look, I’m for capitalism,” Gingrich said on NBC’s “Today” show. “But if somebody comes in, takes all the money out of your company and then leaves you bankrupt while they go off with millions, that’s not traditional capitalism.”

Instead of sprinting to the finish before Tuesday’s primary, which he is heavily favored to win, the candidate spent his final day on the New Hampshire campaign trail explaining and defending his role as co-founder and chief executive of Bain Capital. The venture capital firm invested in start-ups such as Staples, an office supplies superstore, but also oversaw large-scale job losses through leveraged buyouts and restructuring.

“Free enterprise will be on trial,” Romney told reporters in Hudson. “I thought it was going to come from the president, from the Democrats on the left, but instead it’s coming from Speaker Gingrich and apparently others. And that’s just part of the process. I’m not worried about that. I’ve got broad shoulders.”

WMUR AND THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE PREDICT A ROMNEY BLOWOUT TOMORROW NIGHT, HAVE HIM UP 24 POINTS IN A POLL RELEASED TODAY

Romney 41%, Paul 17%, Huntsman 11%, Santorum 11%, Gingrich 8%, Perry 1%

SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY/NEWS 7 HAS IT A BIT CLOSER, ROMNEY UP 13

Romney 33%, Paul 20%, Huntsman 13%, Santorum 10%, Santorum 10%, Perry 1%

AND PPP TRACKING PUTS ROMNEY UP BY 17- probably the most accurate assessment of where the race stands

Romney 35%, Paul 18%, Huntsman 16%, Gingrich 12%, Santorum 11%, Perry 1%

IT’S ALL ABOUT EXPECTATIONS...

Will Romney crack 40% tomorrow?
Will anything significantly less be seen as a sign of weakness?
Will Ron Paul pull a strong second or will his support be transfered to another candidate?
Was there a Huntsman surge at the end of the race? Does he come in third, fourth or fifth?
Which candidates hold their New Hampshire primary parties from South Carolina (Rick Perry)?

DRIVING SOUTH CAROLINA- “A BIG CHECK AND GINGRICH GETS A BIG LIFT”- By NICHOLAS CONFESSORE and ERIC LIPTON- THE NEW YORK TIMES-

“MANCHESTER, N.H. — For weeks this winter, as Newt Gingrich’s presidential hopes faltered under the weight of millions of dollars in attack ads paid for by backers of Mitt Romney, a small group of Gingrich supporters quietly lobbied for help from one of the richest men in America: Sheldon Adelson, a billionaire casino owner and Mr. Gingrich’s longtime friend and patron

By the time Mr. Gingrich limped into New Hampshire, some of his top backers had given up on Mr. Adelson and begun prospecting elsewhere, including among erstwhile supporters of Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, to finance the counterattack they believed could salvage Mr. Gingrich’s campaign.

But on Friday, the cavalry arrived: a $5 million check from Mr. Adelson to Winning Our Future, a “super PAC” that supports Mr. Gingrich. By Monday morning, the group had reserved more than $3.4 million in advertising time in South Carolina, a huge sum of money in a state where the airwaves come cheap and the Republican presidential primary is just 11 days away. The group is planning to air portions of a movie critical of Mr. Romney’s time at Bain Capital, the private equity firm he helped found.

The last-minute injection underscores how last year’s landmark Supreme Court ruling on campaign finance has made it possible for a wealthy individual to influence an election. Mr. Adelson’s contribution to the super PAC is 1,000 times the $5,000 he could legally give directly to Mr. Gingrich’s campaign this year.

Several people with knowledge of Mr. Adelson’s decision to donate to Winning Our Future said that it was born out of a two-decade friendship with Mr. Gingrich, his advocacy on behalf of Israel and his turbulent months as a presidential candidate.

“His friend needed his help,” said a close associate of both men, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid drawing Mr. Adelson’s ire. “It’s more than anything else a loyalty thing. And he believes strongly in his platform and in Newt’s candidacy.”

THE DAY’S TOP POLITICAL STORY- WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF BILL DALEY IS STEPPING DOWN-
from National Journal’s George Condon, Jr. at The White House-

“President Obama promised on Monday that the White House will “not miss a beat” even though he was taken by surprise by the resignation of Chief of Staff William Daley and has had to turn to his third person in the post at the beginning of a critical election year.

To replace Daley, the president turned to another Washington veteran, Jack Lew. Lew is the current director of the White House Office of Management and Budget and previously served as a top deputy to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. He also served as an adviser to President Bill Clinton.

“Obviously, this was not easy news to hear,” the president said in the State Dining Room, flanked on each side by Daley and Lew. “And I didn’t accept Bill’s decision right away. In fact, I asked him to take a couple of days to make sure that he was sure about this. But in the end, the pull of the hometown we both love, a city that’s been synonymous with the Daley family for generations, was too great.”

Daley will become a co-chair of the President’s re-election campaign.

WALL STREET TODAY- from CNBC- “Stocks Eek Out a Gain Ahead of Earnings”

• DOW up 33
• NASDAQ up 3
• S&P 500 up 3

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW FOR TOMORROW

VOTING HOURS: Polls open at 7am ET and close in most places, including Manchester, at 7pm. The last polls in the state close at 8pm. That’s the earliest time the networks will make a projection. [and exit polls could provide enough information to make a projection at poll closing time tomorrow].

DIXVILLE NOTCH, NEW HAMPSHIRE HOLDS THE FIRST VOTES OF THE ELECTION, just past midnight ET tonight.

TURNOUT EXPECTATION: 250,000 for the Republican Primary and 75,000 for the Democratic Primary (President Obama is on the ballot uncontested), per the Secretary of State

INDEPENDENTS CAN VOTE: Because New Hampshire is an “open primary”. 40% of New Hampshire’s electorate is independent.

HOW ARE THE DELEGATES AWARDED: Tomorrow’s primary is the first time delegates will be awarded towards the Republican Nomination. Iowa’s caucuses last week were non-binding. They will hold a binding contest later this year to formally apportion delegates. 12 delegates are at stake tomorrow. Ordinarily, NH would have 23 delegates but the state is being penalized by the Republican Party for holding its primary in January, earlier than the official rules allow. Delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate attracting at least 10% of the vote.

WHAT’S NEXT? Two debates in South Carolina next week (Monday and Thursday), ahead of the South Carolina Primary on Saturday January 21st. Then comes the Florida Primary on Tuesday January 31st. That Saturday, February 4th, Nevada holds its caucuses and Maine begins their multi-day caucus. Super Tuesday is on March 6th. The earliest a candidate is likely to have a statistical “hold” on the nomination is on March 20th, after the Illinois Primary.

THREE FAST FACTS ABOUT NEW HAMPSHIRE:

In the last 25 years, only one candidate not named Bush or McCain has won the New Hampshire Republican primary: Pat Buchanan (1996).

And since 1952, no Republican presidential candidate has gone on to win his party’s nomination without finishing either first or second in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire holds more regular statewide and local elections more frequently than any other state in the United States.

2008 NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY RESULTS

John McCain 37.0%
Mitt Romney 31.6%
Mike Huckabee 11.2%
Rudy Giuliani 8.5%
Ron Paul 7.7%
Fred Thompson 1.2%
Turnout: 239,793

THE EVENING REPORT will publish a special post-primary edition tomorow night after the winner is known. Last Tuesday, our post-caucus edition was sent at 12:04am ET.